SMC-ICT
EURUSD did indeed turn bearish....Price has dropped over 100 pips from the poi. I believe it is heading to the sell side LQ for
the raid @1.0825 low, and potentially further into the FVG and discount prices.
Again, the pullback may have started, but it is not confirmed until price has a substantial
BOS (break of structure). For me, that would be a daily candle close below the SSl level.
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EURUSD is in position to Fall!As price has reached premium prices, retracing 50+%, I am on the lookout for a reversal pattern.
When price sweeps LQ from the buyside or sellside, usually it goes in the opposite direction.
As I am bearish overall, I am looking for the HTF resumption of the overall trend, which is bearish.
Agree or disagree?
Leave a comment or question, and I will be happy to respond.
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ES eminiCME_MINI:ES1!
Will this years ES emini futures bull run last?
Will this current measured move sustain to higher levels?
Tough call not knowing what the man in charge will be doing at the next FOMC meeting.
Until then, we trade what we see, and what is in front of us.
So for now, I see some headwind moving up from here, OB's everywhere.
Institutional Demand: NZD/CAD LongHi traders!
Hope you're having a great summer! Meanwhile, I am watching NZD/CAD for a long play, I love how the daily time-frame created new demand, and how it is nicely stacked with weekly value.
Now the 4hour just shaped up perfectly, allowing us to take a simple 1:3 risk to rewards setups by our trading plan. Of course, do your own analysis!
If you want more charts, like this post and follow us here!
Kind regards,
Max
SP500 probably "peaked". Powe(r)ll "shocked/Shorted" on 26/7/23?After reviewing SPX smaller time frame chart and referring back to the "bigger pic". SPX probably at its top "temporarily". P/s. There are many gurus/ textbook written "documented" that E.G : "Market is unpredictable";' Never try to predict the market".. BUT but.. not just Option / Future trading instruments but many others instruments "are designed" for "Big Boy" who has "edge" over retail traders to "Speculating/ Anticipating" Next Market Moves.. E.g Warrent Buffet "Getting his stock's portfoilio "discounted" by "speculating" option..
Last but not least, As many said : No one can predict the long term trend. e.g Monthly, Weekly or even daily market ..See money "in short term e.g 5 min , hourly chart" take money first is their "Trading's motto". BUT tell you what. If we can't tell what the longer chart next moves, we will "failed more" in short term chart, it's like "zooming" into our face's skin.. Silky "SMOOTH" from far But "Lot of cracking" Much more "chaostic" "surface once zoom into 1min, 5min etc "skin face"!!! So trade lesser in higher time frame chart is "Making lesser losing trade with better risk/reward Setup!
USDCAD LONG (ENTRY SETUP 1)FX:USDCAD As price has mititgated the Order block that caused a CHOCH on a daily chart ,price has began giving entry points consider this one as the initial entry points of many.
1.On the move upwards price created a wick-based order block then went on to give a Gap between the impulsive candles ,in this instance to determine a sniper entry is slightly complex due to the possibility of price bouncing of the Gap or mitigating the order block before a move upwards therefore our entry point will be on the top of the Gap:1,31675 and place our stop losses slightly below the order block :1,31284 then our tp will be :1,32893
For a better understanding refer to the prior idea that is tagged
How to Adapt to the Ever-Evolving Financial Markets – 4 WaysThe only constant with the financial markets is…
Change
The market is constantly changing in a way that it’s brining:
New demand
New supply
New volume
and fresh changes in the complex algorithms.
If you want to thrive you need to learn to learn to adapt, evolve and grow with the markets.
I want to cover four elements to today’s topic.
The Inevitability of Market Change
Change is not only constant but inevitable in financial markets.
There will always be new elements streaming into the markets from:
~ Global and political events
~ Micro and macro aspects
~ Economic indicators
~ Regulatory shifts, and
~ Investor sentiment
These elements are perpetually at work, shaping and reshaping the market.
These catalysts can shift the trajectory of entire sectors, leading to volatile market movements.
Influx of New Volume on Market Dynamics
Every day, the market sees a deluge of new volume.
There are new traders and investors constantly joining the financial markets world.
And we are seeing an inflow of capital from retail traders, institutional investors, and high-frequency trading firms.
