Combined US Equities Since the last heads up analysis before the bearish pullback, some more new developments came into play, particularly how the equity market turned bullish...
1. Heads up given for RISK ON in the green ellipse. The weekly chart is actually very obvious with a long tail candlestick;
2. The latter part of that week finished with a combination of a long bullish candle, breaking and closing above a resistance trendline;
3. Then continued by another breakout of a range; and
4. This week closed with another colid bullish candle that closed the gap resistance, with another bullish candle to boot.
5. MACD and VolDiv indicators are bullish since the early part of the week.
Can easily expect a revisit to the last high of 906.50, but not before a retest of the gap support.
Snp500
MSFT / MICROSOFTMSFT (Microsoft Corporation) Stock Analysis:
Key Dates and Potential Market Movements:
1. August 23, 2024 - Potential Upside:
• Scenario: The chart suggests that Microsoft might experience a bullish phase around late August 2024. This could be driven by positive quarterly earnings, strong product launches, or renewed investor confidence in Microsoft’s cloud and AI strategies.
• Impact on Price: We may see Microsoft’s stock price rally, potentially revisiting previous highs around the $460-$470 mark.
• Reflection: As we witness the potential rise in Microsoft’s value, let us also reflect on the importance of placing our trust in both our investments and in a higher power that guides our steps.
2. November 11, 2024 - Potential Downside:
• Scenario: Moving into November 2024, the chart indicates a potential bearish trend. This could be attributed to broader market corrections, changes in global economic policies, or challenges within the tech sector.
• Impact on Price: Microsoft’s stock might face a pullback, potentially testing lower support levels around $380-$400.
• Reflection: In times of decline, whether in markets or in our personal lives, it’s our faith that provides stability. Just as we hold onto our investments during downturns, we should also hold onto our faith, trusting in recovery.
3. January 2, 2025 - Recovery and Consolidation:
• Scenario: By early 2025, Microsoft might enter a recovery phase, possibly driven by strong end-of-year performance, increased adoption of new technologies, or favorable market conditions.
• Impact on Price: This could lead to a stabilization or gradual increase in the stock price, with potential movements towards $420-$430.
• Reflection: As the new year begins, let this recovery remind us that perseverance through challenging times, with faith as our foundation, often leads to renewal and growth.
4. July 14, 2025 - Continued Growth or Consolidation:
• Scenario: The chart suggests that mid-2025 could either continue the growth trend or enter a consolidation phase, depending on market conditions and Microsoft’s performance in the first half of the year.
• Impact on Price: If positive momentum continues, we might see Microsoft’s stock breaking new highs; otherwise, the stock could trade sideways within the $420-$450 range.
• Reflection: As we navigate the complexities of the market, let us remember the words from Proverbs 16:3, “Commit to the Lord whatever you do, and He will establish your plans.” This verse encourages us to combine faith with our strategic planning.
5. November 8, 2027 - Long-Term Outlook:
• Scenario: Looking further ahead, the chart indicates significant potential shifts by late 2027. This could be influenced by global technological advancements, changes in leadership, or major economic events.
• Impact on Price: This period could mark either a major breakout for Microsoft or a significant correction, depending on the overall market environment and Microsoft’s adaptation to future trends.
• Reflection: As we plan for the long term, let us build our investments on solid foundations, just as we build our lives on faith. In doing so, we prepare for both the challenges and the opportunities that lie ahead.
Considerations for Investors:
• Technological Innovation: Microsoft’s ongoing advancements in AI, cloud computing, and enterprise solutions will be crucial drivers of its stock performance.
• Market Sentiment: Investor confidence in the tech sector, especially in established leaders like Microsoft, will play a significant role in price movements.
• Economic and Geopolitical Factors: Global events, such as trade policies, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic trends, could impact Microsoft’s performance.
As we approach these key dates, how do you plan to position your investments in Microsoft? Are you prepared to navigate both the potential ups and downs, relying not only on market analysis but also on a steady foundation of faith?
