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SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 10, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariff Pause and Increased Tariffs on China: President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most trading partners but increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. This move led to a surge in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 rising by 9.5% and the Dow Jones by 7.9%. ​ 🇨🇳📈 China's Retaliatory Tariffs: In response, China imposed additional tariffs of 84% on U.S. goods, escalating trade tensions and impacting global markets. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, April 10: 📈 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 0.1%​ Previous: 0.2%​ Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, indicating inflation trends. ​ 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 219,000​ Previous: 225,000​ Reports the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, reflecting labor market conditions. ​ 🗣️ Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Testifies to Senate (10:00 AM ET): Provides insights into the Federal Reserve's perspective on economic conditions and monetary policy. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY Analysis & Tariff TurmoilLast Friday, the market pressure was intense, and my bullish call option, targeting $537.64 on SPY, seemed overly ambitious as tariffs and political uncertainties peaked. I stated, " AMEX:SPY Trump went all in thinking he had the cards. We were getting sent back to the McKinley era," wondering when or if Trump would fold under international pressure and market realities. Fast-forward to Wednesday, April 8—Trump didn't just blink; he folded utterly, reversing the harsh tariff policies he initially defended aggressively. Prompted by China's aggressively dumping of U.S. Treasuries and stark recession warnings from Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and JPMorgan, Trump pivoted significantly: • Base tariffs: 10% • Tariffs on China: Increased to 125% • Tariffs on U.S. goods entering China: Increased to 84% starting April 10 While temporarily bullish, these sudden, dramatic policy swings underline ongoing instability and volatility. However, with big bank earnings on deck this Friday, short-term momentum looks positive. Technical Levels & Trade Ideas Hourly Chart The hourly chart reveals a critical zone—dubbed "Liberation Day Trapped Longs"—between $544.37 (H. Vol Sell Target 1b) and $560.54 (L. Vol ST 2b). Bulls trapped here from recent highs may now look to exit on a relief rally. • Bullish Scenario: • Entry: SPY reclaiming and holding above $544.37. • Target 1: $560.54 (top of trapped longs) • Target 2: $566.54 (next resistance area) • Stop Loss: Below recent lows near $535 to limit downside. • Bearish Scenario (if tariffs intensify again or earnings disappoint): • Entry: Breakdown confirmation below $535. • Target 1: $522.20 (Weeks Low Long) • Target 2: $510.00, potential further support • Stop Loss: Above $544.50 to manage risk effectively. Daily Chart Perspective The broader daily chart shows SPY stabilizing around key lower supports after significant volatility. Recent price action suggests cautious optimism for an upward bounce, but considerable headwinds remain if tariff escalations resume. Final Thoughts The rapid tariff reversals and heightened volatility are unsettling. The short-term bullish move offers potential quick upside trades into earnings, but caution remains paramount. You can continue managing risks prudently and watch closely for political or economic headlines that could quickly shift market sentiment again.
