Get started

Powell

Bitcoin Cycles: History Repeating Itself?Bitcoin has always moved in cycles — a strong impulsive rally 📈 (1), followed by a healthy correction 🔻 (2), then a breakout above the previous high 🔓 (3). Looking at the chart, the current price action is following this same rhythm once again. After the last correction, BTC bounced strongly, retested previous highs, and is now consolidating before its next potential move. If this pattern continues to repeat, the next leg could take Bitcoin toward the $140,000 target 🎯 — aligning perfectly with the upper bound of the long-term channel. 👉 The past doesn’t guarantee the future, but BTC’s structure suggests the market might just be writing the same story again. 💬 What’s your bias here? Are you bullish or waiting for a deeper pullback? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
18
EURUSD Breakdown or Double Bottom? Catalysts at Jackson Hole!EURUSD has broken below the key 1.16 support ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, raising the stakes for both bulls and bears as markets become more aware of the likelihood of a hawkish stance. But will it be the case? Let's see what the possible scenarios are at play. Bearish Catalysts : Hawkish Fed Signals: Recent FOMC minutes and a potential hawkish tone from Chair Powell could push EURUSD lower. Rate cut odds for December have dropped sharply, and further Fed focus on inflation may accelerate downside. Technical Breakdown: The loss of 1.16 opens the door to 1.1530, 1.1460, and possibly 1.14. No clear bullish divergence on RSI suggests more downside risk. Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty around the Ukraine ceasefire could weigh further on the euro. Bullish Catalysts : Oversold Conditions: EURUSD is approaching oversold territory, with a potential double bottom forming near 1.1530/1.1460. Dovish Surprise: If Powell signals concerns over the labour market or hints at a pause, a short-covering rally could target 1.16 and above. ECB Commentary: Any unexpected hawkishness from ECB President Lagarde could support the euro. Key Levels to Watch : Support: 1.1530, 1.1460, 1.1400 Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1660 Trading Plan : Volatility is likely post-symposium. Bears may look for breakdowns and rallies to resistance for entries, while bulls might watch for reversal signals at key supports if the Fed surprises dovishly. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
3
FOMC mins could be rates catalyst if Powell is neutral at JHSTraders are laser-focused on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which could prove to be the most significant market-moving event ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium if Powell offers no insights. With markets already pricing in an 85% chance of a rate cut at the September meeting, the tone and details within the minutes will be crucial. The last FOMC meeting saw a strong division among members, with the decision to hold rates steady hinging on strong jobs data—a data point that was later revised downward, fueling speculation about a potential shift in the Fed’s outlook. The upcoming minutes offer the Fed an opportunity to clarify its stance, especially in light of the softer jobs numbers and mixed inflation signals. Traders will be watching closely for any signs that the Fed is becoming more dovish, which could reinforce expectations for a September cut, or for hints of caution that might temper those hopes. Ultimately, while Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole will set the broader policy tone, the FOMC minutes tonight may provide the first real clues about how the Fed is weighing recent economic developments and what that means for rate policy in the months ahead. The market is more dovish than the Fed’s own projections, so any hawkish signals could prompt a repricing. Gold is inversely correlated with the dollar and Fed policy. If Powell is less dovish, gold could see downside, with key support at $3,270 and potential for a move down to $2,934 if the triangle pattern breaks lower. Upside targets, if the pattern breaks higher, are $3,773–$3,785, with a 66% statistical chance of reaching the measured move. The current price action suggests a symmetrical triangle, which is a neutral pattern but slightly favours continuation of the prevailing trend (bullish in this case). Watch for a break of $3,270 for downside or a move above the triangle for upside momentum. RSI divergence and an ending wedge pattern hint at a possible reversal, so traders should stay alert for shifts following the FOMC minutes and Powell’s speech. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by ThinkMarkets
1
EUR/USD Long Setup: Riding the Wave After Powell’s Dovish TalkEUR/USD Long Opportunity Post-Powell Speech Following Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at the 2025 Jackson Hole Symposium, the EUR/USD is showing strong bullish potential. With the pair currently trading at 1.16626, I’m looking to enter buy positions targeting a move up to 1.18295. Key Points: Trade Direction: Strictly bullish. I see no reason to sell given the USD weakness post-Powell. Entry Zone: Buying opportunities around 1.16626 or on a confirmed breakout above 1.1700. Target: Aiming for 1.18295 (key resistance level). Stop Loss: Place below 1.1597 to manage risk. Market Context: The dovish Fed outlook supports EUR/USD upside, making this an ideal week for capturing momentum and passing prop firm trading challenges. Risk Management: Use 1-2% position sizing to navigate volatility and ensure a favorable risk-reward ratio (targeting at least 2:1). This setup offers a high-probability trade for swing traders and those aiming to pass funding challenges this week. Stay disciplined and monitor price action around key levels. Disclaimer: Trading involves risk. Always conduct your own analysis and consult a financial advisor.
