USD/MXN Defends Rebound from July LowUSD/MXN seems to be defending the rebound from the July low (18.5116) as it attempts to retrace the decline from earlier this week.
A breach above 18.7780 (50% Fibonacci retracement) may push USD/MXN toward the monthly high (18.9810), with a move/close above 19.3720 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) opening up the June high (19.4441).
Next area of interest comes in around 19.6280 (23.6% Fibonacci extension), but USD/MXN may struggle to retain the rebound from the July low (18.5116) should it track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (18.8511).
A move/close below the 18.5090 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 18.6330 (50% Fibonacci retracement) zone brings the August 2024 low (18.4291) on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around 18.1840 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
Community ideas
Mastering One Good Trade for New York Session📍 Trade Overview
Asset: Nasdaq 100 E-Mini Futures
Direction: Short
Entry Price : 23607.0
Exit Price : 23512.85
Date of Trade : 08/07/2025
R:R Target : 5.26
Result: Win
Timeframe: 15min
🧠 Trade Thesis
Behavior of price was the key to this trade around the specific time of New York open along with sweeping the London high combined with an ADR pivot level and a rise in Asian and London for the reversal in New York.
📊 Technical Breakdown
Structure: (M formation, False Breakout, double top)
Key Levels: (HOD supply/demand, pushed above London high, directly at ADR Pivot Level)
Indicators (if any): (e.g., TDI, EMA confluence, RSI divergence)
Volume Behavior: (3 pushes into the high for NY open, stop hunt, bearish engulfing on the 15 and 5 minute)
⏱️ Timing
Session: NYC
Minute of Entry: Early in the session / 10:10amEST
Context in Session: Breakout window, equities hour
🧩 Execution Details
Entry Trigger: (Candle close confirmation with a bearish engulfing)
Stop Loss Location: (Above wick of 5 minute entry candle)
Target: (ADR / measured move)
🔍 Post-Trade Analysis
What went right?
Price instantly rejected the level it was at and reached target fairly quickly.
What could have been better?
Could have taken YM for a better setup instead.
Would I take this trade again? Yes. A+ setup but not A+++ due to it not being at a major level like the other indices were.
GBPUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W32 | D8 | Y25📊 GBPUSD – DAILY FORECAST
Q3 | W32 | D8 | Y25
Daily Forecast 🔍📅
Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈
Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭.
It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias.
This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us.
📈 Risk Management Protocols
🔑 Core principles:
Max 1% risk per trade
Only execute at pre-identified levels
Use alerts, not emotion
Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2
🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk.
🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight
"Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants."
Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work.
FX:GBPUSD
BABA 1M: Chinese favorite rising againTechnical setup:
Breakout from long-term triangle
Retest of trendline confirmed
Price holds above Fibo 0.236 (116.94)
First resistance: 151.85
Fibo targets:
→ 0.5: 187.82
→ 0.618: 219.50
Trade plan:
→ Hold after successful retest
→ Add on dips to 116–118
Targets: 151.85 / 187.82 / 219.50
Fundamentals:
Alibaba is restructuring around cloud and AI. Regulatory pressure from China is easing, and earnings are stabilizing. Buybacks and renewed institutional interest provide strong mid-term support.
Conclusion:
Alibaba may fall seven times, but rise eight — especially when Fibo and price action agree.
Bullish reversal?USD/JPY is reacting off the support level which is an overlap that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 147.06
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 145.83
Why we like it:
There is a multi-swing low support.
Take profit: 148.95
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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NZDUSD SHORTsMarket structure bearish on HTFs DW
Entry on Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at At AOi
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection at AOi
Daily EMA retest
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 0.59500
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 3.67
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Nifty is bullish but the concern is...Total Volume and closing were strong today — that’s a good sign.
But the only concern is that sellers' volume was 218 million more than buyers. That’s a big gap and something we can’t ignore.
NSE:NIFTY Pivot is at 24,524, and Pivot Percentile is 0.29% — that’s slightly high, so expect volatility.