The big institutions like Smart Money (banks, hedge funds, brokers etc…) are causing the big volatile moves in the market.
The smaller guys – dumb money and retail traders – are also helping with liquidity in the markets.
Every transaction is causing a shift in the market. No matter how small it’s the “Butterfly Effect of the financial market”.
The Role of Algorithms in Market Evolution
In the era of digital transformation, algorithms have become a pivotal part of the financial markets.
Algorithmic trading or ‘algo-trading’ employs complex mathematical models to execute trades at lightning speed and frequency.
I’m talking about Copy Trader, Robinhood, AI trading bots, EA Expert Advisors and pre-determined automatic mechanical trading methods.
This practice is now an integral part of the trading landscape.
And they will continue to have an influence in price action, and market patterns.
Haven’t you noticed?
In the 50s through to the early 2000’s. The markets trended on a more consistent basis.
Any monkey could choose a list of good stocks and hold them until they were up 200% – 1000%.
But nowadays with derivatives, algorithms, shorts and automatic execution – markets have never been more volatile and more difficult to ride the trends.
Always Adapt to Thrive in Changing Markets
It’s our job to learn to be more flexible and to adapt to these market conditions.
As markets evolve, so must we evolve with them.
We need to always:
~ Apply new markets to our watchlists
~ Look for better trading instruments
~ Change the trading strategy to make it more conducive with the environments
~ Always look for the next best broker, trading and charting platform
~ Look for ways to reduce costs and maximise profits.
I’ll end off with this.
The market is constantly changing, adapting and evolving.
We need to embrace the change and not see it as a threat.
Have this mentality and you’ll always have the opportunities to improve, anticipate and grow as a trader.
XAUUSD / GOLD potential directionGold overbought throughout the week at the same pace that the dollar index had been oversold. Next week if gold respects the current supply zone. I will maintain a bearish bias for the week. during that week's market open, price is likely to retest the key supply zone multiple times, I'll be looking out for price to respect the zone or breakout. patience will be highly required.
US100 SHORT SKILLING:NASDAQ As shown on the weekly timeframe price went on to take out our inducement zone and mitigate the weekly bearish order block with long and impulsive candles, this weekly analysis concludes that for the next coming months we can maintain a bearish sentiment unless willing to trade pullbacks which will be bullish. Price will be on an overall bear trend for the next coming 3-6 months if fundamentals are on our side, BUT PRICE IS EXPECTED TO PRDUCE A CHOCH ENTRY SETUP IN THE NEXT 4-8 WEEKS(expect updates anytime)
1.possible levels for pullbacks will be: 14550 / 13573 / 12898 / 11735,price will likely bounce of from these levels before becoming bearish again. From these levels we can await bullish setups on lower timeframes (3/5/15/30/45 min and the 4h )
2.Proper bearish setups will start to form now on lower time frames
Expect entry updates any time from now.
USDCAD LONGFX:USDCAD On the weekly time frame price has fulfilled a bullish order block right after taking out our inducement level ,fulfilling the price stop hunt to create new higher highs. On the daily chart price showed an entry setup of a CHANGE OF CHARACTER ,in the approaching weeks the price will creating new movements to the upside.Entry setups can be searched for starting from now going forth.
AWAIT ENTRY UPDATES FROM ME
Gold Directional Bias Gold has delivered as outlined in my previous post i will leave links to those. now gold has broken structure and is in a buy program. as the dollar continue to fall i anticipate gold to seek buyside liquidity. first using our fvg from the low of 1947 to the high of 1939 as an inverted fair value gap that want to see act as support seeking our first target of 1967 buyside and the others there after. so what does this mean? this title says daily directional bias so this is and will be used as for me as a roadmap to take longs. when i see intraday setups i will post those. thanks and stay tuned
GLOSSARY Smart Money Concepts – Complete Terms!It’s taking the world by a storm.
Smart Money Concepts is what has become famous lately.
Now I’ve been trading for 20 years and even I have learnt to adapt and adjust SMC to my trading strategy.
I guess we have to evolve and adapt with what there is.
Anyways, today I’ve written a complete Glossary on Smart Money Concepts terms for you.
Enjoy!
