The move is up to the buyersHi traders and investors!
The price has already played out the upper boundary of the scenario, rising above 120,500. Then it also reached the lower boundary by dropping below 115,222.
Now we are at an interest moment: will the price continue to move upward or not?
This situation is clearly visible on the 8-hour timeframe.
On the 8H chart, we see a sideways range, similar to the 1D timeframe. The lower boundary is 115,736 and the upper boundary is 123,218. The active initiative is currently with the buyers, and their target is 120,998 и 123,218.
There is a notable bar attacking the lower boundary (115,736) with very high volume. The high of that bar is 118,451. We’re watching to see whether buyers absorb this bar — that will determine how the next move plays out.
There are three key levels where buyers may step in: 116,782, 116,128, and 115,736. If the price drops to any of these, we can look for a long setup.
Above, we also have three resistance levels from the sellers: 118,451, 119,676, and 120,247. We’ll be watching how sellers react if the price tests these zones.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
Volume
RUNE/USDT Weekly swing set upI love this chart and I entered a long trade on futures. After a sharp decline of the price we are retesting a huge weekly demand zone, we saw the volume really spike up on this area. If Ethereum continues its run which I believe so, I think Rune could really perform well. It is a swing trade so I am going to keep this position open for a few months and see how it develops.
Like and share guys and leave your thoughts on the comment section!
See you on the next one.
BTC Balanced Volume Profile BTC is now trading in a textbook D-Shape Volume Profile. In english - Buyers & Sellers are happy to transact here and will stay inside the value area & consolidating sideways until further notice.
Consolidation at POC is a signature of this profile, and one of the easiest and least stressful trade setups because now, your mission, should you chose to accept. Is to fade the Highs (VAH) and Lows (VAL) and avoid the middle unless you love donating money to the market.
I'll have buy limit orders waiting right below the VAL where we have the single prints. It doesn't get any easier than this.
Doesn't mean price cant rip through, but this is always the best entry with less risk, especially when the single prints have not been tested yet..
BINANCE:BTCUSD CME:MBT1!
PENGUUSDT Daily Chart Analysis | Powerful Uptrend in PlayPENGUUSDT Daily Chart Analysis | Powerful Uptrend in Play
🔍 Let’s dissect the current PENGU/USDT daily chart, highlighting the unmistakable bullish structure and mapping potential targets as this trend matures.
⏳ Daily Overview
PENGUUSDT is riding a strong upward trend, with all three daily SMAs (7, 25, and 99) lined up in bullish sequence—clear confirmation of momentum. Recent rallies are also supported by textbook volume behavior: volume consistently surges during price climbs and tapers off during minor corrections, reflecting the classic signature of a robust uptrend.
🔺 Bullish Setup and Price Targets:
The next major upside target sits at $0.0910, almost 85% above the current level. For bulls, a daily candle closing above $0.043305 with convincing volume should act as a confirmation for fresh highs—though, as it’s Saturday, even moderate volume could suffice for a valid breakout.
📊 Key Highlights:
- All SMAs (7, 25, 99) confirming the uptrend on daily timeframe.
- Volume spikes on upward moves, fades on corrections—classic bullish confirmation.
- Historical trend velocity: Each time a new high (HH) is set, it’s preceded by around 5 days of advance; first leg was +83%, second +124%, the next (projected) is +160%, aligning with the $0.0910 target.
- Corrections: After each rally, pullbacks have measured about 15% and 20%. Should the first target be reached, expect a correction up to 25%—a healthy reset for further continuation.
🚨 Conclusion:
With all signals aligned—moving averages, volume dynamics, and historic price structure—the path remains bullish. A decisive close above $0.043305, especially with solid volume, could be the catalyst for the next major leg higher. As always, monitor for typical correction ranges post-breakout in line with the prior trend.
ETH to Lead BTC Over Next 6 Months, Says Galaxy CEOIn a bold forecast that has reignited the debate over crypto market leadership, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that Ethereum (ETH) is poised to outperform Bitcoin (BTC) over the next six months, citing improving fundamentals, institutional tailwinds, and critical network upgrades.
Novogratz, a long-time crypto advocate with deep ties to both traditional finance and blockchain innovation, made the statement during an interview at the Digital Asset Summit in New York, sparking renewed discussion about the shifting dynamics between the two largest digital assets by market capitalization.
Ethereum’s Evolving Investment Case
“Ethereum is becoming more than just a smart contract platform,” said Novogratz. “It’s evolving into a foundational layer for the future of finance.”
This confidence is underpinned by Ethereum’s transition to proof-of-stake, reduced energy consumption, and growing usage of Layer 2 scaling solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism. These developments, Galaxy argues, have made Ethereum more attractive to institutional investors who previously stayed away due to scalability concerns and environmental critiques.
