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Parabolic

Comparison of parabolic moves in BitcoinGiven the recent parabolic move in Bitcoin, I thought I would take a look at previous parabolic moves. Disclaimer: The below is by no means an exact calculation, but more some things I noticed and wanted to share. Also, the dataset is way too small to get to any exact conclusions. Also, this is my first publication ;-) PAST I started with identifying all the parabolic moves I could find on the daily or weekly timeframes and draw best fitting arcs (yellow A-G), making sure the arcs would only move up and right (no down or left movement allowed). Then I added the measurements of the move up and the following maximum move down (white dashed arrows), giving me percentages. Now, the markets are not exact, so these measurements should me looked at in a rough way. What I first noticed, was that the bigger the parabolic movement up, the bigger the crash afterwards (percentage wise). Let's see if we can more details on that. First, I looked at A and B. They are very similar in the up move (200 vs 250%), and also quite similar in the down move (50-55% respectively). Let's just say for simplicity that a 250% parabolic up move results in a 55% down move. Then I looked at C and D. Very similar up moves (roughly around 2000%), and very similar down moves (roughly 85%). Now we get to E: the move up is only about half of A or B, and also the down move is less: about 40%. So, if the up move is twice as big (120 vs 250%), the down move is only about 15 percentage points bigger (40 vs 55%). Did I already mention that these numbers are not exact, and that I'm rounding them a lot? ;-) Now let's compare C & D with A & B: An up move of about 8x bigger (250 vs 2000%), results in a down move that is 30% percentage points bigger (85 vs 55%). Now, I looked at F, the mother of all bull markets in BTC. This curve show an increase of roughly 5500%, more than 2.5 times the increase of C & D. We don't know what the full down move is, since we're not sure the bear market is over. Now for simplicity's sake, let's just assume it is 2x the increase (way off, but this is just to illustrate an idea). So: E: 1x up move = -40% A & B: 2x up move = -55% (-15% extra) C & D: 16x up move = -85% (-30% extra; 8x compared with A & B, 16x compared with E) F: 32x up move = ? Now, looking at the above, one would conclude that the drop after F is probably larger than the drop after C or D, because the up move is also bigger. How much? Well, it's not linear and it has to be less than 100%, so let's see what we can find. I decided to plot the few datapoints we have in a graph, drawn by hand ;) To me, it looks like a parabolic curve, although more datapoints would be better. PRESENT AND FUTURE As you can see in the graph, the projection for the drop of our parabolic F move hardly fits on the graph, but the estimated drop would be something like 90-95%. I drew some orange arrows in the chart from the top of F to 1830 and 1360 levels, and those ended up being 90-93%, both likely targets (long term). We already dropped 84% to the 3000 area, which was also an area of support. Now we have started another parabolic move from 3k upwards, and as of writing we are at the 11k level. So far that is a 260% move up. Where will this move end? I decided to draw a best fit trend line (magenta) from 2012 through 2017 and right through the point where we dropped from 6k to 3k. Right now we are very close to this trend line and I think this will be big resistance, just like the diagonal trendline (in red) was when we got to 20k. If this magenta trend line happens to be the top of this parabolic move, and comparing with the previous parabolic moves, I expect a drop of about 55%. Targets of 6k (50%) and 5k (60%) are likely support areas here. Now what will happen in the future... nobody knows, but based on the parabolic curves I can see at least a bullish and a bearish scenario, assuming that we can't break the magenta trend line: BULLISH We drop about 55% from around the 11k level and stay above the green supporting trend line. This could set us up for another parabolic move, just like we got a big move F after E. This could take us to 250-500k bitcoin in a couple of years. BEARISH We drop about 55% from about the current 11k level and eventually drop below the green support line. I think it is then very likely we go to 1800-1300 levels and we'll have some more bear market for some years to come. If we happen to drop 85% from the current parabolic move (G) we end up at the 90-95% target for curve F (but that doesn't fit the idea).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sandervdberg
