Learn What is PULLBACK and WHY It is Important For TRADING
In the today's post, we will discuss the essential element of price action trading - a pullback.
There are two types of a price action leg of a move: impulse leg and pullback.
Impulse leg is a strong bullish/bearish movement that determines the market sentiment and trend.
A pullback is the movement WITHIN the impulse.
The impulse leg has the level of its high and the level of its low.
If the impulse leg is bearish , a pullback initiates from its low and should complete strictly BELOW its high.
If the impulse leg is bullish , a pullback movement starts from its high and should end ABOVE its low.
Simply put, a pullback is a correctional movement within the impulse.
It occurs when the market becomes overbought/oversold after a strong movement in a bullish/bearish trend.
Here is the example of pullback on EURJPY pair.
The market is trading in a strong bullish trend. After a completion of each bullish impulse, the market retraces and completes the correctional movements strictly within the ranges of the impulses.
Here are 3 main reasons why pullbacks are important:
1. Trend confirmation
If the price keeps forming pullbacks after bullish impulses, it confirms that the market is in a bullish bearish trend.
While, a formation of pullbacks after bearish legs confirms that the market is trading in a downtrend.
Here is the example how bearish impulses and pullbacks confirm a healthy bearish trend on WTI Crude Oil.
2. Entry points
Pullbacks provide safe entry points for perfect trend-following opportunities.
Traders can look for pullbacks to key support/resistances, trend lines, moving averages or Fibonacci levels, etc. for shorting/buying the market.
Take a look how a simple rising trend line could be applied for trend-following trading on EURNZD.
3. Risk management
By waiting for a pullback, traders can get better reward to risk ratio for their trades as they can set tighter stop loss and bigger take profit.
Take a look at these 2 trades on Bitcoin. On the left, a trader took a trade immediately after a breakout, while on the right, one opened a trade on a pullback.
Patience gave a pullback trader much better reward to risk ratio with the same target and take profit level as a breakout trader.
Pullback is a temporary correction that often occurs after a significant movement. Remember that pullbacks do not guarantee the trend continuation and can easily turn into reversal moves. However, a combination of pullback and other technical tools and techniques can provide great trading opportunities.
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LTC Prepares to Break the CycleThis is LTC on the daily
After the bear market bottom in June 2022, LTC had three golden crosses, each followed by a rally into the 0.786 Fib level.
To be fair, last time price broke above that resistance, but got pushed back — like everything else — by the macro storms earlier this year.
Now we’re approaching another golden cross, but the setup feels different:
1. Price is already holding above 0.786, at least for now.
2. Macro looks calmer, with crypto gaining favorable attention from the SEC, and rate cuts becoming a matter of when, not if.
Putting these together, I lean bullish on LTC price action going forward.
Whatever happens next — we’ll be here to watch it unfold.
Always take profits and manage risk.
Interaction is welcome.
Gold prices are under pressure, focusing on the Fed stormGold prices are under pressure, focusing on the Fed storm
Weekly gold price report: The rebound of the US dollar suppresses precious metals, and the market focuses on the Fed's policies and trade negotiations
Market review
On Friday (July 26), the international gold price was under pressure to fall, with spot gold falling 0.9% to $3,336.01/ounce, and COMEX gold futures closing down 1.1% to $3,335.6/ounce. The US dollar index rebounded from a low of more than two weeks, and the progress in US-EU trade negotiations weakened the demand for safe havens, which jointly suppressed the performance of precious metals.
Analysis of core influencing factors
The US dollar and trade situation
The US-EU trade agreement negotiations have entered a critical stage. The EU said that "the agreement is just around the corner", but member states still approved the potential counter-tariff plan. US President Trump said that he will negotiate with the EU on Sunday, with a probability of 50%. If the agreement is implemented, it may further suppress the safe-haven properties of gold.
The recent trade agreement between Japan and the United States also boosted market risk appetite, and funds flowed to risky assets.
