GBPUSD – Bullish Structure Holds, Waiting for a Clean RetestGBPUSD recently bounced strongly from the ascending trendline and hit resistance at 1.36300. The price is now slightly correcting, with a high probability of retesting the 1.35000 support zone – an area of FVG and technical confluence.
The bullish structure remains intact as long as price holds above this level. Positive UK Services PMI data further supports the medium-term uptrend.
Are you waiting for the pullback to jump in?
Technical Analysis
XAUUSD – Short-Term Decline, Long-Term Bullish AccumulationAfter a sharp drop of over 1,250 pips yesterday, gold reacted at the key demand zone around 3,300, where initial buying pressure has emerged. The chart still shows a valid short-term downtrend, but this area also aligns with the lower boundary of a long-term channel—previously a launch point for significant upward moves.
Currently, XAUUSD is consolidating below multiple unfilled Fair Value Gaps, awaiting a confirmed breakout toward the 3,361.500 region to potentially reverse the trend.
In terms of news, tensions in the Middle East escalated as the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, triggering strong volatility in gold. Upcoming key U.S. economic data—including quarterly GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE—will play a crucial role in determining whether gold has the momentum to break out or remains in consolidation.
For now, the short-term bias remains bearish, but buyers are quietly accumulating strength for a potential long-term rally.
Nasdaq 100 Near Breakout – Eyes on 22,200 ResistanceThe Nasdaq 100 is approaching a critical technical level at 22,200. This resistance marks the upper boundary of recent consolidation and aligns with prior rejection zones. A clean break above this threshold could trigger a sharp upside move, possibly propelling the index into uncharted territory.
Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the dollar’s renewed weakness is supporting risk appetite, particularly in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Strong earnings from key sectors are reinforcing bullish sentiment, with investors increasingly pricing in a favorable macro backdrop.
Technically, momentum is building. Price action has formed a series of higher lows, and buying pressure is intensifying near resistance. A breakout above 22,200 could ignite a strong rally, driven by stop orders and fresh bullish entries.
That said, traders should remain cautious. While the breakout setup is promising, a retracement toward support zones—such as 21,500 or the 20-day moving average—remains possible, especially if upcoming inflation or macro data disappoints.
For now, the 22,200 level remains the key to watch. A daily close above this level would shift the bias clearly higher, confirming breakout strength and potentially accelerating gains toward 22,800 or beyond.
SMCI: When a chart says it’s time to reconnect with the AI hypeOn the daily chart, Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is showing a clean bullish setup. Price broke out of a descending trendline (green dashed), confirmed it with a retest, and is now consolidating above the breakout zone. The golden cross — where the MA50 crossed above the MA200 — confirms a long-term trend reversal.
Volume profile indicates strong accumulation near $41–43. The 0.5 Fibonacci level at $41.84 acted as support. Above the current range, there’s low volume resistance up to $63.57 (0.786), followed by $66.44 and a final extension target at $79.82 (1.272).
Fundamentals: SMCI is a leading server hardware manufacturer. Demand for their systems has soared with the explosion of AI infrastructure. The company maintains solid financials, with rising quarterly revenue and growing presence in the cloud sector. Institutional investors have been actively increasing their positions since late 2023 — a sign of strong long-term conviction.
Tactical plan:
— Entry: market $42–43
— Target 1: $55.91
— Target 2: $63.57
When technicals scream textbook breakout and fundamentals bring AI momentum to the table — it might just be one of the best late entries in the AI wave this summer.
Silver Outperforms Gold, Eyes $36Silver climbed back toward $36, bouncing from over two-week lows on falling Treasury yields and a softer dollar. While the Israel-Iran ceasefire remains shaky, Fed Chair Powell said “many paths are possible,” hinting at a flexible rate stance depending on job market data.
Strong industrial demand and tight supply continue to support silver, which is up nearly 9% in June, far outpacing gold’s modest gains.
Resistance is seen at 37.50, while support holds at 35.40.
Gold Rebounds on Ceasefire FragilityGold edged back up to around $3,330, recovering from a two-week low. While the Israel-Iran ceasefire brought temporary calm, a US intelligence report showed that Iran’s nuclear progress was only briefly disrupted, raising concerns about renewed tensions.
Fed Chair Powell adopted a cautious stance, saying rates would likely stay unchanged for now, though a July cut remains possible. Diverging views among Fed members on inflation and job data may limit gold’s upside in the near term.
Resistance is seen at $3,355, while support holds at $3,285.
