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Wave Analysis

Natural Gas Technical Convergence Signals a Major Trend ReversalNatural Gas is showing early signs of completing a multi-year bottom and entering a potential new bullish impulse cycle. 🔹 Key Technical Highlights: ✅ A-B-C correction ended at $1.50 (Feb 2024); impulse to $4.90 may be Wave 1. 🔁 Current pullback looks like Wave 2, potentially bottoming near $2.85–3.00. 🔼 Golden Cross (50 > 200 DMA) occurred in Oct 2024 — rare long-term bullish signal. 🔃 RSI & MACD momentum are rebounding from deeply oversold zones. 📊 Volume shows signs of capitulation and early accumulation near $3.00. 📐 Chart patterns: Triangle + falling wedge breakout (on 4 hr charts) = bottoming structure. 🌀 Seasonal cycles suggest spring weakness may be ending — summer upside risk rising. 💼 COT positioning: Specs remain extremely short, while commercials are net long — a classic contrarian buy setup. ⚖️ Gold/NG Ratio has peaked and is declining — historically a bullish signal for NG heading into 2026. 🔍 Directional Bias: Cautiously Bullish Majority of signals are now aligned or turning bullish. A sustained breakout above $3.75–4.00 would confirm a broader trend shift. 🧭 Trade Setups: 📍 Short-Term (1–2 weeks) Entry: $3.00–3.20 | Target: $3.75 | Stop: <$2.85 Play the bounce from oversold zone and 200DMA test 📍 Medium-Term (2–8 weeks) Accumulate: $3.00–3.30 | Target: $4.90–5.80 Possible Wave 3 breakout pending above $4.90 📍 Long-Term (3–12+ months) Position: $2.90–3.50 | Target: $6.20 → $9+ Post-correction rally underway; risk/reward is favorable on dips 🗓️ April 28 Candle Recap: Bullish engulfing candle on rising volume. If bulls hold this breakout into May, the $2.85–3.00 floor may be confirmed. 🔚 Bottom Line: NG appears to be transitioning from a long bear market into a new upcycle. The stars are aligning — just be ready for near-term chop.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by AZ-Technical
Netflix - The bulls just never stop!Netflix - NASDAQ:NFLX - is insanely bullish now: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) The entire stock market basically collapsed during April. Meanwhile, Netflix is creating new all time highs with a +20% parabolic bullish candle. Looking at the chart, this strength is very likely to continue even more until Netflix will (again) retest the upper resistance trendline. Levels to watch: $1.400 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by basictradingtv
10
Gold - Just Half Way To The Target!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) still has a lot more upside potential: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Over the past couple of months, we saw an almost incredible breakout rally of about +75% on Gold. However, looking at technicals, there is a quite high chance that Gold will actually rally even more and retest the next upper resistance trendline, which would mean another pump of about +75%. Levels to watch: $4.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:GOLDLong
by basictradingtv
16
Bitcoin Month end approachs and THIS is where we are- Cross Road As we end April, we can see a similar size candle to the one we saw in April 2017 and, if we are still following the 2013 - 2017 Fractal ( even if a little loosely now) then we can expect the next Few months to lead to the Next ATH. However, as explained in the previous post about the Long Term Resistance Arc and how we may be in the Closing stages of the First Bitcoin Cycle, the over head resistance is STRONG ( dashed Arc ) These 2 lines of resistance at around 109K usd form an intersection and this is with little doubt the point to try and break through. Historically, BTC PA has tried to aim towards intersections of Trendlines when they have strength So, This is what I am expecting for MAY but I will explain this in more detail in the montlly Candle Colour post in a couple fo days What to expect The April candle Will close GREEN and we now need a Green MAY candle and this MAY candle needs to break over the dotted Threshold line, as it did in May 2017 And we have to wait and see if that happens
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Orriginal
IGRDthe chart shows a technical analysis of Estithmar Holding (IGRD) on a weekly timeframe, using Elliott Wave theory and Gann/Fibonacci angles to predict potential price movements. Key Observations: Elliott Wave Pattern – ABC Correction: The chart suggests that the stock completed wave B at a recent high. A downward corrective wave C is anticipated, as shown by the red dotted line. Bearish Divergence: At the bottom, a momentum oscillator (likely RSI or a similar indicator) shows bearish divergence – price is rising, but momentum is falling. This is typically a warning signal that upside momentum is weakening. Downside Price Targets (based on Gann/Fibonacci angles): Possible support levels: 2.15 QAR 1.93 QAR 1.71 QAR 1.49 QAR Final target: ~1.06 QAR (as the lowest projected level) Warning Highlighted: The red text at the top: "IGRD – Estithmar Holding – See explanation below" This suggests a bearish outlook unless key resistance levels are broken with strong volume. Summary: Current trend: Overbought with signs of weakness. Outlook: Bearish correction likely. Action: Watch for confirmation of a downtrend or support at key Fibonacci/Gann levels.
