Bitcoin Analysis | Is 2026 the Crypto Bear Market Year? Hello traders, hope you’re all doing great!
Today I want to take a monthly look at Bitcoin and break down where we might be heading in the bigger picture.
🔹 The Halving & the Big Picture
First, let’s talk about Bitcoin Halving on higher timeframes.
In simple terms, halving cuts miners’ rewards in half. That means Bitcoin’s price needs to stay high enough for mining to remain profitable.
Based on research, the breakeven zone for miners is roughly $45,000–$50,000.
In crypto, moves are usually more aggressive, so personally I consider $40,000 as a maximum downside target in a worst-case scenario.
⚠️ Important note:
These numbers are not guaranteed. That’s exactly why risk management is critical—so a wrong scenario never kicks us out of the market.
In the worst case, I see around a 60% probability of a major bearish leg if certain levels break.
🚨 Bearish Warning Levels
These levels would act as serious danger signals:
82,000
60,000
If Bitcoin breaks and daily closes below these levels, we could realistically head toward the miners’ breakeven zone ($45k–$50k).
And honestly? If we ever reach that area, I’ll personally start accumulating Bitcoin step by step.
👉 For now though, as long as price is above $82,000, this bearish scenario remains low probability.
🔼 What Most Traders Are Waiting For
From what I see, many traders are expecting one more bullish leg in Bitcoin—ride it up, then exit the market.
For that bullish scenario, one level matters the most:
$93,000
A break and consolidation above $93k could trigger:
A move toward $100,000
Or even a retest of the previous ATH around $120,000
That’s a solid opportunity—especially if BTC moves up while dominance drops.
🌊 Bitcoin Dominance = Altcoin Opportunity
Before you go all-in on Bitcoin, make sure you understand BTC Dominance (BTC.D).
📈 BTC up + 📉 Dominance down → Altcoin Season
In that case, alts can outperform Bitcoin hard
If you’re newer to the market, stick with high-cap alts like ETH.
More experienced traders can look deeper into strong setups.
✅ Final Thoughts
Below $82k → caution, macro risk increases
Above $93k → potential final bullish leg
BTC.D matters more than ever
Risk management is non-negotiable
Don’t miss the daily analyses, where I share my real-time triggers and how I manage positions live.
Trade smart, stay patient, and stay profitable 🚀💙
