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SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-5-25 : GAP Reversal PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will open with a GAP range from yesterday's candle Body and attempt to reverse the trend we saw last week. I believe this move will resolve to the downside, as I've been warning of the May 2-5 Major Bottom for many weeks. I believe the extended uptrend over the last few weeks was pure speculation related to Q1 US earnings. It is hard to argue that traders playing into the Q1 earnings boost didn't play the right side of the trend after watching the markets rally over the past 2+ weeks. But, I still believe the markets will consolidate and attempt to move downward over the next 10- 20+ days. The one thing that we have to understand is Q1 was almost on auto-pilot from Biden's economy/spending until Trump threw a curveball at the global markets with tariffs. I don't believe the US & global markets have truly priced in a global -25% to -45% economic contraction because of the ongoing tariff negotiations. It has been reported that shipping rates are down 60% in China. I believe we still need another 30-60+ days to work out the tariff issues and to allow the markets to settle into proper expectations for future economic output/growth. Because of this, I continue to urge traders to stay cautious. Sitting on CASH right now (only trading 20% of your total capital) is probably the smartest thing you can do at the moment. I still expect the July and October 2025 lows to be the base/bottom of the markets, leading to a stronger upward price trend. Right now, I've very cautious we've just seen a "dead-cat bounce" off recent lows because of Q1 earnings expectations. Now that we've passed most of the Q1 data - we are staring at Q2 & Q3. What comes next. I believe Gold/Silver will continue to price in extreme risk factors - resulting in a strong rally through May and into June. I believe Bitcoin will stall and move back down to the lower consolidation range. Let's see how things play out this week. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
3
SPY - support & resistant areas for today May 5 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, May 5th, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below. Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these. White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them. Silver Lines: An Area where price action could happen and do work on a choppy day.
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
S&P 500 Braces for a Drop to $5,100–$5,177: Correction Coming?S&P 500 Braces for a Drop to $5,100–$5,177: Is the Correction Coming? SP500 Reached the target of $5,680 - $5,800 and is going into correction along with Bitcoin 🤔. Before: After: ➖ The S&P 500 could fall to the 5100–5177 range due to the following fundamental factors: FOMC Meeting on May 7: Expected rate hold and potentially hawkish rhetoric from Powell could amplify fears of rate hikes, hitting growth stocks. ➖ Trade War: Uncertainty in U.S.-China negotiations and risks of new tariffs threaten supply chains and corporate profits. ➖ Weak Economy: GDP contraction (-0.3% in Q1), recession fears, and weak PMI data fuel pessimism. ➖ Corporate Earnings: Disappointing guidance from key companies (e.g., Apple, Tesla) could trigger sell-offs. ➖ Sentiment on X: Bearish sentiment reflects market caution. ➖ Global Risks: Retaliatory tariffs and rising gold prices signal a flight from U.S. assets. Assumption: If the Fed on May 7 emphasizes inflation risks and delays rate cuts, and tariff news remains negative, the S&P 500 could break support at 5500 and reach 5100–5177 within 1–2 weeks, especially amid technical selling and market panic.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by SergioRichi
S&P Melt-Up, FOMC, Gold, Bitcoin - Key Levels and OutlooksHappy Saturday!!! I just finished a live roundtable session so charts and analysis was fresh on the mind. S&P just closed 9 consecutive days higher S&P Futures 9 green candles The melt-up has been slow and steady, but persistent Markets are now "repaired" back to or above the US Liberation Day break levels on April 2/April 3 I see some near-term resistance in the S&P with FOMC coming this week. There are some reasonable gaps lower for some pullbacks, but the PAIN trade persists. The "pain" trade now is higher highs because sentiment is so bearish. The "pain" trade if we see all-time highs would be a bull trap. FED is likely staying paused for May and June per the FED Watch Tool and the first rate cut may start in July 2025. But I'm watching US Yields to see if they persist higher because that may ruin the FED's plan and power and 40+ year correlations. Eyes wide open and small risk. Short-term strategies are doing well in this environment. I'll continue to grind. Thanks for watching!!!
