SOL Analysis Deep Dive: Identifying Optimal Entry and Exit ZonesYesterday, SOL gave a sharp downside shakeout, dropping from the weekly open at $147.98 (perfectly retested) down to the 0.5 Fib retracement of the swing at $140.25. Here’s a structured breakdown of the key levels, trade setups, and R:R profiles for both longs and shorts:
🔑 Key Levels & Confluences
1. Higher-Timeframe Opens
Weekly Open & Retest: $147.98 – pivoted price before the drop
Monthly & Prior-Day Open Cluster: $147.98–$146.31 – strong support confluence zone
2. Fibonacci Support Zones
0.5 Fib at $140.25 – primary mean-reversion entry
0.786 Fib (smaller wave) at $138.78 – secondary, deeper support
3. Order Block
Daily Bullish Order Block at $139.87 – just below 0.5 Fib, adds extra support
4. Volume-Weighted Average Price
Anchored VWAP (from ATH $295.83) at ~$166.45 – key upside resistance
5. Market Profile Value Areas (10-Day Range)
Value Area High (VAH) at ~$153.00 – overhead resistance confluence
Value Area Low (VAL) at ~$145.75 – underpins support
📈 Long Trade Setups
1. 0.5/0.786 Fib + Daily Bullish Order Block
Entry: $141-138.78
Stop-Loss: $137.5
Target: $165 (anchored VWAP / Fib zones)
R:R ≈ 9:1
2. Higher-Timeframe Open Cluster
Entry Zone: $147.98–$146.31(monthly/weekly open)
Stop-Loss: $142.5
Target: $165
R:R ≈ 3:1
• Why these levels? The 0.5 Fib is a classic mean-reversion zone, bolstered by the daily order block. The $147–146 zone ties together multiple opens (weekly, monthly, prior-day), offering a solid demand area if price retraces back up.
📉 Short Trade Setup
Trigger: Rejection / swing-failure around $153.4
Entry: $153.4
Stop-Loss: $154.3
Target: Weekly/Monthly open (~$147)
R:R ≈ 6:1
• Low-risk short: A clean rejection at the recent high lets you define risk tightly above the swing, aiming to capture the retrace back to the opens.
🎯 Summary & Game Plan
Primary bias: Look for long entries at the 0.5 Fib ($140.25) or the open-cluster zone ($147–146), with targets toward the anchored VWAP at ~$166.
Alternate bias: A short on clear rejection from $153.4, targeting the opens as support.
Risk management: Keep stops tight (SL below $137.5 or above $154.3) to maximize R:R on your favored setups.
Volume & Price Action: Confirm entries with an uptick in volume or bullish price structure (for longs) or swift failure patterns (for shorts).
Now it’s a waiting game! Let price revisit these zones, watch for confirmation signals, and then scale into your chosen side. Good luck! Don't chase, let the charts come to you!
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Supportandresistancezones
ETH is fighting in a strong resistance zone!Hello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on ETH. When we enter the one-day interval, we can see how the ETH price came out on top from a strong downward trend.
Here we can see how the current bounce brought the movement closer to a very strong resistance zone from $ 2,090 to $ 2,310, in which we can currently observe a fight for further upward movement. Only when the price comes out on top, it can go towards resistance at $ 2,740, and then move towards strong resistance at $ 3,070.
Looking the other way, we can see that when the trend reverses, we first have support at $ 1,837, then a very strong support zone from $ 1,610 to $ 1,404 is visible, however, if this zone is broken, we can see a quick decline to the support area at $ 1,071.
On the RSI indicator we can see how strong the ETH price movement is visible intensively on the indicator and here we can see how we are approaching the upper limit, which could potentially slow down the movement or give a temporary relief.
USD/CAD could decrease to C$1.35The US dollar has weakened recently against other major currencies including the euro, pound and yen. While it may not have grabbed the headlines, there’s another currency we can add to that list: the Canadian dollar.