AMEX:SPY
by HispanicHedge
4
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-9 : Top/Resistance UpdateToday's big rally, prompted by Trump's Tariff comments, presents a real learning opportunity for traders and followers of my videos. Everyone wants to know what's going to happen next. This video will tell you what I believe is NEXT for the markets and why. It should also reinforce the construct that price is the ultimate indicator and the use of the EPP/Cradle patterns as a mechanism for using price structure to attempt to identify where opportunities may exist. As much as this video is an analysis of price action and a prediction of what may come next, it is also a tutorial showing you how to use price patterns, structure and context to attempt to plan for your next opportunities. Ideally, the next phase of the market is to establish a consolidation range. If the 480-525 lower consolidation range does not hold - then it will likely become a precursor of the July breakdown (support) level. Remember, we still have the July/Oct lows to deal with. I fully expect the 550-575 consolidation range to become the new dominant consolidation phase for the current EPP pattern. It makes sense to me that, absent any crazy tariff war, the most likely outcome will be for the markets to recover back to the 550-575 level and to consolidate further. The last component we have to consider is the recent lows near 480 could have been a very quick breakdown to an Ultimate Low. If that is the case, then we'll most into a mode of seeking the next higher resistance level and I believe the 550 or 575 level would be the obvious next resistance level. So, at this point, I believe the continuation of the Excess Phase Peak pattern is likely, but the price is actively seeking the consolidation range between the lower consolidation level and the upper consolidation level. Price MUST establish the consolidation range, or INVALIDATE this pattern, in order to move onto the next pattern/phase. Get Some.. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
12
Who Benefits from the Dunce Tariff Tsar? The Art of The Short: When SPY Bleeds, Dracula Drinks Today we’re diving deep into the MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN (SPYU), the ultimate degenerate’s playground for snorting the market when SPY takes a nosedive. Tonight, my fellow nightwalkers, I wipe my mouth after my fangs bite into MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN (SPYU) the juiciest vein in the market’s pale white supremisist neck, ripe for snorting when SPY collapses under the weight of its own mortal greed. I’m Dracula, your undead degen, and I’ve been snorting the lifeblood of Wall Street since the days of ticker tape and blood-soaked ledgers. Let’s feast. Picture this: it’s 2025, Trump’s slapping tariffs on everything from iPhones to tacos, and the S&P 500’s staggering like a peasant drained dry. SPY’s down 5% in a day, a crimson river flowing for weeks. With SPYU’s 4x leverage, that ETN’s plummeting 20% faster than you can hiss “inverse gang rise up.” You bulls might clutch your pearls, or buy the dip but baby, you just giving me that drip, drip, drip. Here’s the blood ritual: I summon my broker under the moonlight, borrow SPYU shares, sell ‘em at their bloated peak, and slink back to my coffin until the orange man dumps on the market. When SPYU’s rallies, I buy ‘em back, pocketing the difference—20% gains, minus the broker’s measly tithe and some bat-winged fees. The leverage is my coffin nail, amplifying SPY’s death throes into a banquet of tendies. But volatility decay’ll stake you faster than a hedgie fleeing a short squeeze. Snort quick, my pretties. Disclaimer: This is unholy entertainment, not mortal advice. Snorting’s riskier than a sunrise stroll, and you could lose your crypt. Do your own necromancy, don’t YOLO your blood money, and maybe consult a living advisor instead of a WSB vampire. Markets are feral, tariffs are feraler, and SPYU’s the feralest. Feast wise, or crumble to dust. What in the Nosferatu Is SPYU, and Why’s It My Prey? Listen up, you sun-kissed ghouls. SPYU ain’t some mortal ETF and it’s an exchange-traded note, a dark pact scrawled by the Bank of Montreal (BMO), swearing to bleed 4x the daily pulse of the S&P 500 Total Return Index. Four times the thrill, you hear me? If SPY, that sanctimonious index hog, rises 1%, SPYU surges 4%, a moonlit frenzy. But when SPY stumbles 1%, SPYU’s gutted by 4%, and that’s when I, Dracula, snort its essence like fresh blood from a virgin’s neck. It’s my chalice of chaos. Why care? Because the market’s a bloated corpse waiting to be drained, and Trump’s tariffs are the silver dagger. When SPY bleeds, SPYU’s leverage makes it a four-course meal for us snortin’ fiends. The mortals weep; I feast. Bank of Montreal: The Crypt-Keepers Who Sip Regardless SPYU’s birthed by Bank of Montreal—pale Canucks who guzzle maple syrup and hedge under torchlight. As an ETN, it’s no stock hoard, it’s a blood oath, with BMO bound to pay 4x the S&P’s dance. When SPY falls and SPYU’s carcass