BTC 1D local analysis and further planWell since we have not gone above the premium range of the Feb 7th candle and could not break any higher from where we received the dynamic move down, the levels im focusing on are as following 94 k in the discount array of Wed 14th candle, and if we dont keep it then I am looking for 92-93k, this is if we speak locally and where we can expect any retracements on lower timeframes or rebounds. Speaking generally I really like the idea of sweeping 90k and taking the lower boundary of the range before we receive any significant growth, obviously with manipulation and accumulation of the orders on daily timeframe
Pivot Points
STOP LOSS HUNTING STRATEGY 8.8% OR 10% REWARDSHORT AT STATISTICAL STOP LOSS FROM MAJORITY
Will short at where most put their stop loss. This strategy is valid for me because this forex pair is indicating a bearish sentiment and the strongest ever recorded. But there is no previous statistics on such a price action. So I will short your stop loss which is around 160-167 (Aggressive account) and 170.5 (Buy and hold account).
I have no believe in a bearish continuation beyon that, it will just carry on going bullish and I'm not interested into shorting or buying this premium as it was bullish for decades and will not offer an exit strategy and/or a decent Stop Loss size
Factors of confluence:
- Anchored VWAP 0.618 above
- Monthly SIBI Fair Value Gap acting as strong resistance
- Previous POC levels
Take Profit:
- EMA200 Weekly chart
- Previous Fair Value Gap level
- Previous Month POC of June 2023 that hasn't been retested and had a strong bullish candle
- Quarterly Q1 Pivot Support Levels
APPL – Daily OutlookStudy sales behavior at this range for potential market signals. - Profit Targets: 244, 242, and 239 (with potential gains of 2%, 3%, and 4.9%, respectively). Use proper risk management practices to protect your capital. **Disclaimer:** This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade responsibly.
Sales Zone (248-250):
Monitor sales activity in this range to gauge market strength.
Profit Targets:
244: Approx. 2% gain
242: Approx. 3% gain
239: Approx. 4.9% gain
These levels serve as potential exit points in a bearish scenario. Always manage risk appropriately and adjust your stop-loss according to daily volatility.
GBPUSD - Analysis and Potential Setups (Intraday- 10.02.25)Overall Trend & Context:
The OANDA:GBPUSD pair is in an overall downtrend on the higher time frames and lower time frames are in alignment.
Technical Findings:
Price broke below all EMA's - is now consolidating below.
Keep an eye on LTF supply levels between 1.24635 - 1.24530 (within 4h supply).
Bullish price action appears inherently weaker against the bears.
Potential Scenarios:
For now I will only be considering shorts.
Trade is active at 1.24150.
Continuation of the uptrend in EURUSDOn Friday, EURUSD reached the first target precisely and held around the 1,0500 level.
The bullish trend remains intact, with the next target at 1,0568.
All active buy positions should be managed with reduced risk.
New buying opportunities may arise after a pullback or a breakout and retest of the previous high.
No significant economic news is expected this week that could cause major market fluctuations.
XAU/USD - Bullish Setup in Progress Gold looking ripe, just waiting for the perfect strike.
4H:
Bullish momentum is clear, but no liquidity sweep or order block mitigation yet — patience is key.
30M:
Structure still holding bullish. IDM liquidity already taken out. Now it’s all about that order block tap.
5M:
Once price hits the order block, I’ll be locked in, waiting for that CHoCH flip and liquidity entry to ride gold’s move up. Timing is everything.
Bless Trading!
USD/JPY - Precision Play on SMC FoundationsLocked in on this one from top-down analysis.
4H:
Price swept IDM liquidity and is now mitigating a clean 4H order block — textbook SMC move.
30M:
Waited for liquidity to be taken out here too, and price didn’t disappoint. It struck my refined 30M order block perfectly, showing respect to structure and order flow.
5M:
Now it’s time for patience. Waiting for that CHoCH flip and liquidity grab to confirm my entry. Once that trigger hits, I’m in. Let’s run it.
Bless Trading!
Local BTCI think we are at the local pivot point where you can try to grab some longs to become part of algorithmic delivery to the buyside, the chart itself looks amazing from larger to smaller timeframes, perfect orderflow, rebalanced inefficiencies, sellside taken, smooth areas taken, retraced 50 % , i would look for the green start of the week, probably, all the way to an end of the week. Will be following along the chart throughout the week in the comments.
TOST looks to breakoutTOST earings are coming around the corner and the company is JUST becoming profitable. This reminds me of SOFI and HOOD and how they picked up steam so heavily as the negative EPS dropped. The stock saw a nice 50% fib pullback and is now contracting right into earnings. These wedges have a habit of breaking down after an upward pump. This is where you want to look at short interest, this amount isnt tremendously high but could cause a false wedge breakout.
