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Emerging Swing Trade OpportunityHello, GBPUSD sees more downside as the dollar stays strong as doubts about fed rate cuts grow so the UK struggles to find a way out of the market slump that it is currently in.Early gains of +0.15% were seen as the USD came under pressure late in NY, following a +0.05% close. Trump advisors considering gradual tariff hikes led to USD selling in late NY. A survey shows UK firms reduced headcount late last year in response to a tax hike. Mixed daily momentum studies and expanding 21-day Bollinger bands are noted in charts. The 5, 10, and 21-DMAs are sliding, with weeklies remaining bearish, indicating a strong negative slip. The focus is on testing the 1.2038 low from October 2023, followed by the 1.1805 low in March 2023. Friday's high of 1.2322 and the well-tested 1.2465 21 DMA are the first resistance levels. Bulls need a close above the 1.2465 21-DMA to gain excitement. A swing trade opportunity is emerging, with strong daily and weekly resistance at 1.226201/1.241555 which have to confirm upside along the way and act as supports. Ultimately, we want the monthly initial support at 1.24809 to hold, ensuring a guaranteed upside. No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
Long
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
NZD/USD: Confidence Boost Signals Potential ReversalHello, OANDA:NZDUSD : Business confidence in New Zealand improved in the fourth quarter, reaching its highest level since Q2 2021, according to a private think tank on Tuesday. The NZIER's quarterly survey showed that a net 16% of firms expect better business conditions, compared to just 1% expressing pessimism in the previous quarter. This suggests we may see further support tests before a potential bullish reversal. No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
Long
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
Canadian Dollar Rises Amid Tariff Concerns and Oil GainsHello, FX:USDCAD : The Canadian dollar slightly rose against the U.S. dollar, with bond yields reaching multi-month highs, partly recovering from recent declines due to U.S. trade tariff threats. The loonie traded at 1.4405 to the U.S. dollar, recovering from a near 5-year low in December. Concerns about potential U.S. tariffs and their impact on the Bank of Canada have influenced the market. Despite strong job data in December, investor confidence in further BoC rate cuts has waned. Speculators have increased bearish bets on the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar gained against major currencies as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts diminished. Oil prices rose 2.9% to $78.82 per barrel due to anticipated U.S. sanctions on Russian oil. The Canadian 10-year yield increased to 3.507%, marking its highest level since July 9. For this pair a bearish reversal is still anticipated in the near future! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
Short
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
USD/JPY Bulls Charging: Can 144.88 Launch the Next Rally?Hello, USD/JPY: Bulls Charging Up — Bigger Upside in Sight! Current View: USD/JPY bounced strongly from 140.00 and bulls are aiming for a bigger breakout. Momentum is building, and if key support levels hold, we could see much higher prices soon. 🔥 Why We’re Bullish: Strong rebound from 140.00 support. Price pushing against the 144.00 resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break above 144.00 would unlock bigger upside potential. Fundamentals (U.S. growth + possible BOJ disappointment) favor USD strength. 📈 Bullish Roadmap: Level Action Next Target 144.00 Breakout and hold needed Move toward 144.881 144.881 (Important) If it holds as support, bullish continuation Rally towards 1M Pivot @ 149.266 149.266 If it holds as support, next move higher Push towards 1Y Pivot @ 152.9069 150.39–152.573 (Caution) 1M resistance zone — watch for possible pullbacks If cleared: Full bullish extension Aim for Final Target: 155.135 🗓 Events to Watch: BOJ Policy Meeting → Potential for yen weakness if BOJ disappoints. U.S. GDP + Non-Farm Payrolls → Could boost USD strength. ⚡ Quick Visual Flow: ➡️ Break above 144.00 ➡️ Hold 144.881 as support ➡️ Target 149.266 ➡️ Break through resistance at 150.39–152.573 ➡️ Target 152.9069 ➡️ Final goal: 155.135 ⚠️ Key Cautions: 150.39–152.573 is a major resistance area; expect possible profit-taking or heavy battles here. If 144.881 fails to hold, short-term pullbacks to 140.00 could reappear — manage stops accordingly. TL;DR: ✅ Bulls are strong. ✅ Watch 144.00 breakout and 144.881 support hold for bigger upside. ✅ Long-term targets: 149.266 → 152.9069 → 155.135, if major resistance breaks cleanly. ⚡ Stay updated on BOJ and U.S. data for confirmation! The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
Long
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
