US Debt to GDP vs. 10 Year Treasury Note YieldSimply showing trend changes in long term inflation / interest rates.
Government bonds
Never disregard those weekly & monthly closeSTHOSE LONG TERM TRENDS ARE IMPORTANT.
Remember how the 10 & 30 Yr #yield BROKE daily trends?
Well, they are both still in play, for TVC:TNX it is in better shape.
Let's see how they close.
30 Yr struggling a bit more to recover that close under the trend.
#mortgage rates have also fallen decently.
BondsUS10Y breaking support. Good entry on bond etf's. Only picking up a small amount to get in the door. ZROZ, EDV, and TLT.
UK Bond Next StepsThe rectangles are potential zones of support/resistance. They also indicate potential tendencies of the sentiment of the market through the pairs of similar color and their relative position (going up or going down). Icons are relative price predictions in time, similar to targets that can be hit. Around the marked time stamps potential pivot points or exceptional events can occur.
This is a project similar to previous ones (Matrix Style) and is also looking at candlestick patterns near the shapes, rebounds or bounces with candlestick shadows, or small coincidences in the price action relative to the elements in the snapshot. This is for the swing trading enthusiasts that seek to maximize gain and minimize risk. For better understanding the general context and approach, the linked idea with previous results can be analyzed.
Always trade with a plan, manage risk, asses all probabilities, and may the force of profits be with you!
EU 30Y Bond Yield to extend further into 2008 high in 2024Economic
Policy needs to remain restrictive or should tighten further, until clear signs of easing inflationary conditions are available.
Technicals
Favor: Strong yearly candle
Favor: Strong M BiMS
Favor: M BiMS after ATL
Favor: Multiple BSL Levels higher
Currently at 10Y High
Expectation
Downside Retracement Targets (careful Short Term)
1 - 2.057% (Y SIBI Inverted) - 95% Certainty
2 - 1.625% (Target (already traded to)) - 75% Certainty
3 - 1.330% (MT Recent Upswing based on Y H to L) - 65% Certainty
4 - 1.149% (MT Recent Upswing based on Y Bodies) - 55% Certainty
5 - 1% (Beginning of Grind upwards) - 25% Certainty
Upside Targets (After Downside)
1 - 3.160% - Y 2023 High - 95% Certainty
2 - 4.915% - 85% Certainty
3 - 5.738% ( Fib 1.618 Extension) - 65% Certainty
4 - 6.258% (23Y High) - 35% Certainty
US10Y Is this the end of Bond Yields' 3.5 year run?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is pulling-back towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and bottom of the Rising Wedge. The pattern is getting too tight and the squeeze will inevitably result in a break-out and new trend/ pattern.
If the Rising Wedge breaks downwards, it will mean the end of the yield's +3.5 year bullish run and will have a high impact both on stocks and Gold. In fact there are high probabilities of that happening as a similar Rising Wedge broke to the downside at the end of 2018.
If that gets materialized, then the first attempt should be on the 3.300% Support 1 level, before the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) gets closer for the test of its long-term Support status.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
US10 Y forecastIf you believe the all important 10Y yield telegraphs the markets, then pay attention to this chart...I am fairly certain this path will materialize...mid to late 2024 we should see a signifant drop in yields...which should pump markets...and push inflation down. This of course is timed perfectly for the 2024 U.S. presidential elections...coincidence? LOL!
US 10Y TREASURY: Powell and market on opposite sidesFed Chair Powell is speaking, but the market is not listening. Powell was speaking on Friday at Spelman College in Atlanta, noting once again that the current policy might not be restrictive enough, meaning that further rate hikes are possible in case that inflation remains persistent. However, a strong economic output of 5.2% for Q3 and inflation figures which are clearly oriented toward the downside, made the market react quite opposite to Powell`s notes. Almost all assets, including Bitcoin gained during the previous week. Treasury bonds strongly gained during the week, pushing the yields lower.
The 10Y Treasury yields continued with their down trend, starting the week around 4.4% level and ending it at 4.197%. This is more than a clear indication that the market is currently strongly set on rate cuts in the coming period. In case that market perceives that the rate cuts might be higher in 2024, then the 10Y Treasury yields might easily reach the level of 4.0% by the end of this year. Still, for the week ahead, it could be expected that the level of 4.2% is to be tested, with a decreased probability for a reversal toward 4.4% level.
us10YRegarding the ten-year rate, we must say, the first important point that can be seen is in the green box and then the green lines, the resistance formed is also indicated by the red box. We will be in these ranges for a long period.
US10Y Areas to look out forUS10Y has just recently broken a major support with a retest. This would indicate bearish sentiment targetting next S/R zones below with daily MAs.
EUBUND 2D ChartedCurrently trading inside the resistance zone, these are the areas I'd look at next.
2 year Treasury monthly with Housing price indexContinuation of 2 year dictating (foreshadowing) the business cycle with housing prices added for reference. MACD doing the heavy lifting.
Big Bearish Bat in Yields Complimenting the TLT forecast:
Bat pattern in the 10 year yields. Norms of this pattern is to be super strong into the end, have massive attention and almost everyone expecting the move to continue.
Bats often both top and break with news.
Over the last days I've been strongly suggesting to real life friends they dump risk assets and buy bonds.
Back to long bias on yields. Correction was nicely signalled by a bat pattern.
We've now reached the 76 support level.
Unless we break the 76 my bias is now towards 6%.
Update to