NFLX / NETFLIXMarket Insight: NFLX (Netflix, Inc.)
Our predictions have highlighted key moments for investors:
• First Green Line (August 12th, 2024): A potential buying opportunity, as market conditions stabilize.
• First Red Line (October 28th, 2024): Consider taking profits or reducing exposure before possible market downturns.
• Second Green Line (January 6th, 2025): A favorable time to re-enter or increase positions, with market optimism on the rise.
• Second Red Line (April 14th, 2025): Another signal to safeguard your investments, preparing for possible volatility.
These points serve as guiding lights, helping navigate the financial journey with both wisdom and discernment.
TSLA / TESLATSLA (Tesla, Inc.) Stock Analysis:
Key Dates and Potential Market Movements:
1. August 23, 2024 - Potential Upside:
• Scenario: The chart indicates a potential bullish movement around late August 2024. This could be driven by positive earnings reports, advancements in Tesla’s technology, or an increase in market optimism around Tesla’s leadership in the EV market.
• Impact on Price: We might see a short-term rally in Tesla’s stock price, pushing it towards previous highs around the $270 mark.
2. October 15, 2024 - Potential Downside:
• Scenario: As we approach mid-October 2024, the chart suggests a potential bearish phase. This could be due to broader market corrections, profit-taking by investors, or any negative news related to supply chain disruptions or increased competition in the EV market.
• Impact on Price: Tesla’s stock could see a pullback, potentially testing support levels around $215 or even lower.
3. February 19, 2025 - Recovery Phase:
• Scenario: By early 2025, the chart indicates a recovery phase, possibly due to strong Q4 2024 earnings, the introduction of new Tesla models, or significant advancements in battery technology.
• Impact on Price: This period might mark the beginning of a new bullish trend, with Tesla’s stock price climbing back towards the $250-$300 range.
4. May 9, 2025 - Consolidation or Continued Growth:
• Scenario: The market could enter a consolidation phase, where the stock trades within a range, or Tesla could continue its growth trajectory depending on the broader economic conditions and Tesla’s performance.
• Impact on Price: If the market conditions are favorable, Tesla might break out to new highs; otherwise, we could see sideways movement in the $250-$300 range.
5. September 4, 2025 - Potential Market Shift:
• Scenario: As we approach late 2025, the chart suggests another critical phase, potentially influenced by macroeconomic factors, such as changes in interest rates or shifts in consumer demand for EVs.
• Impact on Price: This could lead to either a breakout to new highs or a retest of lower support levels, depending on the prevailing market sentiment.
6. December 4, 2025 - Year-End Rally:
• Scenario: The end of 2025 could see a year-end rally, driven by strong sales numbers, holiday season demand, or favorable policy decisions regarding EV subsidies.
• Impact on Price: Tesla’s stock might experience a strong rally, potentially setting new highs or revisiting levels around $300.
Considerations for Investors:
• Technological Advancements: Tesla’s continued innovation in battery technology, autonomous driving, and energy solutions could be key drivers of its stock price.
• Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment around the EV market and broader technology sector will play a crucial role in Tesla’s stock movements.
• Geopolitical and Economic Factors: Changes in global trade policies, supply chain disruptions, and shifts in consumer demand could impact Tesla’s performance.
Given the potential market shifts and Tesla’s leadership in the EV space, are you considering adding Tesla to your portfolio? How do you see Tesla’s position evolving as we approach key market dates in 2024 and 2025?
SPY Lovers ! Bullish and Strong but wait... there is a challengeThere's really not much to analyze here. As we can see on the chart, SPY remains strong and in an upward direction.
What I'm expecting: I'm waiting for the price to reach my 565.16 zone as a rejection or liquidity point so that it can regain strength and eventually break through the zone later on.
Other than that, there's not much to analyze—SPY remains strong.
The challenge this week will be reaching new highs, as we have very important economic news coming up, which could bring a lot of volatility.
We'll see what happens this week.
