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You know(!!) you are in a bubble ...... When: The funding a 36-year stream of expected inflation-adjusted spending requires over 38 years of money up-front; Every single decile of S&P 500 components is at record valuation extremes; www.hussmanfunds.com The amount of leverage in the system (U.S. equity markets) is now easily the highest in history, by any measure, not just in absolute terms! (relative to GDP, etc. Margin Debt/GDP = Margin Debt/Market Cap x Market Cap/GDP Showing insane over-valuation across the board!); In a world where speculators now value the stock of bitcoin at one-fifth the value of the entire U.S. monetary base; The current SPAC mania is identical to the South Sea Bubble in as much as: "Let them see not what they do!"; In an economy with $11 trillion in corporate debt at $58 trillion in equity market capitalization; When U.S. Market Capitalization exceeds 263% of U.S. GDP (the norm, not the low, being 78%); Anyway, this is likely a Double Top here.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
17
SPX 3943 + 0.1 % SHORT IDEA * REVERSAL PETTERNS & PRICE ACTIONHey everyone Hope everyone had a good weekend, new week new opportunities. Here's a look at the S&P 500 from the 4H chart. * The index has been trading in an ascending channel, looking for reversal pattens to capitalize on a move with the bears. * We are trading at the formation of a doule top so should this pattern hold looking for a move with the bears. * entries on lower time frames for marging and less risk. * follow your entry rules on entries * significant moves with the bulls change the plan. lets see how it goes. AS ALWAYS PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT AND A LOT OF PATIENCE & AGAIN many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules. HAPPY TRADING EVERYONE & LET YOUR WINS RUN... _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES RISK-MANAGEMENT PERIOD - SWING TRADE __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ If this idea helps with your trading plan kindly leave a like definitely appreciate it.
SP:SPXShort
by PULEMokhothu
US Market Technicals Ahead (16 Feb – 19 Feb 2021)U.S. stock markets will be closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. Investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes due Wednesday for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps in the holiday shortened week ahead and while earnings season is starting to wind down there are still some big names left to report. On the economic calendar, U.S. retail sales figures and industrial production for January will be the main events to watch. Market participants will also be closely following Thursday’s hearing before the House Financial Services Committee on the recent trading turmoil in GameStop ($GME) and other heavily shorted stocks and bitcoin is closing in on $50K. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) continues its February gain with +1.27% for the week. This rally further established a new all time high for $SPX at 3,941 level. At the current junction, $SPX exhibition of a Bearish Divergence pattern that was highlighted last week remains in play; as the daily rally of $SPX is accompanied with a volume exhaustion. The first signs of weakness in this rally will require a re-test of all-time high resistance turned support at 3,870. 1. Stimulus President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package will move to the next stage during the week, with the House Budget Committee pulling all the components into a single piece of legislation. Biden’s proposed spending package, coming on top of $4 trillion enacted by his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, would have important consequences for a global economy that is slowly and unevenly recovering after last year suffering its worst downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. On Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged G7 finance leaders to provide more fiscal support to promote a robust and lasting recovery, telling them “the time to go big is now.” 2. Earnings The S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq ($QQQ) closed at record highs on Friday as expectations for new fiscal aid from Washington to help the U.S. economy recover bolstered risk appetite. Investors will be looking ahead to earnings from Walmart ($WMT) on Thursday for insights on the strength of consumer spending. Investors will also be looking at earnings reports from hotels, cruise lines and other businesses that have been badly hit by the pandemic for indications of which could be the first to bounce back as it recedes. Hilton Worldwide Holdings ($HLT) and Hyatt Hotels ($H) are expected to release their results on Wednesday, followed by Marriott ($MAR), Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH) and TripAdvisor ($TRIP) on Thursday. 3. Economic data The highlights of the U.S. economic calendar will be data on retail sales and industrial production for January, which are expected to show that the economy got off to a strong start in 2021. Investors will also be watching Thursday’s figures on initial jobless claims with the recovery in the labor market remaining slow. Labor market woes strengthen the case for President Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion recovery package, which is under consideration in the U.S. Congress. Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting are due out on Wednesday.