sinks, BMO’s debt shrivels, like a thrall freed from my thrall. Are they cackling over goblets? Not quite. These coffin-dwellers don’t wager their vault on market whims. They weave dark hedges swaps, futures, maybe cursed options traded in shadow pools. When SPY bleeds, their short futures might fatten their coffers, balancing the SPYU tab. But the true leeching? A 2.95% expense ratio, sucked from your veins whether SPY soars or sinks. It’s their eternal tithe for the win, lose, or draw, they’re sipping. And the twist of the fang? BMO might pawn some risk to swap thralls, other banks, hedge funds, or their own brood. When SPY tanks, those on the hedge’s far side might choke on losses, but their names are buried deeper than my Transylvanian crypt. Prospectuses are murkier than a fog-draped moor, and BMO ain’t etching their secrets in blood. My bet? They keep it in-clan or with beasts who can bear the bite. The real feast is mine (snorting SPYU) and theirs (skimming fees). Trump’s Tariffs: The Rocket Fuel for SPYU Shorts Let’s talk about the big dunce red elephant in the room: Trump’s tariffs. The man’s got a hard-on for trade wars, and 2025’s looking like a sequel to his 2018 tariffpalooza. The 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, 102% on China, and who knows what else. Why’s this a big deal? Tariffs jack up import costs, screw over supply chains, and make everything from cars to CPUs pricier. Companies like Apple, Walmart, and Tesla, big S&P 500 names get hit hard, and SPY feels the pain. When SPY drops, SPYU’s 4x leverage turns a market dip into a bloodbath and that makes my fangs erect like a male pornstar on viagra. Say Trump slaps a more tariff on Chinese goods, and SPY falls another 15% as tech stocks puke. Do the math on how much SPYU goes down in a day. Scale that up with a big position, and you’re buying Lambos while the bulls are crying into their maga cool aid. But tariffs don’t just hit stocks, they spook the whole market. Investors panic, volatility spikes, and leveraged products like SPYU get wild. That’s your cue to strike. The VIX (fear index) shoots up during tariff tantrums, and SPYU’s daily resets mean bigger swings. If you’re nimble, you can ride those red days for fat gains. Just don’t get greedy—tariff news is noisy, and markets can bounce on a single Trump tweet (or whatever he’s posting on Truth Social these days). See that little, indicator I cant publish? Oh, and my little bat-trick? The Sector Value Index (SVI)—my ancient grimoire. It tracks RSI and MFI across SPY’s veins, averages the pulse, and measures the gap to the index. Overbought or oversold, it whispers when the market’s ripe for snorting. When SVI screams “sell,” I pounce.
AMEX:SPYUShort
by livingdracula
Trump's Tariff Wars : Why It Is Critical To Address Global TradeThis video, a continuation of the Trump's Tariff Wars video I created last week, tries to show you why it is critically important that we, as a nation, address the gross imbalances related to US trade to global markets that are resulting in a $1.5-$1.8 TRILLION deficit every fiscal year. There has been almost NOTHING done about this since Trump's last term as President. Our politicians are happy to spend - spend - spend - but none of them are worries about the long-term fiscal health of the US. (Well, some of them are worried about it - but the others seem to be completely ignorant of the risks related to the US). Trump is raising this issue very early into his second term as president to protect ALL AMERICANS. He is trying to bring the issue into the news to highlight the imbalances related to US trade throughout the world. When some other nation is taking $300B a year from the us with an unfair tariff rate - guess what, we need to make that known to the American consumer because we are the ones that continue to pay that nation the EXTRA every year. Do you want to keep paying these other nations a grossly inefficient amount for cheap trinkets, or do you want our politicians and leaders to take steps to balance the trade deficits more efficiently so we don't pass on incredible debt levels to our children and grandchildren? So many people simply don't understand what is at risk. Short-term - the pain may seem excessive, but it may only last 30, 60, 90 days. Long-term - if we don't address this issue and resolve it by negotiating better trade rates, this issue will destroy the strength of the US economy, US Dollar, and your children's future. Simply put, we can't keep going into debt without a plan to attempt to grow our GDP. The solution to this imbalance is to grow our economy and to raise taxes on the uber-wealthy. We have to grow our revenues and rebalance our global trade in an effort to support the growth of the US economy. And, our politicians (till now) have been more than happy to ignore this issue and hide it from the American people. They simply didn't care to discuss it or deal with it. Trump brought this to the table because it is important. I hope you now see HOW important it really is. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
