MARKETS week ahead: May 5 – 11Last week in the news
Two major events during the previous week shaped the market sentiment. One is related to the Chinese government which noted a consideration to start the negotiations in order to relax currently imposed trade tariffs, while the other is related to stronger than expected US jobs market. The US equities finished the week higher, where S&P 500 closed the week at the level of 5.686. The US Dollar also gained strength on positive news. Inversely, the price of gold was traded at the lower grounds, ending the week at the level of $3.240. The US 10Y yields reacted on a strong jobs data, diminishing the potential recession in the US, where yields closed the week at the level of 4,30%. BTC was also among weekly gainers, where the level of $ 98K has been tested.
The previous week was full of currently important US macro data, which brought back higher volatility on financial markets. The week started with jobs opening data. Posted JOLTs showed 7.192M jobs open in March, which was modestly below market expectation of 7,48M. Fed's favourite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index, was standing at the level of 0% in March, same as core PCE. On a yearly basis, the PCE was 2,3%. However, the star of the week were the Non-farm payrolls, which increased by 177K in April, which was much better than anticipated 130K. This figure brought a relief to market participants, as it seems that the US economy is not entering into a recession. On the opposite side are some analysts who are noting that it is too early in time for trade tariffs to be reflected on the US economy and jobs data. Still, the GDP Growth rate preliminary for Q1 came as a surprise at the level of -0,3% for the quarter. The market was expecting to see the figure of +0,3%. Analysts are in consensus that such a surprising drop in the output of the US economy is a reflection of trade tariffs imposed by the US Administration in the previous period.
A lot of investors' attention took the Assembly meeting of Berkshire Hataway, held on Saturday in Omaha, US. As announced, its founder and CEO Warren Buffet will step down from his CEO position as of the end of this year. His place will take Greg Abel, vice chairman of Berkshire Hataway for non-insurance operations. Reflecting on trade tariffs, Warren Buffet strongly criticized, noting “Trade tariffs are an act of war … trade should not be a weapon”.
The FOMC meeting is scheduled to take place on May 6-7th. This meeting will be closely watched by markets, as it is expected that the Fed will provide their current view on the current state of the economy as well as potential negative implications of imposed trade tariffs. As per current market expectations, based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the first rate cut during this year is postponed for July this year, amid currently strong jobs data.
CRYPTO MARKET
The crypto market had another relatively positive week. News related to the potential relaxation of the US-China trade tariffs as well as better than expected US jobs data, left their positive market also on the crypto market. BTC was for one more time in the focus of market participants, however, the majority of other coins was not left behind. Total crypto market capitalization gained 1% compared to the week before, adding $35B to its total market cap. Daily trading volumes were modestly decreased to the level of $106B on a daily basis, from $166B traded the week before. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at -9%, with $283B outflow of funds.
The leader of the market during the previous week was BTC. This coin managed to gain more than 2% on a weekly basis, adding total $ 39B to its market cap, but also to the total capitalization of the crypto market. ETH also had a relatively good week, considering gain of 1,15% in value adding $2,5B to its market cap. One of the significant weekly gainers was Monero, with a surge in market cap of 24%, adding $ 1B to the total value. On the opposite side were coins which did not manage to finish the week in green. Market favourite Solana lost 1% in value on a weekly basis, while BNB was last traded down by 1,4%. This week Uniswap ended with a loss of 11,8% on a weekly basis, while Algorand and Filecoin were traded down by around 8%.
There has been sort of increased activity when coins in circulation are in question. Filecoin managed to increase its coins in circulation by 0,4%. IOTAs total coins on the market surged by 0,5%, while Stellar and DASH marked an increase of 0,2%, same as XRP. This week Maker decreased its number of circulating coins by 1,4%.
Crypto futures market
The positive market sentiment continues to be reflected in the crypto futures. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded higher during the previous week.
BTC futures gained in value around 1,5% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December this year managed to pass the $100K level, ending the week at $101.305. At the same time, futures maturing in December next year closed the week at $107.390.
ETH futures were traded higher by around 2% for all maturities. December 2026 ended the week at $1.938. Futures maturing a year later managed to pass the $2K level, closing the week at $2.084.
