SPY Channel Analysis with Levels (Week in Review Part III)POST FOMC MINUTES: 0DTE Credit Spreads, Long Trades, and LONG POSITIONS
We must start with the TRENDLINE BREAKOUT that has been on our charts for weeks, and with the FOMC news behind us, the question for Thursday Premarket is do we reverse and drop during the Opening Range (OR) as we have seen so many times post FOMC.
THURS: We got our answer pretty quick on THURSDAY with a GAP OPEN and immediate move over the WHITE SUPPLY Zone with the 1st ORANGE-BUY TARGET being hit in the Opening Range. Our AM Session included an Opening Range Breakout (ORB), so we held our LONG $ES_F and sold 0DTE $SPX Put Credit Spreads (PCS) under 3950 for Thursday...both of them printed. Our $SPY Traders still had 405.02 as Targets on their Daily charts from previous levels, and that level was hit immediately following a breach of the GRAY Line (R2-404.60). From there, we looked for a move towards the 2nd ORANGE Line (TGT 2) but SPY just couldn't quite get there. Any long positions cold have used the Daily 405.02 or the Intraday R2 (404.60) as a STOP EXIT for huge gains. SPY pushed almost 9pts on Thursday.
FRI: In looking closer to the INTRADAY LEVELS, you need to recognize that FRIDAY's RED SELL TRIGGER was almost exactly where the previous day's BUY TARGET #2 was located. How can a SPY Level go from an extreme upside target to an actual SELL TRIGGER the following day? We cannot give the WHY, but rather just use the levels from our algo and trade what the day gives us. With the GAP OPEN, we cleared above the OVER/UNDER (not shown) and the GREEN BUY TRIGGER (408.57) in the first candle. From there, SPY hit the WHITE SUPPLY Zone early, and our upside targets were 411.02 (white dots from Daily chart) and 1st ORANGE TGT Line at 413. We anticipated the LOWS for the DAY (LoD) were in, so many held long $ES_F and others sold 0DTE $SPX PCS at 4050 and ultimately 4085. It was not until midway through our PM Session that SPY took out TARGET 1 (413) and then set it's sights on the Daily 415.15 (white dotted line) and Intraday R2 at 415.35 --which is EXACTLY where SPY CLOSED!!!
What a late day squeeze...this was discussed and expected from the start of Power Hour!
Pivotstrategy
SPX: Almost REVERSING! Watch these key points for now!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today!
Again, the 3,979 worked as a resistance, and this is not a surprise at all. We've been talking about the 3,979 since last week, and we know that as long as the index stays under this price, it can’t do a decent reversal. The link to my previous analysis is below this post, as usual.
At least, the index filled the last gap, making it an Exhaustion Gap, which is a sign of a reversal ahead, but again, in my view, we still must break the 3,979, as this will trigger a Pivot Point in the 1h chart.
Another interesting thing is that we are trying to break the purple trend line in the daily chart, and this will surely put an end to the bearish bias. This alone is not enough for a bullish reversal, but by adding the other signs we have (Exhaustion Gap and possible Pivot Point in the 1h chart), we can build a nice bullish thesis.
If the price finds a resistance at this purple line, and loses today’s low, we could drop again to the 3,858 (previous support).
By breaking the 3,979, I see the index retesting the area around the 21 ema and the 4,090 in the daily chart, in the short-term. By breaking the 4,090, it’ll trigger a Double Bottom chart pattern in the daily chart, a mid-term reversal, that could take the SPX to the 4,500 again.
I do daily analysis on the SPX, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my insights!
Range setup for 5th April, Things to know before Opening BellMarket Opening: Flat Positive/Partial Gap down;
Overall Structure: Uptrend;
Sentiments: Neutral (47%);
Market Mood(FGI): 87% Extreme Greed, likely to be turned down;
PCR: 1.27 Bullish , IVP:46%;
Target: 18150, 18250, 18450, 18600;
Stoploss: 17900, 17800, 17600, 17450;
Entry Decision: Buy Above 18150 or Sell Below 17900 (Suggesting to go trend side).
Market maybe turn down after spending time(range) at upper level, OR Probability of pullback directly to retest at 17600.
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*P.S: Identify the zone, Follow the trend direction, Trade after trend confirmation.
We rigorously tested the strategy and is 88.6% accurate. This strategy is for knowledge purposes only & is subjected to market risk.
BTC BREAKDOWN — Holiday EditionIt has been noted that Q4 has been the best time for Bitcoin gains. With the holiday seasons rolling in, we’re looking for another period of growth in the markets.
1. BTC is currently at a relevant level of support
2. It is also approaching a potential pivot point (around 58K) within the trend channel.
3. If BTC respects the support level, it should continue bullish towards TARGET 1 @ around $65K (previous resistance), then TARGET 2 @ around $69K (previous high).
(F) Ford sitting in consolidation, looking to break a wedge. Scenario 1: The pivot trend continue with a break out of consolidation and out of its current wedge.
Scenario 2: The wedge breaks down and finds support on the prior trend
Scenario 3: Consolidation continues and the wedge is broken to meet support and continue on a bull run
Scenario 4: Wedge breaks down, support is broken, and a reversal in trend is confirmed.