19
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-9 : Top/Resistance PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move a bit higher in early trading - trying to identify a resistance area. Then, roll over into a downward price trend. Be cautious of the overnight price range, potentially already setting the upper boundary of the TOP pattern for today. It can happen that overnight trading sets a PEAK/TOP, and we move into sideways/downward trading related to the current TOP/Resistance pattern. I believe the US markets will attempt to move upward, toward the $490-500+ level before topping out today. I believe this move will be related to the strong support near the $480 level and will attempt to further establish the downward price channel established by the big breakdown in trend over the past 9+ days. Ultimately, I believe price is struggling for direction, but I also believe this process (with tariffs) is working out as expected. This is obviously a very volatile market - so stay cautious as we move into a more consolidated price trend over the next few weeks. I don't expect the markets to try to make any really big moves over the next 2+ week (unless news hits). At this point, I believe the markets will try to UNWIND the volatility over the next 2+ weeks. BTCUSD is trading near the lower range of the consolidation phase. This could be the start of the breakdown to the Ultimate Low. GOLD and Silver are moving higher after forming the base (just as I expected). Metals will likely rally strongly as global fear elevates. Thank you for all the great comments. I'll try to publish a few new videos today and tomorrow to help everyone out. Remember, price gives us new information every minute/bar. It is a matter of unraveling the puzzle with price - one bar at a time. If you like what I do, follow along. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
Retests, Rallies, and Bear Swings LoadingYou know what’s better than nailing a trade? Not having to flip, flop, hedge, unhedge, reverse, scalp, and do the full Hokey Cokey just to survive. Today was one of those days – the kind where the plan just works. Futures? Wild. Down 143, up 188, then back to flat - all before most traders finished their first sip of coffee. But while price whipsaws, I’m not chasing shadows. I’ve got my line out. My bear swing is on. And I’m just waiting for the exit alert to ding. --- Let’s break down what happened: Yesterday’s tariff chaos acted like a Mr. Miyagi market prank. “Tariff on.” “Wait, just kidding.” “Tariff off.” The move up? Landed exactly at Monday's news spike and the days 5250 gamma flip level – which we had marked and mapped. Perfect resistance. Retest. Rejection. Bear pulse bars triggered. And now the swing is on. Trade location: Dialled in. Directional bias: still bearish under 5400. Execution: GEX levels + pulse bar structure. Retests, Not Reversals Tuesdays action also gave us something sneaky: An intraday retest of the recent lows. Now, if you’ve been around since the 2020 V-turn era, you’ve seen this before. Panic sell. Sharp bounce. Retest the low to check for real conviction. Then make the real move. This retest could be the prelude to a bull thesis - but not yet. Structure comes first. Bias second. Until we break clean above 5400, I stay bear-biased. --- Expert Insights: Don’t Trade Like You’re in a Dance-Off The Mistake: Overtrading volatility. Flipping bias every 15 minutes. Trading like it’s a talent show. The Fix: Pick your structure. Define your invalidation. Enter once, scale in if needed, and let it play out. No need to “turn around and shake it all about.” Leave the Hokey Cokey for weddings. --- Fun Fact During the 2015–2020 bull run, the average false breakout-to-retest cycle happened within 3 sessions after a panic reversal. Translation? Markets often retest panic lows before deciding the next big move. This isn’t new. It’s just noisy. And totally tradable. ...Another fun fact Did you know? The 104% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Chinese imports is among the highest in modern history, reminiscent of protectionist measures not seen since the early 20th century.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
Spy what I see with my little eyeTraders, Fear, trade wars, WW3, Tariffs and a bunch of I told you soo's..... "You voted for this!" just a bunch of chirping. Because this man got to being a billionaire being a silly goose yeah? What happens when them 401k's start 3x'n, what happens when we see one of the biggest bull markets we have experienced in our lifetime? I don't know much but I know this..... the bull market may not be over. Just taking a break! Enjoy the hopium! Stay Profitable! Savvy
AMEX:SPYLong
by Crypto_Kinfolk
