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Sterling

ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.01.14The power to breakdown has been developed knowingly and systematically, unlike chop/consolidation which frequently occurs. The effect of the breakdown is heightened by BOE turning very dovish and calling up for Sterling devaluation, which in their eyes must be required for offsetting the loss in UK market access. Compare the following two diagrams: Sellers step in on the election day as expected with a strong barrier. A sweep of the highs. Can sellers maintain the breakdown? In the first, the test of 1.35 sent buyers wandering on grounds of an orderly Brexit, depriving sellers valuable resistance. However, it was dangerous for buyers to carry on because the eye of Brexit is on it. After a Johnson majority came the selloff and now the attempt by sellers to reinstate the strategic breakdown which was previously broken is powerfully gaining momentum from the monetary side. Should we get the breakdown, the move will be fast as the insurance cut from BOE will not last beyond May. Bailey starts in May, it will take some time for the Johnson/Javid fiscal taps to work its way into the MPC forecasts meaning another late 2020 cut is then on the cards (not in play with this chart as will unlock 1.15). To put simply, a dovish BOE and hard Brexit will keep rates in the lower bound and QE infinity will return in 2021. For the immediate term, market clearly caught on the wrong side; 1.290x is next followed by 1.277x. Very difficult to get constructive on UK markets with BOE turning dovish. On the EURGBP side: Good luck all those on the sell side in Cable and other Sterling crosses, a lot of meat left on the bone. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc.
Short
by ridethepig
13
GBPUSD May Retrace! Trading Plan GBPUSD is approaching a resistance line of a triangle on 4H. the pair is currently quite weak so we will most likely see a pullback. the strong bearish reaction should start from the underlined blue area on 1H chart for confirmation, wait for a bearish breakout of a rising wedge. target levels here a very limited: 1.301 1.298 stop will be above the highest point of the wedge *if bulls push the market above the underlined resistance the setup will be invalid and our bias will switch to bullish
Short
by VasilyTrader
3
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.01.10By now there should be no surprises with BOE coming out on the wires at the 0.853x which was BOE stress level on the cross via Hard & Extreme Brexit scenarios (both still on the table). On the Euro side, selling has started to run out of steam and here the choice is between a breakout or more inside range trading. The first allows bulls to take charge once more; though the second allows room for more loading in the medium-term Pound shorts. We are getting closer to protecting the highs in Pound by inserting heavy support in EURGBP and protecting the lows; here the natural targets come in at 0.872x with extensions 0.90xx and 0.95xx for those trading the macro swing. The following well-know chart was played out before in EURGBP and this is no less imaginative: We shall close this chapter with a really unnatural looking move, this theatrical gesture from Carney yesterday - I mean has worked; Pound bulls want to refute it forthwith, but so far it is turning out to be very difficult. Eyes on the Pound flush for Brexit impact. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and support coming, drop a line with any ideas or charts...
Long
by ridethepig
GBPUSD: Brexit & End of Turmoil hello dear friends we continue discussing the long term projections on different financial instruments. The next currency pair on our radar is a pound dollar. Though many "guru" analysts predict a hard time for the British economy, we stick to a very simple rule: listen to what media says and do the exact opposite. With Tories win, we can declare with you the end of the uncertainty. The UK got its independence back and I want to remind you that the most powerful economic driver is freedom. New trade deals will be signed, new projects will be started. Now people can make predictions and the future is no more vague. This simple argument makes me think that over the next year we will see a bullish rally on GBPUSD. With technicals we can easily identify the first strong resistance: the area between 1.43 and 1.45 and the market is already on its way there. Let's see how it goes next year! Feel free to share your thoughts in a comment section!
