DXY Bulls Ready — Can Powell Spark the Rally?📊 DXY Pre-FOMC Outlook
In my previous analysis released on Monday, I expected the Dollar Index to fill the gap around the 98.60 zone and range below the key red line at 99.429.
Now, with less than 8 hours left until the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision, it’s time to take a closer look at tonight’s event and what it could mean for the markets.
From a purely technical perspective — setting the news aside — the Dollar Index looks ready to break through the crucial 100 level and kick off a strong bullish rally.
However, recent political pressure from Trump urging rate cuts, along with visible tension between him and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has created uncertainty. If it weren’t for these conflicting signals, I would’ve confidently expected a clean breakout above 100.
As much as I enjoy trading news-driven events, I’ll likely stay out of the market tonight and observe from the sidelines. The setup is tempting, but the dual narratives make it risky.
That said — if you ask for my final take — I believe the stage is fully set for a bullish dollar and a corresponding drop in gold, EUR, GBP, and other major assets.
Let’s see how it plays out. 👀💥
Market indices
DXY BEARISH TREND 30-JUL 15-JUN 2025There are some major upcoming events that could significantly impact the US dollar index (DXY), including the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the Federal Funds Rate decision. Because of this, I expect the DXY to continue its downward movement until it reaches around 94.5. If it breaks below that level, it’s also possible that it could drop further and reach 89.00.
Currently, the DXY is expected to start its move downward from the 99.20–99.50 range, making a decline from that level quite likely
DXY still in downward channel. Rejection here = BTC rally The DXY is still in a downward sloping channel and trying to break back above the previous 2-year cycle low, but I think will reject here and kick off the next leg of the BTC rally.
Ideally we get a big DXY drop and ultimately break below the 95% level and on down into 'Bitcoin Super Rally Zone'🚀
DOLLAR INDEX DXYThe latest U.S. economic data released on July 30, 2025 shows:
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Actual increase of 104,000 jobs, significantly above the forecast of 77,000. This marks a strong rebound from the previous decline of -23,000 in June and indicates solid labor market momentum, particularly in services sectors like leisure/hospitality, financial activities, and trade/transportation. However, education and health services saw job losses. Wage growth remains steady at 4.4% year-over-year for job-stayers.
Advance GDP q/q Growth: Actual growth came in at 3.0%, beating the forecast of 2.5% and improving sharply from -0.5% previously. This suggests that the economy is expanding robustly in the second quarter
Advance GDP Price Index q/q (Inflation measure): Actual was 2.0%, slightly below the forecast of 2.2%, and down from 3.8% previously, indicating easing inflation pressures .
Interpretation of this data for Federal Reserve policy:
The stronger-than-expected job growth and GDP expansion signal a resilient economy, which may reduce the immediate likelihood of Fed rate cuts, as these indicators support sustained economic momentum.
The slightly softer inflation reading on the GDP Price Index suggests inflation pressures are continuing to moderate, which could offer some flexibility to the Fed.
Overall, the Fed is likely to view this data mix as supportive of a cautious, data-dependent approach, possibly maintaining current rates in the short term without rushing to cut, but monitoring to ensure inflation stays on a downward path.
If the Fed prioritizes strong growth and a resilient labor market, rate hikes or holds are more likely than cuts. If inflation remains subdued, it could permit a gradual easing down the line but probably not immediately.
Let me know if you want a detailed outlook on market reactions to this release or the potential Fed communication following today’s data.
#GOLD
29-07-2025This chart contains my analysis and key observations for today's trading session. All drawings and indicators reflect my current view of the market as of today. The purpose of this publication is to keep a record of my analysis and review it later for learning and improvement. No investment advice is provided.
US500 (S&P): Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trends, colored levels,
and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
Be careful
BEST
MT
Just a bounce off or a real trend reversal?DXY sits on a major support zone. Price often delivers a reflex bounce at strong levels before continuing the prevailing trend, so a quick pop isn’t proof of a new bull run. DXY is closely linked to US real yields (10y TIPS): if real yields roll over as the Fed eases, USD strength likely fades; if real yields stay firm, a durable reversal is more plausible.
This post is for informational/educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy/sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. I may hold positions related to the instruments mentioned.
What will go down VIX or SPX?When SPX pushes fresh highs while the VIX floor makes higher lows, fragility rises.
This post is for informational/educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy/sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. I may hold positions related to the instruments mentioned.
Safe Entry DJIObvious Movement I Guess.
P.High(Previous High) Act As good Support for price to Respect.
Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone:
We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone:
Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle.
Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone.
Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up.
2- How to Buy Stock (safe way):
On 1H TF when Marubozu/Doji Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in.
Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu/Doji Candle, because price will always and always re-test the
US30 DOWN FOR WHILEWe have seen dramatic gain in most of the indices and US30 being one of them, and i have been tracking it for so long and i have come with this idea from my approach. As you can see on my screen i have labeled those levels and reset to mark up the the half cycle with the aid of the TDI divergence, the last push there is the level 3 moving exactly with the divergence which indicates that the bulls are getting weak and bears are about take over and push price to the downside, so am looking to join the bears 🐻to price down for a while.