Long
by Tarsi_Fx
Powell Delivers at Jackson Hole - NVDA and PCE Up NextNearly a 200% ATR move today in the S&P SPY didn't close beyond all-time highs QQQ didn't close beyond all-time highs DIA did close above all-time highs IWM continues its strong rally for August I'm noticing some serious rotation into small cap, mid cap, and seeing the markets allocate outside of Mag7, Tech, and AI Powell all but guaranteed a September rate cut and the market loved it - yet prices aren't necessarily higher (yet). I still think the Aug-Oct window is ripe for a small correction and pullback to offer up better positioning for end of year NVDA Earnings next week Wednesday US PCE and Core PCE Friday to close out the month I'm curious if the SPX 6500 resistance level will continue to hold firm - let's see Thanks for watching!!!
TVC:US10YLong
by ChrisPulver
ADA/USDT | Cardano Breaks All Targets – Next Stop: Above $1?By analyzing the Cardano (ADA) chart on the 3-day timeframe, we can see that the price has surged exactly as expected, beautifully hitting all three targets at $0.85, $0.93, and $1! This move delivered an impressive 48% return. Following Jerome Powell’s remarks about the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months, Cardano saw renewed demand and has already risen from $0.82 to $0.91 so far. I expect this bullish momentum to continue, with a potential break and hold above the $1 level soon. Hope you made the most out of this analysis! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
3
EUR/USD eyes rebound ahead of Powell speechThe euro has come under mild pressure in recent days, weighed down by the dollar’s rebound and the lack of progress on Ukraine. Today’s spotlight is firmly on Powell. If he manages to steer market expectations back toward a coin-flip for a September rate cut, EUR/USD could slip towards the 1.1500 support zone — a key level that i think is unlikely to give way in the near term. However, a clear shift in Powell’s tone toward the dovish side could lift EUR/USD back into the 1.18s, eventually opening the path towards 1.20. Over the longer run, the outlook for the euro remains constructive. The ECB is largely finished with rate cuts, while Germany is rolling out a sizeable fiscal programme. Although the stimulus may only begin to show modest results later this year, its full impact is expected to become more meaningful in 2026 and beyond. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
SPX500 Market Outlook | Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech in FocusSPX500 – Overview U.S. Sectors in Spotlight Ahead of Fed’s Jackson Hole Gathering Wall Street is awaiting confirmation of a potential September interest rate cut when Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday — a potentially pivotal event for markets, particularly for rate-sensitive sectors. This year’s gathering comes after a week of mixed inflation data, as consumer and wholesale price reports gave conflicting signals on how well the U.S. economy is handling President Trump’s import tariffs, complicating the Fed’s policy outlook. After cutting rates by 50 bps in September 2024 and 25 bps in both November and December, the Fed has since held steady. Rising expectations of another cut next month have buoyed homebuilders, banks, and retailers, though a hawkish surprise from Powell could weigh on these sectors. 🔎 Technical Outlook Bearish Scenario: As long as price trades below 6389, downside pressure remains, targeting 6366 and, if broken, extending toward 6321. Bullish Scenario: A confirmed 1H/4H close above 6389 would open the way toward 6406 – 6425, with a stronger push possible toward 6468. 📍 Key Levels Pivot: 6389 Support: 6366 – 6341 – 6321 Resistance: 6406 – 6425 – 6468 ⚠️ Expect heightened volatility during Powell’s Jackson Hole speech — risk management is essential.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
BTC stuck 112k–115k: fade the bounce, watch Powell__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is consolidating below stacked resistances (115k–117k) after failing under 124k. Price is retesting a liquidity pocket at 112k while HTF supports still hold — an orderly pullback. Momentum: 📉 Bearish intraday within an overall bullish HTF trend — ongoing correction below 115k. Key levels: - Resistances (4H/6H/1D) : 114.6k–115.0k; 116.8k–117.0k; 119.9k–120.0k - Supports (4H/1D/1W) : 112.0k–112.3k; 109.0k–109.5k; 98.5k–99.5k Volumes: Overall normal; moderate on 4H — active pressure without extremes. Multi-timeframe signals: Intradays (15m→6H) trending down; 12H/1D/1W still up; aggregate trend down → correction under 114.7k/115k, repeated defenses at 112k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: SELL (moderate risk-off) — confirms intraday weakness; caution while < 115k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: primary trend still constructive, but intraday flow is selling — favor “sell the bounce” into 115k until that pivot is reclaimed. Global bias: NEUTRAL SELL below 115k; invalidation if 4H close > 115k . Opportunities: - 🔻 Rejection short at 114.6k–115.0k → target 113.0k then 112.2k (invalid. > 115.6k). - 🔼 Reaction long on a 111.8k–112.1k sweep with confirmation → target 113.5k then 114.7k (invalid. < 111.6k). - 🔼 Break & hold > 115k (4H) → extension to 116.8k–117.0k then 120k (invalid. < 114.2k). Risk zones / invalidations: - A firm break < 112k (4H) unlocks 111.2k/109.3k; - 1D close < 109.3k = risk of STRONG SELL toward 100k/98.5k. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Powell at Jackson Hole today → could drive a 112k break or a squeeze > 115k. - US margin debt at a record (~$1.02T) → fragility if volatility spikes. - Inflation watch: rising oil and Japan CPI > 2% → temper near-term Fed easing hopes. Action plan: - Primary plan (rejection short) : Entry 114.6k–115.0k / Stop 115.6k / TP1 113.5k, TP2 112.5k, TP3 112.0k → R/R ~2–2.8 depending on fill. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Intraday timeframes keep correcting inside the 112k–117k range, while HTFs remain intact above 109.3k–112k. 12H/1D/1W: Uptrend structure intact above 109.3k; 115k is the pivot — reclaim > 115k reopens 116.8k–117k then 120k amid “normal” volume (no capitulation). 6H/4H/2H/1H/30m/15m: Lower highs/lows; compression under 114.7k/115k; repeated defenses at 112k; a 30m bullish divergence (contrarian) could fuel a bounce to 113.1k–113.5k without changing trend yet. Major divergences/confluences: Support confluence 111.8k–112.3k (seen across 6 TFs) vs priority sell zone 114.6k–115.0k — key axis for the next directional move. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Powell’s speech, elevated market leverage, and derivatives-led on-chain dynamics frame a cautious risk-off backdrop that can catalyze a range breakout. Macro events: Powell today with a split Fed → likely cautious guidance; US margin debt at record (~$1.02T) → vulnerability if vol spikes; rising oil + Japan CPI > 2% → dampen near-term Fed easing. Bitcoin analysis: Testing ~112k; many anticipate a sweep and quick buyback; weekly Kijun near ~99.4k echoes the 98.5k–100k HTF support; fresh USDT minted to Binance/Bitfinex suggests added liquidity/volatility. On-chain data: Derivatives-led market (elevated OI then ~-$2.6B purge); slowing spot inflows despite recent ATH; no clear capitulation → downside more mechanical than spot-driven. Expected impact: NEUTRAL SELL bias while < 115k; macro headlines may trigger either a false break below 112k or a squeeze above 115k — manage risk tightly around events. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Intraday correction below 115k, HTF structure still intact above 109.3k. - Trend: 📉 Bearish intraday / 📈 Constructive on HTF. - Key setup: Sell rejection at 114.6k–115k toward 112k, or tactical long on defended sweep of 112k. - Macro: Powell + high leverage = elevated risk of directional spikes. Stay disciplined: execute the plan, respect invalidations, and adapt quickly around headlines. ⚠️ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
1
Powell’s Jackson Hole speech: Key risks for SPX, DXY, and goldTraders are watching and waiting for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The baseline expectation is that Powell will avoid committing to any move at the September meeting. Instead, he is likely to repeat that decisions will depend on the full set of economic data released between now and then. If Powell were to even weakly signal a rate cut in September, the S&P 500 could rally. However, the reaction may be limited since markets are already pricing in a high probability of easing. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders see a 71% chance of a quarter-point cut in September. Looking beyond September, a hint of rate cuts in October, November, or December could weaken the U.S. dollar and provide support for gold.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