My plan: My target for the year is 56$
As I sell out of TSLL I might be adding this as a new play alongside NBIS
The premium is high so I would likely buy 1-200 shares and then start selling CSP here
DOGE reng?🚀 Uptrend Breakout Zone
The chart shows a strong bullish breakout above the resistance level of $0.20812 and a retest of the support trendline. The upward move reached $0.38664, forming a new high. 📈
🔻 Correction Phase
A sharp drop from the $0.38664 level indicates profit-taking or potential bearish divergence. The price is approaching the highlighted $0.20357 zone, marked as a key support area. 🔴
📉 Short-term Bearish Trend
If the price breaks below $0.20357, further declines toward $0.11664 are possible. Traders should watch for a bullish signal (e.g., green candles) at these levels. 🛑
💡 Long-term Prediction
A potential cup-and-handle pattern formation is visible, suggesting a gradual recovery and a bullish reversal back toward $0.38823. 📈 Look for a breakout above this resistance level for confirmation.
📢 Trading Signals
✅ Buy Zone: Near $0.20357, if bullish candles appear. Target: $0.33000 to $0.38823.
❌ Sell Signal: If price closes below $0.20357, target lower support at $0.11664.
🚀 Long-term Buy: After a confirmed breakout above $0.38823.
📊 Risk Management: Use stop-loss orders to protect against unexpected moves below key levels. ⛔
SPX Losing Steam As RRP Runs to ZeroSP:SPX has been enjoying lots of liquidity from the reverse repo facility at the Fed recently, but this balance is soon going to zero as indicated by the trend shown in the chart. The orange line is an inverted RRP chart to show the correlation with SPX going up.
As liquidity in RRP runs out, the monthly SPX MACD also looks as if it's ready to swing down. The timing for when SPX rolls over is a challenge due to many factors, but RRP is on track to be zero within a month, and this will take away one major liquidity source driving markets. This event will be one to keep an eye on.
DXY Long into Zero Issuance WindowThe DXY was hammered when bad economic data came in last week. It also took a hit when a 30-year bond auction rallied the long bond, and caused yields to drop.
This move of dropping also occurred as the Treasury issued bills almost every day of the month, but now there's a window where no bonds will be auctioned until Tuesday.
The chart structure shows a falling wedge consolidation which bounced from the bottom, and this is a key level which resulted in a pivot going back to November 2023.
If DXY can solidify a support where there used to be resistance, this could add confidence to a further swing upward.
USUAL is bullish (2H)Given the formed trigger line and the fact that the price is making higher Lows below this trigger line, we can look for buy/long positions on the order blocks formed below the price.
The targets are marked on the chart.
A 4-hour candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
Do not enter the position without capital management and stop setting
Comment if you have any questions
thank you
WIF ANALYSIS (2H)After pumping, changing CH, and clearing a supply zone, the price is now pulling back to lower order blocks.
In the lower zone, there is an overlap between the flip line and the QM level, which appears to be a strong area.
Additionally, the upper order blocks have been consumed, and if the price intends to continue its upward movement, there are no significant sell orders ahead.
Targets are marked on the chart.
A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
M2 Peaking as Reverse Repo Drains to ZeroThe reverse repo balance at the Fed represents trapped liquidity. When this balance comes down it means liquidity is released into the economy and markets. The M2 level lags the change in reverse repo by about 300 days. Because reverse repo changes have been steady for some time, it is possible to draw a trajectory for reverse repo going to zero, and then M2 peaking out. This would coincide with a potential topping process for SPX as shown in the lower pane of the chart.
Minimum 9% Buy and hold at 9 year support + Confluence factorsHigh confluence zone gathering POC's of the last few months of 2024 and a Month Fair value gap used as a support for over 10 years.
This is a grab for me and its ready by monday as we retest the Q1 Pivot point
This EMA200 of a monthly chart is only available since 2018 but is such a wonderful support resistance for many pairs of Forex and we clearly see it happening with two week candles rejecting.
I will add to the winner above weekly BISI Fair value gap of Jan 06 at 0.838 after retest and only 1 more position to .81 which is higly risky if we reach .81
But getting down there would be a wreck of the British economy which is a 9 year low
Cardano AnalysisCardano ADA/USD Analysis
Cardano (ADA/USD) is currently trading at 0.788, having recently breached a critical support level. This breakdown has shifted the asset's technical structure, with the price now retesting the previously broken support zone, which has since turned into resistance. In technical analysis, such a retest of a breached support level often acts as a key confirmation point for the potential continuation of the prevailing trend. If the current candle closes decisively below this newly established resistance level, it could signal a resumption of bearish momentum, potentially opening the door for further downward movement.
The validity of this bearish outlook hinges on several factors, including the volume accompanying the price action and the broader market sentiment surrounding Cardano. Traders should remain vigilant for any signs of rejection or reversal patterns at this critical level, as these could negate the bearish thesis and indicate a shift in market dynamics.
In summary, while the current price action suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend, it is essential to approach the market with caution. We welcome your perspective on this analysis and whether you agree with the potential bearish outlook for Cardano. As always, prioritize responsible trading practices and robust risk management strategies.
IBIT (BTC) target March 31stHere is my coinciding target for IBIT which I hold in my main investment account and 401k. I believe this will happen in March or April and my target for BTC is 143k with an IBIT price of 83.
We see a consolidation similar to the recent pump we have a few months ago. Deeply low stochastic RSI and a moderate BBWP. I think we see a 30-40% move soon.
My plan:
I am trading this setup by utilizing my recent COIN/CONL trade. I also plan to dump all my IBIT around these levels since I already own Bitcoin and have a mara trade on deck.