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Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Risk IndicatorIn this idea, I’ll walk you through the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Risk Indicator — a tool based on the well-known Pi Cycle Top Indicator. By the end, we’ll have a new lens to analyze INDEX:BTCUSD market cycles. 👇 First, a quick recap of the original Pi Cycle Top Indicator. It uses two moving averages: — 111-day MA (111DMA) — 350-day MA × 2 (350DMA x 2) A bullish crossover (111DMA crossing above 350DMA×2) historically predicted BTC tops within 3 days. However, one sould know that in 2021 the signal occurred in April (the first peak). The higher November peak didn’t trigger the indicator. Now let’s take the ratio: 111DMA / (350DMA × 2) → this gives us the Pi Cycle Top Ratio (orange line). When the ratio crosses 1 from below, that’s equivalent to the original Pi Cycle Top signal. As you can see: each new major peak is lower than the previous. In 2021, the ratio barely touched 1. This implies that in this cycle, the moving averages may not cross — and Pi Cycle Top Indicator may not generate a signal . Can we forecast the next peak of the Ratio? (Keep in mind: Ratio peaks ≠ BTC price peaks but we'll get back to it later.) Turns out the Ratio peaks fit nicely along a logarithmic curve — let’s plot it. And the lows sit on a straight line. We add both bounds, plus a midline. Now we have a band within which the Ratio tends to move — useful for anticipating turning points. Next, let’s normalize the Ratio within this band: — bottom bound = 0 — top bound = 1 This gives us the Pi Cycle Top Risk indicator — a clean, scaled version of market risk. Currently, it sits at 0.47 , right around the mid-range. Now let’s compare Pi Cycle Top Risk to past BTC tops and bottoms (using daily closes). We’ll treat April 2021 as the last cycle top. The chart shows: — BTC tops occurred when Risk ≥ 0.79 — Bottoms occurred when Risk ≤ 0.24 (or ≤ 0.10 excluding 2011) Summary: 1. Right now, Pi Cycle Top Risk ≈ 0.47 and has been hovering near 0.5 for the past year. This reflects a relatively low volatility during this market cycle — BTC has been rising steadily, with pauses for consolidation, no mania phase and blow-off top. 2. How can we use this going forward? I can’t say whether the Risk will rise or fall — and there’s no guarantee it’ll hit the boundaries. But if it's ever: — Above 0.9 (bright-red zone) → strong signal to consider selling — Below 0.1 (bright-green zone) → potentially good buy opportunities Not financial advice. We’ll keep tracking it.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ChartNChill
1
Bitcoin - Is Bitcoin on the way up?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and has broken out of its descending channel. The continuation of Bitcoin’s upward trend will depend on maintaining the drawn upward trend line. A valid break of this trend line will cause Bitcoin’s price to correct to the 80,000 range. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range. Following the announcement of new trade tariffs by the United States, Bitcoin experienced a 16.7% drop in price. However, it partially recovered from its 26.7% plunge. The total global cryptocurrency market capitalization has now reached $2.74 trillion, marking a 1.71% increase compared to the previous day. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market trading volume hit $60.7 billion, reflecting a 32.28% rise. Within this, DeFi transactions account for $5.25 billion, making up 8.65% of the total 24-hour market volume. Meanwhile, stablecoins have dominated trading activity with $55.84 billion in volume, representing 92% of the total market volume for the day. When comparing Bitcoin’s performance to other major assets, gold leads with a 12.9% gain. In contrast, both silver and the U.S. Dollar Index saw a 4.8% decline. The S&P 500 fell by 13.8%, while the Nasdaq dropped 17.5%. Despite its volatility, Bitcoin sits between oil and the Nasdaq in performance, showing signs of partial recovery. However, its behavior still diverges from that of traditional safe-haven assets like gold. On the political front, Hong Joon-pyo, a presidential candidate from South Korea’s conservative party, pledged that if elected, he would implement reforms in blockchain and cryptocurrency regulations. He also promised to integrate blockchain technology into public sector and administrative services. Additionally, Hong plans to invest at least 50 trillion Korean won (approximately $35.1 billion) over the next five years in research and development across artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and room-temperature superconductors. These initiatives are part of his broader strategy focused on growth driven by emerging technologies. In Q1 2025, publicly traded companies collectively acquired 95,431 bitcoins, bringing their total holdings to 688,000 BTC. This amount represents 3.28% of Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins. The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the difference in Bitcoin demand between U.S. markets and global exchanges, has shown reduced volatility since March 2024. It appears to be forming a pattern often seen before bullish market trends. Robert Kiyosaki, renowned entrepreneur and author of the best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, has forecasted that Bitcoin’s price could rise to between $180,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025. Kiyosaki has long been an outspoken supporter of Bitcoin, portraying it as a safe hedge against inflation and economic instability.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Doge I 3M CLS I KL - Order Block Mode 1 - TP 50%Hey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model. If you haven't followed me yet, start now. My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution. 🧩 What is CLS? CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets. ✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits. 🛡️ Models 1 and 2: From my posts, you can learn two core execution models. They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained. 📍 Model 1 is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range. 📍 Model 2 occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. ⚔️ Listen Carefully: Analysis is not trading. Right now, this platform is full of gurus" trying to sell you dreams based on analysis with arrows while they don't even have the skill to trade themselves. If you’re ever thinking about buying a Trading Course or Signals from anyone. Always demand a verified track record. It takes less than five minutes to connect 3rd third-party verification tool and link to the widget to his signature. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Long
