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Trendtrading

GBPCAD: Could we see price continue to the downside?Price on GBPCAD looks quite interesting at the moment, this latest moves continues the narrative of a downtrend. As it is following a downtrend, each touch has served as a catalyst for a directional move. The most recent interaction is particularly interesting, because it's hovering here for some time now, and this could be a clue that we can use. What may follow is subtle but telling: compression at trendline, low-volume candles suggesting exhaustion, all aligning for more potential release downward. My target would be toward 1.8100 where we have a clear support zone. Momentum has respected structure and if this move plays out, I don't think it will be a breakout, but a continuation of a narrative that’s already been happening. This is what makes the setup so compelling. It’s not new, it’s the a "story being told". Though a scenario for more upside is possible and can happen just as much. Still, I would take the side for more downside taken into account all above.
Short
by TrendDiva
23
CADJPY: Moving in a clear rising channelCADJPY is currently respecting a well-defined rising channel structure, with price reacting cleanly to both the upper and lower bounds of the channel. After a sharp correction, price has once again tapped the lower trendline support, a level that has triggered bullish reversals, and is now showing early bullish signs. This bounce suggests the market is preparing for another leg up, with 108.600 marked as a key target near the midline of the channel, which often acts as dynamic resistance in trending conditions.
Long
by TrendDiva
20
Corrective Dip or New Downtrend on the S&P 500 Futures?🟣 1. Impulses vs. Corrections – The Classical View When price trends, it doesn't move in a straight line. Instead, it alternates between directional movements called impulses and counter-directional pauses or retracements known as corrections. Most analysts define an impulse as a sharp, dominant move in the direction of the trend—typically accompanied by rising volume and momentum indicators. Corrections, on the other hand, tend to be slower, overlapping, and often occur with declining volume. Common methods to identify impulses vs. corrections include: Swing structure: Higher highs and higher lows suggest impulse; overlapping lows suggest correction. Fibonacci retracements: Corrections often retrace up to 61.8% of a prior impulse. Moving averages: Price above a rising MA is often viewed as impulse territory. Volume analysis and oscillators such as RSI or MACD are used to confirm price behavior. Despite the abundance of methods, the distinction between impulses and corrections often remains subjective. That’s where the Directional Movement Index (DMI) provides an objective lens—especially when paired with price action. 🟣 2. Rethinking Impulses with the DMI Indicator The Directional Movement Index (DMI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, offers a quantitative way to assess the strength and direction of price movement. It breaks down market activity into three components: +DMI (Positive Directional Movement Index): Measures the strength of upward movements. −DMI (Negative Directional Movement Index): Measures the strength of downward movements. ADX (Average Directional Index): Quantifies overall trend strength but is optional in this discussion. The key to applying DMI lies in the crossover between +DMI and -DMI: When +DMI > -DMI, upward price moves dominate—suggesting bullish impulses. When −DMI > +DMI, downward moves dominate—suggesting bearish impulses. Calculation is based on a comparison of successive highs and lows over a specific lookback period—commonly set to 14 or 20 periods. While EMAs track trend direction and momentum, DMI helps dissect who’s in control. This makes it a powerful filter when evaluating whether a breakdown or breakout is likely to become an impulsive trend—or just another correction in disguise. 🟣 3. Case Study – Two Breakdowns, Two Outcomes Let’s apply this logic to two recent moments on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) daily chart. 🔹 Feb 21, 2025 Breakdown Price broke sharply below the 20-period EMA. At first glance, this looked like a potential trend reversal. The DMI confirmed this suspicion: −DMI surged above +DMI, signaling downside impulses were in control. The market followed through with a clear downtrend, confirming the move was not just a pullback—it was a shift in market structure. 🔹 Aug 1, 2025 Breakdown A similar sharp break below the 20 EMA just occurred again. However, this time +DMI remains above −DMI, despite the bearish price action. This divergence tells a different story: the breakdown may not be impulsive in nature. Instead, it's likely a corrective dip within a broader uptrend, where buyers are still the dominant force. This is a textbook example of how a moving average crossover without DMI confirmation can mislead traders. By combining these tools, we’re able to make more informed decisions about whether price action is signaling a true shift—or just a pause. 🟣 4. CME Product Specs – ES vs. MES Traders can express directional views on the S&P 500 using two primary CME futures contracts: the E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) and the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES). Both track the same underlying index but differ in size, capital requirement, and tick value. ✅ E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) Symbol: ES Contract Size: $50 x S&P 500 Index Tick Size: 0.25 index points Tick Value: $12.50 Initial Margin: Approximately $21,000 (varies by broker and through time) Market Hours: Nearly 24/6 ✅ Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES) Symbol: MES Contract Size: $5 x S&P 500 Index Tick Size: 0.25 index points Tick Value: $1.25 Initial Margin: Approximately $2,100 (varies by broker and through time) The Micro contract provides access to the same market structure, liquidity, and price movement as the E-mini, but with a fraction of the exposure—making it ideal for smaller accounts or more precise position sizing. 