XAU/USD - Channel Breakout (05.05.2025)The XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 3321
2nd Resistance – 3357
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DJ FXCM Index
USD/CAD - Wedge Breakout (06.05.2025)The USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.3893
2nd Resistance – 1.3928
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EURUSD directional bias: BuyPrice has closed above a key 4h resistance level. Based on the higher timeframe direction, I am expecting price to continue upwards to the recent high (1.5568).
Please be aware that we have a USD Interest Rate release on Wednesday which could cause a lot of volatility in the market. Keep this in mind if you decide to trade this direction.
Dollar Bounce to 103 Incoming or Straight to 96?Will the Dollar Keep Tumbling, or Are We About to Bounce Back to 103 in May?
Checking out the monthly charts, April finally delivered a close under that critical 100 level, breaking a floor that held firm for years:
Zooming into the weekly chart, we’ve retraced back to test the 100 level from below. It’s now acting as resistance—so, is another big drop coming?
Long term, my bias is clear: the dollar looks set to keep sliding lower after breaking the crucial 100 mark. But if we flip to the daily charts, we can clearly see signs of a short-term bounce brewing. It looks like price might want to squeeze back inside the range, aiming for that juicy sell zone around the 103 mark—the very origin of the leg down that initially broke 100:
This 103 area is a prime spot for short-term bulls, and an even better opportunity to start loading up on shorts for a move down towards the Monthly buy zone around 96.
Personally, I won’t trade USDX directly to the upside—I'll instead use this analysis to play setups on pairs like EURUSD and AUDUSD, as they're approaching key resistance areas right now.
My game plan: wait patiently for price to reach around 103, then start hunting for sell signals. But first, we’ll need a solid daily close back above 100, something I think we could see happen this week.
Don’t forget—we’ve got the Fed’s interest rate decision coming up, which might trigger some volatility. We could easily rally up to 103 ahead of the decision and then see a sell-off afterward. Of course, if the Fed throws us a curveball, the dollar might never get back above 100, and just continue dropping straight away.
Right now, the 100 level is crucial—so watch closely.
What’s your take? Drop your thoughts below! 😊
USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W19 D6 Y25USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W19 D6 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Intraday breaks of structure
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
✅15' order block identified
✅ inconclusive regarding 15' mitigated, therefore 5' order block identified after potential 15' mitigation
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
EURUSD | Head‑&‑Shoulders on the Brink – Bears Eye 1.1250📉 Trade Thesis
A textbook Head‑and‑Shoulders has completed on the 30‑min EURUSD chart. Price is now testing the rising neckline drawn from mid‑April swing lows. A clean close and retest beneath that trendline opens room toward the next demand shelf and the lower boundary of the broader ascending channel.
🎯 Execution Plan
Entry: wait for a decisive candle close below the neckline, then look to short on a minor pull‑back into that broken support.
Stop: just above the right‑shoulder high to keep risk tight.
Target: the measured‑move objective sits near the channel median/support cluster highlighted on the chart; scale out as price approaches that zone.
🧩 Confluence Factors
Momentum loss: RSI made a lower peak on the “head” versus the prior thrust, signalling fading upside energy.
Event risk: upcoming NFP/ISM releases may fuel USD volatility, providing the catalyst for a break.
Structure: the right shoulder’s supply shelf has capped every rally since late April, reinforcing bearish pressure.
⚠️ Risk Management
Macro data can produce whipsaws—size positions accordingly and stick to the plan. Move stops to breakeven once price pushes convincingly away from the neckline.
For educational purposes only. Trade your own strategy & manage risk.
EURUSD Channel Up favors buying but keep an eye on this.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the February 28 Low and its current Bearish Leg almost reached the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. That is where the previous Bearish Leg made a Higher Low (March 27) and rebounded.
This keeps for now the bullish trend intact and it will remain so for as long as the price remains within the Channel Up. The short-term Target is the -0.236 Fib extension at 1.17500. If on the other hand it breaks below the Channel Up, be ready to take the small loss and sell towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 1.08500, which is the level that supported the market on that previous March 27 Low.
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Bearish reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 100.51
1st Support: 97.85
1st Resistance: 101.83
Risk Warning:
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Usdcad PWL?!Good day traders, we back with USDCAD on the 4h TF. Well for this setup I am looking for price to take out out previous week low, previous week we had a candle stick pattern recognition after we saw price move lower but failing to close lower told a different story that price is not yet ready to start moving higher which honestly speaking was my bias last week. For the rest of the day I believe we can expect lower prices to close the day.