1
Will this key fractal play out and end the parabolic run for BTCI've tried to make this as visually comprehensible as possible by tracking each move, thus giving us a possibility of a third fractal playing out to end our parabolic run. As noted in the chart, we may not compete the entire fractal and end midway. Each fractal seems to exist within it's own channel before ascending out of it into a new one. That would make sense as a parabola. I've given two scenarios, one in blue (breaking into another channel) the other in magenta (staying in current channel). Also the 4 hr ichimoku cloud JUST flipped green giving us the go as we have established good support below us for several weeks now. Let's see how this plays out.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BTCilyKandinsky
4
UNREAL BITCOIN in EVEN MORE Crazy Bull Run Than 2017! Must SEE!The D4-Army Will Continue to grow - We will be bigger for every day like Bitcoin! We are so far 27,000 followers, and D4rkEnergY Loves All of You! Didnt I promise you, that this YEAR is OUR Year? Trust D4rkEnergY and he WILL Make You Money - He will Show you the Way. He will tell YOU what to do - He is YOUR Commander. He is THE unstoppable Force in the Universe, that makes EVEN SPACE it self expand. And also Accelerate. And STOP! Its time, to look at Bitcoin... Even Bigger Parapolic Move Than 2017 - Here is The Evidence 1. Price Volume Trend Convergence 2. Bullish Volume Record 3. Global Bullish Market Sentiment (has decreased after the Binance Bomb, but more people will probably leave alts and go into BTC, which makes BTC EVEN Stronger. 4. The Bullish Momenum (Greed) keep increasing ( MACD Histogram) 5. BTC-Dominance Movement is similar with what happened before the bull run in 2017 before the Binance News 6. Our Elliott Waves match extremely good with this scenario, COMBINED with... 6a ...what we can expect the whales wish happens, and also how they will be able to take advantage of the situation. 6b ...the Psychology of the Market Cycle, and how we can expect that people will behave. Just one example could be, that when we reach just above 10,000 USD Main Stream Media will pick up on the story, and this will engage new players to come into the market again, and then will all the dumb Money Buy the 5th Waves as ALWAYS and the Whales who have accumulated since 3kish USD will Sell! My Friends. My Army - Lets do this together. 2019 is our YEAR! We WILL Make a NEW ALL TIME HIGH, and D4rkEnergY Will Show You the WAY... D4 Knows Everything! PS. If You Are Part of the Biggest growing community on TradingView, the D4-Army Hit That Like Button, like a boss!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by D4rkEnergY
4
Ethereum In Parabolic Bull Run - And something about adapting!D4rkEnergy - Better than Ever - is back, and he is happy to have his D4-Family with him on this JOURNEY! Did you see that Bitcoin call yesterday? This is going to be an amazing year for crypto!! D4 is so happy that you guys are with him, and nobody can stop the D4-Army! We are Untsoppable, and D4 will help YOU Make Money.. Just follow D4s advice.. Things Has Changed After The Binance Bomb Before I begin let me just say, and let me stress, that it is COMPLETELY OK to change your bias. Don't be that guy who ever says: But for 2 days ago you said.... Or: 1 year ago you said... If you want to become a good trader rule number is: **Never stick to a fixed narrative**. We obviously dont want to change all the time, and we dont want to change when we have made our analysis and made the trade (of course there are exceptions, but usually we will let the trade run out). Adapting is important So when you hear new traders keep saying that, just shake your head. We NEED to change our bias when times go and when we get more information. We need to adapt when we see changes. Remember: For every second, minute, hour or day there goes by THE MARKET gives us new information. So to tell me, that I shouldnt use that information in my trading is insanity. ETHEREUM IS STRONG - Parabolic Bull Run Ethereum here is showing a lot of strength. And let me just put it out there - right now it seems like, we already have begun our 5th wave. And that 5th wave can take us really high! Its not completely over, we still need to cross my red dotted line, but so far it looks like we had a 335 Flat Running ABC-structure. We will most likely see a small correction, and they we will go up! D4 Knows Everything! PS. Please give a LIKE if you are part of the D4-Army and D4 will help you here on TradingView to Make Money! This year is OUR year!