Fed policy expectations
Despite the resilience of the US labor market (initial jobless claims fell to 217,000 last week, the sixth consecutive week of decline), the market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting.
Trump has recently pressured the Fed to cut interest rates and even made a rare visit to the Fed headquarters, sparking discussions on policy independence. Some analysts believe that if inflationary pressures ease, the Fed may release dovish signals in the second half of the year.
Fund positions and central bank demand
As of the week of July 22, hedge funds' net long positions in gold increased to 170,868 contracts, the highest level since April, reflecting the market's long-term concerns about trade tensions.
Central bank gold purchase demand still provides structural support for gold prices.
Geopolitical dynamics
Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Hamas said that the ceasefire negotiations have made progress, but the US statement caused a surprise, and the progress of subsequent negotiations may affect market sentiment.
Russia-Ukraine situation: Turkey coordinates all parties to hold a leaders' summit in Turkey. Russia and Ukraine have agreed in principle to meet, and potential peace plans may reduce the safe-haven premium.
Outlook for the future
Key short-term events:
US/EU/China trade negotiations: If progress is optimistic, gold prices may fall to the support level of $3,300/ounce.
Federal Reserve July resolution: Pay attention to the policy statement's hints on the path of interest rate cuts and the Fed's response to political pressure.
US non-farm data: If the employment data is strong, it may strengthen the expectation of "higher for longer" interest rates.
Technical aspect: Near $3,300/ounce may attract buying, but breaking through the previous high requires clearer signals of monetary policy shift.
Risk warning: Repeated trade negotiations, escalating geopolitical conflicts or unexpectedly dovish Fed may reverse the decline in gold prices.
The biggest cup&handle of all times: silver targets $50The data suggests a cup&handle:
Cup was between 1980-2011
Handle is still in progress and probably may finish by 2025 or earlier.
For the short run: a re-test of low re-accumulation range of $23 can be seen.
The next mid-term target will be $25.
Final target will be $50.
KERNELUSDT Forming Falling WedgeKERNELUSDT has recently completed a significant technical breakout from a well-defined falling wedge pattern, which is known in crypto trading for its strong bullish implications. The asset had been consolidating within this wedge for weeks, forming a base in the demand zone highlighted in the pink region on the chart. Now, after gaining enough strength and momentum, it has broken through resistance with solid bullish candles, signaling the start of a potential parabolic move.
Volume confirmation during the breakout phase is notable—indicating real buying interest rather than a false breakout. Based on this breakout and the current momentum, the expected gain is projected between 170% to 180%+, and the measured move target points toward the $0.33–$0.34 region. KERNELUSDT’s price action has shifted from accumulation to expansion, often the most profitable phase for trend traders. With higher highs and higher lows starting to form, bulls are in clear control.
In addition to the technical pattern, KERNEL appears to be attracting attention from investors, potentially due to its tokenomics, project fundamentals, or upcoming developments. Traders looking for high-reward opportunities with favorable entry points may find this setup ideal, particularly with the recent retest of the breakout zone acting as confirmation. If momentum continues, this rally could easily extend beyond the projected zone.
This is a textbook example of a reversal structure evolving into an explosive breakout. KERNELUSDT is now trending upward strongly, and staying updated on volume surges and any pullbacks to the breakout zone can help traders ride the wave efficiently. The crypto market rewards breakout traders when strong technicals align with market sentiment—and this is one of those moments.
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Weekly Volatility ReadGood Evening --🌗 🌕🌓
I hope everyone is having a relaxing weekend with friends and family alike because soon we will be in the thick of the price action again -- and it may get spicy! Let't us dive in as we review what happened last week and we look towards the next to trade range or observe.
The CBOE:SPX opened the week fairly slow at $6,193.18 and increased throughout the week wicking up to a new ATH of $6,315.61 only to close the week off at $6,267.28 -- This leaves the IM on the week +$83.10. This closest respects the quarterly implied range that was a 'strength of IV' of 129.30%.
