US100 London session US100 M15
Price is trading in a range (chop) between PDH and intraday support.
VWAP sits in the middle → no clear directional bias.
Longs: only on acceptance above PDH.
Shorts: on PDH rejection or VWAP breakdown.
Middle of the range = no trade.
Level breaks should be confirmed on a lower timeframe (3–5 min).
Look for retests of key levels after the break.
Once acceptance is confirmed, active position management is key.
Market indices
NAS100 H4 | Bullish Reversal SetupMomentum: Bearish
The price could fall to the buy entry, which is a pullback support.
Buy entry: 24,898.06
Pullback support
Stop loss: 24,644.89
Swing low support
Take profit: 25,451.19
Pllback resistance
Slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
High Risk Investment Warning
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JPN225 H4 | Bearish Reversal Off 50% Fib ResistanceMomentum: Bearish
The price has rejected off the sell entry, which is an overlap resistance and also aligns with the 50% Fib retracement, which adds significant strength to this level.
Sell entry: 49,929.37
Overlap resistance
50% Fib retracement
Stop loss: 50,417.72
Pullback resistance
Slightly above the 61.8% Fib retracement
Take profit: 48,639.37
Multi swing low suport
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
KSE 100 INDEX📊 MARKET UPDATE – KSE 100 INDEX
As discussed in the last Zoom session, the market is positive and moving toward the 175,000 target.
After our last session, the index retested the previous high, exactly as expected. You may remember I strongly highlighted the risk of FOMO and mentioned that those who missed the initial rally should not worry the market would give another buying opportunity.
Following that retest, the market faced resistance at 172,600 (red horizontal line).
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 172,600
If the market fails to break 172,600, the next nearest support lies at 170,600 (yellow horizontal line).
In that case, please manage risky positions accordingly.
If the market breaks and sustains above 172,600, we could see a strong upside move.
My View:
I believe the market may take a short-term dip, especially as next week is a rollover/conversion week, so volatility is expected.
Once again, for those who missed buying earlier do not FOMO buy. Opportunities will come, and stocks can be picked up at better discounted levels.
The dotted red and green lines on the chart represent the possible market paths from here.
NIFTY at AVWAP support and SHARK PRZ
TF: 15 Minutes
CMP: 25750
It appears that the price has reached the PRZ of Harmonic Shark formation.
Price is also at the developing AVWAP from Sept 2025 lows (25730).
Finally, this is the demand zone where buyers stepped in previously.
As per Harmonic pattern, we should expect 50% retracement of the CD leg.
My take:
Whether or not I take a long trade, I will definitely short at this zone.. Existing shorts to be trailed strictly around here
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered Analyst and this is not a trading advise. Views are personal and for educational purpose only. Please consult your Financial Advisor for any investment decisions. Please consider my views only to get a different perspective (FOR or AGAINST your views). Please don't trade FNO based on my views. If you like my analysis and learnt something from it, please give a BOOST. Feel free to express your thoughts and questions in the comments section.
USDX forms a potential head and shoulders bottom pattern.On the 4-hour chart, USDX has formed a potential head and shoulders bottom pattern. Currently, watch for support around 98.4; a pullback and stabilization there could lead to further upward movement, with resistance levels to watch in the 99.0-99.3 area.
Why We Think Retail Trader Exit Their Position | Smart MoneyThis video explains why retail traders often exit their positions early, especially on the first candle. The discussion focuses on how early volatility, emotional reactions, lack of structure clarity, and liquidity-driven price behavior can force premature exits. By observing first-candle behavior and market structure, the video highlights common mistakes that lead traders to exit before the market reveals its true intent.
The purpose of this video is to build awareness around early-session price behavior and help understand why retail traders struggle to hold positions—purely from an educational and price-action perspective.
US30 : Bullish Continuation ScenarioUS30 Holding Rising Channel Support – Bullish Continuation Scenario
US30 remains in a well-defined ascending pattern, respecting higher highs and higher lows on the intraday structure. After rejecting the upper boundary, price pulled back in a corrective move and is now finding support near the lower channel trendline.
This reaction suggests that the recent decline is corrective rather than impulsive. As long as price holds above the channel support, the bullish structure remains intact and buyers may step back in.
A continuation higher could open the way toward the highlighted resistance and target zones at 48,331, 48,640, and potentially 48,826, where sellers may reappear.
The support zone of the pattern should push the price up further
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
Nifty is primarily stock-specific at this stage.Last week, Nifty found support at its 50-day moving average level of 25,750, which also coincided with the lower boundary of the linear regression channel.
It managed to remain above the 20-day moving average at 25,950. This suggests that the current uptrend remains intact; however, a bullish move has not yet been confirmed, as broad market participation shows some weakening due to its positioning in the bearish zone.
Given the current lack of clear directional signals, it is advisable to adopt a stock-specific approach and remain flexible in response to market movements. In the absence of clarity, consider the following guidance for this week:
- If the index rises above 26,000, the target levels are 26,300 and 26,500.
- If it falls below 25,950, the target levels are 25,800 and 25,550.
Focus on stocks reaching their monthly highs for this period.
Until the next weekly update, Adieu.
NIFTY 50 – Bearish Structure Developing (30-Min Chart)1. Market Structure Breakdown
Chart highlights a series of lower highs and lower lows—the first and most important signal of a trend reversal.
A. Lower Highs Formation
The trendline connecting recent swing highs is sloping downward.
Each bounce is failing below the previous highs.
Market is losing strength at every upward attempt.
This confirms supply dominance.
2. Key Breakdown Level: 25,900
Chart marks 25,900 as the level where bearish confirmation will be triggered.
3. First Trigger: Break Below 26,000 – 25,950 Zone
Once the price breaks 26,000–25,950, the market is likely to enter:
Fast decline
Strong red candles
Trendline break retests failing.
Summary
Nifty is forming a clean bearish structure with lower highs.
Breakdown confirmation is below 25,900.
After confirmation, market is expected to fall impulsively.
Projected downside target is 25,000 (±50 points).
Short-term pullbacks may occur, but the overall trend will remain bearish until the lower high trendline is broken to the upside.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Markets are subject to risk, and traders should perform their own analysis and use proper risk management before taking any positions.
Two or one leg down to 23850 again
From Thursday's closed around 25 000, looks to me, like the downtrend channel may be maintained, with todays breakout failing. The 4 hourly rose up and was rejected at the 150 sma (pink arrow). So thinking it now will retest the 23850 lows.
I think it will do this in a 2 leg more or less equal measured move down. At an estimate first to ~24350, then less of a rally than the last couple we have had, and more of a slow retrace back to ~24500 - more flag like, then down 23850 ish. Though it could potentially do that in one move on friday. Possible, but a bit of a stretch for one day though, unless some rather dire news happens to coincide tomorrow. The visible range volume profile certainly seems to adequately accommodate a move to 24350, with little problem, while less so to ~24000k in my interpretation, yet, i still feel the price will need to go there as a significant low.
Of interest, it is also setting up to look similar to a period of last months chart - see set of three thin black arrows. If it stays similar this pattern, then that would suggest a one leg down move, like we had then. But that is a less probable scenario i think, barring any particularity bad news event. So this similarity is mentioned more as a point of interest, as it doesnt have a technical basis of which i am aware.
This could all be a load of nonsense of course, and it breaks out back up!
US Dollar: Bearish! Sell The Rip!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Dec 15 - 19th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar
The USD is bearish. I will look for a short term pullback to the -FVG and sell it from there. I expect price will hold from the -FVG and act as resistance.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Jxy japanese yen indexJPY Outlook – Fundamental Bias
JPY is bullish following the Bank of Japan’s rate decision.
The BoJ has officially shifted away from ultra-loose policy and started tightening after decades of near-zero rates. This changes the long-term structure of the yen.
Higher Japanese rates reduce the interest-rate gap versus USD, EUR, and GBP, weakening carry-trade demand and forcing capital to flow back into JPY.
As a result:
Carry trades are being unwound
Yen demand increases
JPY weakness is no longer justified structurally
Market Impact
USDJPY → bearish
EURJPY → bearish
GBPJPY → bearish
AUDJPY / NZDJPY → strongest downside pressure...
Summary.
JPY bullish
Gold = corrective / volatile
US30 = bearish pressure
US100 = strongest downside risk
Key Note Short-term volatility is expected around the announcement, but the overall bias remains JPY bullish as long as the BoJ maintains its tightening stance.
This is a structural shift, not just a one-day reaction.
— Avo.Trades
SPX500 Cup And Handle Forming With Liquidity Target At ATHSPX500 is forming a clear cup and handle structure on the 15min timeframe. Price has completed the rounded base and is now consolidating in the handle, suggesting continuation rather than distribution.
From a market structure perspective, this consolidation appears to be building energy for a push higher. The most logical draw on liquidity sits at the all time highs, where buy side liquidity and higher timeframe inefficiencies remain.
If price continues to respect the handle range and holds above key support, I expect expansion toward ATH to clear resting liquidity and rebalance remaining imbalances. Any short term pullbacks into the handle can be viewed as potential continuation opportunities rather than reversals.
Bias remains bullish while structure holds, with ATH acting as the primary upside objective.
NIKKEI COUNTERINTUITIVE LONG|(Hear Me Out)
✅So the Bank Of Japan is likely to raise rates tomorrow, and so following classical market economics its bad news for the stock market. Rates down, stocks up, rates up, stocks down, thats how it goes right? And it usually does. However, Japanese investors are know to be extremely active in the carry trade market, where they borrow cheaply in Yen and then buy USD and invest outside of Japan to get higher income(this mechanism is well known and is not exclusive to Japan, however Japan is a massive player). So what happens now that the borrowing costs are about to go up? It makes carry trade less profitable and more risky too. While making local investments more attractive. So the money that would have gone to be invested via carry trade might just stay in Japan. And what is the highest yielding asset in japan? The stock market. So the rates increase might favor the Japanese stocks which we can pick up nicely from the demand level.
LONG🚀
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US30 Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
US30 reacts from a well-defined supply cluster after breaking the rising structure. Smart money distribution is evident with displacement lower, suggesting bearish continuation toward the next liquidity pool resting below recent lows.
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Stop Loss: 48,390
Take Profit: 47,573
Entry: 47,971
Time Frame: 5H
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Sell!
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DAX Just confirmed the start of a very strong Bear Cycle.DAX (DE40) has been practically trading sideways since June 2025, a fair range on short-term time-frames but a tight one on long-term ones such as the 1M (monthly) that we are looking at today.
We posted this chart 2 months ago warning of a potential multi-year Top for the market's 16-year Channel Up (this time we view it on 1M instead on 1W) and only last month, it hit its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the April low.
We don't need to mention again the specifics of this pattern's cyclical behavior, such as why Phase 3 seems to have already topped due to hitting the 1.618 and 2.236 Fibonacci extensions on two different measurements. Those where analyzed extensively on the previous publication.
But what we do want to bring to you is that the 1M RSI has been trading downwards since hitting its 80.00 Resistance, a level that was last tested in 2007! This is a clear Bearish Divergence on a wide scale and couple with the fact that the 1M MACD just completed a Bearish Cross, all the basic conditions for a Cycle Top have been met. As you can see, since the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis, every 1M MACD Bearish Cross was formed on a market Top and signaled an aggressive correction.
As a result, we expect 2026 to be a Bear Cycle, and Phase 4 historically has corrected to at least the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, while also hitting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Our 18800 long-term Target fulfills both conditions. Notice also that the 1M RSI has a 14-year Support trend-line as well at 39.00. If this gets hit, it is historically the most optimal signal to buy for the long-term regardless of the price the market will be at the moment.
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