EURUSD Channel Down bottoming on oversold 4H RSI.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the December 06 2024 High. The 4H RSI is oversold (<30.00) and every time it has been so on this pattern, it was a buy opportunity.
The target of those buy signals has been the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). We expect the price to be at least 1.02850 when it hits it.
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DJ FXCM Index
Dollar Index (DXY): One More Clear Sign of Strength
Looks like Dollar Index is going to continue rising.
After an extended accumulation within a horizontal parallel channel,
the market violated its upper boundary on Friday.
Bullish trend will most likely continue.
Next goal - 110.5
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USD/JPY (UJ) Analysis (Daily Timeframe)The USD/JPY pair has been following a clear market cycle, transitioning from distribution to markdown , followed by accumulation , and now entering a bullish markup phase , showcasing strong bullish momentum.
Key Observations:
Market Phases:
Distribution Phase: The bullish move ended near the 162 level , where sellers gained control, initiating a markdown.
Accumulation Phase: After a significant markdown, UJ found a base around the 140 level, forming an accumulation phase with demand coming back into the market.
Current Phase: The pair has now broken out of accumulation and is in a bullish move, with a well-defined structure of higher highs and higher lows.
EMA Surfing and Momentum:
The price is currently surfing upward along the EMAs , showing strong trend-following behavior with EMAs acting as dynamic support.
The tightening of the EMAs during the accumulation phase has now expanded , supporting the continuation of the bullish move.
Scenarios to Watch:
Continuation to Targets:
USD/JPY could continue its bullish momentum toward the short-term target near 159 and potentially the medium-term target around 162. This aligns with the ongoing strength in the USD and the current bullish structure .
Pullback for Reaccumulation:
A potential retracement could act as a reaccumulation phase, gathering liquidity before resuming the uptrend.
NAS100/USTEC - 4hr| Descending TriangleSimple Trading: Descending Triangle
Nas100 has been trailing down for the past week. if the price breaks below 20,700, then the bullish momentum may be loss. Expect Nas100 to continue to bounce from one end of the triangle to the other end. Once the Triangle is broken, we can reveal the exact target area. Keep in mind that the last 4hr candle has closed below the previous candle low. Price could be preparing for a pullback before continuing to make a lower low. This will either be a break and retest with continued bearish pressure or a complete fakeout.
Why is the GBP Selling Off?The GBP/USD pair has seen a significant drop, plunging to 1.2191, a level last witnessed in November 2023. This decline comes despite rising UK bond yields, with the 30-year yield reaching 5.47% and the 10-year yield at 4.8%, both historic highs not seen in decades. Typically, such yields would support the pound; however, lingering fears of inflation and fiscal instability have outweighed this effect. The UK faces economic challenges, including increased borrowing costs and fiscal constraints under Chancellor Rachel Reeves' leadership. Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to gain momentum, driven by strong economic indicators and rising Treasury yields. As traders monitor the unfolding fiscal policies in the UK and any shifts in US trade strategies, the GBP/USD pair is likely to remain volatile. Keep an eye on these developments, as they will be key drivers in determining future price action in this currency pair.
Dollar Set to rally Before Trump is in office? #USDCHF UPDATEIn this video, we provided a quick update on our USDCHF trade that we analyzed and entered yesterday. We took some profits, broke even on the original position, and added a new position for a short-term play.
We still anticipate higher prices for the USD Dollar overall, especially as we approach President Trump’s upcoming term in office.
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Have a specific pair you’d like us to analyze? Drop it in the comments, and we’ll do our best to cover it this weekend.
Happy trading, and enjoy your weekend!
EUR/USD Bearish PennantThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Pennant pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0242
2nd Support – 1.0205
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GBPUSD Ultimate buy signal at the bottom of the 2year Channel UpThe GBPUSD pair brutally reversed this week's early gains and the 1W candle will most likely close in red after making a new Low. The trend has been bearish since the September 23 2024 High and has been accelerated after the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) rejection in early December.
This is however the ultimate long-term buy opportunity as the price is almost at the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up. On top of that, the 1W RSI is almost on the oversold barrier (30.00), a level intact since October 2022.