NZD/USD: Powell the last hope for Kiwi bullsThe significant dovish shift from the RBNZ at its August meeting has left the Kiwi dollar on the backfoot, closing Wednesday beneath former support at .5850 and the key 200DMA. With Fed rate-cut pricing already so rich heading into Jackson Hole, only an explicit dovish shift from chair Jerome Powell may be enough to prevent a USD rally. As such, a short NZD/USD setup looks to be on the menu. Positions could be built beneath the 200DMA with a stop either above it or .5850. A retest and rejection of the 200 would strengthen the case. The 50% fib of the April-July rally sits just above .5800, offering a potential early hurdle. A break beneath that opens the way to .5750, .5700 and .5639, all levels that saw plenty of action earlier this year and screen as potential targets depending on risk-reward. Momentum indicators are flashing bearish across the board, favouring downside. If price reverses back above .5850 and holds, the bearish bias is invalidated. Good luck! DS
Short
by FOREXcom
1
Approachable Contracts for Trading Around Fed DecisionsCME Group E-Mini S&P Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) and Micro S&P Futures ( CME_MINI:MES1! ), #microfutures On July 30th, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged at the 4.25-4.50% target range. Investors now turn their focus on whether the Fed will cut rates on the September 16th-17th FOMC meeting. According to CME FedWatch Tool, as of August 6th, there is a 92.4% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in September. My observation: • Before July FOMC, market consensus was no rate cut, with the odds at 95.3% as of July 20th. Investors now overwhelmingly expect rate cuts to come at the next meeting. • Two Fed governors broke the long-run consent and voted against the FOMC decision. Today, I would like to explore two trading strategies focusing on the next Fed decision. We will start by breaking down all possible Fed decisions as follows: 1) Cut rates by 25 basis points (92.4%) 2) No rate cuts (7.6%) 3) All others, such as cutting by 50 bps and raising rates by 25 bps (0%) If we deem the 3rd option to be statistically insignificant, we now have an event with binary outcomes, namely, Cut and No Cut . Since “Cut” is the market consensus, we will translate the possible outcomes as: • Meet market expectations (Cut Rates) • Exceed market expectations (No Cut) Furthermore, financial markets will likely react calmly if the Fed decision meets expectations, while asset prices could swing widely if the FOMC exceeds expectations. Typically, US stock market indexes, interest rate contracts and the US dollar exchange rates are very sensitive to the Fed decisions. Our discussion today will focus on stock indexes. I will follow up on the other two asset classes in future writings. Based on the above analytical framework, we could design two sets of trading strategies: Sell Call Options if a trader expects the Fed to cut rates • Since the decision meets expectations, asset prices would not move a lot. • Options may expire worthiness, which allows sellers to pocket the premium as profit. Sell Futures if a trader expects No Cut • Since the decision exceeds expectations, S&P prices could go down sharply. • With build-in leverage in futures contracts, a trader could realize enhanced profit. Now, let’s explore how to structure trading strategies using S&P futures and options. Hypothetical Fed Decision 1: Meet Expectations Cutting rates is bullish for S&P as it will lower borrowing costs for component companies. However, since market already priced in a Fed cut, stock prices will not move a lot. If a trader shares this view, he could explore selling Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Call Options on CME E-Mini S&P 500 futures ( NYSE:ES ). Each ES contract has a notional value of $50 x S&P 500 Index. On August 6th, the September ES contract (ESU5) is quoted at 6,341, making the notional value at $317,050. • Call options at the 6500-strike are quoted at $42. By selling 1 call, options seller will receive $2,100 in upfront premium (= 42 x 50). • Options expire on September 19th, two days after the FOMC. If ESU5 price does not exceed 6500, options seller will pocket the premium as profit. • Warnings: selling options involves significant risks. Seller could lose more than the premium he collected. To cut losses, seller could buy back at the open market and exit the position. This will avoid losses to accumulate by expiration date. Hypothetical Fed Decision 2: Exceed Expectations Since rate cut is already priced in, an Unchanged decision will likely cause the S&P to fall sharply, as expected future borrowing costs will go up. If a trader shares this view, he could explore selling CME Micro S&P 500 futures ( MSTAR:MES ). Each MES contract has a notional value of $5 x S&P 500 Index. On August 6th, the