🟣 5. Risk Management Matters Understanding whether a market move is impulsive or corrective isn’t just academic—it’s the difference between positioning with the dominant flow or fighting it. Traders often get trapped by sharp moves that appear trend-defining but are simply noise or temporary pullbacks. Using tools like DMI to confirm whether directional strength supports price action provides a layer of risk filtration. It prevents overreaction to every EMA crossover or sudden price drop. Stop-loss orders become vital in both impulsive and corrective conditions. In impulsive environments, stops help lock in profits while protecting from reversals. In corrective phases, they act as circuit breakers against breakouts that fail. Moreover, knowing the product you're trading is critical: A single ES contract controls ~$320,000 of notional value. An MES contract controls ~$32,000. This disparity means poor sizing on ES can magnify errors, while proper sizing on MES can offer flexibility to test, scale, and hedge with tighter capital control. Whether you're reacting to price or preparing for continuation, risk management is the only constant. It’s what turns analysis into disciplined execution. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
BTC Forecast For August & September. The Only Roadmap You Need !This is one is so obvious, its a no brainer , and would likely be very easy to trade as long as you follow this road map i have provided. The Value Area High at 110k price range is most important upcoming battle line between bull vs bear. If bulls fail to get a strong bounce from 110k and we close at least 2 daily candles below it. Then it would mean bears have full control and the implication of that is that since we would at that point be closing back inside an established Value Area range, formed between Nov 20th to Jul 25th, then it would mean the probability of price selling all the way down to re-test the VAL (value area low) at $91.6k would instantly become very very high. After re-testing $91.6k we'll watch and see what happens. It'll either hold after grabbing some liquidity below and stay in the Value Area Range until further notice Or we lose it and the sell off continues. Bear market will be in full swing if that happens and you can bet a ton of weak hands will start to exit due to max pain & cascading long liquidations. Fear index will be back in the red at that point as capitulation starts to set in. Alot of new alts and meme coins will be completely obliterated. Bullish Continuation Scenario If bulls get a strong bounce from 110k and don't close back inside the Value Area Range below, then we could continue up to a make a new ATH for a classic trend pullback continuation trade. Once we get back above 115.4k, the dream of a new ATH will become much more realistic. There is an UFA(Unfinished Auction) at 120.8k which is only visible to traders using the market profile or footprint chart. This make poor high and needs to be taking out at some point. For the Price target to the upside, we would be using the peak formation line of the ExoFade indicator.
by ExoProtocol
1
Aussie Shorts Looks Promising This is a pullback trend trade anticipating trend continuation. Entry is based on LVN (low volume node) for entry. Also looking on the footprint chart there is a high volume node with -ve delta that was traded at 0.64715. If the sellers return to defend that price then this pullback should give some strong rejection once we pierce the entry zone and send bulls packing. TP1 - First swing low TP2 - Value area low of the range, which also is in confluence with the ExoFade peak on the 1HR timeframe. ExoFade peaks always gets taken out in a strong trend, that's why i love using them as price targets for exits. ExoFade is free on Tradingview for those curious about it. Just search for it.
CME:6A1!Short
by ExoProtocol
1
S&P 500 Intraday & Swing Entries H1 entry is close to getting activated for intraday. If you want a swing trade then wait for H4 entry (you might be waiting a while obviously) Reason for entries - We have broken out of Balance since July 25th and currently in a trend phase until we establish a new value area, or return to the one we broke out from. So since Trend and Momentum is UP, then we should find Low Volume Areas to enter in the direction of the trend for a classic pullback entry trade.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by ExoProtocol
LT Following Classic Impulse-Correction Rhythm.This is a trend-following setup on LT (Larsen & Toubro) where we’ve observed a clear repeating pattern of Impulse → Correction → Impulse. The recent price action suggests that the latest correction has matured, and the structure now hints at a potential next impulse wave beginning. Here’s the thought process behind the setup: ✅ The stock has been trending upward in a clean impulse-correction rhythm. 🕒 We waited patiently for the correction phase to develop fully and mature. 🔄 A Break of Structure occurred, signaling potential trend continuation. 🔁 Retest on support zones further strengthens the bullish case. 🧭 Support zones are drawn from the Daily chart for precision, though this post is based on the Weekly timeframe for broader trend visibility. 🛡️ Stop-loss can be maintained near ₹3141, just below key support. 🎯 Target is based on a 1:2 Risk-to-Reward setup, aligning with disciplined trading strategy. Overall, this is a classic example of waiting for confirmation after correction before re-entering in the direction of the dominant trend. As always, risk management is key. Watch how price behaves around the recent structure and support zones for validation.