Thank you for supporting my analysis.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to resistance area 5566.Dear Colleagues, because the big wave “4” (5095) has completed, now I believe that the price is in wave “5”. This means that the price probably has not yet completed the upward movement. I expect a small correction, then a continuation of the upward movement at least to the 5566 area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
SNP500 / SPX 🔍 SPX Analysis: Navigating the Upcoming Market Movements 📉
The SPX chart presents key dates that traders should focus on:
September 18, 2024 & December 3, 2024 & February 3, 2025 - Green Lines: These dates indicate potential local lows. These could offer strategic opportunities for accumulating positions as the market is likely to bounce back from these points.
November 11, 2024 & March 10, 2025 - Red Lines: These dates are projected to be local peaks. Traders should consider taking profits around these times, as the market could face resistance or start to decline.
Currently, the SPX is in a downtrend, with a potential reversal expected around September 18, 2024. This could be an optimal point for re-entering the market or adding to existing positions.
#SPX #StockMarket #MarketAnalysis #Trading #Investing #S&P500
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to resistance area 5407.Colleagues, the price has moved down a lot, but that means we have an opportunity to enter a long position more favorably. I still believe that price is still in an upward move of great impulse, and now there is a complex correction taking place.
I expect an uptrend to begin around the 5172 area.
The first expected target is in the 5407 area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
AAPL / APPLE🔍 AAPL Analysis: Key Dates for Market Movements 📈
The AAPL chart highlights two critical dates that could shape your trading strategy:
October 7, 2024 - Red Line: This date marks a potential local peak. It might be an opportune moment to take profits as the stock could face resistance or enter a short-term correction.
August 25, 2025 - Green Line: A significant local low is expected around this time. This could present an ideal opportunity to accumulate AAPL shares, positioning yourself for the next major upward move.
By strategically planning around these dates, you can optimize your trading decisions and maximize returns.
#AAPL #StockMarket #MarketTiming #InvestmentStrategy #AppleStock
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to resistance area 5407.Colleagues, the price has moved down a lot, but that means we have an opportunity to enter a long position more favorably. I still believe that price is still in an upward move of great impulse, and now there is a complex correction taking place.
I expect an uptrend to begin around the 5172 area.
The first expected target is in the 5407 area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Combined US Equities - D-Day +1on 31 July, heads up given about D-day. That was based simply of a few compelling technical factors observed.
Outcome was that there was a blow out rally, followed by an awesome Dark Cloud Cover and then a confirmation bearish candle that gapped down and tanked the week to a low. The spike in volatility was just so awesome and it caught many off guard, unfortunately.
Technical indicators were previously mentioned to be bearish already and now it is very evidently so.
Projecting further using supports and TD Sequential, it is also evident that by breaking below the support that closes the gap too was so critical... it broke the TDST support as well. This means that the TD Sequential trend is now bearish, with an expected one bearish week to go.
So all together... a significant technical breakdown.
Some bounce expected, but week ahead looks bearish.
Projected target marked (red ellipse).
Take care!
Full Send Incoming - Through The Van Allen Radiation Belt We Go!Put on your oxygen masks ladies and gentlemen. The U.S. stock market is about to go ballistic.
You all know from my daily chart, we nearly hit the target of my inverse head and shoulders pattern to the dollar. Target was 570. One of my recent posts indicated that I was selling half at 560, taking my profit, and parking it in cash. But now, I will take that cash and pack my bags again as the market is getting ready to blow minds.
Literally, everyone is predicting a market crash soon. And that may happen. But not before a rocket launch to the moon that will rip faces off.
Pack your bags and BTFD folks. Ticket sales will be on fire for this rocket ride.
Combined US equities - D-DayYesterday, the Gap reopened, after an early week stall on Monday. These last two candles have top wicks suggesting selling pressure to keep the gap open. Thing is, I would have preferred to see a more solid down candle.
Meanwhile, this indecision is biased to the downside from indicators and longer term chart (week) point of view. The MACD is in bearish territory and the VolDiv is bearish too. Price has been supported and one of two things will happen:
1. More probable is the volatility spike and markets breakdown fast as they are overdue; or
2. the less likely sudden extreme bullish rally, at the risk of being a blow out top or near term double top for a bigger bolder downside drop in a few months.
