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USDNOK

EURUSD Getting Ready For A Bounce Higher!!Hello Traders, After the ECB interest rate decision and EURUSD falling more than 100 pips, I want to share with you my current 1/4 hour perspective. I have no doubts about it that the EURUSD is still bullish in the weekly chart and daily chart. Tomorrow I will publish a detailed analysis on the EURUSD in weekly timeframe explaining that. However, coming back to the short-term view. After breaking the resistance at 1.21475, the EURUSD accelerated the weakness today. But don’t get fooled. These moves are just another pullback to get into a possible bull market again. Why the EURUSD is bullish has a lot of implications in my view (fundamentals, Intermarket, Technical etc.). In fact a lot of Intermarket reasons. Anyway, in this analysis, I want to give you a small insight into the Intermarket analysis and why I think the EURUSD will probably turn higher soon, once it reaches the area of around 1.2021. Below the EURUSD chart, you can see the correlations coefficient indicator. Showing the correlation between the EURUSD and USDNOK. You may now think why the USDNOK. Well, there are a lot of reasons which I can’t explain here. But one reason is the correlation to each other. You can see that the indicator is indicating an overall negative correlation in time. Which basically means that when the EURUSD is rising for example in most cases the USDNOK should decline and vice versa. Obviously, we need to understand that they don’t move exactly the same but you can see for example the blue arrow in the EURUSD moving lower whereas at the same time USDNOK moved higher. Now, having a look at the USDNOK you can see that the market broke its falling trend line to the upside. However, USDNOK is currently trapped in a range between 8.05541-7.62619. The idea is that USDNOK is at the top of the range. My bias is that it will fail to break out higher and falls again and get be trapped in the mentioned range. So when I expect the USDNOK to trade lower like shown in the chart and taking into consideration that EURUSD has a negative correlation to USDNOK I need to say that the EURUSD will soon bounce higher when USDNOK goes for the pullback. And that is the view. I am expecting maybe next week the EURUSD to move higher once it reaches the 50% retracement at around 1.20217. Let’s see. Disclaimer: Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourself in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view, and any view present is not a trading recommendation just personal view. Bitcoin 3.34% -
by TradeFxTrends
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Bearish correction expectedThe US Dollar has appreciated substantially against the Norwegian Krone this week. The pair shot up 2.82% in just one session, thus moving away from the 2016/2018 low of 7.64 and confirming one more time a downward-sloping trend-line circa 7.8820. The pair has since edged slightly lower in order to ease from the aforementioned daily surge. It is likely that the current bearish sentiment continues to prevail in the market during the following week. A breakout of the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement, the weekly R1 and the 55-hour SMA near 7.8270 could be an early indication of this bearish scenario. The following support of significance is formed by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs near 7.60. In general, the Greenback could target the bottom trend-line and the monthly R1 in the 7.66 territory next week. On the other hand, in case the strong resistance of the weekly R2, the monthly PP and the trend-line is breached near 7.860, the rate should push towards 8.00.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK Dominant resistance is testedAlthough many resistance levels were passed on other US Dollar's pairs during the fundamental surge of the Buck generated testimony of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell., the USD/NOK pair’s resistance has held its ground. Namely, the resistance of the large scale pattern, which represents the pair’s decline since late 2017, has held its ground. Its upper trend line had enough power to hold. However, it was strengthened by the weekly R1 at the 7.9194 level. Meanwhile, during the recent trading sessions a new long term pattern was spotted, which is a result of the pair bouncing off the lower trend line of a multi year pattern. To keep it short, the mentioned patterns are set to face one another in the upcoming trading sessions and a triangle pattern is likely to form and result in a break out.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Rate trades in channel downThe US Dollar has been trading in a channel down against the Norwegian Krone since mid-November. As apparent on the chart, the Greenback has moved in neat channels within the bounds of this pattern. After reversing from the senior channel and the 50.00% Fibo retracement at 8.0271 on February 9, the pair has since formed a new short-term channel down. Taking all this into account, it is expected that the Greenback might continue depreciating against its Norwegian counterpart within the following trading sessions. This movement could be confined within the drawn junior channel. A possible downside target for the following week could be the 2016/2018 high of 7.6353. The US Dollar did already reverse from this level on two separate occasions during 2018; thus, a subsequent surge is the most likely scenario.