Optimal Position Size May Reduce RisksOptimal Position Size May Reduce Risks
Position sizing in trading is a crucial yet often overlooked aspect of risk management. It's the art of determining how much capital to allocate to each trade, balancing the potential for effective trading with the need to protect your investment. This article delves into the principles of position sizing, offering insights into how traders may optimise their strategies to potentially reduce risk and maximise their trading opportunities.
What Is Position Sizing in Trading?
Position sizing, or trade sizing, is a fundamental concept in trading that determines how much capital is allocated to a specific trade. This process isn't about maximising profits; it's crucial for managing risk. The right position size may minimise the potential loss on each trade relative to the overall capital, potentially ensuring that a single loss doesn't significantly impact the trader's account.
In essence, determining trade sizes is a balancing act. It involves calculating the appropriate amount to invest based on various factors like account size, risk tolerance, and market conditions. This calculated approach contrasts sharply with random or emotional decision-making, where the size of a trade might be based on a hunch or a desire to recoup losses.
The Role of Leverage in Position Sizing
Leverage in trading is comparable to a double-edged sword. It allows traders to control larger positions with a smaller amount of capital, effectively amplifying both potential returns and risks. When a trader employs leverage, they borrow capital, increasing their trading power.
However, when combined with strict position sizing and stop-loss placement, leverage serves a different role. It doesn't necessarily increase the risk but rather reallocates capital more efficiently.
For example, if someone uses leverage to open a position, they're required to commit only a fraction of the trade's total value, known as the margin. If they’re risking 1% of their account balance on a single trade and never move their stop loss, the trader’s loss is limited to this 1%, regardless of how much leverage they use. The only difference is that lower leverage uses more capital for margin and vice versa.
Key Factors Influencing Position Size
When it comes to determining the right position size in trading, two key factors come into play, both crucial for tailoring risk management to individual needs:
- Risk Tolerance: Every person has a unique comfort level with risk. Some might be inclined to use a larger proportion of their account balance on a given trade, accepting higher potential losses for greater potential gains, while others may prefer a more conservative stance, prioritising capital preservation.
- Market Volatility: The level of volatility in the market significantly influences position sizing. In highly volatile markets, where price swings are more pronounced, reducing position size can be a prudent strategy to potentially limit exposure to sudden and severe market movements.
Calculating Optimal Position Sizes
Understanding how to calculate position sizes is a cornerstone of effective trading. The process involves several steps that balance risk management with the potential for returns. Here’s a detailed breakdown:
- Determining Risk Tolerance Per Trade: First, decide what percentage of your trading capital you are willing to risk on a single trade. A common guideline is the 1% rule, meaning if you have $10,000, you will lose no more than $100 per trade.
- Setting a Stop-Loss Order: This is a predetermined point where a losing trade will be closed to prevent further losses. The stop-loss is set based on market analysis and does not exceed the risk tolerance.
- Calculating the Risk per Share/Unit: Subtract the stop-loss level from the entry price. For example, $50 (entry price) in the stock market - $45 (stop-loss) equals a $5 risk per share.
- Determining Position Size: Divide the dollar amount you’re willing to risk by the risk per share/unit. Using the $100 risk on a $10,000 account, divide this by the $5 risk per share: $100/$5 = 20 shares. Thus, you should buy 20 shares to stay within your 1% limit.
As a result, if your stop-loss is triggered, you’d only lose 1% of your total capital.
Position Sizing Strategies
In trading, there are two commonly used position-sizing strategies:
- Fixed Percentage Model: This strategy involves risking a fixed percentage of the total trading capital on each trade. For example, one might consistently risk 2% of their capital per trade. This method automatically adjusts the dollar amount at risk based on the current account size, potentially ensuring that losses are proportionate to the account's value.
- Dollar Amount Risk Model: Here, traders potentially lose a set dollar amount on every trade, regardless of the account size. For instance, a trader may decide to risk $500 on each trade. This model is simpler and easier to manage, especially for traders with less experience, but doesn't adjust for changes in the total account value, which could be a drawback as the account grows or shrinks.
The Impact of Position Sizing on Trading Performance
Optimal position sizing is risk-reducing and plays a critical role in a trader's overall performance. By allocating the right amount of capital to each trade, they potentially can manage potential losses more effectively, preserving their trading capital over the long term. This approach is believed to help traders be sure that a series of losing trades does not significantly deplete the account, allowing them to remain in the market.
Moreover, optimal position sizing may contribute to emotional stability. Traders are less likely to experience extreme stress or make impulsive decisions when they know their risk is controlled and losses are within acceptable limits. This psychological benefit cannot be overstated, as a calm and focused mindset is essential for making rational trading decisions.
The Bottom Line
In essence, mastering position sizing is key to balancing potential gains with prudent risk management. Remember, optimal position sizing is about protecting your capital while maximising opportunities and is a valuable tool in long-term, sustainable trading.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Positionsizecalculator
Position Size Calculation with Fees - Handle any LeverageExample:
The account size is $4500.
We risk 2%, 90 cash, for this 2R trade.