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 9, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 Implementation of New U.S. Tariffs: As of April 9, the U.S. has imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese goods, escalating trade tensions and raising concerns about a potential global economic slowdown. 🛢️📉 Oil Prices Decline Sharply: In response to escalating trade tensions, oil prices have fallen nearly 4%, reaching their lowest levels since early 2021. Brent crude dropped to $60.69 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined to $57.22. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, April 9: 📦 Wholesale Inventories (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.3%​ Previous: 0.8%​ Indicates the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers, reflecting supply chain dynamics.​ 🗣️ Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Speaks (11:00 AM ET): Remarks may shed light on economic conditions and policy perspectives.​ 📝 FOMC Meeting Minutes Release (2:00 PM ET): Provides detailed insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy deliberations from the March meeting.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
[S&P500] 2008-Style Collapse in MotionI believe we are witnessing the early stages of a 2008-style crash, though this one will unfold more swiftly and catch many by surprise. The crash will likely test the COVID-era lows, and once the panic subsides, a recovery toward new highs will follow. FUNDAMENTAL REASONS After the COVID-crash recovery, the market became significantly overbought, and a pullback was inevitable—such is the nature of markets. Trump’s tariffs have provided a convenient excuse for profit-taking. While the tariffs didn’t directly cause the crash, they served as a much-needed catalyst. What might have been a typical bull market pullback, however, could escalate into full-blown panic. Why? Index funds. For the past decade, there has been near-religious advocacy for investing solely in low-cost index funds. This extraordinary delusion has overtaken investors’ collective consciousness—the belief that no one can beat the S&P 500, nor should they try. The most rational choice, then, becomes focusing on your career or business and parking your money in index funds. After all, if the game can’t be beaten, why bother playing? This logic resonates with rational index fund buyers—many of whom lack market experience and have never been tested in the trenches of a downturn. They assume they’re in it for the long haul, unbothered by pullbacks, confident they can hold through volatility. It’s a sound and logical stance. But will they hold? It’s easy to stay committed when the market is rising. When losses mount, however, the limbic system overrides rational thought, thrusting you into survival mode. You begin calculating how many years of work you’ve “lost,” lamenting that you could have bought a house if you’d sold at the peak, or watching your children’s college fund evaporate. Sleepless nights follow, compounded by a barrage of negative news. Eventually, exhaustion sets in, and in a desperate bid to salvage what remains, you hit the sell button. With so many unsophisticated investors—who have never endured a true market panic—holding portfolios dominated by index funds, a negative feedback loop emerges. The further the market falls, the more people question their strategy and sell. This cycle intensifies until the panic is overdone, weak hands are shaken out, and the market stabilizes. It’s a tale as old as markets themselves, though today’s index fund evangelists have yet to experience it firsthand. TECHNICAL REASONS On the monthly chart, a clear and potent triple RSI divergence stands out. This indicates the market is severely overbought and has been struggling to make new highs. While technical analysis rarely delivers definitive signals and can often be ambiguous, a triple RSI divergence on a monthly chart is as strong as it gets. Monthly charts of high-market-cap indices are immune to manipulation and short-term noise—it would take an infinite amount of capital to artificially “draw” such a pattern. The 2021-2022 pullback was an Elliott Wave impulsive wave down (a Leading Diagonal). In Elliott Wave Theory, impulsive waves mark either the final leg of a correction or the first wave of a new trend. A Leading Diagonal almost always signals the latter—meaning another impulsive wave in the same direction is likely to follow. The 2022-2025 bull market, meanwhile, has proven to be an ABC corrective wave up within the broader trend. This suggests the bull run wasn’t a continuation of the prior uptrend but rather an extended correction that pushed to new highs. Thus, the leading diagonal down foreshadows another impulsive wave lower, and the corrective wave up confirms this trajectory. Since March 2025, the market has entered free-fall mode—precisely what one would expect following an upward corrective wave. This sets the stage for a high-probability Elliott Wave Expanding Flat pattern. What’s unfolding now is an impulsive wave down that should, at minimum, retest the 2022 low. If panic takes hold, however, the decline won’t find a floor until it hits a major support level—namely, the 200-month moving average (MA200 Monthly), which sits precisely at the COVID bottom. Should that occur, the magnitude of the drop would rival the 2008 crash.