notional value of ESU5 is $31,705. Buying or selling 1 futures contract requires an upfront margin deposit of $2,135 at the time of this writing. Micro S&P 500 futures are 1/10 in notional comparing to its E-Mini counterpart. With smaller size and lower margin requirement, the micro contracts are more approachable for non-professional traders. At the same time, they also enjoy the leverage built-in the futures contracts. Micro S&P contracts tap into the liquidity pool with the broad S&P contract suite. Hypothetical Trade • Short 1MESU5 at 6,341, and set a stop loss at 6450 • Trader pays $2,135 for initial margin A “Meet” Scenario: S&P go up 1.5% to 6,436 • Short position loss: $475 (= (6436-6341) x 5) • The maximum loss will be $545 if the S&P moves higher, due to the stop-loss feature An “Exceed” Scenario: S&P falls 5% to 6,024 • Short position gain: $1,585 (= (6341-6024) x 5) • The theoretical return is 74.2% (= 1585/2135), excluding transaction fees Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
XAUUSD Market Update – July 30 Late NY Recap🔸Macro Context Markets are still digesting Powell’s ongoing speech with no clear pivot signals. While FOMC tone remained cautious, no dovish surprise emerged. Trump’s upcoming comments keep geopolitical risks elevated. USD remains firm. Gold is reacting within key HTF demand as intraday volatility cools off. 🔸Bias Overview Weekly Bias: • Bearish rejection from the major supply wick 3439–3350 • Structure still below 3345, maintaining downside pressure • Weekly RSI cooling off — no bullish divergence yet Daily Bias: • Lower high locked below 3345 • Price reentered the imbalance toward 3272 • Clean structure remains bearish unless we reclaim 3302 H4 Bias: • Lower high formed at 3314 • Current price testing HTF Extreme Demand Base (3289–3272) • Still bearish unless we see a confirmed M15 or H1 BOS from demand 🔸Key Structural Zones 🔺Above Price (3272): • 3289–3294 Decision Block – M30 OB + FVG. First sign of momentum shift if reclaimed. • 3302–3314 Supply Reversal – H1 OB + previous BOS zone. EMA alignment adds pressure. • 3345–3350 Major Rejection Zone – H4 origin of last leg down. Strong resistance area. 🔻Below Price (3272): • 3254–3264 Imbalance + OB – H4 FVG + clean demand zone. Buy setup only on deep flush + reversal PA. • 3227–3214 HTF Demand Base – Daily OB + historical volume shelf. Final structural floor before deeper downside opens. 🔸Battle Plan ▶ Scenario 1 – Bearish Breakout If 3272 fails with momentum and no reversal signs, expect continuation into 3254–3264. No long trades unless BOS confirms. ▶ Scenario 2 – Reactive Long from Demand If price gives a strong reaction from 3272 with BOS on M15 or H1 and clears 3294, then a recovery into 3302 is possible. Only valid with confirmed PA + EMA shift. ▶ Scenario 3 – Choppy Rejection from 3294 If price tests 3294 but fails, watch for rejections back toward 3272. Scalpers can fade reactions if no bullish structure forms. 🔸Final Thoughts Price is once again testing our Extreme Demand Base from July 28 (3289–3272). The zone remains valid — but execution depends entirely on confirmation. Bears still in control unless we reclaim 3302 cleanly. No need to rush. Best RR setups are found at clean structural edges. Patience = profits. —💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments. ❤️ Like if you appreciate the precision. 🔔 Follow GoldFxMinds for more sniper-level updates. With you all the way, — GoldFxMinds 📊 Analysis based on Trade Nation TradingView charts.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
5
Countdown to Powell’s rate decision: What to watch WednesdayFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is under mounting pressure from President Donald Trump to begin cutting interest rates. Markets and analysts overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold rates steady this Wednesday. But what if the political heat is becoming too much to bear, and Powell and the Fed board advocate for a cut this week? Some Fed governors, Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman , have already signaled support for an early cut. FX pairs to watch USD/JPY: This pair remains highly sensitive to yield differentials and broader risk sentiment. However, any hawkish resistance or emphasis on data dependency may keep the pair supported, especially if risk appetite holds. EUR/USD: The euro has shown relative strength in recent sessions, but the pair has been hit by the announcement of the trade deal struck between the EU and US. If the Fed clearly signals it's not ready to ease, the USD could regain even ground.
