Unveiling the 40-Year Bond Yield Super-Cycle: Prepare for a potential Boom if we see a significant pullback in rates, followed by an Epic Bust thereafter!
Overview:
The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield exhibits an 80-year cyclical pattern, aligning with Elliott Wave Theory at Super-Cycle and Cycle Degrees. The historical peak of 15.82% (Wave V) in the early 1980s marked the end of a Super-Cycle uptrend, followed by a corrective Wave C low of 0.33% around 2020.
The current upward movement in Cycle Wave I suggests the beginning of a new 40-year inflationary half-cycle, with a projected peak around 2060, interspersed with shorter Cycle Degree waves (Wave I, Wave II, Wave III, Wave IV, and Wave V) that include resistance zones at 5.28% (horizontal resistance) and the upward Fibonacci retracement levels at 6.24%, 8.07%, and 9.03%.
Implications for the Future:
Inflation: Apart from a stimulative-induced pullback in rates marking a deep Cycle Degree Wave II decline near 2%—which could spike risk assets to fresh all-time highs before an epic bust—expect bouts of persistent rising inflation over the next 35 years as the Super Cycle inflationary momentum strengthens toward its peak in 2060.
Stock Prices: Downside volatility may increase with higher yields, and blow-off top rallies may occur with ample stimulation from the Fed, further impacting already absurd equity valuations.
Gold Price: If rates drop sharply and the dollar strengthens over the near to medium term, Gold may suffer a significant pullback. Apart from that, Gold is likely to appreciate significantly as a safe-haven asset, particularly if yields break out above horizontal resistance north of 5%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures.
U.S Economy: The real economy and Wall Street's financialized economy have diverged by orders of magnitude over the last 45 years. The wealth gap between the haves and have-nots is nearing a breaking point. Once risk assets peak for this Super Cycle, the ensuing bust will take no prisoners, but may narrow the wealth gap to more tolerable levels. If things get severely disruptive as they tend to do in Super Cycles, don't be surprised if a new monetary regime is adopted between now and 2060.