SP:SPXShort
by berightandsittight
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 4-8 : Absolute PerfectionThank you. Thank you to all of you who follow my videos and believe in my research. The last few days/weeks have been absolutely incredible. My SPY Cycle Patterns, on average, are about 70-80% accurate over a 12-month span of time. There are things, like news and big events (elections, outside forces, big news) that can disrupt any market trend and completely invalidate my SPY Cycle Patterns. But, when the markets are generally left to their own accord, the SPY Cycle Patterns play out almost perfectly. Yes, traders need to learn to adopt a PLAN A vs. PLAN B mentality with my SPY Cycle Patterns. If Brad is right - this will happen. And if Brad is wrong, the opposite will likely happen. But, the comments I've been receiving over the past 20+ days have been incredible. Thank you. Knowing that I'm reaching a larger group of people now (than when I started doing these videos about a year ago) and knowing that some of you are really seeing some BIG GAINS following my research is simply incredible. I started doing these videos to prove my research and tools were incredible solutions for traders. But, at the same time, I started doing this to combat some of the scammers that are out there. In my world, watching people (or hearing from them) after they've been scammed a couple of times is heartbreaking. Most people put a lot of time and effort into trying to become skilled traders. I get it. That's why I'm doing this - to show you the right path and to show you that price is the ultimate indicator. Again, thank you from the bottom of my heart. Keep sending me those success stories and... GET SOME. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
19
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update 4-8 : Counter Trend Bottom/RallyThis video was created to help you better understand why it is important to WAIT for the SPY Cycle Patterns to setup efficiently. It is critically important that all of you learn the three basic rules of trading. 1. Never try to force a position/trade. If your research tells you some type of price event/trend is likely - don't jump into the trade too early. Wait for confirmation and wait for price to confirm your analysis is correct. 2. Start with a small position. Never GO BIG on your initial trade. If you are wrong, you can manage the trade with a small win/loss. If price moves in the direction you expect, you can add more once you get confirmation the trend will continue (potentially). 3. BOOK PROFITS early and keep BOOKING PROFITS as the trend continues higher. You can always get back into the trade with CALL/PUT options - but if you don't learn to BOOK PROFITS EARLY (20-30% profits in the trade), then you'll very likely FAIL to build your account efficiently. (Trust me, #3 is VERY IMPORTANT) Beyond these three simple concepts, one of the most important aspects of trading with my SPY cycle patterns is to learn to WAIT for the pattern to setup efficiently. Today is a great example. The BOTTOM/Rally Start pattern was in Counter-trend mode. Thus, I expected it to be INVERTED - turning it into a TOP/Selloff Start pattern. In order for that pattern to play out, we needed to see the markets open higher (and potential trend higher for a bit of time), then roll over into a top pattern. After that tops pattern setup, the markets should continue to move into a moderate selloff trend (downward). Think about it. Were you smart trying to SELL INTO the rally this morning or were you smart to wait for the ROLLOVER and sell into the breakdown trend? IMO, smart traders waited for the top to setup/confirm and started selling as we got into the breakdown trend phase. Again, I'm trying to help you learn to become a better trader. I hope this video helps. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
13
SPY S&P 500 ETF Potential W-Shaped Recovery Forming We may be witnessing the formation of a W-shaped recovery on the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – a classic double-bottom structure that often signals a strong reversal after a period of correction or volatility. Let’s dive into the technicals and what this could mean in the sessions ahead. 🔍 The Technical Setup: SPY recently tested key support around the $485-$500 zone, bouncing off that area twice in the past few weeks. This gives us the left leg of the W and the first bottom. After a modest relief rally to ~$520, we saw another pullback – but this second dip failed to break below the first bottom, a hallmark of the W-pattern. As of today, SPY is starting to reclaim ground toward the $517-$520 resistance zone. If bulls can push through this neckline area, especially with volume confirmation, we could see a breakout that targets the $530-$535 area in the short term. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch: Support: $490-$500 (double-bottom support zone) Neckline/Resistance: $530 Breakout Target: $550 (previous highs) Invalidation: A break below $490 with volume could invalidate the W-recovery idea and shift bias bearish. 📊 Momentum & Volume: RSI is climbing back above the 50 level – bullish momentum building. MACD shows a potential crossover forming, hinting at a shift in trend. Watch for increasing buy volume as SPY approaches the neckline – that’s where the bulls will need to step up. 