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Pair respects senior channelThe US Dollar has made a sharp recovery against the Norwegian Krone during the past trading sessions. This strong upward movement comes after the pair bounced off the bottom boundary of a long-term descending channel circa 7.63. Given that this line was respected, the pair is likely to advance even further within the following week or two, setting the 8.05 area as a possible target. In the short term, however, traders might see a brief correction south down to the combined support of the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP located at 7.71. In case this area does not hold, the US Dollar should be stopped by the channel line near 7.63. Subsequently, the rate should accelerate and move higher, as already described previously.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Pair consolidates near four-month lowThe US Dollar has been trading in a channel down against the Norwegian Krone since mid-October. The bottom boundary of this pattern was tested last Wednesday when the pair hit a four-month low of 7.82. It has remained relatively stable during the past week. The Greenback re-tested the aforementioned low a few sessions later but nevertheless failed to form a distinct wave either up or down. It is expected that the pair continues to approach the upper boundary of both channels near the 7.88 mark. The steepness of the longer-term channel demonstrate that this pattern could be breached in the nearest time. However, the Greenback should still overcome a significant resistance cluster set by the 100– and 55-hour SMAs, the weekly PP and the monthly S3 circa 7.87; the 200-hour SMA is likewise located nearby at 7.92. A successful breakout of these levels might suggest that the upside momentum towards the 8.01 area is to persist for several sessions.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Breached long-term channelThe US Dollar has been appreciating against the Norwegian Krone in a channel up since late August. During this period of appreciation, the pair managed to reach its six-month high of 8.4161 on December 21. After that, the bearish sentiment took over and thus allowed for a breakout of the aforementioned long-term channel earlier this week. It is expected that the Greenback could be tended north during the following sessions; however, this upward movement might not be very significant. A possible target in this case might be the 8.2690 area, as the monthly and weekly PPs and the 200-hour SMA are located nearby. By and large, the bearish sentiment should eventually prevail and thus push the rate lower.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Greenback re-tests channelThe US Dollar has been appreciating against the Norwegian Krone in a channel up for the last four months. The trading range within this pattern, however, shifted upwards when the rate failed to reach the bottom channel boundary three weeks ago. The same situation occurred last week. As apparent on the chart, the Greenback was trading between 8.2523 and 8.3509 since late November. A massive surge last week breached this range and allowed for a re-test of the upper channel boundary circa 8.39. Technical indicators suggest that the rate is likely to either move lower or remain near 8.38 during the following day. The nearest resistance is the monthly R1 and weekly R2 circa 8.41, while significant support is set by the 100– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 8.31. It is likely that the US Dollar starts weakening during the second half of this week, thus approaching the monthly PP at 8.2551.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Rate stranded in wedgeAfter reaching the 2016/2017 low of 7.7018 on September 8, USD/NOK started a period of recovery in an ascending channel. If looking at the current situation, the pair’s latest wave down began two weeks ago and it is gradually leading the US Dollar towards the bottom boundary of the previously-mentioned channel. This movement has been stranded in a falling wedge. From a theoretical point of view, all indications point to a soon breakout north. Given that the pair retraced from the 50.0% Fibo, the Greenback might still push slightly lower down to the 8.09 area where the 38.2% Fibo and the weekly S1 are located. However, the rate’s subsequent movement should be to the upside. Meanwhile, the steepness of the channel up is unlikely to hold for long now, and thus the pair could eventually break the bottom boundary of this pattern—most probably during next week. A medium-term upside target is expected to be the monthly R1 at 8.3142.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USDNOK long for month of NovemberUSDNOK broke the moving average, suggesting a potential trend change. This in tandem with October's monthly bull candle gives me enough reason to believe an up trend is about to begin. My orders are placed at fibonacci retracement levels 1.0, 78.6, 61.8, 50.0, 38.2, 23.6. and 0.0. Each order contains a 30 pip stop loss and no take profit target. These trades are designed to have 3 different exit strategies: 1) Stop out. 2) Manual closure. 3) End of month manual closure. * End of month manual closure means that the month is over and trade parameters are no longer valid, therefore I will close the trades manually.
Long
by BACapitalManagement