CBOE:XSP
by ChrisPulver
ES Futures at a Crossroads: Fed Steady, Market ReadyCME_MINI:ES1! Recent Market Performance ES Futures experienced a significant decline of 22.30% from the February 19, 2025 high of 6218.50 to the recent low of 4832 on Monday, April 7th, 2025. This drawdown included a sharp 16.30% sell-off, triggered by the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, marking a decline from the April 2, 2025 high to the April 7th low. Since forming that low, ES Futures have rebounded impressively—rallying 18.48% into the May 2nd high, retracing well over 50% of the losses. Notably, price action has closely respected Fibonacci retracement levels, as illustrated in the accompanying chart. Macro Fundamentals There are several macroeconomic considerations at play: • Quarterly GDP data appears skewed due to front-loaded imports, evident in the January and February import numbers. • This week’s March trade balance, imports, and exports data for both the U.S. and China will be crucial. These figures will shed light on how escalating tariff tensions have influenced Q1 business activity. • The key event this week is the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and FOMC press conference. Of particular interest will be how the Fed’s risk outlook has evolved in light of Trade War 2.0, along with updates to growth and inflation forecasts. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, there are increasing calls from President Trump to cut rates. Although recent soft data has shown signs of deterioration, this has not yet translated into hard data. In fact, April’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report beat expectations, underscoring continued economic resilience. Key Question: What Comes Next? Will ES Futures continue to trend higher, reverse lower, or consolidate? Key Technical Levels • mCVAL: 5635 • Upper Neutral Zone : 5620 – 5585 • March 2025 Low: 5533.75 • Lower Neutral Zone : 5171.75 – 5150.75 Fibonacci Retracement Levels (2025 High to Low) • 2025 High: 6218.50 • 0.786 Retracement: 5921.75 • 0.618 Retracement: 5688.75 • 0.5 Level (Mid-Range): 5525.25 • 2025 Low: 4832 Our View We believe downside risks are currently minimized, barring a new market-moving development—such as a disruptive social media post. Q1 earnings have broadly reflected strength, reducing the probability of further downside in the near term. Given the current backdrop: • Positive news could act as a catalyst for higher prices. • In the absence of significant newsflow, we expect consolidation, followed by a potential resumption of the upward trend. Scenario 1 A pullback to either the blue support zone near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement confluence, or a deeper pullback towards the confluence of the 2025 mid-range and March 2025 lows, followed by a continuation higher. Scenario 2 Seasonality supports consolidation. Historical index behavior at this time of year further aligns with the potential for sideways movement before the next leg higher.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 5–9, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 5–9, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Rates Amid Political Pressure The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during its meeting on May 6–7, despite political pressure to lower it. Investors will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision remarks for insights into future monetary policy directions. 📊 Key Economic Indicators on Tap This week brings several important economic data releases, including the U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, consumer credit, and wholesale inventories. These indicators will provide insights into the health of the economy amid ongoing trade tensions and concerns over consumer confidence. 💼 Corporate Earnings in Focus Major companies such as Palantir ( NASDAQ:PLTR ), Advanced Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ), Uber ( NYSE:UBER ), Walt Disney ( NYSE:DIS ), and Ford ( NYSE:F ) are scheduled to report earnings this week. Investors will be watching these reports for signs of how companies are navigating the current economic landscape. 🌐 Global Events and Leadership Changes Europe is set for significant leadership changes, with Friedrich Merz expected to be confirmed as Germany’s new chancellor. Additionally, the Vatican’s conclave to elect a new pope convenes on Wednesday. These events, along with the 80th anniversary of VE Day, may have broader implications for global markets. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, May 5: 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Composite PMI (April Final) 10:00 AM ET: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (April) 📅 Tuesday, May 6: 8:30 AM ET: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (March) 📅 Wednesday, May 7: 2:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision 2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference 📅 Thursday, May 8: 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims 10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (March) 📅 Friday, May 9: 3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit (March) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear friends, SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 566.62 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 542.79 Recommended Stop Loss - 579.54 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
1
May 2nd Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis** May 2nd Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis** EOD accountability report: +821 Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup: Another great day in the market, Signals worked decent. **Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System** — 12:50 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal :check: — 1:12 PM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal :x: — 3:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check: Next day plan--> Over 5650 = Bullish, Under 5650 = Bearish Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
3
$RDDT Earnings Beat 30% / Earnings Growth 101.6%I have taken a position in NYSE:RDDT at $120.50 and I will put my stop on a definitive close under the 21 EMA (blue). At the current price that would be about an 8% stop. (Sometimes I take positions off before they hit my stop loss if it is not acting well.) I am looking for this to retake its prior leadership but it may not. From ATH to lowest low was a 65% drop. It has gained about 26% of that back. If you like this idea, please make it your own trade that fits with your trading rules. Reddit Beat Expectations Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 4:06 PM ET Reddit (RDDT) reported earnings of $0.13 per share on revenue of $392.36 million for the first quarter ended March 2025. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.02 per share on revenue of $373.33 million. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.10 per share. The company beat expectations by 30.00% while revenue grew 61.49% on a year-over-year basis. The company said it expects second quarter revenue of $410.0 million to $430.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $399.36 million for the quarter ending June 30, 2025. Reddit is a community of communities built on shared interests, passion, and trust and is home to the most open and authentic conversations on the internet.
NYSE:RDDTLong
by jaxdog
Opening (IRA): SPY July 18th 495 Short Put... for a 5.13 credit. Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Max Profit: 5.13 ROC at Max as a Function of Strike Price: 1.04% Will generally look to roll up if the short put is in profit at 45 DTE or greater, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on at the June 513's and July 495's, and/or consider a "window dressing" roll (i.e., a roll down to a strike that is paying about the same in credit) to milk the last drops out of the position.