Given these, and other supporting charts for a probable downside, I would watch the support breaks very closely.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to 161.8% Fibo lvl 5684.2.Dear colleagues, I assume that the price will continue the upward movement. A small correction is possible, but the wave "1" of medium order should be completed.
I assume that it will end at 161.8% extension of Fibonacci level 5684.2.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
SPY Has Finally Now Neared Its Final Target Of 570!Traders,
It feels as though I have been discussing a SPY top at around 570 for years now and I can see from the history of my posts that this is actually true.
I first started with the premise that the U.S. stock market would experience a blow-off top of sorts. Elliot-Wave theory and technicals seemed to support this idea. Though admittedly, I am nowhere near an expert in this area, I went with it, following the technical guidance of those who were.
It was not too long thereafter I spotted something on the charts that I was very familiar with. This pattern supported and confirmed the idea that stocks would blow-off. What I spotted was a longer-term (2 year) inverse head and shoulders pattern. This inverse h&s played out and gave me my target of 570.
2 years later, we are finally almost there.
Targets are not meant to be absolutely precise. Close enough is both good enough in hand grenades, horseshoes, and in calling market tops/bottoms. Therefore, not wanting to press my luck, I have decided to finally start taking some profit and moving to cash. Though, my target definitely could be exceeded, it is also possible that it may not be reached. I don't think the latter will be the case but I have been wrong before and could be wrong again. If I had to guess rn, I'd say this blow-off top could extend to a time frame just before election shenanigans begin. We are already seeing some of the nonsense here in the U.S. and thus, I know time is running thin. Before all hell breaks loose, SPY could touch 650.
And then? Anyone's guess.
Best,
Stew
Simple multitimeframe for US500, S&P 500 Index☝️Do not act based on my analysis, do your own research!!
The main purpose of my resources is free, actionable education for anyone who wants to learn trading and improve mental and technical trading skills. Learn from hundreds of videos and the real story of a particular trader, with all the mistakes and pain on the way to consistency. I'm always glad to discuss and answer questions. 🙌
☝️ALL ideas and videos here are for sharing my experience purposes only, not financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as a simulated, educational environment. Important disclaimer - this idea is just a possibility and my extremely subjective opinion. Do not act based on my analysis, do your own research!!
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to the area of 5443 level.Dear colleagues, since the 5351 level has been broken, I believe that wave “2” has been completed, which means that wave “3”, which consists of five small waves, is currently developing.
Now I assume that either the price will continue the small wave “1”, or will form a small wave “2” in the area of 61.8% Fibonacci level, then continue the upward movement to the area of 5443 level.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
#ES_F Day Trading Prep for Week 6.09 - 6.14Last Week :
Last week it looked like we found balance inside the Value of 5368 - 5207 Range and I was early trying to call a potential Intraday balance range to be spending time around, instead market pushed back into VAH which was the spot where many were shorting the first time around and most likely the spot where a lot were shorting on that move inside Tuesday Globex/Wednesday RTH expecting a bigger move down but instead market failed to get back under VAH and pushed out trapping and squeezing shorts into the upper Edge again. We spent Thursday and Friday Globex building Supply inside it which got flushed back down under the Edge and Key area of 5341 - 36 but that was all the supply we had for now and we were able to get back inside 5386.50 - 36 Intraday Range and find balance inside it as we pushed above the Edge hit Key area and came back inside the Means of the range to close inside the Edge.
This Week :
Maybe this will finally become our range to find longer term balance in ? Market has been ripping up and down through intraday ranges back and forth without spending too much time in each, it has been a while since we had longer term balancing action and after big moves and everyone getting used to expansions to the upside and downside I think Market needs that and has been looking for a place to do that.