EUR/USD Nears 1.1620 Before Powell’s TestimonyEUR/USD edged up to 1.1615 in early European trading on Wednesday, supported by improved risk sentiment after Israel and Iran signaled an end to their air conflict. The truce, backed by pressure from President Trump, increased appetite for risk assets, favoring the euro over the dollar.
All eyes are now on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who reiterated on Tuesday that monetary policy will remain data-driven. However, comments from Kansas City Fed President Schmid hinted at caution due to tariff-driven inflation. While markets expect a rate cut in September, July odds have edged slightly higher.
Resistance is at 1.1630, while support is at 1.1530.
Risk Sentiment Improves, GBP/USD Nears 1.3650GBP/USD extended its rally for a third session, trading around 1.3620 and holding close to Tuesday’s high of 1.3648, its strongest level since February 2022. The pair continues to benefit from improved risk appetite as Middle East tensions ease following Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
Despite the initial increase, investors remain cautious as doubts persist over the ceasefire’s durability and potential nuclear negotiations with Iran. Focus is also on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, which continues to raise geopolitical concerns.
Meanwhile, Powell, in his congressional testimony, signaled that rate cuts are unlikely before Q4. He acknowledged that new tariffs could push inflation higher from June but maintained that the Fed is prepared to ease policy once conditions allow.
Resistance is seen at 1.3655, while support holds at 1.3540.
Ceasefire Supports Yen’s StrengthThe Japanese Yen stayed strong near a one-week high around 145.5 on Wednesday, supported by risk-off sentiment and dovish commentary from the Bank of Japan. Several BOJ members favored steady rates with concerns over U.S. tariffs and their impact on Japan’s economy.
May’s Services PPI remained above 3% yearly, strengthening speculation that the BOJ could still raise rates later this year. Meanwhile, lingering geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of Fed rate cuts continued to pressure the US Dollar.
The key resistance is at $146.20, and the major support is at $144.85.
EURUSD Approaching Liquidity Shelf — Watch for Reaction at 1.164EURUSD remains firmly bullish on all major timeframes, respecting the internal structure of an ascending channel.
• Daily: Price continues to respect both the red trendline and broader purple bullish channel. Buyers are defending the mid-line and pushing toward the upper boundary.
• 4H: Clear higher highs and higher lows. Price recently revisited and bounced off a 4H demand zone (1.14750–1.15000), and is now testing the liquidity zone at 1.16400.
• 1H: Microstructure shows consolidation and possible absorption of liquidity just beneath the 1.16415 high. A clean break and retest of this level may confirm continuation.
Key Levels:
• Resistance: 1.16415 (previous high and liquidity trap)
• Support: 1.14900 (4H demand zone)
• Daily trendline holding as dynamic support
Trade Plan:
• Longs: Await a break and retest of 1.16415 or a retracement to 1.15600 for a more discounted entry.
• Shorts: Not favored unless a strong bearish engulfing forms below 1.1600 with structure shift on the 1H.
EURCHF: Bearish Continuation After Breakout 🇪🇺🇨🇭
EURCHF violated a significant horizontal support.
Retesting that, a bearish flag pattern was formed.
Its support violation provides a strong intraday confirmation.
The pair may drop lower at least to 0.9328
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bullish Move From Support
WTI Crude Oil may continue rising from an underlined blue support cluster.
As a confirmation, I see a quick liquidity grab below that and a consequent
bullish imbalance candle on an hourly time frame.
I expect a rise to 66.24
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WTI CRUDE OIL USD WEEKLY ANALYSIS Price is reacting from a weekly FVG just below the 50% of a larger range, with some bullish momentum possibly fueled by recent geopolitical tensions.
But price is still within a bearish range acting as resistance, so upside may remain limited unless structure shifts.
A daily bullish OB below the 50% of that range could offer a solid pullback entry if price retraces which is aligning with the broader narrative and upside liquidity. Im having a neutral view of this and leveraging on both sides.
What are your thoughts?
Uber (UBER, 1W) Tightening Structure Ready for BreakoutOn the weekly chart, UBER has formed a strong ascending wedge / tightening channel, showing clear higher lows and repeated rejections near upper resistance. The price is now approaching the apex of the pattern, with a possible breakout setup above $82.42.