🧠 Macro & Earnings Angle: Don’t forget – we’re entering a heavy earnings season and rate cut expectations are still a wildcard. A dovish tone from the Fed and strong corporate results could be the fuel that sends SPY higher to complete this W-shaped recovery. 🧭 Final Thoughts: This is a high-probability setup if neckline resistance is broken cleanly. Wait for confirmation before going heavy – fakeouts are common in double-bottom scenarios. If we do get the breakout, we may be looking at a broader market rebound going into summer. 🔔 Set alerts near $525. A confirmed breakout could mean the bulls are back in charge.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4/8 : Bottom/Rally Start - CounterFirst off, today's pattern is in a COUNTER TREND mode. Think of that as the pattern being INVERTED to the current price trend. Next, the Bottom/Rally Start pattern is usually a base/bottom type of pattern that prompts a fairly strong bullish/rally phase in price. This time, because it is inverted (in Counter-trend mode) and is forming within the broad consolidation phase of the current EPP pattern, I believe this Bottom/Rally Start pattern will really be a Top/Selloff start type of pattern. Where price will find resistance in early trading, form a rollover top, and start to move back downward towards the 500-505 level on the SPY. I don't believe this downward price move will attempt to break below 480-485 today. I believe today's move will be a moderate pullback in the trend. Although any BIG news could disrupt the current support near $480, so be aware that any big news event could crush the markets (again) and send the SPY trying to retest the $480 support level. Gold and Silver appear to be basing - perfect. I'm watching for Metals to really start to reflect the FEAR in the markets and rally above $3200 (Gold)/$39 (Silver). BTCUSD appears trapped in the breakdown stage of the current EPP Consolidation phase and the new CRADLE pattern. No matter how I try to identify if I'm wrong with BTCUSD, I keep seeing the breakdown as the more dominant trend. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
13
$SPY short term top downside from $521 to $481AMEX:SPY is looking like it put in a short term top here. I originally only thought that we had the potential to fall to $545 or so, but now looking at the chart, I think we have the possibility of falling farther. The two targets that I'm looking for on the downside are $524.35 and 481.18. Let's see if they get hit over the coming weeks. If they hit, it'll be the ultimate buying opp as I think from there, we're likely to see SPY over $700 in the coming year or two.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
3
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 8, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Release: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release its Small Business Optimism Index for March at 6:00 AM ET. This index provides insights into the health and outlook of small businesses, which are vital to the U.S. economy. 🗣️ Federal Reserve Speeches: ​San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is scheduled to speak at 8:00 AM ET. ​ ​Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will deliver remarks at 7:00 PM ET. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, April 8: 📈 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6:00 AM ET): Forecast: 100.7​ Previous: 102.8​ Assesses the health and outlook of small businesses, which are vital to the economy. ​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
S&P500 vs Unemployment vs Yield CurveI'd be surprised if that was the bottom in equities. 10yr/2yr is still coming out of inversion which historically is followed by a recession and a decline in equities, and we have unemployment remaining stubbornly low with only one direction to go from current levels. Market selloffs usually mean investors lose money while main street loses jobs so we should start to see the unemployment rate begin to rise from here assuming that the tariff war isn't over. Trump proved today that he has no intention of relenting on the new tariffs; when China retaliated with 34% tariffs on US goods, he immediately hit them with 50% tariffs. Not sure which side will cave first, but as long as there is uncertainty around US/China trade the risk for further declines in equities remains. The previous two times the yield curve inverted, we saw 50%+ declines in equities and rising unemployment when the curve came out of inversion. There was also a short-lived inversion in 2019 with a spike in unemployment and falling equity prices due to Covid, but the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to 0% and printing trillions of dollars kept that bear market short and sweet. We currently have a Federal Reserve that needs higher rates to fight inflation while at the same time we have a president who wants lower rates to stimulate growth. Catch-22 for the Fed: if they lower rates, they risk reigniting inflation. If they raise rates or keep them flat during a market decline it will speed up the decline in equities. Trump knows this which is why I don't think that the tariff war and market decline are over.
SP:SPXShort
by PrepForProfit
1