Of course we have to be careful and adapt if things change but so far what the structure is showing us is that we are at ATH and at Key HTF Area, we don't have strong size buyers up here who want to keep pushing us higher as we saw from fails at and over this 5368 area, we can see that buyers most likely put together their cost inside lower Value above VAL after we flushed it and came back in, meaning here smart long will be sellers but for now this is the only supply that we have since are at ATH which means for any bigger back fills or moves lower we either need SIZE sellers which we might not get up here since its Summer time and they don't see any structure or build up of enough supply which they could later use to cover lower with if they would sell up here since market ran out of Supply lower.
IF this is the case then this will potentially be our Balance area here between above VAL and VAH of lower HTF Range, this tells us that any moves to or under Key Supports could find their way back inside the Edge and moves above the Edge top and above 5386 - 81 Key Resistance that don't find acceptance in or above VAL would find their way back inside the Edge as well.
We are in a new month and this area could be our balance for some time, and we have to be careful with looking for too much continuation above or below these areas for time being. To see acceptance higher we would need to see market build up over Edge top and take out VAL and balance around 5397 - 5412 area without coming back in, and to find acceptance lower again we would need to be able to hold under Key Support and push back into VAL without coming back over, until then will be looking to trade 5386.50 - 36 Intraday Range.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5386.50 - 5336
5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance
5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means - where price will want to keep returning towards and balance between
5341 - 36 Key Support
IF Accept over Key Resistance, range is 5432 - 81.50
5432 - 27 Key Resistance
5401.50 - 5397.50 // 5416 - 12 Means
IF Accept under Key Support, range 5341 - 5290.25
5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means
5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Short to support area 5165.Dear colleagues, I am considering the possibility that wave “2” is not yet completed, because wave “a” looks more like a part of a correction than a full-fledged correction.
Therefore, I count on the update of the high of 5300, and then a downward movement to complete wave “2” to the support area of 5165.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 06.02 - 06.07Last Week :
Last week market opened up outside of Value, build some more supply then started the correction lower, we were able to move down to VAL where we found our first Support where we were able to do some covering but eventually we broke, held under and go continuation towards the Lower Edge, we were able to test its bottom where we ran out of Supply and got a sharp reversal back inside Value for a big move from VAL to VAH.
This Week :
Going into this week if we look at Structure we can see we did a look below VAL and fail which gave a return trip to VAH which we tagged, build more supply under and Failed which gave another round trip back to VAL and this time we tagged Key Support at 5249.75 - 44.75 and it acted as proper Key Support giving another big bounce all the way back towards Key Area and as we can see end of day push over 5295.50 - 90.25.
Globex consolidated over Key Area but was not able to hold and we got a flush back inside the Means of 5295.50 - 44.75 Range. This to me screams balance, and I think market will want to stay around these areas going forward until we will build up enough supply to accept under VAL or get stronger buyers to give us acceptance over VAH.
My bias is that we might not see higher prices over 5320-40s for some time but of course we never know and have to trade what market gives, for now I believe this current intraday range can finally become our balance range which we haven't gotten in some time, we have been moving ranges back and forth without spending too long in each and I think its about time we get some good balance action that can last a while.
The way I will be trading this we have our intraday range means at 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75 - 60.75 this is the area where price might want to keep returning back into, pushes out of them can go towards the Key Edges of 5295.50 - 90.25 as our Resistance and 5249.75 - 44.75 but this is the time to be careful with looking perfect tags or too much continuation outside of Key Edges because if we have found balance we will look for any pushes out of the Means to return back either from failures at/above/below Key Support/Resistance or we could even see pushes out of means that will consolidate above/below without tagging Key Edges and then return back in, and when price is between this will be our balance/build up area.
Will continue trading this range until we can see clear acceptance Over or Under Key Support/Resistance and holds over/under VAH/VAL.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5295.50 - 5244.75
Means 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75- 60.75
Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25
Key Support 5249.75 - 44.75
IF we do happen to leave balance and accept under/over the ranges would be
Above :
5341 - 36 Key Resistance
5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means
5295.50 - 90.25
Below :
5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75 Means
5204.25 - 5199.75 Key Support