Now looking towards this next week we have extremely low HV across the board in the broader markets. CBOE:SPX IV (13.14%) is trending 32% IV percentile on the year -- premium is seemingly cheap. HV10 (6.97%) is coiled within 97.67% of it's sliding yearly lows, showing a need for short-term volatility to consolidate. HV21 (7.78%) is even more coiled to it's yearly low at 98.76% respectively. Both are roughly mid 50% 'strength to IV' as IV predicts twice the potential move next week.
Lastly, HV63 our quarterly trending values is showing a 'strength of IV' at only 108% but, could be supporting the thesis IV is projecting, as we do need a TVC:VIX pop OR time-wise consolidation. 📈📉
I hope everyone has a great week trading ranges and I will see you next weekend!
Cheers! 🍻🍻🍻
BULLISH H4 MOMENTUM ACTIVATED...?📊 Pattern & Structure:
The chart shows a downward channel (falling wedge) pattern that has recently been broken to the upside, indicating a bullish breakout.
The breakout is clean, with a sharp upward move, confirming the reversal from the bearish trend.
🔍 Key Levels Identified:
Support Zone:
142.284 – 141.790 (marked with an orange box)
This zone acted as a strong demand/support area.
Price bounced strongly after reaching this zone.
Immediate Resistance Levels:
145.799 – Near-term resistance.
147.000 – 147.629 – Key resistance zone (highlighted with a red horizontal line).
148.725 – Final bullish target/resistance on the chart.
📈 Bullish Scenario (highlighted with arrows and wave projection):
Price has broken out of the falling wedge, retested, and is pushing higher.
Target zone: 147.000–148.725.
The chart suggests a bullish projection, with further gains expected if the price sustains above 145.47.
EUR-GBP Swing Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-GBP keeps growing in
A strong uptrend but the pair
Is locally overbought so after
The price hits a horizontal
Resistance level of 0.8764
We will be expecting a
Local bearish correction
Sell!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
$TEM – Breakout Imminent After Accumulation? NASDAQ:TEM – Breakout Imminent After Accumulation? 📈
Tempus ( NASDAQ:TEM ) is flashing strong bullish signals backed by smart money and confirmed option flow.
🔹 Technical Picture (1H)
Trendline just broken to the upside
Clean break of structure (BOS) after sweep of June/July lows
Volume spike + EMA realignment confirms momentum shift
Targeting the $66–$70 equilibrium zone short-term
High timeframe liquidity sits above $74 — a magnet if momentum continues
🔹 Options Flow (July 23 @ 6:54 AM)
$56K call sweep for Aug 1 $66C (To Open)
Smart money positioning for a rapid move higher — not retail-driven
🔹 VolanX Bias: Bullish
Long trigger confirmed on trendline break and BOS
Risk: < $59.50
PT1: $66
PT2: $70
PT3: $74+ (if volume sustains)
This is now on VolanX watchlist as a potential stealth breakout fueled by institutional flow.
⚠️ For educational purposes. Not financial advice. VolanX Protocol active.
#TEM #Breakout #OptionsFlow #SmartMoney #VolanX #TradingView
ETH is about to go parabolicDid people realise that Ethereum hit its historical lows on the monthly RSI in April this year? Some people are laughing at the idea of a target of 20k this year, but that would only represent a 20x increase from 2022 to 2025. In contrast, Ethereum achieved a 60x increase from 2018 to 2021.
Teach me to fish, don’t hand me the catch.
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We’re not here to hand you quick wins—we’re here to equip you with the tools, mindset, and precision to master the art of **technical analysis**.
📚 **Follow Us** as we unlock proven strategies, crafted through years of experience and sharpened by real market conditions.
💼 **What You'll Get:**
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NASDAQ Bulls Pushing – Will 20,347 Hold or Break?Price is currently approaching the 20,347 🔼 resistance zone after a strong bullish rally from the 19,150 🔽 support level. The market structure remains bullish with consistent higher highs and higher lows, showing strong buyer momentum.