If the trade idea is a success
we would now have 4678 cash in our account
a profit of: 178 cash
And if loss, a total of 4410 cash, 90 cash loss)
Is this correct?
Explanation:
The example seems correct but only without the fees in calculation.
Even small fees like e.g. 0.04% Taker (market orders) and 0.02% Maker (limit orders) add up a lot. A lot!
The example does need a position size of $56250 , which would be $22.5 in fees just to open the position and the same amount again when the stop loss (market order) triggers or $11.25 when exit with a limit order.
The example does clearly need a leverage of 15 or higher to open that position size.
- Tradeable balance with 15x leverage: 4500 * 15 = 67500
- And to get a loss of 90 cash within 0.16 %: 56250 / 100 * 0.16 = 90
See Image on Chart: Calculation without fees
We will be fine with any kind of Leverage if we calculate it like that on every trade. The PnL is calculated from the real account balance. So we are on the right track to not blow our account.
If we calculate it with the Fees in mind, the example with 0.04% fees for open and close, then the position size would be $28125
See Image on Chart: Calculation with fees
The calculations show, even when it hits the Profit Target, the real Risk Reward lowers by a large amount . (The Example uses the same taker fee for open and close)
I personally recommend to automate those ever recurring calculations and set the orders via an API. Relative easy to code in e.g. Python.
I'm not allowed to link any external links here but some tools can be found on my Twitter (I'm not really active there otherwise):
- Some link to a Microsoft Excel sheet, which was used for the calculation images. It may be useful for some, just make a copy.
- And a public open source API Trade App can be found on my GitHub, link in the same Twitter feed.
No other funny links else.
And as last goodie: A small snippet example used in my automated strategies in PineScript, strategy.equity represents the account balance:
//Example 0.001 is minumum order
varip input_mathround = input(3, 'Decimal Math Round Size')
varip pnllosspercent = input(2, 'Dynamic PnL Loss - Percent of Balance')
getLongSizeDynamic(_entry, _sl) =>
pnl = strategy.equity / 100 * pnllosspercent
sl_percent = (_entry - _sl)/_entry
size_cash = pnl / (sl_percent*100) * 100
size_r = 1 / _entry * size_cash
size = math.round(size_r, input_mathround)
size
There are for sure different ways to optimise the math for the own liking.
This 'tutorial' is meant to give small insight into a proper position sizing, that you may too will not fear the leverage as useful tool when used correct.
With the calculations above, no matter if 10, 50, 100 or even crazy 1000x Leverage shall not blow our accounts! Still always keep the fees in mind, they take our money!
Position sizing 101 - how to avoid crippling lossesPosition sizing is determining the correct size of the position based on the amount of money you risk on the particular trade.
Before you can do that, you need to figure out what is the maximum acceptable risk of the trade.
That risk is usually expressed as a % of your balance, that you are willing to lose.
To make sure you don’t lose more than this amount traders set a Stop Loss order which is the real maximum exposure of your position.
If you don’t use a stop loss, you are exposing your entire portfolio!
Where to put a stop loss?
That’s where Technical Analysis can be handy. The majority of retail traders would look at the chart to find out – usually behind some support/resistance level or based on some volatility indicator, such as ATR
Rule of thumb:
Risk between 1-3% of your portfolio balance on each position. This way any single individual loss won’t wipe your account and break your spirit. And more importantly, even a string of losses will leave you with enough ammunition to recoup the losses.
Have a clear approach to risk:
1. Set a risk limit for each trade, asset in general, day, week, and month (you won’t risk more than X account)
2. Determine the right position size and start small
3. Increase the position size of trades slowly if your account grows
4. Lower size or switch back to paper trading if your account doesn’t
Two types of position sizing methods: Fixed and flexible
Fixed position size
Using the same position size for every trade
Good for finding out if your strategy has an edge
Make sure you come back and reevaluate position size periodically.
Flexible position size
Using a percentage of the current balance
Cluster of wins makes every following win larger
Cluster of losses makes every following loss smaller
How to calculate the correct position size:
You need to know
1. Trading account size
2. Acceptable risk (in % per each trade)
3. Invalidation point (in form of a distance from the open price)
The formulae:
Position size = Trading account size x Acceptable risk / Invalidation
Example:
1. Trading account size = $10,000
2. Acceptable risk = 1%
3. Invalidation point = 4% drop in market price
Position size = $10,000 * 0,01 / 0,04 = $2,500
This way you will always risk losing $100 no matter where your Stop Loss goes! If Stop Loss must be wider, say 8%, the calculation is:
Position size = $10,000 * 0,01 / 0,08 = $1,250
Doubling the distance to our stop loss has us reducing our position size by half to maintain the same possible loss.
How to set position size in Tradingview
1. Use the Long position or Short position drawing tool
2. Input your account balance
3. Select the risk you're willing to undertake - either as a % of your account balance or as a monetary value
4. Enter the market price of your Stop Loss
5. Look at the "Quantity" field in the drawing tool = that is the position size you should use to adhere to your risk settings.