BTCUSD PIVOT INDICATOR** The Channel Up and Pivot trend indicators**
Bitcoin is trading inside a Channel Up on the 1D time-frame which has been lately supported by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Since the uptrend started on the July 20 low, the price has filled all major Fibonacci retracement levels except for one, the 0.786 (which is roughly at 54420). That would make an ideal technical Higher High on the Channel Up if hit in the next few days.
** The RSI **
However we need to consider the Lower Highs trend-line on the 1D RSI . This is diverging from the price action as it is giving Higher Highs on the Channel Up for BTC . The longer it holds, the more likely a correction is possible. However a break above the LH trend-line may initiate a strong rally to fill the All Time High ( ATH ) Gap.
** The LMACD **
At the same time the LMACD is about to make a Bullish Cross. A complete formation would be very bullish for BTCUSD as the last one on July 22 was exactly at the start of this strong rebound.
What's your current view on this? Is this all a strong bullish combination, or the RSI divergence can spoil the party? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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GBPUSD SELL NOW (short-term sell 4H)The pair reached the top of the channel and I am expecting 50% pullback before it may brake the channel above. Pair also bounces from the resistance 1,3900 and strong last week and current pivots therefore it will be difficult to brake it further. OBV is below the 200 EMA which gives negative sign here. GBP economic data was quite week this week so I see no sense to the current move upwards as well. Let's make some pips!
BTCUSD Pivot PointsBTCUSD Daily
Looking at Traditional Pivot Points and the reoccurring price action between Pivots “P” and “R1” and highlighted by a Bar Pattern.
As defined by TradingView
“Pivot Point analysis is a technique of determining key levels that price may react to. Pivot points tend to function as support or resistance and can be turning points. This technique is commonly used by day traders, though the concepts are valid on various timeframes. There are several methods of identifying the exact points. Common types of pivot points are Traditional, Fibonacci, Woodie, Classic, Camarilla and DM and each type has its own calculation method.
Most use a variation of significant prices such as established highs, lows, opening and closing prices and then apply a calculation to determine these points. They all calculate additional support and resistance levels alongside the pivot points. They can be used to determine when to enter or exit trades or to determine the range of a market. Conservative traders look for additional confirmation before entering a trade. Whether pivot points are used alone or in combination with other techniques, they are a useful tool in a technical trader's toolbox.”
The Purple Bar Pattern is a copy of the last move from “P” to “R1” and if it plays out it will identify that the Key pivot sits alongside the previous top and could be used as Daily Resistance.
Do you use “Pivots”?
"DISCLAIMER: NO ADVICE. The information presented here is general in nature and is for education purposes only. Nothing should be considered to be advice. You should consult with an appropriate professional for specific advice tailored to your situation."
ETHUSD M15Tel pour le BTCUSD, Les prix sont en dessous du point pivot et ont cassé le VWAP à la baisse. Nous avons donc une forte probabilité, de vente. Mais actuellement nous sommes sur un niveau de support important S1. Il va donc falloir attendre la cassure de S1. Si non, les prix pourraient repartir ) la hausse et casser le VWAP , puis le point Pivot par la suite. Ce qui pourrait engendrer un mouvement haussier. Donc nous attendons la cassure de S1. Donc, En cas de cassure de notre support S1, pourrait passer en Short et viser le niveau S2.
BTC/USD Nearly All Key Historic Support/Resistance LevelsI have made the chart available to use/edit (Link in the comments, if it gets approved)
You can use the object tree tab (bottom right) to hide or show certain resistance groups to make it less cluttered.
Don't take the prediction too seriously, was just a conservative estimate for fun.
Key:
Multicoloured horizontal - Fibonacci extention from previous bear market bottom to bull market top
Orange horizontal - Previous Highs
Red diagonals - Previous 2 bull run peaks (probably new floor, I would be bearish if broke below)
White diagonals - Pivot point (Key highs and lows charted across a key pivot point)
Purple diagonals - Uptrend bottoms (Deeper correction more likely if breaks below)
Cyan/Blue EMA - 15/55 EMAs (If the 15 falls below the 55 on D/W candles possible indication of correction and/or bearmarket)
Yellow/Orange MA - Golden Cross (50/200 MA on D/W candles, yellow falling below orange is bad news, moving above good news)
Red MA - (21 MA on W candles, historically BTC has used this as support during bullruns, ie good buy points, fall below is bad news)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
Pivot Ranges for MarchLots of room to move in March. The convergence of this weeks weekly S2, monthly S1, and the fib 78.6% (Jan. ATH) lines at 33k is happy news for bears. Lots of resistance points on the way back up for bulls.
I will DCA this month in the daily S1-S1 zones and watching the BTC dominance to fall for chances with alts.
Happy trading!
Pivot Support ZonesThe previous idea on the daily time scale was confirmed. A daily close below 54.3k (monthly R2 pivot point) and the next support level would be at 48.8k, which is right were we are at.
Following the same idea, if we get a daily close below the 48.8k level and next strong support level is in the 41k range.
The convergence of weekly and monthly pivot points as well as the previous ATH at 41k strongly suggests we might retest this level.
#DCAthedip
End of the month close: 48k, 61k, or 68k?The key range seems to be 54.5-57.3k
A close above this range and the next resistance should be at 61k. If that is broken 68k is definitely possible by the end of the month.
A close below that range and we could easily revisit 48k before moving back up again. There should be strong support here (including mine) with everyone and their grandma buying the dips.
Or we could just consolidate in the key range for the next week before making a move. What are your thoughts?