USD interest rate growth could be limited by previous top.At the end of last September I called for the drop in the 10-year US T-notes with quite aggressive target (see related idea).
In this and the next update I came to the thought that the drop could be over earlier as rates are reaching important resistance level.
Despite the aggressive tone on the rate rise in US, I think the upside is limited based on this chart.
Wave 5 of (C) already has reached the target zone and approaches the former top at the 3.04% where the wave 5 = 0.786 of waves 1-3.
It is quite possible that when we would reach that area above 3 pct something in the economy could cry out - stop it!
Let's see!
Treasuries
10 year treasury yield and interest rates Vs. S&P500It is plain as day that rising interest rates and rising 10yr treasury yields do not bring stocks down. There is actually a POSITIVE correlation going on. So what am I missing? Why is everyone blaming these two for the correction?
The Bond Bears Paint in RED!The correction from the ATH was inevitable as the Dow broke well above it's long term growth channel. What we've seen in the past few days is hungry hungry bears beginning to feed when the 10 year T Note reaches the 2.85% yield mark with today being no different. What's important to recognize in this relationship is how the DOW bulls are attempting to hold on these downward movements. The 1100 point drop found support at both the 100 day MA and the 0.236. The next two days show a brief brake of this support as well as an attempt to break out of the long term channel again and find higher support at the 50 day EMA. This breaking out of the longterm channel and holding at the 50 day EMA seems to be overly bullish as we had another 1000+ point drop with the market now closing below the 0.236 fibonacci marker. Currently sitting in a tricky spot within both the long term uptrend and short term down trends channels, as well as beneath the 50 day EMA support, with current volatility makes predicting the market a dangerous move, however it seems reasonable to expect that Bonds and Equities will continue their jazzy swing dance range trading within downward channel until a support is found in the short term. The 0.236 and the 100 day MA has been a decent point of resistance up until late today so it is not out of the question a consolidation occurs here with an attempt to breakout of the downward channel, however the 200 day MA and the .382 are also certainly within reason. Consolidation at either of these two areas does not call for a market reversal in the short term, as again they both reside within the current long term uptrend channel, however a break below the 200 day ma could be a much stronger signal towards the idea that this is a reversal of the long term trend, only time will tell.
*This is by no means financial advice and I'm quite new to this, so take the analysis with a grain of salt and use it as a gauge against your ideas, not as a sound prediction from an expert. Furthermore, critiques are also more than welcome.*
TBF heading higher: on the verge of major breakout!AMEX:TBF is poised for a major breakout of its long-term downtrend channel short term bullish wedge. As interest rates continue to rise, TBF is poised to benefit. Both the fundamentals and the chart are beginning to align. I will be taking a position in TBF sometime this week.
5s10s Yiled Curve Flattener.. ak Short-term gain, long term painThe difference between the US 10 and 5 year yield is down to just 20bps. The market is reflecting short-term growth and short-term Fed tightening, but sees inflation firmly anchored at 2% for the long-term. The fact that inflation is at 2% also keeps equity valuations up, but for how long?
As the curve flattens to 2006 levels, are we 12-18 months away from an inversion and possible recession?
FOMC Minutes Reveal Inflation Still a ConcernThe FOMC minutes are being released as I write this, but weak inflation seems to one of their key concerns. Expect the yield curve to continue to flatten as this gets priced into the long end. The spread between the US 30 year and Us 2 year has been careening off a cliff lately and given this news, it is safe to expect this trend to continue. The Kovach Chande indicator is solidly bearish, confirming this, and the lower bound of the Kovach Reversals indicator is continuously being pushed.
If you want access to the Kovach Momentum Indicators, Reversals Indicator, or Crypto Specific Indicators, please sign up at quantguy.net!
Yield Curve Below 1%, Racing to the BottomThe yield curve (spread between the 30 year and 2 year spread) just broke below 1%. All indicators suggest this trend to continue. It has been encroaching the lower Bollinger Band of the Kovach Reversals Indicator, with no retracement in sight. A retracement will be confirmed by a green triangle, if an when it happens. The Federal reserve should be very mindful of this in their December meeting.
If you're interested in the Kovach Reversals Indicator and more, sign up for access at quantguy.net!
Yield Curve Continues To FlattenThe yield curve struggles to come up for air as it hurdles toward zero. The slope of the trend is clearly decreasing, indicating that the flattening is accelerating. We've tested the lower bound of the Bollinger Band without a relief rally which is a very bearish sign. Also the Kovach Chande indicator is bearish and appears to be increasingly more so.
