CORE5 WEEKLY WARMAP — 1 DECEMBER 2025The market opens the week with the dollar locked inside a well-defined range between 97.67 and 99.98. Price is sitting near the mid-zone around 98.60, showing no structural breakout. Until one of these levels is taken out with conviction, this is a rotation environment, not a trend environment.
Yields continue to firm. The 10-year is up about 1.63 percent and the 2-year roughly 1.66 percent. Higher yields paired with a rangebound dollar create a more selective backdrop for risk assets. ES holds strength inside its upper band, but rising volatility signals a shift toward more two-way movement. Gold liquidated last week’s high and remains in a two-month bullish range. Across the six-chart grid, the underlying message is the same: strength on the surface, tension underneath.
The calendar is dense. ISM Manufacturing, ADP employment, ISM Services, trade balance, consumer credit, Michigan sentiment, and the full employment situation report arrive in a tight cluster. Each print feeds directly into expectations for the Fed’s December path.
Through the CORE5 lens, the dollar’s range defines the entire week. Market Structure confirms a rotation box. Dynamic Geometry shows price in discount, favoring fast intraday swings rather than smooth trends. Volume Flow flipped bearish last week after failing the bullish daily range, turning prior volume shelves into supply. Order Flow across FX pairs remains bullish, removing justification for blind shorting of risk assets. Execution must stay high-frequency, level-to-level, and based on clear confirmation.
The weekly thesis is direct: markets are being driven by firm yields and a heavy sequence of U.S. data. This is a reaction-driven week, not a predictive one. Intraday rotations offer more clarity than directional conviction.
The takeaway: the dollar remains inside its box, yields are firm, and volatility is rising. Treat every level as a behavior test. Trade the rotations, not your opinions.
— CORE5DAN
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