Silver - Long Term Breakout ! Go Long !📈 Silver (XAGUSD) – Long-Term Breakout Trade Idea
Silver is pressing against a major historical resistance zone, and price action suggests a structural breakout rather than a short-term spike.
On the monthly timeframe, XAGUSD has completed a long accumulation phase and is now attempting to expand higher with momentum. The current structure favors asymmetric upside if price holds above the breakout level.
Trade Plan
Bias: Long
Entry: Current / pullback above ~68.8
Stop Loss: ~35.4 (below long-term structure)
Target: 600+ (macro expansion scenario)
Risk–Reward: ~17R
This setup is not about short-term noise — it’s a macro positioning trade aligned with:
Long-term inflation hedging
Precious metals strength
Historical silver volatility expansions after consolidations
⚠️ This is a high-timeframe idea, suitable for investors and position traders who understand volatility and risk management.
Always manage risk responsibly.
Futures market
YM | Week 52 | 1hr chartT.A explained -
BackSide (BS)
FrontSide (FS)
Inverse BS (Inv.BS)
Inverse FS (Inv.FS)
BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines.
The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines.
Monthly timeframe is color pink
weekly grey
daily is red
4hr is orange
1hr is yellow
15min is blue
5min is green if they are shown.
strength favors the higher timeframe.
2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
GOLD NEWYORK PERSPECTIVE AND POTENTIAL SELL ZONE Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin aurum) and atomic number 79, classified as a dense, soft, malleable, and ductile transition metal known for its lustrous yellow color.
Physical Properties
Gold boasts exceptional conductivity for electricity and heat (third after silver and copper), a density of 19.3 g/cm³, melting point of 1,064°C (1,947°F), and boiling point of 2,856°C. It resists corrosion and tarnish due to chemical inertness, allowing a single gram to be stretched into a 2.4 km wire or hammered into a 1 m² sheet.
Periodic Table Position
Gold resides in Group 11 (coinage metals), Period 6 of the d-block, with electron configuration 4f¹⁴ 5d¹⁰ 6s¹ and common oxidation states +1 and +3. As a noble metal, it occurs native in nature and forms alloys like electrum historically..
Gold holds Tier 1 asset status for banks under Basel III regulations due to its zero-risk weighting, exceptional stability, and liquidity as physical bullion.
Basel III Classification
Basel III, implemented post-2008 crisis, categorizes allocated physical gold as a Tier 1 capital asset with 0% risk weight, equivalent to cash or top sovereign bonds, allowing banks to count it fully toward core reserves without deductions. This elevates gold from prior Tier 3 status, strengthening balance sheets amid volatility.
Strategic Benefits
Banks leverage gold for capital adequacy ratios, liquidity coverage, and loss absorption, reducing reliance on fiat assets while hedging inflation and currency risks. Central banks hold vast reserves (over 36,000 tonnes globally), signaling trust in its enduring value as "money again."
WATCH 4436-4440 AND 4444.
MY SELL ZONE BASED ON STRATEGY IS 4465-4468-4470
GOODLUCK.
SILVER Will Go Lower! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for SILVER.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 6,912.5.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 6,768.7 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
XAUUSD made new ATH! Time to short it?Gold (XAUUSD) made new All Time Highs (ATH) today, rising consistently within a Channel Up pattern since the November 18 Low.
On the short-term, a Sell Signal has emerged as not only is the price near the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the pattern, but also the 1H RSI hit the 83.00 Resistance. The latter has been the point where the price topped on the previous two Higher Highs and pulled-back by -2.30% both times.
As a result, we expect the Channel Up to initiate a similar Bearish Leg, targeting 4330 (-2.30%).
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Gold – 2025 Annual High Zone Reached (Under Evaluation)Gold – 2025 Annual High Zone Reached (Under Evaluation)
Date:
December 22, 2025
Context:
Gold has now reached the previously monitored 4423 – 4426 zone, with price printing 4426 during today’s session.
This post documents the initial interaction with the projected annual high zone, rather than declaring final confirmation.
Key Observation:
The 4426 level currently represents the highest price observed in 2025.
However, whether this level becomes the confirmed annual high will depend on subsequent price behavior and year-end acceptance or rejection.
Expectation:
If price fails to sustain above this zone, it may act as an exhaustion area following the yearly expansion phase.
Acceptance above this range would require reassessment of the annual structure.
Notes:
This outlook is scenario-based and intended strictly for long-term analytical documentation.
It does not constitute financial advice or a buy/sell signal.
Prepared by:
ShailoGold – Gold Market Analyst
#GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #MacroAnalysis #YearlyOutlook #ShailoGold
GOLD BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 4,422.84
Target Level: 4,368.45
Stop Loss: 4,459.03
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Gold surges to $4,400! The battle between bulls and bears behindGold surges to $4,400! The battle between bulls and bears behind this historic high 🚀 In early European trading on Monday, gold prices (XAU/USD) continued their strong upward trend, surging to near $4,400 and setting a new all-time record! At this moment, market sentiment is a mix of excitement and caution—gold prices seem to have taken flight, but the winds at such heights also appear to be picking up.
🔥 Core driver of the rise: Rising expectations of interest rate cuts
Recent US inflation and employment data have both shown signs of cooling, leading to increasingly strong market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Lower interest rates mean a lower opportunity cost for holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold—undoubtedly the most solid underlying logic for this round of gold's strength.
The dovish signals of a shift in monetary policy have become the brightest "beam of light" in the gold market.
🌍 Safe-haven demand continues to intensify
Besides monetary policy, geopolitical tensions are also continuously pushing up gold prices:
Tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved
US-Venezuela relations escalate. Amidst uncertainty, funds seek safe havens, and gold, as a millennium-old store of value, is once again shining with its safe-haven appeal.
⚠️ Short-Term Risks: Profit-Taking and Data Tests
The market is not unconditionally bullish:
With the long holiday approaching, trading sentiment is becoming more cautious.
Some bulls are choosing to take profits at higher levels, which may limit short-term upside potential.
Key Focus Today:
US Chicago Fed National Activity Index
US Q3 GDP Preliminary Estimate (potentially significantly impacting interest rate expectations and gold price volatility)
📈 Technical Analysis: The trend remains strong, but volatility should be monitored.
From the 4-hour chart:
Gold prices are firmly above the 100-period moving average, maintaining a healthy bullish pattern.
Bollinger Bands are widening, volatility is rising, and the trend is clear.
RSI is in a slightly bullish zone but not extremely overbought, indicating the risk of chasing highs.
Key Levels:
Support: $4330 (A break below could trigger a technical pullback)
Resistance: $4380 (A hold above this level could open up further upside potential)
Caution: False breakouts and high-level consolidation near the $4400 level.
💡 Editor's Viewpoint: Gold's recent record high is a typical result of the convergence of interest rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand, reflecting the market's high sensitivity to the macroeconomic environment. As long as the fundamental drivers remain unchanged, the medium-term bullish trend remains intact. However, volatility is bound to amplify at these high levels, and the risk of a short-term pullback is accumulating—in this golden wave, we must embrace the trend with courage, but also maintain a calm and observant mindset.
Trends are our friend, but we must not forget risk control; the gold may be dazzling, but we must proceed with caution.
✨ Interested in the gold and forex markets? Want more real-time analysis and strategy insights?
👉 Follow us to understand the logic behind the volatility; you're not alone on your trading journey! 📊💬
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for December 22nd.Gold prices rose steadily after the market opened today, driven by safe-haven demand over the weekend, demonstrating its strength and reinforcing short-term bullish expectations. The technical structure is bullish, with MACD/KDJ indicators showing ample upward momentum. The price is supported by the MA5 moving average, with pullback lows gradually moving higher. The price is currently within an upward Bollinger Band channel. Daily support levels to watch are 4406/4400. Avoid speculating on the highest point of the rise.
On the 1-hour chart, after a strong upward move, the 4400 level is a key level for short-term correction. With the Bollinger Bands trending upwards and the price breaking through the recent high consolidation range, the trend is likely to continue. However, be aware of the risk of a pullback. For short-term trading, wait for a pullback and the formation of a bottoming pattern before entering.
Trading Strategy:
BUY: 4406~4400
If it breaks below 4395, buy plan ↓
BUY: 4375near
BUY: 4365near
More Analysis →
Gold Market Morphology – Structural Context (Not a Trade Setup)This chart is part of MarketOMorph v1.0, a structural framework focused on market behaviour, not predictions.
Key points:
• Higher-timeframe structure defines context
• Lower timeframes validate behaviour
• Elliott Wave is used for structure validation only
This is not:
A trade idea
A buy/sell signal
A price target projection
Use this chart to understand where the market is, not what to trade.
Framework Orientation:
Top-down | Contextual | Probabilistic | Not Predictive
Silver Market Morphology – Structural Context (Not a Trade SetupThis chart is part of MarketOMorph v1.0, a structural framework focused on market behaviour, not predictions.
Key points:
• Higher-timeframe structure defines context
• Lower timeframes validate behaviour
• Elliott Wave is used for structure validation only
This is not:
A trade idea
A buy/sell signal
A price target projection
Use this chart to understand where the market is, not what to trade.
Framework Orientation:
Top-down | Contextual | Probabilistic | Not Predictive
XAU/USD | Gold Breaks Above $4400 and Prints a New ATH!By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that after the analysis we posted on Thursday, price first had a small correction and then resumed its move higher. With the market reopening today, gold showed strong momentum and finally broke above $4400, printing a new all-time high. Price reached as high as $4420, then pulled back slightly and is now trading around $4409.
This strong rally has created a liquidity gap, which I expect to be filled in the short term. Before that happens, we may first see another push higher toward the $4440 to $4444 area. After this potential final push, a corrective move is likely. The downside targets I am watching are $4389, $4374, $4358, and the $4335 to $4350 zone. Make sure to closely monitor price reaction around these levels. This analysis will be updated, and total performance so far is already over 1300 pips.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
West Texas Oil (WTI)Those who follow my work know that we have shorted oil multiple times and successfully built profits.
In my previous post, I clearly mentioned the final short target, and price reached it perfectly.
🔁 Now the situation has changed, and I see a buying opportunity on the
chart.
We are traders —
we build profits from opportunities, not from bias.
I entered a long position at lower levels, and in my view, this area still offers a valid buying opportunity.
As I always say:
I’m not a political analyst, not an oil analyst, and not an OPEC member.
I’m simply a trader who follows a clear rule:
Price reaches my level and gives a signal → I buy
The level breaks and gives the opposite signal → I sell
📉📈 I don’t care whether the market goes up or down.
There is no bias here.
An opportunity is identified, execution is done,
and the rest is up to the market.
❗️Never try to stand in front of the market
and tell it where it should go because of a trendline
or an indicator.
The market moves ruthlessly in its own direction —
and if you fight it, you’ll only be left watching.
🎯 Real trading skill is finding a way to move with the market,
even when it doesn’t agree with you.
🌹 Stay safe & stay profitable






















