GBPUSD H1 Intraday OutlookGBPUSD H1 Intraday Outlook: Weak High In Play, Expect a Pullback Before Continuation
GBPUSD is still trading in a bullish market structure on the 1H chart after a clear CHoCH → BOS sequence and a strong impulsive leg to the recent top. Price is now compressing below a weak high (liquidity sitting above), while the most recent candles show distribution/rotation back into the mid-range. This is the type of environment where the market often sweeps liquidity first, then chooses direction with momentum.
If you trade intraday, today is about two things:
Respecting the higher-timeframe bullish structure
Not buying the top—waiting for Fibonacci + support confluence
1H Structure Read (Price Action + Trendline)
The green rising trendline (impulse leg) confirms bullish control as long as pullbacks remain corrective.
The current consolidation under the top suggests buyers are pausing, not necessarily reversing.
The weak high zone is a magnet. If it gets swept with strong bullish candles, continuation becomes the higher-probability path.
Key Support & Resistance Levels (From the Chart)
Resistance (sell-side liquidity target above)
1.3528 – 1.3540: current weak high / supply cap
1.3560 – 1.3580: next expansion area if breakout runs
Support (where dip buys become attractive)
1.3490 – 1.3485: intraday pivot (current area)
1.3468 – 1.3447: main pullback support (best “decision zone”)
1.3427 – 1.3397: deeper retracement support (if momentum flips)
1.3360 – 1.3340: major demand base (last defense of bullish leg)
Fibonacci Map (Swing Low → Swing High)
Using the latest impulsive swing, the retracement levels line up cleanly with your marked zones:
0.236: 1.34937 (current price area = shallow pullback)
0.382: 1.34682 (first high-probability dip-buy level)
0.50: 1.34475 (mid retrace, often the “true support” in trends)
0.618: 1.34269 (last bullish pullback before structure weakens)
0.786: 1.33975 (deep retrace, caution zone)
This is why buying randomly here is risky: the best R:R usually appears at 0.382–0.50, not at 0.236.
EMA + RSI Filters (Simple, Effective)
Even if you don’t plot them, use these rules for confirmation:
Bullish filter: price holds above EMA50 (H1) and RSI stays above 50 during pullbacks → trend continuation bias.
Bearish warning: sustained closes below EMA50 and RSI slipping below 45 → higher chance of deeper retracement to 1.3427 and 1.3397.
Intraday Trading Strategies (Clean Plans)
Strategy A: Pullback Buy (Highest Probability If Structure Holds)
Entry zone: 1.3468 – 1.3447 (Fib 0.382–0.50 + support)
Confirmation: bullish rejection candle / strong wick + close back above the zone
Stop-loss: below 1.3426 (or below the last H1 swing low inside the zone)
Targets:
TP1: 1.3495 – 1.3505
TP2: 1.3528 – 1.3540
TP3: 1.3560 – 1.3580 (only if breakout candles expand)
Best use: when price pulls back gently (corrective), not when it is dumping impulsively.
Strategy B: Breakout Continuation (Only With Strong Candles)
Trigger: clean break and hold above 1.3540 with strong bodies (no long upper wicks)
Entry: retest of 1.3530–1.3540 as support
Stop-loss: back below 1.3520
Targets: 1.3560 → 1.3580
Avoid chasing if breakout is thin or RSI is diverging.
Strategy C: Breakdown Short (If Support Fails)
If price closes below 1.3447 and retests it as resistance:
Entry: sell on retest failure
Stop-loss: above 1.3468
Targets:
TP1: 1.3427
TP2: 1.3397
TP3: 1.3360 – 1.3340 (major demand)
This is the plan if the market decides to rebalance deeper before any new high.
What To Watch Today
Reactions at 1.3468–1.3447 decide whether this is a healthy pullback or a deeper reset.
A sweep of the weak high with rejection can still snap back to support before the real move.
Strong bullish continuation requires clean holds, not just a wick above resistance.
Risk Note
This is technical analysis for educational purposes, not financial advice. Intraday volatility can spike unexpectedly, so keep risk fixed per trade, wait for confirmation at key levels, and avoid overtrading in the middle of the range.
