Parallel Channel
IPO : US IPO ETFAfter suffering a brutal bearish phase from 2021 to 2022 when the ETF ‘IPO’ suffered a 70% drawdown the ETF is recently having a renaissance. ETF has been having a comeback since 2024. It has recovered almost 80% from its lows. The recent weakness in the market has pushed it below 100 day SMA in the weekly charts.
Nifty looking weak after closing below Mid-channel. Nifty looking very weak after closing below Mid-channel support and 50 weeks EMA Mother line support. Mother line support or the 50 Week EMA was at 23442 and the closing we got is at 23431. If Nifty does not recover quickly and claims the Mid-Channel and 50 Weeks EMA, we might be in for more fall with supports at 23273, 22800 (Major Support Zone). If we get a weekly closing below 22800 we will fall totally into bear territory. In such a scenario bears can drag Nifty further down to 22025, 21294 or even near channel bottom of 20813. 20813 will again be a major Parallel chanel bottom support. Resistances on the upper side will be at 23442, 23938, 24525 and 24948 before we can reclaime 25K levels. Later in the year when we get a closing above 25K levels we may again face the 25782, 26277 previous Nifty peak will be major resistances. Nifty channel top post recovery seems to be at 27255. We may reach there in hopefully by mid or end H2 2025. Value Investors can start looking out for bottom fishing and value buying opportunities specially in the Large and selective mid and small caps.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
BitcoinAnother possible scenario is that this correction looks like an Elliot Wave Channel, with the C wavelength very close to the B wave.
The corrective channel is made by two trendline lines. The first primary line connects the starting point of wave A to the end of wave B, and then the parallel line is placed at the end of wave A. Normally, wave C will end at that parallel line to complete a corrective retracement.
NZDUSD Wave Analysis 10 January 2025
- NZDUSD falling inside weekly impulse wave C
- Likely to fall to support level 0.5500
NZDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the lower trendline of the wide weekly down channel from the start of 2023 (which is acting as the resistance after it was broken in December).
The downward reversal from this down channel accelerated the active impulse C-wave of the weekly downward ABC correction (2) from the start of last year.
Given the strong downtrend on the weekly charts, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall toward the next long-term support level 0.5500 (which stopped the sharp weekly downtrend at the end of 2022).
GBPUSD Wave Analysis 10 January 2025
- GBPUSD broke key support level 1.2300
- Likely to fall to support level 1.2100
GBPUSD currency pair recently broke the key support level 1.2300 (former multi-month low from April of 2024, as can be seen below from the daily GBPUSD chart below).
The breakout of the support level 1.2300 accelerated the active medium-term impulse wave (3).
Given the medium-term downtrend on the daily charts, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to fall toward the next support level 1.2100 (former major support from the end of 2023).
GOLD → The market is nervous ahead of NFP. What's next?$FXCM:XAUUSD continues its strong upward movement, but along with the growth there are growing risks of a strong fall. NFP is ahead, and the situation is quite tense....
Fundamentally the situation is confusing, the main nuance is Trump's policy and the hawkish stance of the Fed, which creates pressure on the market, but gold, as we see, is rising due to the growing economic and geopolitical risks associated with Trump's policy, the crisis in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and economic problems in China.
NFP is ahead, which creates additional risks: either an aggressive rise or a breakdown of strong support and the formation of a strong downward momentum.
A weaker NFP may bring back expectations of an aggressive Fed rate cut, causing a broad correction in the US dollar, which could favor gold. Conversely, an upside surprise in NFP and wage inflation data could reinforce hawkish Fed rate hikes.
Resistance levels: 2678, channel, 2693
Support levels: 2675, 2671, 2665
Technically, a strong bullish structure is forming. A break of resistance and favorable news could strengthen the rise to 2700. But, there is an additional scenario: Break of support of the rising structure or 2665 - 2671 may provoke capitulation and fall to 2655 - 2640.
Regards R. Linda!
AUDUSD → Trigger breakdown will trigger a fallFX:AUDUSD is approaching the trigger that can provoke a strong fall. Against the backdrop of a strong and rising dollar, the Aussie doesn't stand a chance yet.
The price is testing the level from the weekly timeframe, the breakdown of which will open the way to the abyss. There is no support until 0.54-0.55. Based on Trump's policy, the Fed's stance and the potential of the Australian dollar we can say that the odds are generally quite high that the price will continue its decline in the medium term expectation.
Technically, on 4H the price is approaching the level of 0.6179. A pre-breakdown consolidation is forming in relation to the level. I do not exclude an attempt to retest the local resistance before further breakout, but the general technical and fundamental situation hints at a decline.
Resistance levels: 0.6199, 0.622, 0.6274
Support levels: 0.6179
Downward channel, retest of support after false breakdown of resistance (deceptive maneuver before a strong fall). Emphasis on the trigger at 0.6179. Breakdown and price consolidation below the level will trigger a fall
Regards R. Linda!