ULong
by jfsrev
US Market Technicals Ahead (25 Jan – 29 Jan 2021)As we enter into the last market week of January, investors will have lots to focus on in the week ahead with a series of major U.S. companies including Apple ($AAPL), Microsoft ($MSFT), Facebook ($FB), and Tesla ($TSLA) all reporting earnings. The Federal Reserve is to meet, and markets will get their first look at fresh GDP growth figures in the final quarter of pandemic ravaged 2020. Elsewhere, the IMF is set to release its World Economic Outlook and growth figures from Germany, Mexico and Hong Kong will also be in the spotlight. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) recovered from the earlier week of losses, posting a weekly gain of +2.23%. The rebound have reaffirm the significance of 20DMA supporting the rally since 4th November 2020. The significance of 20DMA towards $SPX daily current price action is also observed in the various rebound highlighted in the chart (arrow), particularly thrice in December 2020 and once in January 2021. As $SPX continues to creep up with a higher high at every bi-weekly swing, it is observed that volume is diminishing at every of this top establishment – essentially plotting out a technical bearish divergence between price rally with volume decline. At the current junction, the $SPX remains firmly within the congested 3 months trend channel. The immediate support to watch for any further weaknesses is at 3,660 level. This level would see $SPX breaking down the highlighted trend channel convincingly, along with the first break of a minor classical support established on the opening week of 2021. 1. Earnings heat up After leading markets higher for most of 2020, tech stocks took a backseat late last year amid a rotation into value stocks which were boosted by hopes for the economic recovery promised by vaccines. That shift has stalled in recent days as investors weighed lackluster outlooks from big banks and a blockbuster quarterly report from Netflix ($NFLX) that saw shares climb 17%. Microsoft ($MSFT) reports after the close on Tuesday, followed by Apple ($AAPL), Facebook ($FB) and Tesla ($TSLA), which recently joined the S&P 500, a day later. The results could push the combined market cap of the FAANGs – Facebook, Amazon ($AMZN), Apple, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet ($GOOGL)- back above their all-time peak of $6.16 trillion. 2. Fed meeting Fed policymakers will hold their first meeting since Democrats last week took control of the Senate, which has increased the likelihood that new President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package could be passed. The Fed is not expected to make any policy changes at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday and is likely to reiterate that the economy is still far from its goals of full employment and 2% inflation. There is some speculation among investors that increased government spending to boost the recovery could prompt the Fed to begin tapering its massive bond-buying program as soon as the end of this year. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that “now is not the time to be talking about exit.” 3. U.S. GDP data Market participants will get their first look at how the U.S. economy performed in the fourth quarter from Thursday’s figures on gross domestic product after already weaker consumer spending numbers and falling employment in December. After a record 33.4% annualized rate of growth in the third quarter, economists are forecasting growth of 4.0% in the final three months of the year. The economy is expected to have contracted by 3.5% for the full year. The economic calendar also features data on durable goods orders on Wednesday, initial jobless claims numbers on Thursday and personal income and spending data on Friday.