SMART MONEY CONCEPTS GLOSSARY
Break Of Structure (BOS) (CONTINUATION)
A BOS is when the price breaks above or below, and continues in the direction of the trend. (CONTINUATION).
Break Of Structure Down
When the price breaks and closes BELOW the wick of the previous LOW in a DOWNTREND.
Break Of Structure Up
When the price breaks and closes ABOVE the wick of the previous HIGH in an UPTREND.
Buy Side Liquidity (Smart Money SELLS)
Where an Order Block forms where Smart Money SELLS into retailers (dumb money) BUYING orders – Pushing the price DOWN.
Change of Character (CHoCH) (REVERSAL)
Refers to a much larger shift in the underlying market trend, dynamic or sentiment.
This is where the price moves to the point where there is a change in the overall trend. (REVERSAL)
Change of Character Down
When the price breaks and closes below the previous uptrend.
Change of Character Up
When the price breaks and closes above the previous downtrend.
Daily bias
Tells us which direction, trend and environment the market is in and what we are looking to trade.
Daily bias Bearish
When the market environment is DOWN and the trend is DOWN – we look for shorts (sells) in the market.
Daily bias Bullish
When the market environment is UP and the trend is UP – we look for long positions (buys) in the market.
Discount market <50%
The market is at a discount when the price trades BELOW the equilibrium level. We say the price is at a discount (low price).
Equilibrium
Equilibrium is a state of the market where the demand and supply are in balance with the price. We say the price of the market is at fair value.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
A 3 candle structure with an up or down impulse candle that indicates and creates an imbalance or an inefficiency in the market.
Fair Value Gap Bearish
A 3 candle structure with a DOWN impulse candle that indicates and creates an imbalance or an inefficiency in the market.
Between candle 1 and 3, do NOT show common prices. The price needs to move back up to rebalance and fill the gap.
Fair Value Gap Bullish
A 3 candle structure with an UP impulse candle that indicates and creates an imbalance or an inefficiency in the market.
Between candle 1 and 3, do NOT show common prices. The price needs to come back down to rebalance and fill the gap.
Levels of liquidity
The area of prices where smart money players, identify and choose to BUY or SELL large quantities.
E.g. Supports, resistances, highs, lows, key levels, trend lines, volume, indicators, psychological levels.
Liquidity
The degree, rate and ability for an asset or security to be easily bought (flow in) or sold (flow out) in the market at a specific price.
Liquidity sweep (Liquidity grab)
Smart money buys or sells (and sweeps or grabs liquidity) from traders who enter, exit or get stopped.
Market down structure
When the price makes lower lows and lower highs.
Market structure
Indicates what a market is doing, which direction it’s in and where it is more likely to go.
Market Structure Shift (MSS)
MSS shows you when the price is breaking a structure or changing the direction in the market.
Market up structure
When the price makes higher lows and higher highs.
Order block
Large market orders (big block of orders) where smart money buys or sells from different levels of liquidity.
Order Block Bearish
A strong selling or a supply zone for smart money.
Order Block Bullish
A strong buying or a demand zone for smart money.
Order block events
Large market orders where smart money buys or sells from certain events i.e. High volume, supports, resistances, highs, lows, key levels, Break Of Structure, Change of Character, News or economic event.
Point Of Interest (POI)
POI is an area or level in the market where there is expected to be a large amount of buying or selling activity i.e. Order blocks.
Premium market >50%
The market is at a premium when the price trades ABOVE the equilibrium level.
We say the price is at a premium (high price).
Sell Side Liquidity (Smart Money BUYS)
Where an Order Block forms where the Smart Money BUYS into the retail (dumb money traders orders – Pushing the price UP.
Smart Money
These are the smart, informed, and savvy financial institutions that invest (buy and sell) their large capital into different financial markets.
Smart Money Concepts
SMC is a more sophisticated method of price action to spot, identify and locate where smart money is buying and selling their positions
Sweep Buy Side Liquidity (Smart Money SELLS)
Smart Money SELLS into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from retail traders who are short (get stopped) and for long traders who buy and enter their trades.
Sweep Sell Side Liquidity (Smart Money BUYS)
Smart Money BUYS into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from traders who are long (get stopped) and for short traders who enter their trades.
Feel free to print this out and have it as a guide to your Smart Money Concepts trading journey.
All the best!