BITMEX:ETHUSD.P
by D4rkEnergY
42
Inverted H&S on BNBBTC = great mid-long entry!That massive spike in volume just confirms the indicator of the HNS pointed out in the charting published. We had to have expected some sort of consolidation in an expected (but not so quickly) surge of parabolic movement that may resemble what looks like a bullish pattern (and it very well could be—a consolidation that got derailed then ends up right back on track for continuity. This would be the best and (as far as now goes)feasible market price outlook/analysis for $BNB paired against $BTC as one winds down and the other continues to shatter expectations & break down barriers while shitting on skeptics. *cough* Chicocrypto *cough* I highly suggest you make your entry before FOMOing; hypothetically speaking of course, given that this isn’t financialnadvise in any way/shape/form. Hope you gals & guys are having a good time on this wonderful Friday evening. I’m sitting alone in a hotel room staring at charts smh
Long
by UnknownUnicorn3861629
BTCUSD 1D chart (6/13/2019)Good morning, traders. After yesterday's $300 pop, price has been retracing as expected. At this point, it appears that price should be about ready to start moving up again as it has bounced around the $8050 level which was the general resistance area prior to the pop. However, we are going to zoom out to the daily once more and take a look at the Coinbase chart. I've mentioned before, but will again, I do not believe this to be a head and shoulders pattern. Most other professional traders that have been around for a number of years appear to agree with me as well, not the least of which is Peter Brandt. The amateur traders, however, have been littering social media (Tradingview included) with the H&S nonsense. The green box is the weekly order block from around the first week of November 2017. I've pointed it out before and am doing so once more because I believe that price will not drop below this level. It took a terminal shakeout to get price below it last November and now that it has been done it won't be done again. Currently, price has made it back above the red line which is the monthly pivot. It is also above the 21 EMA. The dashed line just above price is the 2018 TR's EQ. We can see that the daily pivot also has held as support so far. Furthermore, the daily RSI is attempting to break through its resistance and Stoch RSI has recently left oversold. Both have a lot of room to run. All of this is bullish. Stop concentrating on the 15 minute TFs right now. Price is also at the top of the month-long TR and a break above $8388 on this chart will signal that price has moved above the TR's resistance which means all it has to do is close above the swing high at $9090 to signal further upside. The purple curve shows that price is possibly still parabolic and, if so, then we shouldn't be surprised to see price top out around $14000-$18000. But if it's going to do so, then it would be expected to do so sooner rather than later. In a parabola, the last push up is the most violent and often produes 100% growth over the pattern's 3rd base which is what appears to be printing at this time. This current consolidation area really seems no different than the previous one at $5000, which I've pointed out numerous times. The longer it plays out the more similar it becomes. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
Update on the btc parabolic moveThe patterns can be read both bullish and bearish currently. Overall I see these options. Option A: Parabolic curve was already broken Volume has been decreasing continuously, 3D and Weekly momentum is exhausted, NVT and Money flow are giving sell signals The large upward channel has been broken to the down side, large rising wedge has been broken, bear flag forming for further downside, HS potential Parabilic moves tend to correct more strongly (and the flash crash is not to be counted as a proper correction). The main question is whether the parabolic curve is actually broken and we are now progressing to the previous parabolic curve trend line before moving down. With 70% I believe this is the case. In my previous post I assumed we would go up to this level of ~$8.8k I slightly updated the form of the curve since my last post, also the drop targets Option B: Parabolic move is in tact Volume is decreasing but will increase for the next bush up following a very similar pattern to the period April 25th to May 8th. I.E.: break out from larger rising wedge and bear flag setup followed by volume increase and move up. The hourly and daily momentum still shows strength. See this 30% likely.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ThoTA