The Canadian dollar – which was trading at around C$1.45 per US dollar at the end of January – may continue to strengthen against its southerly neighbour in the near term, potentially reaching C$1.35 per US dollar. Let’s examine why.
The area between C$1.38 and C$1.39 has previously served as a resistance zone for USD/CAD, marking significant tops in 2022, 2023 and 2024. Each time, this area ended the dollar’s gains and led to a renewed period of Canadian dollar strength. The pattern changed in October 2024, when – after multiple failed attempts to break through resistance – USD/CAD finally pushed to a new high of C$1.45. Now, as USD/CAD declines from that peak, the old resistance area of C$1.38 to C$1.39 is providing support.
If USD/CAD falls below support at C$1.38, it could decline towards C$1.347, partly because there are no meaningful levels of support to slow such a move. A falling bear flag pattern also seems to be forming, suggesting that a breakdown may be imminent, potentially supporting a drop to around C$1.35. Meanwhile, the completion of the diamond reversal top that formed from December 2024 to March 2025 could imply a return to the pattern’s origin near C$1.35.
The USD/CAD chart pattern also shows a high degree of symmetry between the left and right sides. In other words, the decline on the right side is occurring at a similar pace to the earlier rise on the left. Completing this symmetrical pattern might suggest a return to the starting point around C$1.35.
Of course, if support at C$1.38 holds and the Canadian dollar does not strengthen further, a swift rise for the US dollar back towards C$1.41 cannot be ruled out.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
Strengthen your trading strategy? How about a statistical entryFor those watching or trading the USD/JPY pair: the spread of 0.007–0.0072 on the Yen futures is still in play
We're 30 days out from expiry, and there are no clear reasons to brake a rally in the futures contract (which would mean a drop in USD/JPY).
Now, a quick word on Expected Range (ER) and its boundaries.
As we’ve seen, price didn’t quite reach the 2 ER level before bouncing back up. Quick note here — price doesn’t owe us anything. It doesn’t have to hit any statistically calculated levels just because we’re watching them.
But if it *had* reached that 2 ER boundary, it would’ve been a killer entry setup. Why? Because as a reminder, 2 ER marks about a 95% probability that price won’t break through — meaning a strong chance of a bounce.
P/S
For more detailed insights, don’t forget to check out our website and leverage the extensive original analysis from our team to enhance your trading performance! 💪💼
Hidden Bullish Divergence will play?as mentioned during market
timings, 36.50 was important to
sustain. It could not and hit the
Lower Lock at 36.03
Next Support is around 34.50 - 34.62
Now it is Important to Sustain 36.50 - 36.70
on Weekly basis.
Monthly Support is around 35.
One +ve sign: Hidden bullish divergence has
also appeared.
USDJPY Technical Outlook: SMC and Wyckoff Analysis 5 May 2025As of May 5, 2025, the USDJPY pair is trading around ¥144.30, reflecting a 0.40% decrease from the previous session. This movement follows the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates while revising growth forecasts downward, leading to a depreciation of the yen.
Technical Analysis:
Support and Resistance Levels: The pair is approaching a significant support zone near ¥143.00. A break below this level could expose the next support at ¥141.00, while resistance is observed around ¥148.00.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is nearing oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
Smart Money Concepts:
Order Blocks: A bullish order block is identified between ¥142.50 and ¥143.00, indicating potential institutional buying interest.
Liquidity Pools: Liquidity above the recent highs near ¥148.00 may attract price action if bullish momentum resumes.
Wyckoff Method Perspective:
Accumulation Phase: The recent price action suggests a possible accumulation phase, with the pair trading within a range between ¥140.00 and ¥146.00.
Spring Test: A false breakout below ¥143.00 could serve as a spring, leading to potentially high buying volume.
Fundamental Factors:
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy: The BOJ's decision to keep rates unchanged, despite lowering growth forecasts, has contributed to yen weakness.