HelenP. I Gold will correct and then continue rise in channelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. If we look at the chart we can see how the price rebounded from support 1 and then dropped to the trend line, thereby breaking support 2, which coincided with the support zone. After this, the price started to grow inside the upward channel, where it soon broke support 2 one more time but later made a correction back to the trend line. Some time later Gold finally broke support 2 and then made a retest, after which some time traded near this level and even made a fake breakout of it with a trend line. After this, the price backed up to the channel and continued to grow and later reached support 1, which coincided with the resistance zone and broke this level. Gold rose to the resistance line of the channel and then made a correction movement to the trend line (support line of the channel) and then quickly backed up to the resistance zone. At the moment, the price continues to trades in this area and I think that XAUUSD will make a correction below the support level and then continue to grow inside the upward channel. For this case, I set my goal at 2670 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Intraday Bullish Confirmation?!
Bitcoin looks bullish after a test of a key daily/intraday horizontal support.
The price violated a resistance line of a minor falling channel and formed a local
Change of Character CHoCH.
Chances are high that the price will continue growing.
Goals: 96900 / 100000
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WTI crude oil Wave Analysis 9 January 2025
- WTI crude oil reversed from support level 72.25
- Likely to rise to resistance level 74.60
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the key support level 72.25 (former resistance from October and November, as can be seen below).
The upward reversal from the support level 72.25 continues the c-wave of the active ABC correction 2 from the middle of November.
WTI crude oil can be expected to rise in the active minor c-wave to the next resistance level 74.60, coinciding with the resistance trendline of the narrow daily up channel from last month.
USDCAD Wave Analysis 9 January 2025
- USDCAD reversed from support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.4450
USDCAD currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone located between the support level 1.43000, 20-day moving average and the support trendline of the sharp daily up channel from September.
This support zone was further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from last month.
Given the clear daily uptrend, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.4450 (which stopped the previous waves (3) and B).
Nvidia - Shocking Everybody Again In 2025!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) will rally another +40% in 2025:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
For most people, it seems absolutely counterintuitive to witness another parabolic blow off rally on Nvidia and that's exactly why we will see such moves during 2025. Market structure just supports this outlook since Nvidia is still overall bullish and has some room towards the upside.
Levels to watch: $200
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
GBPUSD → Consolidation in the selling zone held by bearsFX:GBPUSD made an attempt to grow, but could not overcome the bears' pressure zone. The reasons for the growth are the dollar correction, which was short-lived. The main trend is not broken.
On D1 the price after breaking through the key support at 1.25 tested it already as resistance within the correction. A false breakout of resistance is formed and price consolidation in the selling zone. The sharp impulse was related to the dollar, which fell after Trump's comments on rumors related to his policy. The dollar returned to the upside creating another bout of pressure on GBP.
Technically, the main trend is bearish. The price is in the selling zone and bears are not ready to give up their positions.
The risk of trend change may come after the breakout of 1.26, but it is too early to talk about it...
Resistance levels: 1.2575, 1.26
Support levels: 1.2488, 1.2449
The price is trying to consolidate in the selling zone, which generally indicates which way the market intends to go. Bears are increasing pressure and if they keep the price below 1.2488 - 1.2449, we will see a fall in the short and medium term.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD - Price can rise a little and then make correction movementHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price grew inside rising channel, where it at once broke $2600 level and continued to grow next.
Soon, price reached $2635 level, but at once turned around and made a small correction, after which continued to grow.
Price reached $2635 level again and then dropped to support area, exiting from a channel and entering to wedge.
In wedge, price made an upward impulse from support line to resistance line, breaking $2600 with $2635 levels.
Gold made a correction to support line, and then bounced up to resistance line and recently exited from wedge too.
Now, in my mind, XAU can rise a little and then make a correction movement to $2645
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Alt Coins - one more correction likelyThis is the chart of TOTAL3 market cap - all coins excluding BTC and ETH (essentially market cap of all alt coins).
As we can see, price action is within a larger bull flag (yellow parallel channel) but within it, there is a bear flag (red parallel channel).
Market cap is currently at 950 bn. We are likely to see one more correction where market cap is likely to touch 800 bn market cap. This is because if market cap breaks down from the bear flag, on the basis of measured move, market cap is likely to touch 800 bn. This is also a fib retracement level of 50% and a strong support zone on Weekly timeframe.
Once market cap hits 800 bn zone, there is likely to be a bounce which could pierce the yellow parallel channel as it will be the 3rd hit on the upper trendline of the yellow parallel channel.
Remember technicals are all probabilities, market cap could negate bear flag to hit upper trendline of the yellow parallel channel.
Hit 2670 as expected,continued to buy gold after falling backBros, gold has finally lived up to expectations, successfully reaching my projected target range of 2670-2680.