Stronger Fundamentals, Expanding Utility
Ethereum’s network revenue—driven by transaction fees and on-chain activity—has consistently outpaced competitors. According to Galaxy’s internal research, Ethereum generated over $2.1 billion in protocol revenue in the first half of 2025, compared to just under $1.5 billion for Bitcoin.
Additionally, the rise of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, DeFi resurgence, and the adoption of Ethereum-based stablecoins by traditional finance platforms have significantly enhanced ETH’s long-term value proposition.
“Ethereum is no longer a tech experiment. It’s infrastructure,” Novogratz stated.
Bitcoin Still Dominates, But ETH Momentum Grows
While Novogratz remains bullish on Bitcoin, he emphasizes that BTC is now more of a macro hedge than a dynamic growth asset. With institutional investors already heavily exposed to Bitcoin via spot ETFs, the marginal capital over the next cycle may shift toward Ethereum, particularly as ETH-based ETF products gain traction.
“Bitcoin remains the king of store-of-value assets in crypto. But Ethereum is where innovation and yield are happening,” Novogratz added.
Six-Month Outlook
Galaxy projects that ETH could outperform BTC by 20–30% in the second half of 2025, driven by upgrades like Proto-Danksharding, expanding Layer 2 activity, and Ethereum’s role in cross-chain interoperability.
Novogratz also hinted that Galaxy is allocating more capital into Ethereum-based venture projects and staking infrastructure, in anticipation of a “second-layer boom” later this year.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin remains the undisputed anchor of the crypto economy, Ethereum’s expanding utility, institutional relevance, and revenue-generating capabilities position it to lead performance in the near term.
Gold Futures Update – 0.5 Fib Stop Hit, Eyes on 0.618 ConfluenceGold Futures Update – 0.5 Fib Stop Hit, Eyes on 0.618 Confluence
Our initial long setup at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level has been stopped out, but the structure remains constructive.
Price is now approaching a key confluence zone at $3,336 , where:
The 0.618 fib retracement from the recent swing low to high aligns perfectly,
The ascending trendline support (respected multiple times since May) intersects, and
The oint of Control (POC) from the visible volume profile shows dominant volume transacted.
This area represents a high-probability support level where bulls may attempt to defend again. We’re monitoring for reaction and potential entry signals around this level. A break below would invalidate the rising wedge structure and shift bias toward lower fib extensions.
Long MES I see CME_MINI:ESU2025 is on a uptrend with a BOS( break of structure) at $6421, there is a trend line marked in blue that has been tested several times.
There is a support in confluence with POC area from a previous session. Above VWAP → Favorable for short positions (or considered expensive for long positions).
Below VWAP → Favorable for long positions (or considered expensive for sellers).
Personally, I build my position in zones — especially around key levels like order blocks, imbalance fills, or liquidity sweeps (Smart Money Concepts). I prefer scaling in when entering trades to catch better prices.
Fart Ichimoku Breakout Test📈 Checking bullish signals on the chart
✅ Positive signs:
- The price is stable above the cloud and the candles show the strength of buyers.
- Indicators such as RSI and trading volume are in a good position.
- The cloud broke with the body
First profit limit 1/451
Second profit limit 1/551
Limit of loss 1/320
Gold Futures (GC1!) Long Setup – 0.5 Fib Bounce🟡 Gold Futures (GC1!) Long Setup – 0.5 Fib Bounce
After nailing the long from the bottom and perfectly shorting the top, we’re stepping back in for another calculated move.
📉 Price pulled back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, aligning perfectly with the upward trendline support and a key HVN on the Volume Profile.
📈 Entered long at 3,365 with a tight stop below 3,354 (0.3% risk), targeting the descending trendline near 3,444 for a clean 7.7R setup.
🧠 Context:
Price reacted hard at resistance, but volume support and structure still lean bullish.
Clear invalidation if we break trend and lose 3,350 support cluster.
Let’s see if this bounce gets legs. 🚀
MARA: shoulders done, now walk toward the targetOn the daily chart, MARA completed a textbook inverse Head & Shoulders reversal with a clear breakout above the descending trendline. A corrective pullback followed, and the price is now heading into the key buy zone at 15.21–15.77 - aligning with the 0.72 and 0.79 Fibonacci retracements, and the upper boundary of the broken channel. This is the area to watch for a potential continuation of the bullish impulse.
Volume on the breakout was above average, confirming strong buyer interest. The EMAs are trending below the price, supporting the upward structure. The first target is located at 21.57 (previous resistance), with a potential extension to 28.77 (Fibonacci 1.618).
Fundamentally, MARA remains highly correlated with BTC and crypto sentiment. As interest returns to crypto-related assets due to ETF flows and possible Fed easing, mining stocks like MARA gain attention. Recent reports also show improved production efficiency and lowered costs - a tailwind for bulls.
Tactically, the best setup would be a confirmed reaction from the buy zone — whether a strong candlestick formation, volume surge, or reclaim of a key level. If that happens, aiming for 21.57 and 28.77 becomes a solid plan.