Japan's Economic Outlook: Steady Progress Amid UncertaintiesHello, FX:USDJPY will see downside as Japanese economic data remain positive, with recovery ongoing. The BOJ's outlook appears accurate, as the economy continues to progress steadily. Although uncertainties persist, they are unlikely to prevent the BOJ from raising rates in the future. The current account surplus is now Y3.3525 trillion, with a Y2.6911 trillion surplus anticipated. December bank loans increased by 3.1% year-on-year, following rises of 2.9% in November and 2.6% in October. Robust bank loans indicate that Japan Inc is progressing smoothly. There are uncertainties regarding new US Trump administration policies in 2025. Nonetheless, the domestic economy is stable, with trade with the US being the only question. This will be a solid bearish opportunity that will unfold shortly! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
Short
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
GE Aerospace Wave Analysis – 28 April 2025- GE Aerospace broke resistance area - Likely to rise to resistance level 205.00 GE Aerospace recently broke the resistance area between the round resistance levels 200.00, 193.60 and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from March. The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 3 from the start of April. GE Aerospace can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 205.00 (former top of wave b from the end of March).
NYSE:GELong
by FxProGlobal
SHIBUSDT Is Flashing Major Bearish Warnings – Are You Ready??Yello Paradisers, Have you been keeping an eye on SHIBUSDT? If not, now is the time. The market is showing clear signs of weakness that could lead to a significant bearish move, and many traders may not be prepared for what’s coming. 💎SHIBUSDT is currently looking bearish after forming a clear bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) on the higher timeframe. Adding to this, the price action on the lower timeframe is showing an internal Change of Character (I-CHoCH) originating from a 4-hour bearish Order Block (OB). This setup substantially increases the probability of a continuation to the downside. 💎What we are focusing on now is the potential pullback. If SHIBUSDT pulls back to fill the Fair Value Gap (FVG) or develops a bearish pattern from the Order Block, it would provide a strong short opportunity with an excellent risk-reward profile. 💎However, it is crucial to remain cautious: if the price breaks out and closes a candle above the identified Order Block, it would completely invalidate the bearish idea, and we would need to step aside from any short positions. Remember, Paradisers, sustainable trading success comes from patience and disciplined execution. There is no need to rush. Waiting for confirmation will always keep you on the winning side. Be smart, wait for the right setup, and always trade like a professional. This is the only way you will make it far in your crypto trading journey. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Short
by MyCryptoParadise
GER40 TECHNICAL ANALYSISThe GER40 has been on a strong bullish run, but is now stalling just below the 22,444 🔼 resistance zone. Price is showing early signs of hesitation, suggesting potential for either a breakout continuation or a deeper pullback. Support at: 21,973 🔽, 21,570 🔽, 20,900 🔽 Resistance at: 22,444 🔼, 22,800 🔼, 23,400 🔼 Bias: 🔼 Bullish: A clean breakout and retest above 22,444 could fuel a move toward the next major resistance at 22,800. As long as price holds above 21,973, the bullish structure remains intact. 🔽 Bearish: A failure to break above 22,444 combined with a break below 21,973 could trigger a pullback toward the 21,570 support zone. 📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
THINKMARKETS:GER40
by SPOT_FX
India’s Rise as the Global Rice Leader: Asian OpportunitiesIndia has solidified its position as a global agricultural powerhouse, overtaking China to become the world’s leading rice producer in the 2024/25 season. India’s rice production has reached a record 147 million tons, marking its ninth consecutive year of growth. This milestone, coupled with record-high rice exports of 24.5 million tons, underscores India’s growing influence in global food markets. For investors, this shift presents compelling opportunities in Asian agriculture, particularly in India’s agribusiness sector. India’s Rice Dominance: A Record-Breaking Year The WASDE report tells to us that India has taken a leadership position in rice production, with output raised by 2 million tons to 147 million tons. This figure is based on the Indian government’s Second Advanced Estimate, which includes both kharif and rabi crops, alongside expectations of a robust summer crop similar to recent years. For the first time, India has surpassed China, which produced 146 million tons in the same period, making India the top global rice producer. This milestone is significant, as rice is a staple for over half the world’s population, and India’s production growth ensures its pivotal role in global food security. India’s dominance extends beyond production to trade. The country’s rice exports for 2024/25 are projected to reach a record 24.5 