QSE:IGRDShort
by QQQQ9999
Potential GBP/NZD long trade setupOkay, let's delve into each of those aspects for this potential GBP/NZD long trade setup: Probability of This Setup Playing Out While bullish divergence within a descending wedge can be a strong indication of a potential reversal, it's crucial to remember that no trading setup has a 100% success rate. Here's a breakdown of factors that could influence the probability: Strength of the Divergence: The clearer and more pronounced the bullish divergence, the higher the potential probability. In your chart, the divergence looks reasonably clear, with the MACD making higher lows while the price makes lower lows. Breakout Confirmation: The probability increases significantly upon a confirmed breakout above the upper trendline of the descending wedge. A strong bullish candle closing above this line, ideally with increasing volume, would add confidence. Market Context: Consider the broader market environment. Are there any significant fundamental events (e.g., central bank announcements, economic data releases) related to either the British Pound or the New Zealand Dollar that could disrupt this technical pattern? Strong unexpected news could invalidate the setup. Timeframe Congruence: While you're looking at the 4-hour chart, checking higher timeframes (daily, weekly) can provide context on the overall trend. If the longer-term trend aligns with your bullish bias, it can increase the probability of success. Risk Sentiment: Overall market risk sentiment can also play a role. GBP/NZD can be sensitive to risk appetite. In summary: The setup has a decent probability due to the bullish divergence and the potential for a wedge breakout, but it's essential to wait for confirmation and be aware of the broader market context. Potential Entry Points There are a few potential entry points you could consider, each with its own risk and reward profile: Aggressive Entry: Entering immediately upon a strong bullish candle breaking and closing above the upper trendline of the descending wedge. This offers the potential for the best entry price but also carries a higher risk of a false breakout. Conservative Entry: Waiting for a breakout and then a successful retest of the broken upper trendline as support before entering. This can offer a lower-risk entry as it confirms that the previous resistance has now become support. However, the price might not always retest. Entry on Confirmation Signals: Looking for additional bullish confirmation signals on lower timeframes (e.g., 1-hour chart) after the initial breakout. This could include bullish candlestick patterns or further positive momentum on indicators. Recommendation: For a balance of potential reward and risk management, waiting for a confirmed breakout followed by potential confirmation on a lower timeframe might be a prudent approach. Risk Management Strategies Effective risk management is paramount for any trade. Here are some strategies you could employ: Stop-Loss Placement: already marked a potential stop-loss level below the recent swing low within the wedge. This is a logical placement as a break below this level could invalidate the bullish setup. Ensure your stop-loss is at a level that, if hit, would indicate the analysis was likely incorrect. Position Sizing: Only risk a small percentage of your trading capital on this trade (e.g., 1-2%). This will protect you from significant losses even if the trade goes against you. Calculate your position size based on the distance between your entry point and your stop-loss. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Aim for a favorable reward-to-risk ratio. Your target levels (TRG 1, TRG 2, TRG 3) allow you to visualize potential profits. Ensure that the potential profit outweighs the potential loss before taking the trade. For example, if your stop-loss represents 20 pips of risk, aim for at least 40-60 pips of potential profit at your initial target (1:2 or 1:3 reward-to-risk). Trailing Stop-Loss: Once the trade moves into profit, consider using a trailing stop-loss to lock in gains and protect against a sudden reversal. Confirmation Signals You Might Look For Beyond the initial breakout, here are some additional signals that could strengthen your bullish conviction: Increased Volume: Higher trading volume during the breakout suggests strong buying pressure and increases the likelihood of the move being genuine. Bullish Candlestick Patterns: Formation of bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., bullish engulfing, morning star) after the breakout or during a potential retest can signal further buying interest. Moving Average Crossovers: If you use moving averages, look for bullish crossovers (e.g., the shorter-term moving average crossing above the longer-term moving average) after the breakout. MACD Crossover Above Zero: The MACD line crossing above the signal line and then moving above the zero line would indicate increasing bullish momentum. RSI Above 50: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving above the 50 level can confirm increasing bullish strength. How Fundamentals Might Impact This Technical Analysis While your analysis is primarily technical, it's crucial to be aware of how fundamental factors could influence GBP/NZD: Central Bank Policies: Monetary policy decisions and statements from the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) are major drivers for these currencies. Any unexpected hawkish or dovish signals could significantly impact the exchange rate. Economic Data: Key economic data releases from the UK (e.g., inflation, employment, GDP) and New Zealand (e.g., inflation, employment, trade balance) can lead to volatility and potentially override technical patterns. Global Risk Sentiment: As mentioned earlier, GBP/NZD can be influenced by global risk appetite. During times of risk aversion, safe-haven currencies might strengthen, potentially impacting this pair. Geopolitical Events: Unexpected geopolitical events can also introduce volatility and affect currency valuations. Recommendation: Before taking the trade, it's wise to check the economic calendar for any high-impact news releases scheduled for the British Pound and the New Zealand Dollar in the coming days. Be prepared for potential volatility around these events. Let me know if you have any more questions or would like to explore any of these points in more detail! i would love to hear back from you your thoughts on this pair
Long
by TONYMONTANA87
Silver’s Bullish Transition: $50 and BeyondSilver OANDA:XAGUSD FX:XAGUSD TVC:SILVER COMEX:SI1! has completed a multi-decade accumulation phase and is now entering a global bullish supercycle, capable of reshaping the balance of power in the precious metals market. Below is the current view across timeframes, structures, and macro drivers. 🔭 Global Perspective Since the early 1980s, silver has been moving within a broad corrective structure, with two major corrections: from 1980 to 1995 and from 2011 to 2020. Now there is strong evidence that a transition phase — wave (III) — has begun, which could potentially break historic highs and push prices toward $100+. Upon reaching the $50 mark, the chart would complete a classic institutional "cup with handle" pattern, similar to gold, potentially triggering an exponential rally. ⏱ Mid-Term View Since August 2022, silver has been developing an impulsive structure. The deep correction we observed in April 2025 likely represents wave C of a flat correction, completing wave (4) of the current impulse. Currently, silver is building wave (5). Within it, the first subwave (i) has either been completed or is still forming. In the coming weeks or month, a local pullback is possible, followed by a continuation of the bullish rally, with a medium-term target in the $42–50 range. 🌐 Macro and Fundamental Drivers of Growth: 📈 Inflation and declining real interest rates — Silver, like gold, acts as an inflation hedge, especially during periods of monetary easing. 💵 Weakening U.S. Dollar — A falling DXY and potential QE strengthen demand for silver. ⚙️ Growing industrial demand — Silver is essential for solar panels, electronics, electric vehicles, and the medical sector. 🌍 Green energy transition — Silver is a critical material for photovoltaic technologies and the expansion of renewable energy. 📉 Structural supply deficit — Declining mining investment and ore grades are forming a long-term supply shortage. 🏦 Increasing institutional interest — ETFs, hedge funds, and banks are expanding their exposure to silver, boosting liquidity and long-term price support. ⚠️ Geopolitical risks — Metals act as a safe-haven amid rising global instability and de-dollarization trends. 📌 The supercycle is intact — we are likely within wave (III). Short-term corrections are possible, but the overall structure remains bullish. Medium-term target — $42–50. The full cycle may take years, but the directional bias is clear. Fundamental factors strongly support the technical outlook, pointing to significant long-term upside.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by shakatrade1_618
5
Fresnillo Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # Fresnillo Stock Quote - Double Formation * (EMA Settings)) & Start Of (Diagonal) | Completed Survey - Lower Band Consecutive * (Uptrend Argument)) On Midrange Area | Subdivision 1 - Triple Formation * Wave Feature + Ongoing Entry At Wave (3)) | Subdivision 2 - Retest Area * (TP1) | Subdivision 3 * Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition - (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Indexed To 100 - Position On A 1.5RR * Stop Loss At 150.00 GBP * Entry At 165.00 GBP * Take Profit At 185.00 GBP * (Uptrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation * Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area)) Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Buy
PEPPERSTONE:FRES.GBLong
by TradePolitics
Daily Analysis: 29‑04‑2025 Spot gold clSpot gold closed yesterday with a 0.7% gain at 3344, but started today with a nearly 1% loss. The easing of trade tensions continues to support risk appetite to some extent. Statements related to these developments, along with key U.S. economic data set to be released today, could influence gold's price action. Technically, if the support level at 3300 is broken, gold may target 3260. On the upside, the next resistance levels are seen at 3340 and 3370.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by byyahyagold
🔝XRP +200%💥What Is XRP? XRP is a digital asset built for payments. It is the native digital asset on the XRP Ledger—an open-source, permissionless and decentralized blockchain technology that can settle transactions in 3-5 seconds. XRP can be sent directly without needing a central intermediary, making it a convenient instrument in bridging two different currencies quickly and efficiently. How Is XRP Used? Faster, less costly and more scalable than any other digital asset, XRP and the XRP Ledger are used to power innovative technology across the payments space. Ripple is focused on building technology to help unleash new utility for XRP and transform global payments. Third parties are also pursuing other XRP-related use cases.
Long
by MiguelFTCurado
7
Brent Oil Update: Correction Completion and Growth OutlookUpdated the medium-term structure on Brent oil TVC:UKOIL FX:UKOIL ICEEUR:BRN1! NYMEX:CY1! Currently, I see several scenarios for market development: 🥇 Base Scenario: Correction unfolds as an A-B-C pattern, where wave C took the form of an Expanding Ending Diagonal (eED). Although the diagonal does not look perfect geometrically, in terms of Fibonacci ratios, it is almost textbook: Each subsequent wave is 1.618 the length of the previous one. The price tested the monthly imbalance and retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level, increasing the probability of correction completion. Thus, I believe the correction may have already completed, and we might soon see recovery and growth in oil prices. However, a minor retest or small deviation of the lows remains acceptable within this scenario. 🥈 Scenario 2: Alternative wave count in the form of a Double Zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y). Here too, the correction may have ended or may complete with a minor new low around the key support zone. 🥉 Other Alternatives: Wave A — impulse, B — triangle, C — contracting Ending Diagonal (cED). Alternatively, another expanding diagonal (eED) could finalize the downtrend. ⚡ Fundamental Drivers Supporting Oil Recovery: Expected monetary policy easing in the U.S.: Potential rate cuts and M2 money supply growth should boost demand for commodities. Stimulus programs expected in China and India: Industrial demand recovery from the world's largest consumers. Global demand remains resilient: Asia, emerging markets, and India's growing economy continue to support oil consumption, despite local slowdowns in Europe and the U.S. Ongoing geopolitical risks: Continued tensions in the Middle East and risks of supply disruptions could support oil prices. OPEC+ production cuts: The extended supply cuts maintain a structural shortage in the market. Historically low commercial oil inventories in the U.S. and Europe: A resurgence in demand could accelerate price recovery. 📍 Key Levels: Support zone: 58–65 USD. Maximum acceptable downside across all scenarios: 50–55 USD — I do not expect a dramatic drop below this zone. 🛡 Important: The current phase is a transition: either the confirmation of a bottom formation or a final controlled retest of the 58–65 zone before recovery. In all scenarios, I expect Brent oil to have either completed or to be completing its correction. The base growth scenario remains a priority, watching closely for confirmation signals in the 58–65 USD range.
TVC:UKOILLong
by shakatrade1_618
GOLD → Consolidation ahead of news. What to expect?FX:XAUUSD is consolidating. Focus on 3370 - 3269. Economic data is expected tomorrow, and gold is likely to trade within the consolidation range for several days. Optimism about US trade talks with key partners boosted risk appetite and supported the dollar. The US Treasury Secretary reported progress with India, while President Trump softened his rhetoric on China, which also strengthened the dollar. At the same time, traders took a wait-and-see stance ahead of the release of US GDP data for the first quarter. If the figures turn out to be weak, gold could rise sharply as a safe-haven asset. Thus, the gold market remains sensitive to trade news and macro data, especially against the backdrop of rebalancing at the end of April. At the moment, as part of the current momentum and correction, I expect prices to recover from the 0.5 - 0.7 Fibonacci zone. Gold may test 3323-3325 before resuming its correction within the consolidation. Resistance levels: 3323, 3352, 3370 Support levels: 3290, 3270 Traders are waiting for a resolution in the tariff dispute as well as economic data due tomorrow. However, while the price is consolidating, I expect a rebound from support. BUT! If the price continues to squeeze towards any boundary, with priority to support, then the chances of a breakout from the consolidation base may increase. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSD
by RLinda
13
Analysis of the latest gold market trend on April 29: 1. Current market structure: wide range of fluctuations, direction to be broken Key range: 3260-3338 (recently tested the upper and lower edges many times, no effective breakthrough). Fierce long-short game: 3260-3270 (multiple bottoming rebounds, strong support area). 3336-3340 (recent high resistance, breakthrough opens up the upward space). 3370 (mid-term long-short boundary, head and shoulders right shoulder pressure). 2. Technical signal analysis 4-hour chart shock pattern: If it stands firm at 3336 → it may continue to rebound and test 3352-3370. If it falls back under pressure at 3336 → look down to 3278-3260, and if it falls below, it will open the downward space to 3225-3200. Key patterns: Head and shoulders top prototype: If the right shoulder is formed at 3370, the risk of medium-term shorting will increase. Fibonacci support: 3225 (50% retracement), 3200 (psychological barrier). 3. Today's operation strategy (Use 3336 as the dividing line, flexibly switch between long and short positions) Short opportunity (main idea) Entry conditions: Price stagnation at 3336-3340 (such as reversal signals such as long upper shadow and engulfment on the K-line). Target: 3278 → 3265-3260 (add positions after breaking through to see 3225). Stop loss: above 3352 (to prevent false breakthroughs). Bull opportunity (auxiliary idea) Entry conditions: Retracing to 3270-3260 and stabilizing (quick rebound or lower shadow confirmation). Target: 3336 → 3352 (reduce position after breakthrough). Stop loss: below 3255 (strict risk control). 4. Key risk reminder Fake breakthrough risk: The recent volatility is drastic, and it is necessary to observe whether the breakthrough of 3336 and 3260 is accompanied by large volume. The dollar and the news: Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical situations may cause sudden fluctuations. 5. Summary Volatile market → Sell high and buy low, strictly stop loss. Breakthrough strategy: Break above 3336 → Go long on the retracement, look at 3370. Break below 3260 → Go short on the rebound, look at 3225-3200.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Isabella_Sophiad
NZDCHF → The global bearish trend may continueFX:NZDCHF has been within a local upward wedge pattern for a long time. A breakout of support could trigger a continuation of the downtrend. After breaking through the wedge support, the currency pair is one step away from the start of the realization. The focus is on consolidation at 0.4982 - 0.4919. A breakout of support could trigger a decline in the currency pair amid a weakening NZD and a rising dollar index, which overall creates a negative backdrop for the pair. A retest of the previously broken boundary of the figure or resistance at 0.4953 is possible before the decline continues, but a consolidation of the price below 0.4918 will be a good signal for the start of the movement. Resistance levels: 0.4953, 0.4981 Support levels: 0.4918, 0.4872 Trend pressure plays an important role, as does the fact that the price is coming out of a wedge consolidation. The breakout is directed towards the main trend, and price consolidation below the key support will only confirm this. Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
6
MACD says a little higher for a little longerAs per the individual stocks I cover that have not yet reached their ideal retracement areas I am looking for the SPX to get higher into my target box. In any event it's reasonable for me to say we're in a B wave and therefore our pattern can develop into something more complex. Nonetheless, I am mainly looking for MACD to reach the zero line at the very minimum. The take-a-way from this update is I am looking slightly higher in the markets for slightly longer...before our minor C wave takes hold of the market. Best to all. Chris
CBOE:SPX
by maikisch
EFERT PROBABLY IN WAVE '' 3 '' OR " C " - LONGEFERT is most probably in wave 3 or C of a higher degree wave 4 or A, if our wave count is correct then wave 3 or C is almost ending and prices should take support from 165-160 range level. Alternately prices can go toward our main buy zone directly i.e. 160-140 range in which the prices might reach 145-140 level easily but our preferred setup suggests that prices will take support around 165-160 range bouncing of the yellow trendline. We will take a small position at 165-160 level and if prices goes further down we will add more at 145-140 level, based upon our little knowledge we find EFERT fundamentally strong and reasonable at prices around 160-140 but of course cheaper is always better. If our wave count is correct then we can make around 12% to 21% on this trade. Trade setup: Entry price: 165-160 Stop loss: we will update stop loss once prices start to rise from our buy zone Targets: T1: 185-195 Let see how this plays, Good Luck! Disclaimer: The information presented in this wave analysis is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It does not constitute financial or trading advice, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.
PSX:EFERTLong
by KayJay