Those who have been following my trading strategy know that I’ve consistently maintained a bullish stance on gold and frequently highlighted the target range of 2670-2680. Now, gold has hit the anticipated level of 2670.
In the short term, gold has accelerated upward to the 2670 level. However, I believe this is not the peak of the current rally. If gold manages to hold above the 2655-2650 support zone during any corrections, it could potentially extend its upward momentum toward the 2685-2690 range.
Bros, have you followed me to do long gold? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
British Pound in freefallLooking at this chart what I see is a break down from an ascending parallel channel within a longer term descending channel. Indeed if I do a measured move replicating the previous down leg it is not hard to see a trajectory back towards dollar parity, possibly this year. This could well also explain the increase in yields in the gilt market as investors find bonds less attractive due to the declining currency.
BITCOIN → Retest of key support. What can happen?BINANCE:BTCUSD continues to form a consolidation, this could continue until Trump's inauguration. Price is approaching a key support level and a liquidity zone that harbors both crowd fear and huge potential.
On W1, price is trying to consolidate above the global rising line playing the role of support. Buyers can aggressively defend this area because if this area is lost, price could very easily and quickly descend to 72-75K.
Bitcoin has moved into a local correction due to economic data, but the global fundamental picture is quite positive (thanks to Trump and community interest).
Levels in the 91K - 89K - 86K zone are attracting the attention of major players as these are psychologically important and historically strong buying zones, especially against the backdrop of a strong bullish trend.
The current flat and consolidation boundaries may persist as traders and the community wait for Trump's inauguration and his active actions, and the economic data had only a temporary impact.
Resistance levels: SMA, 99.5K, 102.5K
Support levels: 91.7K, 89.3K, 86.7K
A false break of support can provoke quite a violent reaction. After such a strong fall, I expect a rebound rather than a breakdown. I do not exclude a retest of 89-86K before further growth.
Regards R. Linda!
GBPAUD: Classic Breakout Trading 🇬🇧🇦🇺
GBPAUD looks bearish after a retest of a recently broken daily/intraday horizontal support.
As a confirmation, I see a bearish breakout of a local horizontal range that was formed on a broken structure.
I will expect a down movement at least to 1.981
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USDCAD: Confirmed Bearish Trap?! 🇺🇸🇨🇦
USDCAD formed a bearish trap with a false breakout of a key daily/intraday
horizontal support.
The trap was followed by a confirmed bullish imbalance and a breakout
of the upper boundary of a consolidation range on a 4H.
With a high probability, the price will rise and reach 1.444 level.
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FIL/USDT Short Setup on Rising Channel BreakdownThis chart showcases a short position on FIL/USDT after a breakdown from a rising channel pattern. The price respected the upper and lower boundaries of the channel before breaking below the support, signaling a potential bearish continuation.
Key Levels
Entry Price: Around 5.39 (near the channel breakdown point)
Stop Loss: Set at 5.59 (above recent resistance)
Take Profit Target: Approximately 4.73 (aligned with prior support and pattern projection)
Technical Insights
Rising Channel Pattern: Generally bearish when a breakdown occurs, indicating a loss of bullish momentum.
Bearish Confirmation: A strong downside move with momentum below the lower trendline enhances the validity of this setup.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: The setup offers a good R:R, making it an efficient short trade opportunity if market conditions align.
Traders can watch for further confirmation, such as volume spikes or retests of broken support levels acting as resistance, before adding to their positions.
Bitcoin - Why is everyone wrong about the upcoming moveEveryone is turning very bullish again on BTC and altcoins. I really don't think it will be that easy; the whales need liquidity and make money before pushing the price higher. From a technical perspective, there is no confirmation of an uptrend, but let's take a look at the details.
First of all, let's take a look at the huge ascending channel. The price respects both trendlines very precisely. On 17. December, Bitcoin hit the top of the channel and got rejected from it. It would definitely make sense if the price now retests the middle of the channel, which is currently at around 85k.
Second, we still have a completely unfilled and untested FVG (Fair Value GAP) on the daily chart. This GAP is between 85k and 77k. This price action should be tested.
Third, we have a pretty significant head-and-shoulders reversal pattern at the top of the trend. This pattern looks pretty solid, there is a lot of liquidity below it. All stop losses from traders and liquidations on the futures market. If you see multiple swing lows next to each other, you may be pretty sure that the price will go here and sweep the liquidity.
Fourth, from the Elliott Wave perspective, we have finished wave (3) of an impulse wave larger degree. We should make an ABC correction, so I think we are in wave (4). After we finish this correction, we start wave (5). This will bring the price of Bitcoin to an all-time high. I expect Bitcoin to hit around 125k.
Fifth, let's take a look at the RSI indicator. On the daily chart, there is clearly a downtrend. The line makes lower lows and lower highs. Also, we can see a bearish divergence. This is not an uptrend, but a downtrend.
Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!