ULong
by jfsrev
US Market Technicals Ahead (11 Jan – 15 Jan 2021)Market will likely be focusing on the prospects for a bigger stimulus package after Friday’s employment report showed the U.S. economy shed jobs for the first time in eight months in December amid a resurgence of Covid-19 infections. A further snapshot of how the economy is performing will be presented with upcoming Friday’s release of data on inflation and retail sales. Additionally, earnings season will get underway with major US banks set to release fourth quarter earnings results on Friday. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) continued with a 3rd consecutive week of rally, closing with a modest gain of +1.83% (68.6 points) for the opening week of 2021. This rally have continued to establish a new all time high level at 3,826 points, also breaking out of a 9 weeks trend channel congestion that was highlighted over the weeks. With plenty of eutrophic moves in highly speculative themes over the past weeks (i.e. Electric Vehicles, Bitcoin, Alternative Energy and Biotechnology), there were observation that some of the previously market-leading mega cap companies are not in participation of the week’s rally. Several of the higher profile companies, particularly the FAANG, remain either in a consolidated triangle chart pattern, or a box ranged rectangular chart pattern. Additionally, $SPX traded lower on the first two days of the year, with the month long highest sessional volume observed on Tuesday alone. At the current junction, the 20DMA have been nicely supporting $SPX in rally since 4th November 2020. The significance of 20DMA towards $SPX daily current price action is also observed in the various rebound highlighted in the chart (arrow), particularly thrice in December 2020 and once in January 2021. There is also a significant pick up in trading volume since the start of 2021, and it is imminent for market volatility to further uptick towards a 50 points ATR14 range within the next two weeks. The immediate support to watch for any potential weaknesses is at 3,780 level, a confirmation retracement for Friday’s Bearish Hanging Man candlestick pattern. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Stimulus hopes Stocks closed at record highs on Friday, despite data showing the U.S. economy suffered its first net loss of jobs in eight months in December, after Biden said his economic relief package will be in the trillions of dollars. Biden said his administration’s economic package will also include unemployment insurance and rent forbearance. The package is due to be unveiled on Thursday. 2. Economic data, Fed speakers The U.S. is due to release data on consumer price inflation on Wednesday, while retail sales figures for December are due out on Friday. Inflation is expected to tick slightly higher, but remain subdued, while retail sales are expected to have been dampened by the surging virus. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak on Thursday. The U.S. central bank has indicated that interest rates will remain on hold near zero through at least 2023 and said the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. 3. Banks kick off earnings Big banks will kick off the U.S. corporate earnings season in earnest with JPMorgan (NYSE: $JPM), Citigroup (NYSE :$C) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: $WFC) posting fourth-quarter results on Friday – the first S&P 500 companies to report for the last quarter of coronavirus-stricken 2020. Some investors expect company earnings and economic data to play a greater role in moving stock prices this year.
ULong
by jfsrev
2
UVXY bounces on pre-March 2020 crash supportUVXY which is a 3x leveraged etf tracking the VIX(volatility index or in simple terms fear in the market) has bounced from the pre march stock market crash support of around $10.5. The RSI has registered higher lows while the OBV looks like more shares are being accumulated. Plus the trading volume has increased considerably over the past few months. Possible reasons for more upside: 1. Short term correction in S&P after the long 2020 bull run despite the economy being in shambles. Also the greed index is very high with wide consensus that the market will keep going up forever. Possible rotation of large investment bank funds from equities to safe havens such as gold and bitcoin. 2. New stimulus bill not being passed for $2000 instead of $600. 3. Trump not conceding & other election uncertainties. 4. Iran & Israel/US standoff. Israel submarines and US aircraft carries are near the strait of hormuz. 5. China & India standoff. China deployed large amounts of radars & air force personnel in the Ladakh border. 6. Another country wide Covid shutdown due to a new strain. 7. Vaccine delays or issues of unintended side effects 8. Trade wars affecting supply chains. This is already happening. Possible reasons for downside: 1. Fed injecting more magic money into the system. Suggestions: Buy some January & February call options . Do not hold this long term. It has a high decay due to being 3x leveraged! Move funds into undervalued sectors such as commodities. Note: This is not financial advise. Please do your own research.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by CryptoPaily
7