Long
by VasilyTrader
4
GBP/AUD OPPORTUNITIES POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES ON GBP/AUD: In the chart, we can see 4 opportunities presenting at different price zones. This means all set-ups vary depending on which price zone we are trading at. We are still however in an uptrend still until we take out 1.850 SETUP (A) - Long positions can be considered at this price zone as a double bottom formation will form. We may get multiple tests of this price and some consolidation before moving up. POTENTIAL BUY ENTRIES & TARGETS: ENTRY - 1.85369 STOPS - 1.82636 (270 PIPS) TARGET - 1.90 (560 PIPS) SETUP (B) - Sell positions would be favorable if price shows signs of consolidation and stronger bearish power such as bearish pin bars or engulfing candlesticks. POTEINTAL SELL ENTRIES & TARGETS ENTRY - 1.952 STOPS - 1.9636 (115 PIPS) TARGET - 1.9087 (430 PIPS) SETUP (C) - Sell positions would be ideal since a head and shoulder formation would have formed. POTEINTAL SELL ENTRIES & TARGETS: ENTRIES - 1.90867 STOPS - 1.91880 (100 PIPS) TARGET - 1.85319 (550 PIPS) SETUP (D) - At this price, we have observed much uncertainty, until buyers take control of the market. We think this pattern will repeat again. POTEINTAL BUY ENTRIES & TARGETS ENTRIES - 1.80742 STOPS - 1.79276 (146 PIPS) TARGET - 1.8538 (460 PIPS) DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK. THIS IS AN IDEA.
Short
by HONEYSIGNALSFX
GBPUSD: Update hey traders, I was asked a lot about GBPUSD and my take on it. for now, I don't have any active trade on this pair. the market has finally started to slow down and the first strong support to buy from is no 1.28. I will let the market follow the falling channel until the underlined support and there I will be looking for a reversal formation to buy the market. this week I would suggest not to trade this pair and let it calm down before taking any action. good luck!
Short
by VasilyTrader
2
Shedding A Few Pounds For Christmas...GBPUSD rejected at 1.35xx which acting as major resistance after the country went back on the leadership merrygoround. Here actively selling into all rallies in GBP crosses, although there is a caveat to Pound shorts in the immediate term. With Johnson and a ruthless Downing Street in full control of the press and hitting the “right” headlines the positive narrative around Brexit will continue and therefore dips will be perceived as attractive too many. The Conservative majority was clear and simple to trade, particularly in GBPAUD : GBPUSD In any case well done all of those in shorts from the 1.35xx election highs … you will remember “ perception is more important than reality with FX ” … Remain nimble to take some chips off the table. A squeeze below 1.315x will make me excited. This next chart indicates the sense of division in Britain, a fragmented society which also highlights the stupidity to have such a referendum on a complex topic. The UK is not like Swiss for example having referendum after referendum, rather it is a representative democracy. Yet sadly we are seeing a corruption of democracy via media manipulation swerving public opinion. For example, those who remember Cameron's premiership will remember the government was at the time asking for public to remain while they were pursuing policies of austerity (decreasing consumer confidence) and served to have more damage than good. The silent revolution or protest vote (all cleverly calculated) unlocked Pandoras box with a People vs Establishment narrative: Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc. As usual jump into the comments with your ideas and views to open the discussion for all!
Short
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2019.12.16...That was it for the day on the FX board. Highlights going to EURUSD chopping through the 1.11xx handle and continuing its slow grind higher. We will need assistance from European macro numbers to make the move impulsive in nature (no surprises today’s PMIs suggest some early signs of stabilising). Services continue to do the heavy lifting while manufacturing lags badly thanks to protectionism. I will continue to add on dips and ride the pig with reassessment only necessary below 1.110x. GBPUSD … 1.35xx acting as major resistance after the country went back on the leadership merrygoround. There is a caveat to Pound shorts in the immediate term, with Johnson and a ruthless Downing Street in full control of the press and hitting the “right” headlines the positive narrative around Brexit will continue and therefore dips will be perceived as attractive too many. In any case well done all of those in shorts from the 1.35xx election highs … you will remember “ perception is more important than reality with FX ” … Remain nimble to take some chips off the table. A squeeze below 1.315x will make me excited. Good luck all those trading EURGBP, GBPUSD and EURUSD. A superb lineup as we enter into the final stages of the year, thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and questions!
Long
by ridethepig