Support at: 19,670 🔽, 19,150 🔽, 18,500 🔽, 17,600 🔽
Resistance at: 20,347 🔼, 20,600 🔼, 21,000 🔼
Bias:
🔼 Bullish: If price breaks and holds above 20,347 🔼, we could see a continuation toward 20,600 and 21,000.
🔽 Bearish: A strong rejection from 20,347 🔼 could send price back down toward 19,670 and 19,150 for a retest.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Dollar Index Dips – All Eyes on 97.600?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading just below the 100.000 🔼 resistance area, following a series of lower highs and lower lows that reflect a clear bearish trend. Price is now approaching the 97.600 🔽 level, which has previously acted as a key turning point and could influence the next directional move.
Support at: 97.600 🔽
Resistance at: 100.000 🔼, 101.500 🔼, 102.812 🔼, 104.223 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔽 Bearish: The trend remains bearish while price stays below 100.000. A break below 97.600 may lead to further downside continuation.
🔼 Bullish: A bounce from 97.600 followed by a move back above 100.000 could open the door for a recovery toward 101.500.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
US Equities Index – Retesting Breakout Zone After Strong RallyUS Equities Index recently broke through the 4,760.00 resistance zone with strength, but price is now pulling back slightly, possibly retesting this level as new support. The projected upside targets the 4,876.76 zone, which remains the next key resistance.
Support at: 4,760.00 🔽 | 4,650.00 🔽
Resistance at: 4,876.76 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Holding above 4,760.00 confirms breakout structure with potential continuation toward 4,876.76.
🔽 Bearish: A breakdown back below 4,760.00 could shift bias short-term toward 4,650.00 and 4,555.95.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
NI225: Move Down Expected! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse NI225 together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 41,456.23 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 40,954.70 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
American Exceptionalism - The End of an Era "The Eagle and the Fall"
O say can you see, from the towers so high,
A gleam in the steel and a spark in the sky?
The factories roared and the railways sang,
And liberty’s bell through the cities rang.
We rose from the soil, rough-handed and proud,
With faith forged in steel and heads unbowed.
The eagle soared on ambition's flame,
Each man in his dream, each street with a name.
From sea unto sea, we built and we bought,
In ticker tape winds, prosperity caught.
The market climbed like a hymn on the air—
A temple of glass, reflecting a prayer.
But greed wore a mask and danced in disguise,
A siren’s whisper in financier’s eyes.
And credit, like wine, flowed too freely at last,
While whispers of worry were buried in glass.
October arrived like a thief in the mist,
And struck with a silence too brutal to miss.
A breath, then a cry, then a plunge in the floor—
The numbers all bleeding, the dream no more.
Yet still in the ruins, beneath ash and flame,
Burned a stubborn belief in America’s name.
For even when mountains of fortune did crash,
The stars and the stripes held fast through the ash.
O nation of daring, of promise and pain,
You rise not once, but again and again.
Through boom and through bust, your story is spun—
A land still unfinished, still chasing the sun.
USOIL My Opinion! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for USOIL below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 65.00
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 65.50
Recommended Stop Loss - 64.75
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
#KDA/USDT Stay Adaptive ?#KDA
The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is on its way to breaking it strongly upwards and retesting it.
We have a bounce from the lower boundary of the descending channel. This support is at 0.4260.
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, supporting the upside.
There is a major support area in green at 0.4186, which represents a strong basis for the upside.
Don't forget a simple thing: ease and capital.
When you reach the first target, save some money and then change your stop-loss order to an entry order.
For inquiries, please leave a comment.
We have a trend to hold above the 100 Moving Average.
Entry price: 0.4530
First target: 0.4625
Second target: 0.4754
Third target: 0.4932
Don't forget a simple thing: ease and capital.
When you reach the first target, save some money and then change your stop-loss order to an entry order.
For inquiries, please leave a comment.
Thank you.
USOIL: Next Move Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 65.029 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 65.579.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️