NSE:LTLong
by SpiderChart
PENGUUSDT Daily Chart Analysis | Powerful Uptrend in PlayPENGUUSDT Daily Chart Analysis | Powerful Uptrend in Play 🔍 Let’s dissect the current PENGU/USDT daily chart, highlighting the unmistakable bullish structure and mapping potential targets as this trend matures. ⏳ Daily Overview PENGUUSDT is riding a strong upward trend, with all three daily SMAs (7, 25, and 99) lined up in bullish sequence—clear confirmation of momentum. Recent rallies are also supported by textbook volume behavior: volume consistently surges during price climbs and tapers off during minor corrections, reflecting the classic signature of a robust uptrend. 🔺 Bullish Setup and Price Targets: The next major upside target sits at $0.0910, almost 85% above the current level. For bulls, a daily candle closing above $0.043305 with convincing volume should act as a confirmation for fresh highs—though, as it’s Saturday, even moderate volume could suffice for a valid breakout. 📊 Key Highlights: - All SMAs (7, 25, 99) confirming the uptrend on daily timeframe. - Volume spikes on upward moves, fades on corrections—classic bullish confirmation. - Historical trend velocity: Each time a new high (HH) is set, it’s preceded by around 5 days of advance; first leg was +83%, second +124%, the next (projected) is +160%, aligning with the $0.0910 target. - Corrections: After each rally, pullbacks have measured about 15% and 20%. Should the first target be reached, expect a correction up to 25%—a healthy reset for further continuation. 🚨 Conclusion: With all signals aligned—moving averages, volume dynamics, and historic price structure—the path remains bullish. A decisive close above $0.043305, especially with solid volume, could be the catalyst for the next major leg higher. As always, monitor for typical correction ranges post-breakout in line with the prior trend.
Long
by AtresCryptoAcademy
SILVER Analysis - Can buyers push toward 4,100$?TRADENATION:XAGUSD is trading within a clear ascending channel, with price action consistently respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. The recent bullish momentum indicates that buyers are in control, suggesting there's chances for potential continuation on the upside. The price has recently broken above a key resistance zone and now came back for a retest. If this level holds as support, it would reinforce the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of a move toward the 4,100 target, which aligns with the channel’s upper boundary. As long as the price remains above this support zone, the bullish outlook stays intact. However, a failure to hold above this level could invalidate the bullish scenario and increase the likelihood of a deeper pullback. Remember, always confirm your setups and use proper risk management. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAGUSDLong
by TrendDiva
27
ALPINE / USDT : looking bullish ALPINEUSDT Analysis: The price is currently retesting the downward trendline. This is a crucial point where the price may either bounce off or fail to hold the trendline, signaling the next major move. Bullish Scenario: Trendline Retest and Bounce: If the price holds above the trendline and shows bullish momentum, we could see a rise towards 1.099 (125.45% potential upside). Confirmation: Look for strong buying volume during the retest to confirm the bounce. Bearish Scenario: Trendline Breakdown: If the price fails to hold the trendline and breaks below it, this could trigger a downward move. Target: Watch for the next support levels to gauge the potential downside.
Long
by Crypto-by-PRIME
NAS100 Bigger Picture. Uptrend to be resumedLooking at the current structure through the lens of a trend trading approach, what we saw on NAS100 is more than a simple price bounce, it’s a trend continuation trading within a high-volatility environment. As price is approaching a key resistance level, how price is behaving around this dynamic trendline will be key. This recent retracement and rejection happening near what we can call a demand zone cluster, was confirmed by a beautiful bounce off the support range. And right now price is respecting the upper and lower bounds nicely. What happens next? Price is showing signs of bullish exhaustion, but the higher-timeframe structure supports a continuation. My projected target is towards the upper resistance line, that’s my 23,100 zone as shown.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by TrendDiva
35
EUR/USD – Buy Setup Analysis (1H Chart)EUR/USD – Buy Setup Analysis (1H Chart) 📈 **Trend**: Uptrend The pair is respecting the ascending trendline and is trading above both the EMA 7 and EMA 21, indicating bullish momentum. **🔹 Long Setup** * **Entry:** Around 1.1774 (current price) * **Stop-Loss (SL):** 1.1731 (below trendline & EMAs) * **Take-Profit (TP):** 1.1872 (based on recent swing high) **🔎 Technical Signals** * Price is forming higher highs and higher lows. * Strong volume surge on bullish candles. * EMA crossover (7 > 21) supports continuation. **Conclusion** As long as EUR/USD holds above the trendline and the EMAs, the bullish setup remains valid. A break below 1.1730 would invalidate this outlook.
Long
by Harry_Megat
BAKE / USDT : Breakout PotentialBAKE/USDT - Breakout Potential BAKE/USDT has recently broken above a key resistance zone and is attempting a trend reversal. With the trendline resistance already broken, we are expecting a bullish move towards the $0.124 target, which represents a potential gain of 116.5% from the current price. Bullish Scenario: Breakout above the resistance zone confirms the trend reversal, targeting $0.124 with a +116.5% upside. Pro Tip: Look for strong volume confirmation during the breakout. Set stop losses just below the breakout level for risk management.
Long
by Crypto-by-PRIME
DUSK / USDT : Trend reversal in progressDUSK/USDT - Trend Reversal in Progress DUSK/USDT has recently broken above a significant downtrend resistance line, signaling a potential trend reversal. With a successful breakout, we’re expecting a strong move towards the $0.0660 target, representing an 80% potential upside from the current price. Bullish Scenario: Break above the downtrend resistance confirmed, setting the stage for a significant move toward $0.0660. A sustained uptrend could lead to further gains in the medium term. Pro Tip: Watch for confirmation with increased volume during the breakout. Manage risk by setting stop losses below the breakout level.
Long
by Crypto-by-PRIME