DXY (US Dollar): Bullish Order FlowA bullish order block has been identified on the H1 timeframe, situated below the Asian session range. With the US Dollar maintaining steady strength, there is potential for price to retrace into this order block for mitigation. Should this occur, a continuation of the bullish trend is anticipated, with price likely to rally and break above the recent structural high.
what is fair value gap ? what is fair value gap ?
-This Analysis is based on educational purposes using the concepts of Smart Money and Liquidity Sweep area
- We create two fair Value gaps in which market will act on that
first one is between 3247 to 3260 area expecting move down from that point and touched 3192 to 3165 which is a strong liquidity zone
Gold Market Outlook – Upcoming FED Decision & Trading StrategyAs we head into the upcoming week, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is a major catalyst for gold. This event could significantly influence gold’s direction — either fueling the ongoing bullish trend or triggering a pullback.
🔎 Current Technical Outlook:
Gold is currently showing strong bullish momentum across higher timeframes.
Liquidity targets remain above, with key zones likely to be breached via wicks or trendline taps.
Given the uncertainty around the news and macro factors, we’ll execute trades only on confirmed setups from lower timeframe's confirmation.
📌 Trade Plan:
Open 50% of the position at $3160,
an inevitable level which is a critical level backed by technical confluence.
Enter remaining positions based on lower timeframe confirmation.
📝 Supporting Fundamentals:
COT (Commitment of Traders) Report indicates an increase in net long positions on gold.
$3160 is highly probable — we anticipate price to tap this zone.
The U.S. has significantly increased gold imports, reflecting strategic accumulation.
Smart money has taken partial profits, but large bullish positions are still being held.
Expectation: A sweep of major liquidity levels, followed by a continuation of the bullish trend.
Stay sharp and disciplined. Wait for confirmation before adding full exposure.
EURUSD: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis
and important supports & resistances on EURUSD
for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Technical Analysis for FX,Indices and many More!(5May-9May2025)Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Which pairs or instruments should we keep a look out for?
For me I am looking at :
GbpAud and probably EurAud for shorts
BTC likely to continue upwards move
Majors to turn lower against USD
Precious metals like copper and silver to bear more, Gold too.
This coming week is packed with interest rate decision, how?What to do?
Do check out my recorded video for more insights!
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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DXY (US Dollar Index) – Bullish Setup📊 DXY (US Dollar Index) – Bullish Setup from FVG & Trendline Confluence
Price tapped into a well-defined Fair Value Gap (FVG UP) aligning with bullish trendline support. I'm anticipating a small retracement toward the 99.88–99.81 area before continuation upward.
📍 Entry Zone: 99.88 – 99.81 (FVG + Trendline)
🛑 Stop Loss: 99.71
🎯 Target (TP): 100.32
📐 RR: Approx. 1:3
Confluences:
Bullish market structure
FVG filled & respected
Ascending trendline support
Liquidity taken below previous lows
🔔 Watching for bullish reaction after the minor pullback for confirmation.
USDJPY: FVG Then Bullish Overflow?It has been a significant week for USD/JPY. Following a break of structure (BOS) on the 4-hour timeframe, price moved away from equilibrium, leaving behind a Fair Value Gap (FVG). As the new week begins, we may observe a false move designed to induce traders into premature short positions before a potential bullish reversal—or vice versa. Additionally, given the recent BOS, price may temporarily stall to facilitate order accumulation. Next week will be pivotal in determining the pair’s next direction.
Watch out for the key levels
USD/CHF: Bearish ForecastPrice is likely to retrace into the 0.83593 – 0.85750 demand zone or push higher into the FVG (0.8700 – 0.8800) before facing rejection. As long as price holds below these zones, the downtrend should continue, targeting new lows below 0.8100.
Bearish momentum remains intact unless price breaks above the FVG.
EUR/USD - Channel Breakout (02.05.2025) FX:EURUSD The EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.1387
2nd Resistance – 1.1430
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TVC:DXY
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Thank you.
USDJPY: Bounce on the 17 month Support starting massive rally.USDJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.306, MACD = -0.870, ADX = 40.251) but is on a massive bounce on the S1 Zone, which has been holding since December 25th 2023. That Low last week also approached the 1W MA200. The LH trendline is the Resistance level of this pattern (Descending Triangle) and since the last one hit the 0.786 Fibonacci, we expect this one to hit the 0.618 Fib (TP = 153.500).
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