million tons, up significantly from previous years. This surge has driven global rice trade to a new high of 60.6 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons from the prior forecast. India’s export growth is fueled by strong demand from Sub-Saharan Africa, where consumption is rising, as noted in the report’s 1.4 million ton increase in global rice consumption to 532.1 million tons. Additionally, global rice ending stocks are up 1.7 million tons to 183.2 million, with increases for India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, further stabilizing supply. Why India Stands Out India’s agricultural sector benefits from several structural advantages that make it a standout investment destination. First, its massive population of over 1.4 billion creates a robust domestic market, as highlighted in earlier discussions on emerging markets. This internal demand provides a buffer against global trade disruptions, such as the US-China trade conflicts, which has impacted other export-reliant economies. India’s focus on self-sufficiency, exemplified by initiatives like “Make in India,” has further strengthened its agricultural base, reducing dependence on imports. Secondly, India’s rice sector is supported by favorable government policies. Subsidies for farmers, investments in irrigation, and advancements in agricultural technology have driven productivity gains. India’s production growth is consistent, with nine consecutive years of increases, reflecting the effectiveness of these measures. Additionally, India’s ability to redirect exports to regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia demonstrates its adaptability in a volatile global market. Investment Opportunities in Indian Agribusiness India’s ascent as the global rice leader has created a fertile ground for investment across multiple sectors. Central to this are companies engaged in rice cultivation, milling, and packaging, such as KRBL Limited NSE:KRBL , which exported 1.2 million tons in 2024 and is well-positioned to leverage India’s total rice exports of 24.5 million tons. Enhancing this production is the growing adoption of agricultural technology; platforms like DeHaat, which supports over 1.5 million farmers, reported a 40% revenue surge in 2024, underscoring the sector’s potential. As exports soar, efficient logistics become paramount, with firms like Adani Agri Logistics NSE:ADANIPORTS , possessing a storage capacity of 1.5 million tons, ready to facilitate the movement of rice to global markets. Furthermore, the domestic market’s increasing consumer spending presents opportunities in rice-based consumer goods, exemplified by Britannia Industries’ 8% revenue growth in 2024. Broader Implications for Asian Agriculture India’s success in rice production has broader implications for Asian agriculture. The region, home to 60% of the world’s population, is a critical player in global food markets. We can see increases in rice production for Indonesia (up 0.5 million tons) and Cambodia (up 0.3 million tons), alongside higher ending stocks for Thailand (up 0.4 million tons) and Vietnam (up 0.3 million tons). This regional strength suggests, that Asian agriculture is becoming a more resilient investment theme, particularly amid global trade conflicts. Investors can also look beyond rice to other Asian agricultural sectors. For example, India’s soybean production contributes to global supplies (122.5 million tons ending stocks), offering opportunities in oilseed processing. Similarly, Southeast Asia’s palm oil production, despite a 1.3 million ton decline to 78.2 million tons, remains a pretty important investment area, with companies like Wilmar International poised to benefit from any recovery. Risks to Consider While India’s agricultural sector offers significant potential, risks remain. Inflationary pressures, as seen in India’s broader economy, could increase input costs for farmers, that may impact profitability. We also must highlight geopolitical tensions, such as the US-China trade conflicts, which may indirectly affect rice demand if economic growth slows in key markets like Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, infrastructure gaps in logistics and storage could hinder export efficiency, though government investments are addressing these challenges. To sum it all India’s ascent as the global rice leader, with a record 147 million tons of production and 24.5 million tons in exports, marks a pivotal moment for Asian agriculture. This trend offers a gateway to high-growth opportunities in India’s agribusiness sector, from rice production and agricultural technology to logistics and consumer goods. The broader resilience of Asian agriculture, supported by regional production gains in Indonesia and Cambodia, further enhances the investment case. While risks like inflation and geopolitical tensions persist, India’s structural advantages-domestic demand, policy support, and export growth-make it a compelling destination for long-term investors seeking exposure to the global food market.