If Nifty opens with a gap down and then sustains above the Pivot for 1 hour, we might see a good upside, and it would be worth chasing.
A gap-up open won’t be ideal — a controlled open near the pivot is better.
Apart from sellers’ volume, everything else looks bullish.
Even the options data is pointing toward a move up, with a target zone near 24,800.
So, my view for tomorrow is cautiously bullish.
NSE:BANKNIFTY is looking much stronger than Nifty.
This time, the rally might be led by NSE:CNXPSUBANK .
- Support: 55,294
- Resistance: 55,650
If BankNifty moves, chances are Nifty will follow as well.
Top Sectors to Watch:
NSE:CNXIT
NSE:CNXPHARMA
If you remember, I had mentioned earlier — this time when the market starts bouncing back from the bottom, IT sector will be the first to run.
That’s all for today.
Plan your trade and Trade your plan.
Take care. Have a profitable tomorrow.
Nq & Es Key Levels & Scenarios 07-08-2025It’s clear that we’re currently operating within a premium zone of the range. The directional bias remains bullish, but I’m anticipating the potential for a short-term short setup around the 09:30 AM New York open, allowing for a retracement before continuation higher.
I will not look for long setups unless price trades back into a discount zone, or at the very least, rebalances toward the equilibrium (50% of the dealing range). If price continues to rally without offering such a pullback, I’m fully prepared to stay sidelined — discipline over FOMO.
Wishing everyone clean, high-probability setups today.
FTNT Long-Term Support & SetupWith Fortinet (FTNT) recently reporting strong Q2 earnings and beating expectations on both top and bottom lines, the stock is seeing a sharp sell-off. Driven by macro uncertainty, rising competition, and weaker Q3 guidance, this move was anticipated for months as FTNT has been trading at the top of a well-defined trend channel, and we've been waiting for a pullback to key long-term support levels.
Fortinet's Fundamentals:
With the semiconductor rally stealing the headlines, the demand for cybersecurity is only rising in tandem with the digital transformation and AI adoption. FTNT remains at the top when it comes to firewalls and network security with consistently high margins, strong FCF, and revenue. Long-term, FTNT is a strong player, and the fundamentals support higher valuations.
This quarter:
- Revenue $1.63B (+13.6% YoY)
- EPS $0.57 (+16.3% YoY)
- Cash From Operations 451.9M (+32% YoY)
- Gross Margin 80.7%
- ROIC 37.5%
This pullback was expected at some point this year and represents a strong opportunity to capitalize on increased demand for a top cybersecurity firm.
On the monthly chart, FTNT has now retracted to its major technical area near $70 - an area of strong historical support and key moving averages:
- The 50-month SMA sits around $69.4, an area where high volume-by-price is elevated, showing high interest starting around the $69.6 level.
- FTNT has respected the 50 SMA numerous times over the last several years, typically at the bottom of this trend channel.
The weekly & daily charts show a similar story:
- The 200-week SMA also aligns ~ $69.4, reinforcing the idea of a strong long-term support to be tested.
- The 1000-day SMA around the same zone has acted as another reliable bounce level - notably in November 2023 and July 2024, where the stock launched to all-time highs after the bounce.
Trade Setup:
- Entry: Initiate position ~ $69-70
- Add to position ~ $65 (a multi-year trendline support & final buy zone)
- Target 1: $96 to fully close the gap following recent earnings
- Target 2: $110+ (prior highs and back to the top of the trendline resistance)
Swing trade, holding for 4-12 months depending on momentum and shifting macro environment
Bitcoin Bullish Flag Pattern Analysis & $140,000 Target🚩 Bullish Flag Pattern Formation
Bitcoin is currently forming a bullish flag pattern on the 4-hour chart. This pattern typically appears after a sharp upward move and represents a short-term consolidation within a descending channel. It usually signals a continuation of the strong bullish trend. Currently, the price is oscillating between the upper and lower boundaries of this channel, poised for a potential breakout.