If confirmed, the projected measured move (H = $27.67) aligns with Fibonacci extension targets at:
– $89.86 (1.272)
– $93.74 (1.414)
– $99.32 (1.618)
Technical structure:
– Price held support twice, confirming bullish intent
– Structure tightening — breakout likely on sustained volume
– Bullish divergence forming on the weekly stochastic oscillator
– A breakout above $82.42 activates the next impulse wave
– Volume is stable, with no signs of heavy distribution
Fundamentals:
Uber has reached a major financial milestone: consistent profitability and positive EBITDA growth. The company continues to expand across mobility and delivery, with a focus on cost efficiency, platform monetization, and retention. Increased user activity and growing institutional interest support a bullish mid-term thesis. Uber is increasingly seen as a core holding in next-gen tech and services portfolios.
The technical structure is approaching resolution. A confirmed breakout above $82.42 opens the door for a move to $89.86 → $93.74 → $99.32. With bullish structure and improving fundamentals, Uber is positioned for the next leg higher. This is a setup worth watching.
EUR/USD Buy EUR/USD pull-back long
Buy-limit at 1.1460
Stop-loss at 1.1395
Take-profit 1 at 1.1560 – when this first target is reached, move the stop to breakeven
Take-profit 2 at 1.1630
Condition: keep the order active only while the daily candle continues to close at or above 1.1445.
Expiry: if the order hasn’t been filled after five full trading days, cancel it and reassess.
BTCUSDT – Rebound from trendline, targeting 115,300On the daily chart, BTCUSDT has bounced from a confluence support zone around 105,200, where the rising trendline meets the FVG, confirming that the bullish structure remains intact. The current price pattern suggests a continuation of the uptrend, with a short-term target at the 115,300 resistance zone — a level that has previously rejected price multiple times.
If this level is broken, momentum could extend toward the 120,000 area in the medium term. As long as the price holds above the trendline, the bullish outlook remains valid.
On the news front, market sentiment is improving as Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. show signs of renewed inflows, coupled with growing expectations that the Fed might pause rate hikes due to recent signs of economic weakness.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(25/06/2025)Bank Nifty is expected to open slightly gap up near the 56,450 level. If the index sustains above 56,450, we may see a bullish continuation toward 56,550 and above. A move above the 56,550–56,600 zone can trigger further upside momentum with targets at 56,850, 56,950, and potentially 57,000+.
However, if Bank Nifty fails to hold above 56,450 and starts trading below 56,400, a short opportunity could arise. In that case, downside targets would be 56,250, 56,150, and 56,050. The 56,050 level will act as strong support for today's session, and only a break below this may invite a deeper correction.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 25, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 25, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
💱 Dollar Slides on Middle East Ceasefire Optimism
A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran lifted risk sentiment across global markets. The U.S. dollar weakened, while the euro and British pound hovered near multi‑year highs
📈 Equities Near Record Highs
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed toward all-time highs on June 25, supported by the Middle East truce and retreating energy prices. The S&P 500 rallied ~1.1%, with tech and discretionary sectors leading the charge
🛢 Oil & Treasuries Dip, Yield Cuts Anticipated
Oil plunged ~6% to ~$65/bbl as conflict fears eased. Softer prices plus weak consumer confidence spurred expectations of up to 60 bps in Fed rate cuts by December; Treasury yields pulled back accordingly
📉 Consumer Confidence Falls Again
The Conference Board’s index dropped to 93—the lowest level since May 2020—as concerns over tariffs and job availability weighed on households
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, June 25:
(No major U.S. economic data scheduled)
Markets remain focused on geopolitical dynamics, Fed commentary, and next week’s PCE inflation release.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #Fed #inflation #technicalanalysis
Boeing (BA, 1W) Falling Wedge + H-Projection TargetOn the weekly chart, Boeing has formed a classic falling wedge — a bullish reversal pattern that typically signals the end of a correction phase. After a sharp decline from $267.97 to $138, price action began to compress within a wedge, forming lower highs and higher lows on declining volume — a textbook setup for a breakout.
The structure remains active: a confirmed breakout above the upper wedge boundary, with a retest near $181.60 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement), would validate the pattern and trigger the next upward phase.
The projected move (H) equals the height of the previous impulse — $130.02. Adding this to the base of the wedge (~$138) yields a technical target of $268.00, aligning with the previous high and completing the structural recovery.
Technical summary:
– Multiple confirmations of wedge support
– Volume declining into the apex (bullish)
– Entry zone: breakout + retest at $181.60
– Mid-level resistance: $198.09 (0.5 Fibo)
– Final target: $267.97–$268.00 (H-projection complete)
Fundamentals:
Despite operational setbacks, Boeing remains structurally positioned for recovery as demand for commercial aircraft rebounds. Additional support could come from improving supply chains, increased defense contracts, and a more dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve heading into 2025.
