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GBP/USD – the pair for the global economy?Two main fundamental factors depressed the GBPUSD for the past couple of years—Brexit, and now recently, the Coronavirus. The trade is relatively simple – once there is a vaccine for the Coronavirus, alongside certainty on Brexit talks, a good case can be made for the pair to reach its Pre Brexit/Pre Coronavirus levels around 1.45 Pound needs to meet two catalysts to hit 1.45 Let’s go over the technical first. A Fibonacci drawn from 1.34 to 1.15, from the 2019 high to the 2020 low, can see the level of 1.45, hitting perfectly with the 161.8% retracement level, which was the level before the Brexit referendum results were announced in 2016. Alongside predicted further weakness in the US dollar, as vaccine hopes rise, the pound may rally on relatively less stimulus to its US counterpart. We can also see some consolidation zones and congestion around 1.32 and 1.38, where bulls and bears fight it for a higher or lower move. However, movements to the upsides past these zones paired with positive fundamental news may see price levels freely hit strong Fib levels. A robust full recovery, with pre-Coronavirus level economic activity alongside a positive post Brexit environment, and we can see levels hit 1.50 – 1.55. Brexit – time is running out, risky for the Pound It has almost been five years since the Brexit referendum took place—a quick refresher on why Brexit occurred. There were talks amongst the public that they were getting the short end of the stick regarding the European Union and that the majority of the citizens in the UK wanted to leave. The Prime Minister at the time, David Cameron, disagreed with the notion that the UK public wanted to leave. Therefore, he initiated a referendum to show that the UK did not want to leave the European Union. It turns out he was wrong, and they did want to leave. David Cameron retired soon after. Five years later, and we’re edging closer to a deal. Brussels and the UK have started in-depth negotiations again after the Coronavirus ravaged the world. A “deadline” has been set for 31st December, where Britain will “leave” the EU regardless of whether a deal has been met. However, “deadline” is in quotations as both have agreed to extend deadlines that have passed many times before. An EU official has stated that “its getting terribly late and may be too late already” and that “they haven’t quite reached where they had hoped to be.” If a “no deal” Brexit occurs on 31st December, shock waves will be sent not only in the financial markets but also supply chains all across Europe and the UK. There is currently free trade and free transport out of the UK and into Europe and vice versa. However, a no-deal Brexit would mean that on the 31st December, the EU will treat the UK like any other country. A no-deal Brexit should see the pound drop to a similar magnitude of that in 2016. However, if the optimistic scenario occurs and a vaccine comes alongside positive Brexit negotiations, we should see the pound rally against the US Dollar.
by BlackBull_Markets
$PLTR Palantir Displays Importance To The Public. 20% Spike ProjNov. 03, 2020 2:03 PM ET Palantir software considered for U.K. COVID Contact Tracing pProgram According to Financial Times sources, the U.K. government has talked with Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) about using its Foundry software to manage track and trace data related to the coronavirus pandemic. seekingalpha.com Previous reports have shown that the United States Government has also chose Palantir to track COVID-19 Vaccines... The use for Palantir's multiple software programs continues to show just how important this company is the Western World.... both Military and Industrial.
PLong
by AlexCutler247
1
Are the markets losing faith on FTSE?The situation looks very dismal for FTSE100 as since June's High, the index has been trading within a Channel Down that has already lost almost 50% of the post March gains. Additionally, the MACD on the 1W chart just made a Bearish Cross. The whole sequence from start (Death Cross) until now, loos very similar to the 2008/2009 credit crunch. Have the markets lost all faith on the UK100 in order to push it to the 1.236 Fib as in 2009? ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> TradingView --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by TradingShot
2
Fractal failurePrice failed to complete a fractal on 2 weekly chart and is moving away from it. Things started to go wrong in July last year...something to do with Brexit and this "wrong bias" keeps going... We see accumulation above the failed fractal and price is likely to push higher making higher high. THIS IS NO TRADE SETUP BUT GENERAL OUTLOOK TO IDENTIFY LONG TERM BIAS. as many cant make sense of whats going on with this messy pair. Top Absolute Correlation 1 WEEK 1 EURGBP - GBPCHF -93.6% 2 EURGBP - EURCAD 90.3% 3 EURGBP - GBPSEK -88.5% 4 EURGBP - EURSGD 86.0% 5 EURGBP - XAUGBP 84.9% 6 EURGBP - CADCHF -83.9% 7 EURGBP - EURMXN 83.8% 8 EURGBP - CHFSGD 83.6% 9 EURGBP - NOKSEK -83.5% 10 EURGBP - USDRUB 82.4%
Long
by ICFX
RidetheMacro| GBPRUB Russia on Track Again!A "no-deal" Brexit could be three times more costly to Britain's economy in the long term than the coronavirus outbreak, a new study published Tuesday warned.the political and economic effects of the pandemic were likely to mitigate or hide that of failing to secure a trade agreement with the EU. 📌 But in the short term, the lack of a new formal trading relationship with Brussels would be bad news for economic recovery and larger than the health crisis in the long term.The think-tank, which collaborated with the London School of Economics, said Brexit would hit growth in the coming years more than if the UK had opted to remain in the bloc. 📍 "The claim that the economic impacts of Covid-19 dwarf those of Brexit is almost certainly correct in the short term," its authors wrote. "Not even the most pessimistic scenarios suggest that a no-deal Brexit would lead to a fall in output comparable to that seen in the second quarter of 2020. 📍 "However -- assuming a reasonably strong recovery, and that government policies succeed in avoiding persistent mass unemployment -- in the long run, Brexit is likely to be more significant. 🔑 the UK’s recovery from the Covid-19 lockdown was losing momentum even before the announcement of new restrictions to control the spread of the virus, the latest snapshot of the economy has found. 📍 The closely watched monthly estimates from Cips/Markit found the level of activity at its lowest since June, the outlook for business at its weakest since May and jobs being shed at a rapid rate. The Cips/Markit report flash estimate of the service and manufacturing sectors dipped from 59.1 in August to 55.7 in September. but the survey was conducted before the introduction of fresh curbs across the UK this week. The marked dip in the PMI prompted speculation among City analysts that the UK could be heading for a tough end to 2020. 📍 The study estimated that the negative impact on gross domestic product would be 5.7 percent over the next 15 years compared with the current level, while GDP was forecast to take a 2.1-percent hit from Covid-19. The projections come despite a lack of clarity about the overall repercussions from the pandemic, and as a second wave of infections hits Europe. 📌 For RUB 🔑 The Salary growth numbers for July (this data comes with additional lag) significantly outperformed expectations, posting a 2.3% YoY jump in real terms after a 0.6% YoY increase in June. Though this data is more relevant to the larger businesses and state sector, and the situation in the SME sector could be different, other sources of income were likely supportive as well: the budget fulfillment data for 8M20 point at continued acceleration of spending on pensions and social security. 🔑 the earlier estimates for retail trade for April-July have been improved by 0.6-0.7ppt YoY, including from -2.6% YoY to -1.9% YoY in July, suggesting that the drop in smaller businesses was not as deep as expected. Until the Next Time.🙏 Ridethemacro
Short
by Ridethemacro
Expect Pound to Fall based on Pressure from COVID & DXY After the Tuesday trading session, GU clearly rejected the 1.3000 area. It is a psychological level for the pair and has been trading in this region for several weeks. The UK has been slammed into lockdown and with EU talks faltering we believe the pair has the potential to fall significantly. Based on the previous uptrend hitting the upper Bollinger band, we expect a downtrend to continue to form. This is an opinion, not financial advice.
Short
by Granborough-Capital