If you find this technical analysis useful, check out my indicators at quantguy.net!
Yield Curve Continues to FallAs investors price in lower inflation and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike, the yield curve (between the 30 year bond and the two year note) is continuously making new lows. Typically, the flattening or steepening of the yield curve is led by one end, but in this case, both appear to be contributing equally. This presents a problem for the Fed as raising rates (or more hawkish rhetoric) could hurl the yield curve closer to negative territory.
We can see the spread has been hugging the lower bound of the Kovach Reversals Indicator for some time, which is an extremely bearish sign. Also, the slope of the spread has become increasingly more negative.
If you want access to the Kovach Reversals indicator and more, check out quantguy.net.
30 Year, 2 Year Spread Making New LowsThe spread between the 30 year US treasury bond and the 2 year bill has made new lows as the yield curve in the US continues to flatten. Anticipate a pullback at some point, but the curve will likely continue to flatten as investors price in a rate hike despite dovish comments from Bullard at the Fed.
This pullback will be confirmed by a green triangle on the Kovach Reversal Indicator. If you're interested in using this indicator, check out quantguy.net.
The Yield Curve Flattens and Altcoins RipAs the markets price in the next interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, we see the spread between the 30 year and 2 year US treasuries continue to flatten. It is probably not coincidence that peaks in the Altcoin Index match up with with relative bottoms (especially recently) in the treasury spread.
Also, although this is somewhat due to the Segwit2x drama this weekend, observe how the Altcoin Index has really skyrocketed over the past couple days. This may indicate some cryptocurrency adoption from 'smart money', though many establishment figureheads have publicly rebuked cryptos.
If you're interested in the Kovach Altcoin Index or the Crypto Spread Indicator, among other tools, please check out quantguy.net
US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) - Commitment of Traders - Futures Only - Percent of Open Interest - Legacy Format - Calculation of
10 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts with sum of 2 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts
T-Bond Futures Setup on Daily ChartsEntering into long position with Reward to Risk of 1.8 in US 30 years Treasury Bonds, fantastic high quality opportunity. I hope it will work out as expected!
US 30 Year Treasury Bill Long Trade on H4 ChartI am entering a long position into long term US treasuries from a support line clearly visible on H4 and daily charts. Although the long term perspective for the price of bonds is negative due to expected rate hikes later this year and next year, on the shorter time scale (few weeks) the Treasuries seems under-priced after the strong decline last few weeks and there are good chances of success with this trade. Risk/Reward at 1.09. Always above 1 at all my trades!
US 30-Year Treasury Bonds Long Trade on H1 ChartThe support zone at 152.05 is confirmed and well backed with strong buying activity. I am entering more aggressively at market with 1.40 Reward to Risk Ratio. If tomorrow US NFP data is negative it will additionally benefit this trade.
10-YEAR Treasury T-note is on the support.Look forward on CBOT:ZN1! and TNX index retrace in a short time.
What is going on?U.S. treasury bond yields are signalling deflation, whilst stock melt up indicating an inflationary economy. Does the bond market know something that stocks don't?
Gold OUTLOOK Long term Gold Chart I see a Potential Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern forming "waiting 4 right shoulder".
At moment long call option is active.
But this is what i'll be tracking as the week goes on.
So, let's see how geopolitics will react.
#Gold and Treasuries Rallied on Geopolitical tension
#Trump Tax
#North Korean Problem and French election
this is a general market view!
Happy trading!
Moon time for UST 10 YR yieldsAs you can see, yields are poised to break above the bull flag; a convincing break would target 3% as a minimum.
Time to buy some moon boots guys and ditch any $JNUG dreams.
LOOKING TO GO LONG T-BONDS Promising setup developing at TLT (treasury bond ETF) at the daily timeframe.
Looking to go long with momentum or at pullback to the trendline.
First tactical target 200SMA, main target 129-130 area (measured move + 50% level of Jul-Dec 2016 move). Setup invalidated with daily close below 120.
US 10-year treasury yield - Double top reversalA weekly close below 2.3% would open up downside towards 2.0% (target as per measured height method)
INTERMARKET | US05Y vs GC1!As real rates rise, the probability of gold having topped increases significantly
TBT PROSHARES ULTRASHORT 20 YEAR TREASURY TBT PROSHARES ULTRASHORT 20 YEAR TREASURY - look for short at 40.60 levels