A breakout above $181.60 and sustained momentum would confirm the falling wedge pattern and activate the H-measured move toward $268. This is a structurally and fundamentally supported mid-term recovery setup
Long OKTA To 128.50 For Nearly 30% PP. 1:2 RRR.Good Afternoon Trading Fam,
We are nailing it with our stock trades since implementing my new liquidity indicator. I've got another buy signal given here on OKTA with a 1:2 rrr ratio and potential profit of nearly 30%.
On the technical side, you can see that we are just above a large liquidity block where buyers have stepped in en masse in the past. Additionally, we have nice support being offered by our trendline. And finally, we have a large gap which often acts as a magnet and will most likely be filled sooner rather than later. The MACD has just crossed up, and our RSI is doing the same near oversold territory. All of these indications make this an easy choice for me, with an excellent opportunity to profit yet again.
More details on this trade and all of the others can be seen on my public portfolio, as always.
Best,
Stew
GBP/AUD Triple-Top Resistance Test – Watch for Reversal or BreakThe GBP/AUD pair is currently testing a strong horizontal resistance zone near 2.1000, which has been rejected multiple times in the past. The chart clearly highlights a triple-top formation (marked by red arrows), signaling repeated failures to break above this supply area. Meanwhile, the price action has been respecting an upward trendline support, forming a broad ascending channel or rising wedge-like structure.
This setup is now at a critical juncture — with the potential for either a strong bullish breakout or a bearish reversal.
📉 Bearish Rejection Scenario
If the resistance holds once again, we may see a pullback toward the rising support line around 2.0700. This would maintain the overall sideways-to-bullish bias within the structure. A firm rejection pattern (e.g., bearish engulfing or long upper wick) near 2.1000 could provide confirmation for short entries targeting that support.
📈 Bullish Breakout Scenario
On the other hand, a decisive breakout above 2.1000 — especially with strong volume and candle close — could trigger a breakout rally. If confirmed, the next leg up may drive GBP/AUD toward 2.1250–2.1300, based on the previous swing expansion zones.
🧭 Strategic Outlook
Sell near resistance: Target 2.0750–2.0700 with SL above 2.1020.
Buy on breakout: Enter above 2.1010–2.1025 with targets near 2.1250.
Confirmation required: Wait for candle confirmation (break or rejection) before acting.
This setup offers a clear risk-managed opportunity in either direction, ideal for breakout traders or reversal players.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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EUR/CHF Channel Breakdown – Bearish MomentumThe EUR/CHF pair has broken down from a well-defined ascending parallel channel, indicating a shift in market structure and a possible continuation to the downside. The price had been consistently respecting the resistance zone near 0.9435–0.9440 (marked in red) and the support zone near 0.9375–0.9380 (marked in green), forming an upward-sloping consolidation channel.
After multiple rejections at the upper resistance, the price decisively broke below the support line with strong bearish momentum, confirming a bearish breakout from the channel.
🔻 Breakdown Implication
The height of the channel—measured from the support to the resistance—has been used to project the next potential downside target. The projected breakdown target is marked near 0.9309, which aligns with historical price reaction zones and provides a clean structure-based price objective.
This suggests the bearish move could extend further in the coming sessions unless the price quickly recovers and climbs back above the broken support, which would invalidate the breakdown structure.
🧠 Trading Outlook
Bias: Bearish after confirmed breakdown from channel
Entry (if not in already): Consider selling on retest of broken support (~0.9375)
Target: 0.9309 (based on channel height)
Stop Loss: Above 0.9390–0.9400 (above breakdown point)
This setup is ideal for momentum traders looking to capitalize on trend continuation after a failed bullish structure.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Airbnb: Proof that even stocks love to traveThe analysis of Airbnb (ABNB) stock reveals an intriguing setup following the breakout and retest of a key resistance level, which previously acted as a trendline on the daily chart. After successfully breaking above this line and confirming it with a retest, the price is now showing potential for further upside — aligning with a bullish scenario that targets the $164 area, which also coincides with the 1.0 Fibonacci level (164.12).
The current structure suggests the beginning of an upward movement after a period of consolidation, with both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (MA50 and MA200) positioned to support further growth, reinforcing the overall bullish outlook.
Notably, trading volume has increased in line with the breakout and continued price movement, adding confidence to the scenario playing out toward the higher targets. Key Fibonacci resistance levels to watch next include 0.786 (150.37) and 1.272 (181.61), with a long-term extension target at 1.618 (203.85).