As long as the price is closing within the Channel Up, we see a rebound towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level very likely, as it happened in November 2023. Our Target is 1.2950.
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BTCUSD Is Too Overbought?HI today you can see the BTCUSD chart, and the higher time frame charts have shown some potential overbought levels. Is it too risky to buy and hold now? There are some important old levels that have shown some support in recent years. Be careful of the market now with BTCUSD, thanks. Is it possible that the banks can short more now? For now I am following the EURUSD more closer, thank you. Please support us by following me thanks!
#btcusd
#eurusd
#btc
#usd
#eur
USDJPY Analysis Here's a bullish channel setup on USDJPY! The pair is respecting the ascending trendline, and we’re seeing signs of potential upside movement. 🚀
🎯 Targets:
Take Profit 1: 158.451
Take Profit 2: 158.825
Take Profit 3: 159.154
📉 Stop Loss: 157.582 (below the channel support).
The pair is currently trading near the channel’s lower boundary, offering a great risk-to-reward ratio. Keep an eye on this one—it could deliver solid gains! 💰
Let’s see how this plays out! 💹
EURUSD: Channel Down showing no signs of reversal yet.EURUSD is on a strong bearish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.852, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 18.889) as it is trading inside a Channel Down since September 30th 2024. As long as the 1D MA50 is unbroken, the bearish trend will continue to prevail. Right now the trend has slowed down, but the 1D RSI Rectangle clearly shows that a local top (LH) is in. We will remain bearish, aiming for the Channel'd middle (TP = 1.01700).
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USDJPY: Channel Up extending its 2nd bullish wave.USDJPY continues to trade on an highly bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 66.571, MACD = 1.090, ADX = 47.294) as today made a new high inside the 4 month Channel Up. It is on its 2nd bullish wave and it has started its 2nd stage, as it crossed above the 0.382 Fibonacci level, much like the previous bullish wave on October 21st. Aim for the 0 Fib near the top of the Channel (TP = 164.000)
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GBP/USD Trendline BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a Strong Trendline . This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2390
2nd Support – 1.2332
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gold awaiting breakout above 2656.6 on 2 times breakout to buy#XAUUSD on retracment, price have been trying to hold bullish at 2656 which holds bullish breakout but firstly we wait for 2 times breakout above there to buy which will push it above 2672 for sell reverse, SL 2648.6, TP 2672. Below 2648.6 have strong bearish if the price breaks below.
USD/JPY Poised for a Breather Before Resuming Its AscentUSD/JPY: A Strategic Pause Before the Next Bullish Wave
The USD/JPY currency pair is taking a breather, consolidating after a period of robust growth. This pause comes as a natural result of market dynamics, offering traders an opportunity to reflect on the underlying forces shaping the pair’s trajectory. The strengthening U.S. dollar, supported by a resilient economy and relatively hawkish monetary policy, contrasts sharply with the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This divergence in central bank approaches creates a fertile environment for medium-term bullish potential in the USD/JPY pair.
Over the past year, the currency pair has experienced a rollercoaster ride. A sharp decline in 2022 was fueled by aggressive rate cuts in the United States, a slight tightening move by the BoJ, and interventionist measures from Japan’s central bank aimed at stabilizing the yen. However, these interventions proved largely ineffective in altering the broader trend. The USD/JPY pair eventually reversed its course, erasing nearly all of its losses and climbing back toward the significant 162.0 level—a testament to the enduring strength of the dollar and the yen's continued weakness.
Currently, the market is in a consolidation phase, with clear boundaries and well-defined levels emerging over the past several weeks. This phase serves as a critical juncture for traders, as it provides strong technical levels to guide trading strategies.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance Level: 158.1
Support Levels: 156.74, 155.88
The primary trigger for a bullish continuation lies at the resistance level of 158.1. A decisive breakout above this level, accompanied by sustained price consolidation, would signal the market's readiness to push higher, potentially targeting all-time highs (ATH). However, traders should also prepare for the possibility of a temporary correction. Should the resistance hold, the currency pair may retrace toward the lower boundaries of the consolidation zone before resuming its upward momentum.
Fundamental Context Driving USD/JPY
The current landscape is shaped by stark differences in monetary policy between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the BoJ. While the Fed has maintained a relatively hawkish stance, keeping rates elevated to combat inflation, the BoJ has stuck to its ultra-loose monetary policy framework. Japan’s central bank continues to cap bond yields and resist significant tightening measures, prioritizing economic stability over currency strength. This divergence has amplified the appeal of the U.S. dollar against the yen, drawing capital flows into dollar-denominated assets and sustaining the bullish narrative for USD/JPY.
Moreover, the broader macroeconomic environment supports the dollar's dominance. With robust labor market data, resilient GDP growth, and moderating inflation in the United States, the greenback remains a safe haven for investors navigating global uncertainties. In contrast, Japan's economy faces structural challenges, including stagnant wage growth and subdued consumer spending, further limiting the yen's recovery potential.
Technical Outlook: Preparing for the Next Move
From a technical perspective, the current consolidation is a healthy phase that sets the stage for the next significant move. Traders should closely monitor price action around the resistance at 158.1. A breakout above this level would open the door for an extended rally, with the psychological 162.0 level and beyond serving as potential targets.
Conversely, failure to break resistance could lead to a retracement toward the support levels at 156.74 and 155.88. Such a pullback would not invalidate the bullish outlook but would instead offer a better entry point for those looking to capitalize on the broader upward trend.
Trading Strategy
For traders, patience and precision are key in navigating this phase. Those with a bullish bias should wait for confirmation of a breakout above 158.1, accompanied by increased volume and sustained consolidation. Meanwhile, a pullback to support levels could present an opportunity for value-based entries, provided the broader trend remains intact. Risk management remains paramount, as false breakouts and unexpected market shifts can occur in such volatile conditions.
Conclusion
The USD/JPY pair is at a crossroads, with consolidation serving as the calm before the next storm. The interplay between a strong dollar and a dovish BoJ creates a compelling case for further upside, but traders must remain vigilant and adaptable. Whether the pair breaks resistance or retraces to support, the medium-term outlook remains bullish, underpinned by both technical and fundamental factors.
Stay prepared and disciplined, as the next leg of the journey toward new highs could be just around the corner.
EURUSD Buy signal on (4h)EURUSD is trading inside a Channel Down and is pulling back on the (4h) time frame after a double top near the MA200 (4h).
The crossing under the MA50 (4h) is following a pattern similar to December 2nd, which turns it now into a buy opportunity.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.04500 (MA200 4h and under the +2.88% move that December did).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is approaching the 40.00 level of the December 2nd bounce. Additional buy signal.
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DXY: Ascending Triangle topping soon. Excellent sell opportunityThe U.S. Dollar Index is on a steady bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.447, MACD = 0.640, ADX = 33.835) as with the exception of November's last week, it has been rising nonstop since September 30th 2024. The price is near the HH Zone of the Ascending Triangle, the 1W RSI has double topped and we are, or getting close to, the new long term top. Technically the 1W RSI is already similar to the October 9th 2023 top. The risk now is lower in going short. Aim for the 1W MA200 (TP = 103.000), which was the level that offered the late September support.
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Trudeau’s Expected Resignation Prompts Dollar ReboundThe USD/CAD pair hit 1.4379, reflecting a rebound from its earlier January 2016 lows, as traders react to the potential resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. This possible political shift has also strengthened the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, causing the loonie to pare some of its earlier gains. Trudeau's anticipated departure, amid public and legislative pressure, adds an element of political uncertainty in Canada, which could impact the CAD's stability. Meanwhile, in the U.S., President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans are being recalibrated to target only critical imports, a shift from his campaign's universal tariff approach. This adjustment aims to mitigate widespread disruptions and price increases, potentially supporting market stability and investor confidence. As these geopolitical and economic factors unfold, traders should remain vigilant, as developments in Canadian leadership and U.S. trade policies could introduce further volatility and influence USD/CAD dynamics.
gold on bearish touching 2634#XAUUSD have finally breakout below the main range for reverse but now it's seems the candle isn't making any move back on buy, based on D1 and H4 past candle price was bearish on minimum drop. Now we expect same move to occur, sell limit 2634, TP 2615.34,SL 2642. Above 2642 we await for 2 times breakout to buy.