AMEX:SPYLong
by NaughtyPines
3
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-2-25 : Major CRUSH PatternToday's pattern is a Major CRUSH pattern in Counter-Trend mode. These types of patterns (CRUSH patterns) are usually very large range bars that move against the current price trend. A Counter-trend Major CRUSH pattern would likely be a huge bar that moves counter to a counter-trend - thus potentially BULLISH. Today, I have my reservations related to how this Major Crush pattern will setup. As I stated in my video, yesterday's price bar setup an Island type of bar (in an Evening formation) which is very typical of a topping pattern. Today, I'm expecting the markets to sell downward into the Major CRUSH pattern. I believe the move of my MRM system into Bullish Trending yesterday sets up a perfect opportunity for the markets to shake out the longs on a big CRUSH pattern today. But, I've also highlighted bullish breakaway levels on the SPY/QQQ chart for traders to be prepared for any outcome today. In short, I believe the May 2-5 Major Bottom aligns with this Major CRUSH pattern as a downward price trend today. But, I'll be prepared to take my lumps if I'm wrong and the markets rally straight upward. Over the past few days, we've seen some interesting developments in China and other places. I do not believe the US market is immune from the global slowdown which is taking place right now. Therefore, I urge traders to continue to stay protected from risks and to keep allocation levels rather small. It may seem like a fantastic time to throw out some big trades - but it is still very dangerous in this extreme volatility. I see Gold and Silver trying to base/bottom near recent lows over the next 5+ days. I still believe Gold will be trading at or near $4100 before the end of May. Bitcoin seems to have followed the SPY/QQQ upward since April 21. I believe this is pure speculation. I'm still very cautious of a breakdown in the markets right now. Let's see how this Major CRUSH pattern plays out. It should be interesting - one way or the other (again, I'm still leaning toward a BEARISH breakdown in price today). Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
20
May 1st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis**May 1st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis** EOD accountability report: +441 Sleep: 7 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup: Signals were pretty solid today, but there's heavy MM manipulation in the market so be careful trading funded accounts. Walk away if you get tilted. **Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System** 9:51 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 11:31 AM VXAlgo YM X1 Sell Signal 12:08 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 1:47 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! Next day plan--> Over 5600 = Bullish, Under 5600 = Bearish Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Behind The Scenes ResearchI want to say thank you to all of you and to share with you all the work/resources/servers/and other data I maintain to help me identify where and how the markets will present opportunities to all of us. This video shows you a bit of the behind-the-scenes work I do and some of my proprietary modeling systems. I'm not sharing this with you to try to win you over or to tell you I do more than anyone else in terms of research. I'm sure there are many others who go much further than I do in terms of trying to dissect the markets and the opportunities available. But I do believe I deliver very unique research, which is a one-of-a-kind solution for traders. Again, I'm not 100% accurate (I wish I were). But I am trying to share some of the decision-making solutions I use to understand where the markets are likely to move over the next 2- 4+ months and how traders can profit from my research. Remember, you are only seeing about 10% of my total research, tools, modeling systems, and capabilities in these Plan Your Trade videos. I want to thank all of you who continue to value my work. It is not easy. It takes money, time, and resources to continue to monitor all of these systems/algos. The end result, I believe, is one of the most unique future/current modeling system resources you can find anywhere. Again, thank you for making my research a success. I promise to do more and improve my tools over the next 12+ months for everyone to find better profits. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
2
Elliott Wave top on SPY’s monthly chartTechnical Analysis: Wave Structure (Elliott Wave) • Wave 1–2: Early 2020 correction (COVID crash) marked a clear wave 2 bottom. • Wave 3: Strong impulsive rally from mid-2020 to late 2021 — massive liquidity-driven. • Wave 4: 2022–2023 pullback — clean retracement to ~0.382 Fib, validating wave structure. • Wave 5: Parabolic final rally peaking around $550–560 (currently topping or topping out). Bearish Signals: • Volume divergence — Price up, but monthly volume flat-to-declining. Distribution behavior. • Completed 5-wave structure — Indicates exhaustion. • (A)-(B)-(C) Correction Starting: The projection shows: • Wave A targeting ~$420–440. • Wave B dead cat bounce. • Wave C projecting a deeper correction into $300–340 zone (around 0.5 to 0.618 retracement). Fibonacci Confluence Zones: • 0.382 = ~$450 • 0.5 = ~$390 • 0.618 = ~$340 These zones will act as major liquidity pools for institutional entries or macro rebalancing. Macro Headwinds Fuel the Narrative: • Sticky inflation • Rising interest payments on U.S. debt • Deteriorating liquidity (QT regime) • Over-leveraged consumer and commercial debt sectors
AMEX:SPYShort
by graphsandcoffee