Federal Reserve Outlook: Market participants are closely watching the ISM Services PMI later today and the upcoming FOMC meeting for signals on US monetary policy, which could impact USDJPY dynamics.
Conclusion:
The USDJPY pair is at a critical juncture, with technical indicators pointing to potential support near ¥143.00. Traders should monitor price action around this level for signs of accumulation or further downside. Fundamental developments, particularly central bank policies, will play a crucial role in determining the pair's direction in the near term.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today May 5 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, May 5th, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Silver Lines: An Area where price action could happen and do work on a choppy day.
Netweb-a breakout stock to watchNetweb has recorded stellar quarterly results- double digit earnings and revenue growth YoY. But stock has not performed since market was unfavorable and it has stored pent up energy of strong earnings backing. Now stock has reached a resistance zone on daily chart that too with a humungous volume. Today its quarterly earnings were announced and yet again stock has delivered very good results. It's a good breakout stock to watch.
NAS100USD: Bearish Setup Builds as Price Retests Key Supply ZoneGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we continue to observe bearish institutional order flow, and as such, our objective is to align our trading opportunities with this directional bias.
Key Observations:
1. Bearish Break of Structure and Retracement:
Following a clear bearish break of structure, price has retraced into a mitigation block. This zone represents an area where institutional buying previously occurred. As price trades back into it, institutions often mitigate those earlier positions and reintroduce sell-side interest—offering us an opportunity to follow their lead.
2. Confluence at the Mitigation Block:
The mitigation block is further reinforced by the presence of a bearish order block, adding strength to the resistance zone. This alignment suggests the area may serve as a high-probability reversal point for bearish continuation.
Liquidity Sweep Scenario:
There remains a possibility that price may take out nearby buy-side liquidity (buy stops) before continuing downward. If this occurs, we will wait for confirmation before entering short positions, maintaining alignment with the overall bearish narrative.
Trading Plan:
Upon confirmation of rejection at the mitigation zone, we will seek to engage in short setups targeting liquidity pools in discount pricing zones.
Remain patient, disciplined, and ensure each trade aligns with your strategy.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
EURCAD update and new view on EC
OANDA:EURCAD in first view (attached) we are have at end break of zone and also break of trend line, price is start pushing bearish.
Now RAISING WEDGE pattern is visible, looks like strong momentum is gathered and from here expecting one more fall.
SUP zone: 1.57100
RES zone: 1.54600, 1.54000
EURCHF new bearish push expecting
OANDA:EURCHF FALLING WEDGE we are have, in moment its be breaked, price is also be and on trend line with FW, i am expect price will continue pushing, but looks like we will have break of trend line and bounce on sup zone 0.93950
SUP zone: 0.94000
RES zone: 0.92450, 0.92000
EURUSD update and new bearish view
FX:EURUSD one more view on EU, we can see long zone and break of same how currently looks, two bounce on sup zone 1.13500, price now pushing till crucial zone 1.12700, if we see break here we will have confirm.
Currently how everything looks, its expected to see stronger fall here.
SUP zone: 1.14000
RES zone: 1.11700, 1.11200
EURNZD expected higher fall for new week
OANDA:EURNZD strong bearish candle on 9.April, bearish momentum, price is break and crucial zone there, in last periods we are have three times bounce on now strong zone.
For new week here stilll expecting to see bearishnes
SUP zone: 1.91550
RES zone: 1.87600, 1.86000
EUR/USD - Channel Breakout (02.05.2025) FX:EURUSD The EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.1387
2nd Resistance – 1.1430
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TVC:DXY
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Thank you.
Bearish Divergence appeared.Bearish divergence appeared on Daily as well as
Weekly TF.
Strong resistance is there around 127 - 129.
Once this level is Crossed, we have open ways
towards 145 - 147
On the flip side, we have a good support around
120-122. However, breaking 116 this time will bring
more selling pressure towards 113 initially.