by David_Perk
21
Where Can We Rebuy OM? (1W)After the heavy drop, it became evident that a bearish trend had started, and the price is now seeking high-liquidity (buy) zones. Based on the chart, the green zone stands out as the best area for a potential rebuy — it could launch the price upward by 100% to 500%. Reaching this zone may take several weeks or even months. A weekly candle closing below the invalidation level would invalidate this outlook. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
Nifty Weekly Wrap – 3rd Week of April ’25📉📈 Nifty Weekly Wrap – 3rd Week of April ’25 🔍 Bulls Charge Ahead – A 1,000+ Point Weekly Rally! 📌 Market Recap What a week! Nifty 50 delivered a massive +1023 point gain – up 4.4% on a weekly closing basis – breaching the crucial 23,800 level and closing strong. The rally was powered by a duo of positive triggers: ✅ Tariff relief ✅ Cooling inflation This combination boosted sentiment and attracted strong institutional buying across the board. 📊 Technical Overview Weekly & Monthly Candles: Bullish ✅ PCR Ratio: At 1.15, signaling a bullish tilt RSI: Holding steady at 54 – trend and momentum both aligned 200 SMA on Daily Chart: At 24,050 – a crucial level to watch. 🔼 A breakout and close above this may trigger fresh buying and a possible shift in long-term sentiment. 📌 Bank Nifty Leadership Bank Nifty almost hit its all-time high, clearly outperforming Nifty this week. The rally wasn’t limited to just PSU or private players – both segments showed strong participation, giving more legs to this uptrend. 📍 Key Bank Nifty Level: ➡️ As long as 52,000 holds, the uptrend structure remains intact. 📉 Volatility Update – India VIX India VIX cooled off by a sharp 24%, settling near 15 – further reinforcing the low fear + high confidence mood in the market. 📌 Market Sentiment Snapshot Everything is aligning for the bulls: ✅ Sectoral rotation ✅ Robust earnings ✅ Institutional buying ✅ Easing macro concerns 🎯 Momentum is real, and as long as levels hold, dips might continue to be bought. 📌 Key Levels to Watch (Nifty) 🔼 Resistance Zones ▶️ 24,050 (200 SMA – critical level) ▶️ 24,190 ~ 24,225 ▶️ 24,450 🔽 Support Zones ▶️ 23,820 ▶️ 23,660 ~ 23,710 ▶️ 23,400 ▶️ 23,200 📋 Strategy Heading into Next Week 🧘 Stay with the trend, but don’t get complacent. 📌 Watch for a clean breakout above 24,050 with volume – it could set the tone for a fresh leg higher. 📌 On the downside, 23,660–23,820 is a key demand zone to track. Let the structure develop – no need to predict every move. Follow price, stay flexible.
NSE:NIFTY
by kzatakia
The latest trading strategy for gold next weekLast week, gold continued to surge, closing with a large positive weekly candlestick and reaching a new all - time high. In the short term, the price remains strong. Recently, the tariff - related friction has not shown any further obvious escalation, and the market is waiting for new developments and catalysts. In addition, although the Trump administration has been constantly pressuring the Federal Reserve, Powell still maintains a relatively hawkish stance, insisting on waiting for more definitive data before considering adjusting the monetary policy. After digesting the Fed' s statement, the market has no choice but to wait and see. Coupled with the fact that it is 适逢 an American holiday, some long - positions in precious metals have taken profits and left the market. Although there was a decline on Thursday due to profit - taking, gold rebounded quickly and the upward trend remains strong. Going forward, it is advisable to continue the strategy of buying on dips in line with the trend. buy@3310-3312 sl:3302 tp:3330-3340 The accuracy rate of our daily signals has remained above 98% within a month! 📈 We sincerely welcome you to join our channel and share in the success with us!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by HilaryBloomer
BMT is a rockt ! (2H)It seems that a double bottom is forming, the previous bottom has been preserved, and an order block has formed, which has been broken to the upside. Additionally, a key level passes through this area. On the chart, we also have a bullish CH (Change of Character). If the trigger line is broken, it will provide further confirmation for a bullish move. As long as the demand zone holds, the price can move toward the targets. However, the closure of a 4-hour candle below the invalidation level would invalidate this analysis. Do not enter the position without capital management and stop setting Comment if you have any questions thank you
by iMoneyTeam
Profitable Short Opportunity on RATS (6H)The RATS token is bearish in both the larger and internal structures. There is a liquidity pool below the current price, and it's expected to collect sell orders from a strong supply zone before sweeping this liquidity pool. If the price reaches the red box, we will enter a short position. Targets are marked on the chart. A daily candle closing above the invalidation level will invalidate this setup. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
BINANCE:1000RATSUSDT.PShort
by behdark