The pattern played out - now it's time for the market to walk the talk.
Will the low of this BTC zone be used as a buy point?We have an imbalance high being tested. We know that this also represents the consolidation range low where both TPs and long entries will be triggered.
Will this be enough to send us back bullish or will be need further correction of the imbalance? I think there's a high probability of this with DXY also running into it's daily bearish imbalance range.
GOLD: clean pullback - now let’s see if support holdsGold continues to trade within an ascending channel on the 4H chart. After a local high, the price pulled back and is now approaching the key zone at 3333–3335. This area lines up with the 0.79 Fib retracement, the lower channel boundary, and a major volume cluster — a classic confluence zone.
If buyers show up here and we get a bullish reversal candle, this becomes a valid long setup with a tight stop just below the level. First target is 3373 (0.5 Fib), followed by a potential retest of the high near 3439.
The structure remains intact, the pullback is orderly, and volume supports the move. As long as the channel holds - the bias stays bullish.
NZDCHF BUYSPrice was in a long downtrend, but sellers eventually lost strength. After a sharp selloff, the market began moving sideways — showing signs that larger players were quietly building positions while keeping price in a range.
Price then dipped below the range and quickly reversed, followed by strong buying that broke previous highs and shifted the overall structure from bearish to bullish. If that same buying pressure returns, we could see a continuation of the upward move as momentum builds.
Entry: 0.47629
Take Profit: 0.48139
Stop Loss: 0.47490
Bitcoin Slips Under 200-Day Moving Average – Will the Downtrend Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, recently slipped below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA)—a key technical indicator widely used by traders to assess long-term market trends. This breakdown has raised concerns among investors that the current correction could turn into a more sustained downtrend.
What Does the Break Below the 200-Day SMA Mean?
The 200-day SMA is traditionally viewed as the dividing line between bullish and bearish market phases. When BTC trades above this level, it signals strength and long-term bullish momentum. However, a drop below it is often seen as a warning sign that sentiment is shifting and sellers are gaining control.
As of writing, BTC is trading around $57,000, below the 200-day SMA, which stands near $58,400. Trading volumes have decreased, while technical indicators like the RSI and MACD are pointing to weakening momentum.
Reasons Behind the Decline
Several factors are contributing to BTC’s current downward movement:
Increased regulatory pressure – Recent actions by the SEC and other regulatory bodies targeting exchanges and token classifications have spooked markets.
Macroeconomic uncertainty – Market expectations of more hawkish monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve, including possible interest rate hikes, have added to investor anxiety.
Decreased institutional interest, as capital flows shift back toward traditional assets like gold and bonds.
Profit-taking by large holders (whales), especially after the strong performance during the spring rally.
Will the Downtrend Continue?
From a technical perspective, the next key support zone lies around $54,000–$55,000. A breakdown below this area could open the door to $50,000 and possibly lower levels. On the flip side, if BTC quickly recovers and closes above the 200-day SMA, the move could turn out to be a false breakdown, preserving the broader uptrend.
Traders should watch for:
Volume on rebounds: A bounce accompanied by rising volume could signal renewed buyer interest.
Altcoin behavior: In periods of uncertainty, capital tends to flow out of altcoins and into BTC or stablecoins.
Fundamental catalysts, such as ETF approvals or major institutional investments, which could quickly shift sentiment.
Conclusion
The drop below the 200-day SMA is a bearish technical signal and could mark the beginning of a medium-term downtrend. However, given the volatility of the crypto market, a swift recovery is always possible. Investors should remain cautious, closely monitor key levels, and keep an eye on both macro and on-chain developments.
APPL. Bulls are in ControlHello, I’m TheCafeTrader.
This post is for technical traders looking to capitalize on short swings and options.
What you’re seeing here are supply and demand zones — areas where liquidity is concentrated. These levels are identified using a system built around footprint data, order flow, and market imbalances.
🔹 Key Observation:
I’ve marked a seller that price has now broken above. This tells us that buyers have overpowered a sell-side participant, and are now likely targeting deeper liquidity in the $218–$225 range.
🔹 On Apple’s Behavior:
Apple can be slow and choppy at times. So, if you’re trading options, consider going as close to the money as possible and give yourself some time on the contracts.
🔹 New Buyer in the Market:
Between $199–$206, a new aggressive buyer has stepped in. This player appears to be pressuring the first line of sellers (labeled “beginning of supply”).
🟢 My Expectation:
I expect AAPL to pull back to around $206 before catching a bid. As long as price holds above $199, buyers remain in control. In this range, I anticipate further accumulation by bulls.
🔸 Take Profit Levels:
• First TP: Just before the major selling cluster around $218
• Final TP: Deep inside the seller zone near $223
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📊 Follow for more short-term analysis. This week, we’re covering both short- and long-term views of the MAG 7.
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