CBOT:ZR1!
by juliakhandoshko
S&P 500 Rally Exhausted? Watch This Level for the Next Drop!The S&P 500 Index( SP:SPX ) has finally touched the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) as I expected in my previous post . The S&P 500 Index is moving near the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) , the Resistance line, and Yearly Pivot Point . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the S&P 500 Index is completing the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) , and if the uptrend line breaks , we can confirm the end of the Zigzag correction . When the S&P 500 Index started to rise on April 22 , Bitcoin also started to rise at the same time , so a decline in the S&P 500 Index can cause Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) to decline . I expect the S&P 500 Index to drop to at least $5,313 AFTER breaking the uptrend line . Note: If the S&P 500 Index touches $5,712, we can expect more pumps. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),2-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pejman_zwin
11
Nifty Analysis EOD - 28th April 2025🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD - 28th April 2025 🔴 Nifty almost retraced 25th April’s fall — Back to Square One... What Next? 📈 Market Summary Nifty almost retraced 25th April’s fall — Back to Square One... What Next? As highlighted in previous sessions, the 24,330 ~ 24,360 zone once again proved to be a crucial resistance. Today, along with the past three sessions, we observed Nifty struggling to breach this wall — a fact clearly visible on the 75-minute time frame chart. Now the big question: ➡️ Tomorrow, can Nifty decisively breach 24,365 and sprint towards 24,500? Well, time will answer, but we must stay prepared for moves on either side. Intraday Walk: Nifty opened with a gap-up above the psychological 24,000 level at 24,070. With a slow yet steady bullish pace, it hit a high of 24,355. After touching this critical resistance, it spent almost 2 hours consolidating in the same zone. Finally, it closed at 24,312, defending most of its intraday gains — a strong show of resilience by the bulls. 🕯 Daily Candle Structure Today's Candle: 🟢 Strong Bullish Candle (Almost a Marubozu) Open: 24,070.25 High: 24,355.10 Low: 24,054.05 Close: 24,328.50 Change: +289.15 points (+1.20%) Key Observations: The session opened slightly above yesterday’s close and dipped just marginally. Buyers took charge from the very beginning, consistently pushing the index higher. Close near the day's high signals robust bullish momentum. The candle has a tiny lower shadow and minimal upper shadow, indicating persistent buying throughout the day. What It Implies: Clear bull dominance. Willingness among buyers to step up even at higher levels. If external cues remain supportive, momentum could continue into the next session. 🛡 Gladiator Strategy Update ATR: 344.11 IB Range: 182.1 (Medium IB) Market Structure: Balanced Trade Highlights: 1st Trade: Long Entry triggered at 10:05 AM — SL Hit 2nd Trade: Long Entry triggered at 11:25 AM — 1:2 Target Achieved Additional Trade (Discretionary Contra): Short Entry at 14:15 PM — 1:1.4 Target Achieved 🧾 Index Performance Snapshot Nifty 50: +289 Points (+1.20%) Bank Nifty: +768 Points (+1.41%) Nifty 500: +254 Points (+1.16%) Midcap: +870 Points (+1.62%) Smallcap: +130 Points (+0.78%) 📍 Key Levels to Watch Resistance Zones: 🔹 24,330 ~ 24,360 (Immediate hurdle) 🔹 24,480 ~ 24,540 (24,500 psychological level inside this zone) 🔹 24,800 Support Zones: 🔹 24,190 ~ 24,225 (Immediate support) 🔹 24,120 🔹 24,050 🔹 24,000 ~ 23,950 🔹 23,820 🔹 23,710 ~ 23,660 🔹 23,500 🔹 23,410 ~ 23,370 🔹 23,215 🎯 Final Thoughts "Structure is key. When levels work, respect them. When they break, adapt." The current structure indicates bulls have made a strong comeback, but remember — 24,330 ~ 24,360 remains the battleground. Only a decisive breakout above can ignite a rally towards 24,500+. Otherwise, we stay watchful for possible reversals. Stay sharp, stay prepared! ✏️ Disclaimer ✏️ This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
NSE:NIFTY
by kzatakia