by BlackBull_Markets
AUD/USD tests uptrend as Trump targets Powell at Fed siteThe US dollar is trading mixed after President Trump made a rare appearance at the Federal Reserve’s renovation site, in an attempt to distract from you know what. While the visit had no formal policy announcements, Trump did try to further undermine Chair Jerome Powell by erroneously claiming the renovation cost had blown out to 3.1 billion by adding the cost of a building finished 5 years ago. Meanwhile, AUD/USD could be of the most interest. Traders might like to watch to see if it can hold its uptrend after its downside breakout from yesterday. AUD/USD remains potentially supported above its 50-DMA, with momentum pointing to potential further upside beyond 0.6625.
by BlackBull_Markets
Dollar Index Holds Below 98 as Markets Await Trade Deal ProgressThe dollar index remained below 98 today, extending its two-day decline as investors watched trade negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said deal quality is the priority, suggesting Trump could grant extensions to countries showing real progress. Markets are also focused on Fed Chair Powell’s speech for signals on interest rates. Despite Trump’s push for a cut, traders are not expecting action this month.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
by ChartMage
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 21–25, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 21–25, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Chair Powell Speaks — Markets Key Into Tone Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is the week’s centerpiece. Markets will be closely listening for clues on inflation strategy, rate-cut timing, and sensitivity to geopolitical inflation drivers like tariffs. 📦 Tariff Deadlines Gain Spotlight Multiple tariff deadlines are set this week for targeted trade partners including the EU, Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. Any new announcements or extensions could trigger volatility in trade-exposed sectors. 🛢️ Oil Market Mixed Signals Brent crude prices have stabilized near mid-$70s, but OPEC+ discussions regarding supply extensions and global growth concerns continue to inject uncertainty into energy-linked equities. 📈 Big Tech Earnings Kick Off The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants begin reporting: Nvidia leads on Tuesday, followed by Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta later in the week. Expect significant sentiment swings based on forward commentary. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, July 21 Quiet session ahead of a packed week of speeches and data. 📅 Tuesday, July 22 8:30 AM ET – Existing Home Sales (June): Measures signed contracts on previously owned homes—a key housing indicator. After Market Close – Nvidia Q2 Earnings: Market will watch guidance and China commentary. 📅 Wednesday, July 23 8:30 AM ET – Leading Economic Indicators (June): An early gauge of U.S. economic momentum. 📅 Thursday, July 24 8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: Labor-market health indicator. 📅 Friday, July 25 8:30 AM ET – Durable Goods Orders (June): Signals demand for long-lasting goods, often driven by business spending. 8:30 AM ET – New Home Sales (June): Follows existing home data for housing sector insight. 4:00 PM ET – Fed Chair Powell Speech at Jackson Hole: Expect commentary on inflation, growth, and rate-path clarity. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #earnings #housing #durablegoods #JacksonHole #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Earnings Heat Up - 6300 and 6200 SPX Key Levels RemainMarket Update SPX Key Levels -SPX poked 6300 Tuesday, Thursday, and poked higher Friday (but settled back to 6300) -6200 support remains a key level -6050/6000/5800 next floor levels, I'll be looking for dips I can see the market slowly (and I mean SLOWLY) grinding higher but preparing for a reasonable seasonal selloff through end of July into end of September window July 28-August 1 is a monster week in the markets -Megacap Earnings (MAG7 Tue/Wed/Thu) -Wed July 30 - FOMC (Pause expected but Powell's Press Conference is important) -Friday August 1 - Non-Farm Payroll, Tariff Deadline I'm hitting fresh YTD highs so I'm not complaining about this melt-up and grind, I'm simply wanting to allocate positions and add to my positions at better levels and with a slightly higher VIX to help take advantage of the expected move being greater than the actual move Have a great weekend and thank you watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver