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Next Possible Direction For FCPOAs expected market has moved towards the north and seems to have exhausted its uptrend momentum at least for now. Correction is now more likely to occur after 5 waves move have already unfolded in the wave 3 Primary. Given that correction in the Primary Wave 2 is a Zig Zag, the rule of alternation could be at play here for Primary Wave 4 - most probably flat correction, triangle or double three. I'm inclined into assuming that it is flat correction. A break below 3848 would invalidate this assumption and suggest another wave is unfolding. Disclaimer: This is NOT buy/ sell call but for learning purposes.
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by faridah_sanny
Crude Palm Oil’s underperformanceThis chart caught our attention recently. The Crude Palm Oil – Soybean Oil Spread (in USD per Metric Ton) is trading close to an all-time high now. This spells trading opportunity for us as Palm Oil and Soybean Oil are generally considered substitute products, which means, at a large enough price difference, buyers may hop over to buy the cheaper one. Eventually closing the price gap back to its historical mean. Further comparison of Palm Oil against its other substitute, the European Low Sulphur Gasoil Financial Futures, also shows the spread between these products near the high. A price comparison among the 3 products, Palm Oil, European low Sulphur Gasoil and Soybean Oil underscores this price disparity even clearer. The prices of the 3 products have generally trended together, up until July 2022 when Palm Oil started to underperform. Stepping back into the macro side, some potential tailwinds for Crude Palm Oil include; 1) The reopening of China, which would increase the demand for palm oil from the world’s 2nd largest importer of the product. 2) Biofuel Mandates, which would put higher demand pressure on Palm Oil. 3) Slowing production growth in palm oil could lead to supply-demand imbalances, pushing palm oil higher as supply falters. One way to trade this price divergence would be to short the Soybean Oil – Palm Oil spread. This trade can be set up by selling 1 Soybean Oil Futures and buying 1 USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Futures. However, do note that in such a set-up, the position is not fully ‘hedged’ as the contract units are different, 1 Soybean Oil Futures has a contract unit of 60,000 Pounds (~27.21 metric tons) while 1 Crude Palm Oil Futures is for 25 metric tons. Another option would be to trade the exchange listed Crude Palm Oil – European Low Sulphur Gasoil Spread (POG) which handles the construction of the spread and is financially settled, removing delivery risk. While it’s hard to ‘call’ the top, such price divergence provides interesting opportunities that we leverage if risk is managed properly. These trade set-ups allow us to express the view that Palm Oil’s underperformance will be closed, either by Palm oil catching up with its substitutes or if its substitutes fall in prices. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Sources www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com jakartaglobe.id oec.world
CME:CPO1!Short
by inspirante
Direction of FCPO #5As you guys can see, it is what we predict from previous our chart analysis. It is following the direction that I have been showed. So now lets see either the market can rebound and go up towards the strong resistance ( yellow box ) or it will continue downwards. Besides that, do not neglect that we can see there is a form of pattern have shown which is Head And Shoulder ( HNS ), same goes to this concept, have to break the neckline, and then we can make decision where is the direction of the market. We will see tomorrow to see what market brings to us.
MYX:FCPO1!
by Karkoon
FCPO - Bear taking breathAfter a series of 8th falling trading days, price of FCPO constructed a short term bullish AB=CD pattern in daily TF. It's been oversold but not in extreme way yet. Current price is hovering around 5477 (the neck line of a bigger pattern) and may have a small rebound before a continuation. May focus on the price action along with confirmation of oscillator especially the neck line region for a the 1st TP of 6070. If the price manage to piercing thru the red dash trendline, the 2nd TP would be 6512. -Signing Out-
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by FXCruZaDer82
CPO Unstoppable Rocket? Or…. Ranging?What’s other factors would continue to move palm oil prices? 1. India imports hit 12-months low on sky high prices in CPO. This may led to demand further decline as buyers are price sensitive as it relies on imports for 60% of its needs. Currently, India rely on existing stockpiles and incoming domestic rapeseed crop to meet domestic demand 2. Revision of export restriction from Indonesia as food protectionism grows. Companies need to allocate 30% of exports for home market. Government are taking steps to safeguard domestic food supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 3. Malaysia announced, the border restrictions is entering endemic phase start from 1st of April 2022 , which also means that more foreign workers arrive in May and June. 4. Soybean oil lower after USDA (United States of Department Agriculture) monthly forecasts showed world soybean supplies above expectations. 5. Declined in crude oil prices reduce demand for biodiesel blending. Technical View: 1. Again shooting star formed as profit taking after touched on historical high at 7268 which indicate sell signal. 2. Stochastic K% line is moving up in weekly and crossed up in daily chart which indicates market likely to resume its uptrend We have mixed signals this week. We expect market may move within range of 6500-7100. Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 6600 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6783 Target Profit level (support level) TP1 6417 TP2 6051 Long if stay above 7000 Target Stop Loss (support level) 6817 Target Profit level (resistance level) TP1 7183 TP2 7549 ** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK **
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
CPO Continue above 7000? Or Ready for Correction?FCPO declined by nearly 8% on last Friday and closed at 6276 as profit taking took place, but posted 2nd weekly gains after touched on historical high at 7108. So, what’s make palm oil now the costlier edible oil among the 4 major edible oils? Global commodities rallied following EU bans certain Russian banks from SWIFT bank payment system which aimed to stuttering the Russia economy and introduces further restrictions. The war expected to disrupt the processing and export of Ukraine oilseeds crops for at least 1 month and curb flow of sunflower seed to the European Union. 2. India’s reserve is facing a depletion in stocks levels with a lack of shipments of sunflower oil from the Black Sea Region. India requested Indonesia temporary reduce their biodiesel blending rules and increase the exports to mitigate disrupted supplies of sunflower oil. 3. Rising concerns on adequate palm supply levels for post-Ramadan restocking. While expectations of higher productions in coming months as high output cycle kicks in and government also announced new migrant workers to work in plantation sector capped gains. 4. Soybean oil prices closed lower as profit taking and rainfall in Brazil and Argentina eased dry weather conditions. Technical View: 1. Shooting star formed at resistance level of 7100, which indicates market losing uptrend momentum and also a reversal signal 2. Stochastic K% line is crossing down in both weekly and daily chart which indicates downtrend signal We expect market may have short term retracement with immediate support level at 5825 Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 6200 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6365 Target Profit level (support level) TP1 6035 TP2 5705 Long if stay above 6800 Target Stop Loss (support level) 6635 Target Profit level (resistance level) TP1 6965 TP2 7295 **Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks**
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
1
FCPO continue 6400 or Short Term Correction?FCPO set their biggest weekly gains in more than 9 months despite a sharp drop on Friday, as Russia’s attack on Ukraine stoked worries about global edible oil supply. I believe who traded last week hopefully you were enjoy the roller coaster ride in the market. For your information, Ukraine is a major key supplier of grains and oilseeds globally, any further threats to trade will shift demand for other vegetable oil such as SBO and CPO. As we all knew that the unresolved Ukraine crisis may further erode the supply of vegetable oil, grains, crude and natural gas due to the grain flows disruption in Black Sea export region with all transportation avenue were disrupted by military operation. Besides, India stopped buying sunflower oil following ports suspended operation on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India pivot to alternate oils could further support Malaysian palm oil and US soyoil. On the other hand, surging in COVID cases also keep palm oil prices elevated for 1H2022 as shortage of labour and supplies. Furthermore, worsening yields in Argentina and Brazil pushed importers to buy from alternative supplier. Technical View: Market uptrend remains with immediate support at 5825. Stochastic K% line is crossing down at overbought zone in both weekly and daily chart which indicates reversal signal We expect market may have short term retracement with immediate support level at 5625 Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 5885 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6023 Target Profit level (support level) TP1 5747 TP2 5471 Long if stay above 6200 Target Stop Loss (support level) 6062 Target Profit level (resistance level) TP1 6338 TP2 6614 ** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK **
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
Reversal Signs Continue in Palm Oil MarketFCPO closed higher at 5539 after gap filled at 5612 by last Friday but posted weekly losses. What were the factors that caused crude palm oil prices struggling to maintain above 5800? 1. India reduce farm infrastructure tax on CPO to 5%, which will effective until Sept 30, with the objective to increase gap between CPO and refined palm oil to benefit the domestic refining industry. 2. Uncertainties over Ukraine crisis lead market to stay vigilant on possible rising tensions. 3. Better production forecast for 1st half of Feb limited the upside of palm oil prices 4. Soybean Oil continue to move higher as concerns over weather forecast and fire incident broke in US biodiesel plant at Claypool, Indiana. Furthermore, India acquire massive purchase on soybean oil as high soybean price for local crushers to reduce output. 5. Crude Oil prices extended losses as prospects of extra supply from Iran. Weaker crude make palm less attractive option for biodiesel feedstock. 6. Near month spread widen as traders foresee East Malaysia production remains weak for Feb. Technical View: Market reversal signs remains. Gravestone doji formed in Daily Chart after market tried to move higher but sell down by the market. Stochastic K% line is crossing down at overbought zone in both weekly and daily chart We expect market may have short term retracement with immediate support level at 5350. Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 5550 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 5625 Target Profit (support level) TP1 5425 TP2 5345 TP 5245
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by happytrading96
Reversal Signs in Palm Oil Market?Market closed slightly higher at 5573 last Friday after tighter range move. Some key factors continue to weigh on palm oil prices: 1. Indonesia had expanded its export permit requirement for palm oil products where exporters must sell 20% of their exports at home and with price cap to other derivatives. This further raising fears of global supply disruptions. The regulation valid from Feb 15. 2. Latest Malaysia Palm Oil Board data showed lower inventories and production due to labor shortage and flooding; lower exports due to rising palm oil prices However, analysts’ expectations that current high price not sustainable 3. some participants expecting production to pick up in March as Malaysia Government targeting full scale reopening of international border 4. . Soybean oil continued uptrend, as LaNina brought in hot weather across key South America growing areas and strong demand on US soybean 5. Strong crude oil prices amid ongoing worries about supply disruptions from the Russia and Ukraine crisis Technical View: 1. Market uptrend paused with hanging man formed at resistance level of 5750, indicates reversal signal 2. Stochastic reached overbought level and K% line is crossing down which signalled reversal signal We expect market may have short term retracement if market unable to stay above 5500. Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 5365 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 5478 Target Profit (support level) TP1 5252 TP2 5026 Long if stay above 5685 Target Stop Loss (support level) 5572 Target Profit (resistance level) TP1 5798 TP2 6024
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96