XAUUSD - Gold trend reversed?!Gold is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the hourly timeframe and is in the specified pattern. The continuation of gold's movement depends on the breakdown of one of the two established trend lines, and after a valid breakdown, we expect to reach the established targets. In recent weeks, gold prices have experienced significant volatility. This precious metal, long regarded as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty, faced a decline in Monday’s trading session. The primary reason behind this drop was signs of easing trade tensions between the United States and China, leading to decreased demand for safe assets. This decline occurred while investors awaited clarity regarding ongoing trade negotiations between the two countries. Last week, media reports indicated that China exempted some American imports from 125% tariffs, signaling a reduction in bilateral tensions. In response, Donald Trump stated that trade talks were underway; however, this claim was rejected by China. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury Secretary announced that he was unaware of any active negotiations, further fueling market doubts. According to a recent Federal Reserve survey, participants cited the outflow of foreign capital from U.S. assets and a decline in the dollar’s value as potential new economic shocks. Some respondents believed that increased tariffs might only cause limited market disruptions. The survey indicated that despite market turmoil in April, prices remained elevated relative to fundamental indicators. Meanwhile, investors were closely awaiting key U.S. economic data set to be released over the coming week. While the previous week was relatively quiet in terms of economic indicators, market focus has shifted toward a series of critical U.S. employment reports. These include the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, the ADP private-sector employment report on Wednesday, and weekly jobless claims on Thursday—all paving the way for the most crucial event of the week: the April Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, to be released Friday morning. Beyond these reports, several major events are scheduled in the economic calendar: Canada’s federal election on Monday, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday, preliminary first-quarter GDP data, pending home sales figures, and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday, followed by the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday—all of which could impact market sentiment. On another front, the China Gold Association reported that gold consumption fell by 5.96% in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 290,492 tons. Although gold jewelry demand declined by 26.85%, investment-related gold demand surged by 29.81%, reflecting investors’ pursuit of safe assets amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Domestic gold production in China increased by 1.49%, and assets held in gold ETFs rose sharply by 327.73%, indicating heightened financial caution among Chinese consumers in 2025. A recent report from Goldman Sachs suggests that the downward trend of the U.S. dollar is far from over and that the currency remains significantly overvalued. Jan Hatzius, the bank’s chief economist, stated that despite the dollar’s recent 5% drop, it still stands roughly two standard deviations above its long-term real average since 1973. Historically, such levels have marked the beginning of multi-year correction cycles for the dollar. Similar patterns occurred during the mid-1980s and early 2000s when the U.S. dollar experienced declines of around 25% to 30% following such valuations. Based on this, Goldman Sachs expects a similar scenario to unfold in the coming years. One of the key structural factors fueling this anticipated correction is the portfolio composition of global investors. Specifically, non-U.S. investors hold about $22 trillion worth of assets in the United States, roughly one-third of their total portfolios.Half of these investments are unhedged against currency risk, which could lead to sharp fluctuations in the currency markets if investor sentiment shifts. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that even a modest reallocation of global capital away from U.S. assets could significantly lower the dollar’s value. Therefore, they view the dollar’s gradual yet sustained decline not as a temporary fluctuation, but as a long-term structural trend.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Stock Market Waiting for a New Stimulus?!