⏳ Duration of the Correction Phase
The correction inside this channel has lasted from July 14 to August 8, 2025, spanning approximately 25 days. This relatively long consolidation period indicates a deep stabilization phase, allowing the market to gather momentum for the next upward wave. During this time, Bitcoin traded in a tight range between the channel’s support and resistance levels.
⚠️ Critical Resistance at $120,000
The key resistance level to watch is $120,000. If Bitcoin can break this level decisively with strong volume and confirming candles, the bullish flag pattern will be validated, signaling a continuation of the upward trend. This breakout point is considered an optimal entry for new long positions.
🎯 Price Target at $140,000
The target price derived from the bullish flag pattern, calculated by measuring the flagpole and projecting it from the breakout point, is around $140,000. This represents approximately a 20% gain from the breakout and may serve as a significant psychological resistance level.
DXY: Absolute Price Collapse Ahead! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 97.871 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GBPJPY - at ResistanceSterling Yen long term was consolidating since Aug 24.
Now the price reached the FR 127.2 and respected it as Resistance.
On Aug 1st the support at FR 100 was broken. Yet, price crossed down SMA200 (4H)
Now price is testing the SMA200 from below, which is aligned with FR 61.8 of the latest impulse down.
If the Resistance at 198 holds, price may commence a longer correction, potentially down to 194 or even to 190.
Just my humble opinion.
Gold completing a 4-month Bull Flag consolidation, 3800 next! We can see the classic bull flag consolidation pattern which has been going on ever since the stock market decided to go on a rager!
Even with that going on, smart money continues to buy gold on the dips as you should too.
Once Trump installs a phoney new BLS chief and moves to pressure the Fed by nominating a new governor after Kugler's departure the message will be clear:
1) the BLS and the Fed are no longer independent
2) the US dollar is going to tank
3) Gold is going to boom!
Good luck and happy trading!
Gold Trading Strategy August 8XAUUSD – Bullish Breakout from Triangle Pattern
Gold has officially broken the upper boundary of the triangle accumulation pattern, confirming the continuation of the uptrend. This bullish momentum is heading directly towards the 3430 area, and if the buying pressure is maintained, the 3445 level is completely within reach.
Today is Friday, the closing day of the weekly candle, so the oscillation amplitude is usually stronger and the price can easily approach new peaks. Observation shows that the buying pressure in the US session has been maintained continuously in recent days - this supports the strategy of BUYing now and holding until the US market opens.
Support zone: 3385 – 3365 – 3333
Resistance zone: 3419 – 3431 – 3445
ADAUSDT to touch 0.7800COINBASE:ADAUSDT Long trade, with my back testing of this strategy, ADAUSDT need to touch 0.7800
This is good trade, don't overload your risk like Greedy, be disciplined trader.
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
ETH | Ethereum Game Plan - Swing Long IdeaETH | Ethereum Game Plan - Swing Long Idea
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains bullish, supported by expectations of a 0.25% rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The weakening USD and rising risk appetite across global markets are favoring crypto assets in particular.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price swept the range low (Weekly Fair Value Gap), resulting in a deviation.
It then aggressively reclaimed higher levels and closed above key resistance.
A 12H demand zone was formed during this move.
We’re now seeing a retracement towards that 12H demand zone.
📌 Game Plan
I’m looking for price to hit the 12H demand zone at $3,530 and show a strong reaction.
This level is also below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, placing it in the discount area — an ideal entry zone for me.
🎯 Setup Trigger
After price taps the demand zone, I want to see a 1H–4H bullish break of structure to confirm the reversal before entering.
📋 Trade Management
Stoploss: Below 1H–4H swing low
Targets:
• TP1: $3,872
• TP2: $4,090
I’ll trail my stop to lock in profits aggressively as price moves in my favor.
💬 Like, follow, and comment if this breakdown supports your trading!
More setups and market insights coming soon — stay connected!
GOLD - Cut n Reverse Area? Holds or not??#GOLD... market perfect moved as per our analysis and now m
It's just reached at his current ultimate area that is 3404
Keep close with and holding of that area means drop...
NOTE: we will cut n reverse above althat area on confirmation.
Good luck
Trade wisely