DXY UPDATE FOR LONG as we forecast a long term this an update
The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday rose by +0.22% and posted a 5-week high. The dollar has carryover support from Monday following the EU-US trade deal that is seen as favoring the US. Also, expectations for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the end of Wednesday's 2-day FOMC meeting are supportive of the dollar. The dollar extended its gains after the US Jun advance goods trade deficit unexpectedly shrank, a supportive factor for Q2 GDP, and after July consumer confidence rose more than expected.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart Analysis – 1H TimeframeUS Dollar Index (DXY) Chart Analysis – 1H Timeframe
This chart shows the **US Dollar Index (DXY)** with key price zones, trendlines, and EMA indicators. Here's a detailed analysis:
**Key Observations:**
* **Price:** Currently trading near **98.41**
* **EMAs:**
* **EMA 7** = 98.373 (short-term trend)
* **EMA 21** = 98.356 (medium-term trend)
* **Trendline:** Uptrend line still intact, acting as dynamic support
* **Volume:** Steady, no strong breakout yet
* **Support Zones:** 98.20 – 98.35
* **Price Structure:** Consolidating above support and EMAs after a pullback from highs
**Bullish Scenario**
* If price **holds above EMAs and the green support zone (98.20–98.35)**
* **Breakout above 98.50** would confirm strength
* Targets:
→ **98.70**
→ **99.00+** if trendline support continues to hold
* EMAs are aligned bullishly (7 above 21) – good sign for continued upward trend
**Bearish Scenario**
* If price **breaks below 98.20 and closes under the trendline**
* Watch for rejection near 98.50 followed by strong red candle
* Downside targets:
→ **97.80**
→ **97.60**
* A breakdown below the ascending trendline = trend shift confirmation
**Conclusion**
* **Bias:** Bullish as long as DXY stays above 98.20 and trendline
* **Invalidation:** A break and close below 98.20 + trendline = bearish shift
Dow Jones Index Analysis (US30 / Dow Jones):🔹 The index broke below a key support zone yesterday and is now consolidating between 44,720 USD and 44,620 USD.
1️⃣ If bullish momentum leads to a break and close above 44,740 USD, the price may retest the 44,970 USD zone.
2️⃣ However, if the price breaks below 44,600 USD and holds, a decline toward 44,350 USD is likely.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is not financial advice. It is recommended to monitor the markets and carefully analyze the data before making any investment decisions.
USNAS100 Correction in Play – Watching 23390 & 23440USNAS100
The price is undergoing a bearish correction while trading below 23440, with downside targets at 23300 and 23295, especially if a 1H candle closes below 23390.
A bullish scenario will be activated if price closes 1H above 23440, opening the path toward 23530 and potentially 23700.
At the moment, the market appears to be correcting toward 23295 before attempting a bullish rebound.
Support Levels: 23300 – 23210 – 23150
Resistance Levels: 23530 – 23700
Unlocking the Power of ORB (Opening Range Breakout)Unlocking the Power of ORB (Opening Range Breakout): A Proven Strategy for Intraday Traders
In the fast-paced world of intraday trading, simplicity and structure can often outperform complexity. One such time-tested strategy is the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) — a method favored by both discretionary and system traders for its clarity and adaptability.
📌 What is ORB (Opening Range Breakout)?
ORB refers to the price range (high and low) formed during the first few minutes (typically 5, 15, or 30) after the market opens. Traders look for a breakout above or below this range, anticipating strong momentum in that direction.
🧠 Why ORB Works
Volume Surge: The opening minutes see high institutional activity, creating genuine demand/supply signals.
Market Psychology: ORB captures trader sentiment as news digests overnight and is priced in at the open.
Defined Risk: The high/low of the range becomes a natural stop-loss area, allowing clean setups.
✅ Entry and Exit Rules for the ORB Strategy
Having a consistent framework helps you avoid emotional decisions. Here’s how you can structure your trades using ORB:
🔹 Entry Criteria:
Timeframe: Define your ORB window — e.g., first 15-minute candle.
Bullish Breakout Entry:
Enter long when price closes above the ORB high with volume confirmation.
Bearish Breakdown Entry:
Enter short when price closes below the ORB low with volume confirmation.
⚠️ Avoid entering on the first breakout candle. Wait for a close and retest, or a strong momentum candle for higher confidence.
🔹 Stop-Loss Placement:
For Long Trades: Place SL just below ORB low
For Short Trades: Place SL just above ORB high
🔹 Target/Exit Options:
Fixed RR Target: Aim for 1.5–2x your risk as initial target.
Mid/Outer Bands: Use indicator-drawn breakout bands (like those in LuxAlgo script) as profit zones.
Time-based Exit: Close position by end of session if price stalls or consolidates.
Trailing Exit: Trail your stop behind higher lows (long) or lower highs (short) after breakout.
📊 ORB in Action
You can explore this ready-to-use TradingView indicator to visualize ORB levels in real-time:
🔍 Indicator: Opening Range with Breakouts & Targets (by @LuxAlgo) Thanks to @LuxAlgo team to make this indicator available.
🛠️ Highlights:
Automatically marks the opening range
Plots breakout zones and targets
Ideal for intraday strategies
Works across indices, forex, and crypto
📓 Integrating ORB into Your Trading Journal App
If you're journaling ORB trades, consider logging:
✅ Symbol & timeframe
✅ ORB range (high/low)
✅ Breakout direction (long/short)
✅ Entry time & price
✅ Exit reason (target hit, SL hit, time-based exit)
✅ Notes: market sentiment, news drivers, volume confirmation
Over time, this data will help you:
🔍 Identify which assets respect ORB best
📈 Tune your RR ratio and stop placements
🧠 Reduce decision fatigue by automating setups
🧪 Want to Automate It?
Our trading journal app is ready with 🧠 AI-based journaling for feedback and refinement
🎯 Final Thoughts
ORB is a classic — not because it’s flashy, but because it offers structure, risk control, and repeatability. Whether you're a price action purist or using smart indicators, ORB can provide a disciplined edge — especially when integrated into a journaling and feedback loop.
📌 Start small. Track results. Tune your edge.