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index continues to move upwards towards the specified supply zone, one can look for further Nasdaq short positions with a risk-reward ratio. Last week, financial markets experienced a brief sigh of relief as U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to ease tensions by signaling a limited retreat in the tariff war with China, sparking hopes for reduced friction. However, this optimism quickly faded once it became clear that Trump’s retreat was neither substantial nor impactful. From Beijing’s perspective, the trade war has transcended economic concerns, becoming an issue of national pride and sovereignty. As a result, China, the world’s second-largest economy, is not retreating as easily as Trump anticipated. This stance has evolved into a significant challenge for the White House. U.S. officials indicated that tariffs of 145% could be reduced within two to three weeks if an agreement is reached. Nonetheless, according to Chinese authorities, negotiations have yet to even begin, raising doubts about Trump’s negotiation tactics. Additionally, other concessions, such as reducing tariffs on American automakers, remain uncertain, and Trump has even threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian car imports. This environment not only fails to clarify U.S. trade policy but also deepens uncertainty for domestic businesses. Although the White House claims it is monitoring markets closely and Trump is eager to strike deals with key partners, these assurances have not alleviated concerns about the future of the U.S. economy. In the upcoming week, critical economic data could either intensify or ease current worries. On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence Index for April and the JOLTS job openings data for March will be released. The highlight, however, will be the preliminary estimate of GDP growth, scheduled for Wednesday. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts a 2.2% annualized contraction in the U.S. economy for Q1 2025. Meanwhile, a Reuters survey of economists projects a modest 0.4% growth rate, a significant slowdown from Q4’s 2.4% growth. Accompanying these reports, the ADP private-sector employment data and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will be published. The core PCE for March is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.1% and an annual rise of 2.5%, down from 2.8% previously. Personal spending is anticipated to maintain its 0.4% monthly growth, reflecting resilient household expenditures. Additionally, on Wednesday, the Chicago PMI and pending home sales figures will be released. Thursday will bring the Challenger layoffs data for April, but market focus will be on the ISM manufacturing PMI, expected to drop from 49 to 47.9. The week’s main event will be Friday’s release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Forecasts suggest job growth will slow from 228,000 in March to 130,000 in April, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. Wages are projected to rise by 0.3%.If NFP and PCE data come in weaker than expected, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in June could intensify, although the likelihood of a cut in May will remain low. Such data would likely be bearish for the U.S. dollar but could support equity markets if recession fears do not dominate sentiment. Some Federal Reserve officials have suggested that if economic conditions deteriorate significantly, rate cuts could start as early as June. Currently, the Fed has maintained high rates to combat inflation but may lower them to support growth and prevent a sharp rise in unemployment if necessary. Trump’s trade wars pose a dual risk of increasing inflation while hurting employment, complicating the Fed’s monetary policy strategy. Presently, the Fed is in a “wait-and-see” mode, but several officials indicated last week that cuts could begin if economic data worsens. Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, told CNBC on Thursday that the Fed might lower rates starting in June if signs of economic weakening due to Trump’s sporadic tariffs appear. Christopher Waller, a Fed Board member, stated on Bloomberg TV that he could foresee rate cuts if the labor market collapses but does not expect such a scenario before July. On Thursday, Waller remarked, “It would not be surprising to see an increase in layoffs and a higher unemployment rate, especially if major tariffs return. I would expect faster rate cuts once signs of severe labor market deterioration emerge.” These comments highlight the Fed’s current dilemma as it awaits clearer evidence of significant economic fallout from Trump’s trade wars. The Federal Reserve’s mandate is to maintain low inflation and unemployment levels. Its primary tool, the federal funds rate, influences borrowing costs across the economy. The Fed can stimulate growth by lowering rates or curb inflation by raising them. Economists warn that Trump’s tariffs present the risk of simultaneously driving up inflation while damaging employment, forcing the Fed to prioritize which challenge to address first.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND