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SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-21 : Inside-BreakawayI've been very clear over the past few weeks that I believe the markets are poised for a rollover/topping pattern and I believe BTCUSD is showing us exactly how/when that rollover top is going to play out (June 1-June 9). In the meantime, I believe the SPY/QQQ are entering a more volatile "early topping" formation while still in an uptrend (Bullish). I urge traders to start watching various sectors for weakness and keeping your eyes open for any signs the market could be moving into a sideways price rotation. I think the rollover top will be aligned with some financial event (trade/tariff/other) that will result in a broad disruption of the US/Global markets. And I believe BTCUSD will lead the move by about 4-7+ days. Gold and Silver are starting to move higher again. That is a sure sign that traders are now more actively seeking to hedge global risks (again). I believe this move higher in metals may continue through this week and into next week (looking for that top in the SPY/QQQ). Follow my detailed BTCUSD video to learn why BTCUSD may continue to try to push a bit higher before topping and moving into a broad price decline. Get some.. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
9
05/20/25 Trade Journal, and Where is the Stock Market going tomoEOD accountability report: +293.75 Sleep: 4.5 hours , Overall health: Calm and tired. need to catch up on sleep. What was my initial plan? Market structure was bearish so, I started the day shorting, but once market flipped bullish, I switched to BTD mode. Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System — 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! — 10:20 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal — 11:18 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 12:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! — 1:20 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal — 3:13 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal 2x signal (C+ set up) Next day plan--> Above 5900 = Bullish, if we lose 48min support at 5900--> 5800 next Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 21, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 21, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 G7 Finance Ministers Convene Amid Tariff Tensions Finance ministers from G7 nations are meeting in Banff, Alberta, focusing on restoring global stability and growth. Discussions are expected to address excess manufacturing capacity, non-market economic practices, and financial crimes. Tensions may arise due to recent U.S. tariffs affecting multiple G7 nations. 🛢️ Oil Prices Rise on Geopolitical Concerns Oil prices increased over 1% following reports that Israel may be preparing a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Such actions could disrupt Middle East oil supplies, particularly if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for crude exports. 📈 Retail Earnings in Focus Major retailers, including Lowe's ( NYSE:LOW ), Target ( NYSE:TGT ), and TJX Companies ( NYSE:TJX ), are set to report earnings today. Investors will be closely monitoring these reports for insights into consumer spending patterns amid ongoing economic uncertainties. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, May 21: 10:00 AM ET: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for April 2025 10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
5-20-25 WARNING : Bitcoin Sets Up MASSIVE Double-Top WarningI highlighted this incredible price/technical pattern in my morning Plan Your Trade video. But, I thought it was important enough to create a separate video highlighting this incredible Double-Top warning and to try to tell all of my followers to start actively protecting capital over the next 2-3+ weeks. As much as I would like to say this won't happen (meaning some type of crisis event or global financial crisis) causing a collapse in Bitcoin (and the US/Global markets) - but I believe the continued constraints on the global markets, related to Trump's policies and attempts to reduce US govt spending) will act as a devaluation event for global economies. Think about it for a minute... 1. If the US is able to remove $500-900 Billion in fraud/waste/NGO spending (of which, a portion of that spending is dedicated to supporting global initiatives/spending), this will result in a contraction (in some form) for some global economies. 2. If the US is able to negotiate more favorable tariff rates for US goods supplied to the world (where foreign nations reduce or eliminate tariffs on US goods), this will also act as a reduction in economic income for many foreign nations. 3. These combined and continued efforts to restructure the US economy into a strong and more dynamic global economic driver (more fairly balanced in terms of global trade) will come at the expense of breaking away from what has traditionally been untouched. This breaking of the past, in terms of what nations expected related to US spending and tariffs on US Goods, may represent a 15-25% (or more) contraction in foreign economic activity. If this disruption from "what was normal" results in the US Fed, or global central banks, taking emergency measures to address short-falls in their economies, this could prompt a series of events that could result in a broad devaluation type of event (very similar to what happened after COVID in 2022-2023). That event was prompted by the US Fed raising rates trying to stop inflation. This event could be the result of slower/lower economic outputs/expectations related to the changing tariff rates and the reduction in US spending throughout the world. Central Banks and regional governments may attempt to provide some type of capital stimulus to transition through this phase - but I see that as "building a bigger bubble - just waiting to pop". The smart move for global central banks is to follow the US's lead and start to move towards more austerity/accountability regarding their own economies/spending and attempt to let the devaluation price phase play out. Either way, time will tell if I'm correct or not. You have been warned. IMO, you have about 3-6 weeks before BTCUSD potentially tops and may roll into a very strong breakdown phase. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
51
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-20 : Harami-InsideToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will stay somewhat FLAT in trading. In this video, I go over the SPY/QQQ, Gold/Silver, and BTCUSD. What I find interesting in today's video is the setup in BTCUSD - being very similar to the peak in late 2021 before the double-top in Bitcoin. If my analysis is correct, we are moving into a type of final speculative phase (bullish) that will quickly transition into a type of breakdown move in the US/Global markets. Gold should do very well once this move sets up and begins to drive the Risk/Hedge trade. In the meantime, sit back and wait for this speculative move to phase out (top). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
2
Where is the Stock Market going tomorrow? Trade Journal 05/19/25EOD accountability report: +500 Sleep: 3.5 hours , Overall health: tired What was my initial plan? Short if market went under 5920, long with X7 buy signals, and short at 5968 area, and long if we retrace to 5925s overall market went accordingly to Bullish structure and x7 buy signal. that's the whole reason of the system, to let you know what the market is and all you need to do is follow accordingly instead of fighting it. Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System — 7:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 9:36 AM VXAlgo X7 Buy Signal, ticker = NQ1!, price = 21281.25 — 2:00 PM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal — 2:35 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! Next day plan--> Above 5920/5900 = Bullish, if we lose 48min support at 5928 --> 5875 next Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by WallSt007
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 20, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 20, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 Bear Market Concerns Emerge Veteran investor David Kotok warns of a potential bear market, projecting that tariffs could reduce S&P 500 earnings per share from $260 to $230 over the next year. This outlook suggests a possible decline of the index to the 4,000–4,400 range, with elevated Treasury yields further pressuring valuations. 🚢 Retail Inventory Challenges Amid Tariff Uncertainty The Port of Los Angeles reports potential lower inventories for retailers due to ongoing U.S.-China tariff uncertainties. Despite a temporary 90-day tariff reduction, complexities in forecasting cargo volumes persist, potentially leading to fewer product choices and rising prices for consumers. 🛍️ Retail Earnings Spotlight Major retailers, including Home Depot ( NYSE:HD ), are set to report earnings today. Investors will closely monitor these reports for insights into consumer spending patterns amid economic uncertainties. 💬 Federal Reserve Officials Scheduled to Speak Federal Reserve officials, including Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Boston Fed President Susan Collins, are scheduled to speak today. Their remarks will be scrutinized for indications of future monetary policy directions. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, May 20: 10:00 AM ET: Labor Force Characteristics of Foreign-born Workers (Annual 2024) 10:00 AM ET: State Job Openings and Labor Turnover for March 2025 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Rising wedge on SPY - Melt up? or Next leg down? Immediate Bias (Tomorrow): Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation (Low Probability unless there's a macro catalyst): Breaks above ~$596–$598 cleanly Retests that zone as support (watch 595.50 intraday) Then targets: 600 psychological 604–608 upper resistance channel Possible end-of-month blow-off top: 612–618 Scenario 2 – Pullback / Rejection (More Probable Setup): Rejected at ~596–597 zone (which aligns with upper wedge resistance) Breakdown below $590 intraday Then targets: 587.80 EMA cluster (20/50) If lost → 576.44 next EMA + demand level Followed by major support at 565.87 / 563.43 🔥 Week Ahead Trade Plan (May 20–24) ✅ Bullish Possibility: If NVDA earnings, FOMC minutes, or macro data surprise to the upside Watch for breakout above the red wedge and hold above 600 Target range: 604 → 612 max upside 🚨 Bearish Scenario: Wedge breakdown below ~$590 Momentum cracks down to: 587 576 (watch for bounce) If panic selling → 565–563 (larger time frame buying zone) Volume divergence and overbought EMAs support a potential cool-off. 📅 Monthly Projection (End of May): If wedge breaks down → consolidation range between 563 – 587 If wedge breaks out → blow-off rally up to 612–620, but likely to fade quickly Fed commentary and NVDA earnings on May 22 will be major catalysts 📌 Key Levels Type Price Notes Resistance (R3) 612–618 Final upside blow-off zone (channel top) Resistance (R2) 604 Overhead channel line Resistance (R1) 595–598 Wedge top + major resistance Support (S1) 587 EMA cluster + strong local demand Support (S2) 576 Clean structure + prior breakout Support (S3) 565–563 Confluence of long-term EMAs + trendline 🎯 Trade Setups 📉 Bearish (Favored if no breakout tomorrow): Short 595–597 with stop above 600 Targets: 587 → 576 Optional: Add below wedge break (~590) 📈 Bullish (Confirmation-based): Break + retest of 597–600 Target: 604, then scale out at 612 Avoid front-running long unless you see volume + price close outside wedge
AMEX:SPY
by wesu7gcs
2
THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT!🔥 THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT! 🔥 Can you see the shift?! VOLUME IS HERE—AND IT'S MASSIVE. 💪💰 Unlike those weak, fleeting rallies that got crushed under waves of red, this one is packed with bullish buyers and offside hedge funds READY TO SEND IT HIGHER. 🚀📈 Not to mention the last time we had this level of above average volume for this long was in October 2023 when we were coming out of a bear market and it was only the beginning of our ascent higher! I'm not saying we can't have a pullback soon...I'm just simply saying the volume is here and it looks like dips will indeed be shallow. ATH retest INBOUND! Are you positioned for the move? 👀 AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by RonnieV29
4
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-19 : Gap Breakaway In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will start with an opening price GAP (downward in this case) and could continue to move into a Breakaway pattern. Given the recent news of a US Credit Downgrade, I'm suggesting all traders prepare for what may become a period of sideways price volatility over the next 3-5+ days. I've highlighted a potential breakdown range on the SPY/QQQ on my charts that I believe acts as a solid confirmation level related to any potential reversal/breakdown in trend. Currently, the trend is still BULLISH. If price falls below my breakdown range (the angled rectangle on my charts) - then I believe price will have broken this upward FLAGGING trend channel and will begin to move downward - targeting lower support levels. This is a critical time for the markets. If we fail to move higher at these levels, we have a long way to go (downward) before we attempt to find any support. Gold and Silver appear to be attempting to break the FLAG HIGH of an Inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. This could prompt a strong rally phase back above $3300/$33 for Gold/Silver over the next few days. Time will tell how things play out. BTCUSD appears to be REJECTING the recent highs within a consolidation range. If this rejection continues, I see BTCUSD moving downward - trying to reach the $95k (or lower) looking for support. Remember, we are still generally BULLISH and moving upward within the FLAGGING channel. If we do get a breakdown in price over the next few days, it will become clearly evident on the charts and we'll have to begin to change our expectations. Right now - HEDGE. Get Some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK): FAQ guide before investing🚀 Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK): A Deep Dive into Holdings and Hypothetical Returns 🌟 The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) is a popular exchange-traded fund offering investors access to some of the largest and most dynamic growth-oriented companies in the U.S. market. MGK closely tracks the CRSP US Mega Cap Growth Index, emphasizing mega-cap stocks. 🎯 Key Features of MGK 💰 Expense Ratio: 0.07%, a cost-effective choice for investors. 📊 Assets Under Management: Around $25.42 billion. 💵 Dividend Yield: 0.44%, distributed quarterly. 🏆 Top Holdings: 🍎 Apple Inc. (AAPL): 14.34% 🖥️ Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): 11.93% 🎮 NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): 10.70% 📦 Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN): 7.63% 📱 Meta Platforms Inc. (META): 4.33% 🔌 Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): 3.54% 🚗 Tesla Inc. (TSLA): 3.22% 💊 Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY): 3.20% 💳 Visa Inc. (V): 2.76% 🔍 Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): 2.31% 📌 Sector Allocation: 💻 Technology: ~52.8% 🛒 Consumer Discretionary: 15.9% 📡 Communication Services: 11.0% 📈 Performance Overview MGK has consistently demonstrated strong returns: 🗓️ Year-to-Date (YTD): 0.96% 📅 1-Year Return: ~21.09% 📆 3-Year Return: ~23.26% 📊 5-Year Return: ~19.26% 💸 Hypothetical Investment Scenarios Assuming an average annual return of 19.26%, here's how various investments might grow over five years: 💲 $10,000 Investment: Year 1: $11,926 Year 2: $14,219 Year 3: $16,951 Year 4: $20,207 Year 5: $24,070 💲 $100,000 Investment: Year 1: $119,260 Year 2: $142,190 Year 3: $169,510 Year 4: $202,070 Year 5: $240,700 💲 $1,000,000 Investment: Year 1: $1,192,600 Year 2: $1,421,900 Year 3: $1,695,100 Year 4: $2,020,700 Year 5: $2,407,000 ⚠️ Note: These returns are hypothetical and assume consistent annual performance, which may not reflect actual market volatility. 🔑 Considerations for Investors 🎯 Concentration Risk: MGK heavily invests in technology and a few major stocks, tying its success closely to these specific companies. 📉 Market Volatility: Although historically strong, MGK can be highly volatile, particularly during tech-sector downturns. 📈 Long-Term Growth: Ideal for investors seeking significant long-term capital appreciation through prominent U.S. growth firms. 📌 In Summary: MGK provides focused exposure to U.S. mega-cap growth stocks with a strong track record. Investors should consider portfolio diversification carefully due to its sector concentration.
AMEX:MGKEducation
by ProjectSyndicate
28
ES1! (S&P500 Mini Futures) - Support Trendline Price Test -DailyES1! (S&P500 Mini Futures) price is currently testing a support trendline around $5900. If several daily Price candles close below $5865 this month, a pullback in the price can occur (rising wedge pattern). Volume has been decreasing in May 2025, compared to March and April. Finance and Technology corporate earnings season has passed. The U.S. government 90-day tariff pause is set to expire in early July (pending trade deal negotiations with other countries). Tariff and trade deal news, breaking news, corporate earnings, government law changes, consumer sentiment, inflation data, the FOMC, and presidential announcements can all affect the prices of stocks and ETFs.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by NoFomoCharts
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 19–23, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 19–23, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 Moody's Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing concerns over rising national debt and interest payment ratios. This move aligns Moody's with previous downgrades by Fitch and S&P Global, potentially impacting investor sentiment and increasing market volatility. 🛍️ Retail Earnings in Focus Major U.S. retailers, including Home Depot ( NYSE:HD ), Lowe’s ( NYSE:LOW ), Target ( NYSE:TGT ), TJX Companies ( NYSE:TJX ), Ross Stores ( NASDAQ:ROST ), and Ralph Lauren ( NYSE:RL ), are set to report earnings this week. Investors will be closely monitoring these reports for insights into consumer spending patterns amid ongoing tariff concerns. 💬 Federal Reserve Officials Scheduled to Speak Several Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Michelle Bowman and New York Fed President John Williams, are scheduled to speak this week. Their remarks will be scrutinized for indications of future monetary policy directions, especially in light of recent economic data and market developments. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, May 19: 8:30 AM ET: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks. 8:45 AM ET: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams speak. 10:00 AM ET: U.S. Leading Economic Indicators for April. 📅 Tuesday, May 20: 8:30 AM ET: Building Permits and Housing Starts for April. 10:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks. 📅 Wednesday, May 21: 10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales for April. 10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report. 📅 Thursday, May 22: 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims. 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI for May. 📅 Friday, May 23: 10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales for April. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY Daily Chart Taz Plan - May 2025 into June-July Breakdown📉 SPY Daily Chart Trading Plan — May 2025 Thesis: Price has returned to the exact level ($594.20) where the February impulse breakdown began. This zone is acting as a Lower High rejection within a broader bearish structure. A clean rejection here opens the door to multiple inefficiency fills below. 🔍 Structure Breakdown: Feb High (ATH): $613.23 Feb Open: $592.67 Feb Close (last green candle before impulse): $594.20 Current Price: $594.20 Marked LH: $592.50 This is a rally back into rejection, not strength. 📉 Key Zones & Gaps: 🔺 Gap Supply: $566.48 – $578.50 🔺 Wick Gap: $558 – $566 → Needs a full-body candle to initiate fill 🟥 FVG (4/22): $528 – $541.52 🧱 Major Support: $481.80 🧠 Trade Plan: Short Entry 1 (Confirmation-Based): 🔻 Red candle rejection under $592.50 = starter short 🔻 Watch RSI and MACD for momentum fade Short Entry 2 (Gap Breach): 🔻 If $578 is broken and retested → scale in 🔻 Gap fill expected quickly once triggered Short Entry 3 (Wick Gap): 🔻 Body close through $558 = last add 🔻 Sets up for final flush to FVG 🎯 Targets: $578.50 → $566.48 (Gap Fill) $558 → $541.52 (Wick Gap & FVG Top) $528 – $530 (FVG Close) $481.80 (Long-Term Panic Target) ❌ Invalidation: Daily close > $595.50 = Pause thesis Weekly close > $600 = Structural shift, short squeeze zone 🧠 Final Thoughts: This isn’t just a gap fill play — it’s a structural fade from a lower high back into memory. The Feb impulse wave left behind layers of inefficiency, and price just tapped the origin of the breakdown. Momentum is peaking. If this is a trap, the downside should begin immediately. Let the chart prove it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TazmanianTrader
3
US Downgrade, 3-5-10% Pullbacks But Still Bullish on S&PHappy Sunday!!! US Futures open lower after Friday's close and Moody's downgrade. Last time this occurred in 2011, the S&P dropped around 10% from the "news." This is all interesting timing but I'm still liking pullbacks for opportunities to position bullish in the US indexes (S&P, Nasdaq, Dow) Because the melt-up continues to run (US/China gap last week and drift higher), I'm trying to stay patient for a pause or pullback Trump and Bessent are still chirping about Tariffs and a government "detox" so a round of trade war related news may help calm the market's red hot advance post April 7 lows I'm selling calls on owned positions for income. I'm waiting for more favorable levels to add new positions, but within 3-4% of all time highs for the S&P and Nasdaq I don't think anybody will be surprised to see the all-time highs revisited in the near to medium-term Let's have a great week - thanks for watching!!! -Chris Pulver
AMEX:DIA
by ChrisPulver
Buyers Stand By And Be Ready! In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of May 18 - 24th. The Stock Indices remain bullish. So buys are warranted for next week. Gold and Silver pulled back last week on news of Trump's deals and sanction relief. But Gold is at support now. Watch for bullish setups for buys or a bearish market structure shift before seeking sells. Crude Oil is near buy side liquidity. Look for short term buys before a longer term, high probability sell setup to form. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by RT_Money
$MSTR Monthly Top Form: “Backwards 4” + Multi-TF RSI DivergenceBefore we begin... trading view is restricting my post for an indicator.. maybe someone reported it... not sure... doesn't seem like a problem... it's a TD Sequential ... 🔍 The Setup — Monthly “Backwards 4” Pattern + Multi-Timeframe Breakdown We’re now forming the 5th candle in what I call the “Backwards 4” formation, or the upside-down lowercase ‘h’ — a recurring reversal structure I’ve tracked at macro tops. Structure breakdown: ✅ Strong monthly green candle 2–3. 🔻 Two red candles that retrace the body but don’t break it ✅ A second green candle that re-tests the highs and baits breakout buyers ❌ Final candle closes red → confirms exhaustion → multi-month drawdown begins We saw this exact setup in early 2021 before MSTR collapsed from $1,000+ to $134. The pattern is now repeating — but this time it’s backed by RSI + MACD divergences on all major timeframes. 📊 Multi-Timeframe Technical Breakdown 📆 Monthly Inside the “Backwards 4” zone now (candle 5) RSI Bear Divergence: price made new highs but RSI keeps printing lower highs MACD flattening after extended expansion Volume fading for 3 months straight 📌 Momentum is dying while price floats. That’s not strength — that’s late-cycle distribution. 📆 Weekly TD9 printed this week at the top of a tight 5-month box RSI rejected at 63.61 — exact same rejection level as last cycle highs MACD histogram curling while price stayed flat Range: ~$338–$430 → energy has been spent 📌 This isn’t breakout behavior — it’s a liquidity trap. 📆 Daily Double top attempt failed at $406 MACD crossed bearish, histogram turning red RSI Bear Divergence Confirmed: Price made higher highs from April to May RSI made lower highs, tagging 66.90 vs. 74.70 earlier this year 📌 Daily has now logged 3 bearish RSI divergence peaks since February. 📋 Trading Plan (as of May 17, 2025) Position: No current short — stalking ideal entry Entry Zone: $406–$410 rejection zone (upper box resistance) Trigger: Daily close under $390 confirms failed breakout Add Confirmation: Weekly close under $375 = trend shift Stop: Above $430 monthly high (invalidates breakout fade) Target 1: $320–$290 (May red close zone) Target 2: $262 (range midpoint / fib retrace) Target 3: $240 (prior base support) Stretch Targets: $175 and $102 if macro breaks down Waiting for clean structure breakdown before initiating core position. This is a setup worth being early but precise on. 🧠 Final Thoughts: This is one of my highest conviction macro top setups. The “Backwards 4” is showing up again with RSI and MACD fading across the board. Price is floating under resistance on weakening momentum, and volume confirms it. If May closes red, we likely begin a multi-month correction. I’m watching for the breakdown trigger under $390 to begin building short exposure, targeting sub-$300 by month-end and lower into summer if momentum continues to unwind. 📉📦 Let’s see how it finishes.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by TazmanianTrader
3
Time to short MES (S&P500) - CRASH in comingThe assumptions are: 1) The economy is slowing down. Employment data will show it shortly and convincingly. Therefore a summer or fall crash is very likely. 2) The top for S&P 500 is already in. There is always the possibility for a melt up before the crash but I think the melt up has already occured. 3) The next drop will fall below the 2022 low and above or near the covid low. 4) This is obviously not going to be as clean as depicted but the drop is going to be fast and between 40 to 50% from the 2024 top. 5) This is a swing trade over a 6 months to 18 months timeframe. 6) Trump is going to keep messing with the tariffs until the damage to the economy takes a very long time to recover. Markets will discount this at a higher interest rate which will be very harsh for the markets. I am starting to take positions now and will add if it moves up.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by adventurous51