If you want to be a bull clap your hands *clap clap*All I can say is if it is the case bears are in disbelief, a break of 8400 (recent highs) for me signals the end of a bear market and this hasn't been a bull run but is in fact still the beginnings of a bull market. This could possibly be a cool strategy to follow as a birdie told me a certain man named Trav wants the retail buyers interested in a new parabolic trend. The name's Bill Hicks, life is just a ride and we are the imagination of ourselves. This prediction could be right but is most likely wrong.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by CryptoHicks
Is BTCUSD ready for a big move? Three triangles confined in one!Hi, during the past month we have seen a significant move to the upside for BTCUSD. It has made its parabolic move to the upside and is now approaching the last triangle of the bigger triangle pointing towards its respective goal. After reaching it I expect it to move contrary to the trend in a strong move to the downside. That the correction will take place it the next couple of days will be very likely, however I want to make clear that this formation does not provide a trading entry. It is highly advisable to wait for a breakout in the expected direction and that one acts accordingly. If the move will be a correction I expect it to touch the area between the two orange lines, showing the 50 and 61 % retracement of the parabolic price action towards its respective goal. Sell: wait for the breakout to the downside or set sell order near the next major resistance. Buy: the dips inside of the uprising triangle. Trade the edge with care and wait for confirmations on lower timeframes. Feel free to comment or like and I will be posting more in the future. Be happy and patient Heish
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by MeruEU
BTC parabolic rise could lead to 20k in extreme caseI don't think that yesterdays dump was the end of this parabolic rise. BTC stabilized too fast for it being the end of this move. Plus, the perfect parabolic shape is just too painfully obvious to ignore. I see two important resistance zones, the upper monthly bollinger band at 12-13k, and the ATH resistance at 20k. There are of course other resistances, but those two are very strong. So, in the most bullish case, BTC could indeed go to 20k by the end of June. Then a few months of sideways after the dump, and drawing a nice giant cup and handle with the ATH. In the normal bull case, we'll see 12-13k as the intermediary top, dump to 7-8k, and consolidate at these levels until the upmove resumes. This all is highly interesting, and we could see BTC do something which it has not done before. A move to 20k directly from here, would not have a precedent, there is no fractal which is similar from the timing and velocity of the move. I find it highly fascinating. But the parabola still has one hole month left until going vertical, and we all know what can happen in one month :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
23
About time we had a correction.It’s been a while since I’ve posted anything, like anyone, life gets hectic. But I’ve managed to still keep my eye on things. We’ve had some MASSIVE gains with BTC, moving 181% from its lows in Dec. Now’s probably the time to take a step back and re-evaluate. As we can see, BTC went full parabolic, making it all the way up to around $8,300, a quick sell off to $6,800 before going again to $9,000. Since then, BTC seems to have lost its momentum, as we are now hovering around the $8,500 area. As shown, it has broken through the parabola with the tip of the climb forming a rising wedge (shown in blue). RSI has broken through support (yellow line) and MACD also seems to be making a move downwards. Screenshots in updates. As the old adage goes, “What goes up, must come down” and after Bitcoin’s massive run, I believe we’re overdue for a move down, in a BIG WAY! I believe BTC will drop down to at LEAST the $6,500-$6,600 area, with even a test of the $5,800 area if we have a lot of panic sellers. As anyone trying to help others out, this is not financial advice, only my opinions. Always DYOR and play with what you’re willing to lose. Trade safe everyone!
BNC:BLXShort
by Curdled_Jelly
1
Bitcoin Pullback and Parabolic comparisonI see a lot of comments at the moment regarding pullback or retest. 'Ooh it's rising too steep, it's gonna crash!'. 'It hasn't pulled back, it won't go much higher'. So here is a quick comparison from 2017 on the left and current price on the right. in 2016-17 we saw an increase from 600 to 1200 with a pullback to 750 Then up to 1300 and another pullback to 900. However, after that the price doubled to 1850 with only a small pullback before rocketing up a very steep curve to 2700 before a larger pullback. Please keep this in mind when trying to catch the top shorting this. If a similar pattern happened now, the pullback to 6600 could hit 12000 before another retest.
BNC:BLXLong
by paulflint
1