SPX is facing bullish pressure, potential for more upsideDescription: Price is facing bullish pressure from our pivot level and showing room for possible further bullish momentum. We see a medium probability bullish scenario above our pivot 3639.9, with 1st resistance at 3783.0 as a possible target. Failure to hold above pivot at 3639.9 would see price swing the other way towards 1st support at 3590.3. Pivot: 3639.9 Supporting Points: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, Graphical overlap support 1st Support: 3590.3 Supporting Points: Graphical swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension 1st Resistance: 3783.0 Supporting Points: 161.8% Fibonacci extension Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
TVC:SPXLong
by M4Academy
No Election Winner For Weeks, No ProblemElection day is finally here. My wave projections have changed a little, but not for the worst. I previously suspected us to be near the end of a major Grand SuperCycle, but I no longer believe that is the case. I shifted some of my waves around after running multiple tests and found a different mapping of the waves provided for more consistent ratios of wave lengths and movements. I previously had the “COVID crash” ending at Cycle wave 4 and leaving us about 18 months to complete the final Cycle wave 5. I now have that bottom in March ending Cycle wave 2 after it began in September 2019. Furthermore, instead of Cycle wave 1 only lasting a few years (2009 to 2011), I now had it run 9 years (March 2009 to September 2019. This all means the major market crash I was projecting in 2022 is now pushed to 2030 or later. Also, we are in for a major market boom beginning this December. But first, we must move down. The next few weeks will likely be difficult as we wait for results, legal challenges, and other circus acts. I believe we are in the early stages of Intermediate wave 2. The top we find today, or likely found this morning will be the end of Minute wave 4 and we should find the end of Minute wave 5 / Minor wave A on Thursday around 3150.39. We should tick up for Minor wave B until around November 20 with a top around 3384.68. We should finally end Intermediate wave 2 in mid-December (Dec 14-17) around 3024.09. THE NUMBERS Why those levels on those dates? Intermediate wave 2’s typically retrace the length of wave 1 by 34.49%. This would have wave 2 lasting about 48 trading days. Of those days, wave A normally comprises 37.55% (18 days), B is 25.20% (12 days), and C is 37.24% (18 days). Intermediate wave 2 typically retraces the movement of wave 1 by about 45%. The minimum retracement over the past 88 years is 28.84%. I am conservatively sticking with a retracement around Fibonacci 38.2%. This would have wave 2 ending around 3021.44. Wave A typically accounts for 77.9% of the wave’s overall movement which would equate to a drop of 399.46 or a bottom around 3150.39. Wave B makes up 45.69% of the total or a rise of 234.29 points with a top around 3384.68. Finally wave C accounts for 70.32% of the larger wave which is a drop of 360.59 with the bottom around 3024.09. REAL WORLD CAUSATION Why the roller coaster? Lack of a clear winner tonight will likely cause some anxiety, additionally multiple states will not have all ballots counted until early next week. We may get the first glimpse of a projected winner after that but Congress must make it official and the lawyers on either side will likely be busy. Right now, Electoral College vote is set for December 14 and the lame duck Congress would certify shortly after. Once the winner is declared the jubilation will begin. I think I know who wins based on the trajectory of the market. We are about to start Intermediate wave 3 in Cycle wave 3 in Primary wave 1. This will lead to huge gains on continued cheap debt. The market is working on its day of reckoning when debt will be due. This date will be catastrophic, especially if we have another decade or more of cheap debt to rack up. Beyond 2030 will certainly see a prolonged great depression, but worrying about that now is unnecessary as the event is inevitable. If the index moves above 3466 before it drops below 3234, my projections and even wave structure could be wrong. We shall see. Let me know where you think this mess is going. Thanks for reading.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
S&P500 Performance In US Election. What to Expect This Week?Only two days left until the elections and Wall Street is bracing itself for the next president of the United States - Trump or Biden. US Elections have been and are always expected to be an extremely volatile event worldwide. Elections, similar to other political or banking sector events, are notably treated by market participants with anticipation and speculation. Last week, the S&P 500 has taken its deepest dive, dropping 5.5%, while the US GDP increased by a surprising 31%. Below is my previous analysis of S&P500 and how Elliot Wave prepares us for the crazy decline. What to expect during the week? The chart above shows that SPX decline is still making an incomplete five-wave impulse sequence. The price is expected to keep heading lower and selling the rally after a short-term swing higher is ideal. The price has the potential to retest the lower boundary of the channel to complete the bearish sequence. What's your view on S&P500? Let me know in the comment. Safe Trading! Veejahbee.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Veejahbee
2