Bearish reversal?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 99.24
1st Support: 98.27
1st Resistance: 99.97
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Market indices
DXY warning of an incoming bear market?The DXY is into major multifactor support on the weekly timeframe. We have 2 weekly trendlines intersecting right at the 97.00 level. The first connects the highs from March 2020 through the lows of July 2023 to where we are now. The second is much larger and goes all the way back to 2007, connecting the lows from 2007, 2011 and 2021. We could see a major bounce here for months and some companies have reported during earnings that the sole reason for their improved earnings was due to weakness in the dollar. What happens to earnings when the DXY goes back into bull mode???? Time will tell...
Interesting few days ahead... USD pairs approaching key levelsDXY is finishing a HTF consolidation and is approaching medium-term key areas. Other USD pairs are also in areas where they could aggressively turn around. EURUSD just finished a H4 3-touch continuation flag and is starting to stall on the 3rd touch, suggesting indecision in the markets.
Considering the news events in the next 3 days, starting today with USD advanced GDP data, we could see volatility kicking in on these key levels. We do need a catalyst to push price into a larger directional move, and we are prime positioned for the next leg. Technically, a breakout in both directions would make sense in these areas. Time to set alarms and be vigilant but not jump into trades too early, considering NFP on Friday as well.
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📈 Simplified Trading Rules:
> Follow a Valid Sequence
> Wait for Continuation
> Confirm Entry (valid candlestick pattern)
> Know When to Exit (SL placement)
Remember, technical analysis is subjective; develop your own approach. I use this format primarily to hold myself accountable and to share my personal market views.
The pairs I publish here are usually discussed in detail in my Weekly Forex Forecast (WFF) and are now showing further developments worth mentioning.
⚠ Ensure you have your own risk management in place and always stick to your trading plan.
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Nikkei 225 Wave Analysis – 29 July 2025- Nikkei 225 reversed from the resistance zone
- Likely fall to support level 40000.00
Nikkei 225 index recently reversed from the resistance zone between the resistance levels 42000.00 (which started the sharp sell-off in 2024) and 41285.00.
This resistance zone was further strengthened by the upper daily and the weekly Bollinger Bands.
Given the strength of the aforementioned resistance zone and the overbought weekly Stochastic, Nikkei 225 index can be expected to fall to the next round support level 40000.00.
DXY (US Dollar Index)After breaking out of the downtrend and successfully testing the previous resistance level following the breakout from the Falling Wedge, the US Dollar Index looks poised for upward movement. This could temporarily slow down crypto due to dollar strength. 💵
July was nice, but August has historically been the worst month of the year — and we need to be prepared for that.
US30 07/29 Sell Trade I don't like sells because I consider myself an optimistic person but the red candle that I mark in red gave me all I needed to know to enter sell and get my target profit filled. So. I know there is variation in this trade but we were on a downtrend and going against the trend is only acceptable when the trend is over( meaning a reversal) . So when I see a big candle break the support of my variation I entered
Dow Jones Wave Analysis – 29 July 2025
- Dow Jones reversed from the long-term resistance level 45000.00
- Likely fall to support level 44000.00
Dow Jones index recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the long-term resistance level 45000.00 (which has been reversing the price from the end of 2024) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern, Bearish Engulfing.
Given the strength of the resistance level 45000.00 and the bearish divergence on the daily Stochastic, Dow Jones index can be expected to fall to the next support level 44000.00 (which reversed the price earlier in July).
SPX preparing to sweep liquidity around the 6200 level.Based on my analysis, the #SPX has printed a reversal engulfing candle, which could lead to a period of consolidation. The most probable target appears to be the liquidity pool around the 6200 level.
However, this outlook becomes invalid if the daily candle closes above 6410—the current (today) session high.
As always, conduct your due diligence. Technical analysis offers a probabilistic perspective, not certainty.
US30 Correction with in a Downtrend ChannelUS30 is currently in a consolidation phase within a broader bullish trend. From our previous analysis, the index has shown strong upward momentum. However, to confirm a potential bearish shift, the price would need to break back below key support levels, potentially leading to a deeper correction.
If the price stabilizes above 44,000 on the 4H timeframe, this would strengthen the bullish momentum. A sustained move above this level could open the path towards the next targets at 45,200 and 45,400.
You May find more details in the chart.
Ps: Support with like and comments for better analysis
US30The latest COT report shows increased Non-Commercial short positions, indicating bearish sentiment among speculators. Commercial traders are also holding or adding to their short positions, reinforcing the negative outlook. Rising open interest further confirms market expectations of a decline in the US30.
Nifty Analysis EOD – July 29, 2025 – Tuesday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – July 29, 2025 – Tuesday 🔴
Bulls Strike Back After Trendline Trap & Break
Nifty started below the previous day's low, and after marking day low at 24,598.60, it rose to 24,725 where it faced the trendline and CPR zone. A sharp rejection from there quickly pushed Nifty back to the day's open level. A base-building process began, characterized by a low-range but high-volatility phase.
Gradually, Nifty crossed the VWAP and the trendline again, breaking the day's high and CPR zone, ultimately reaching R1 and closing near the highest point at 24,830.40.
In the first half, both long and short traders got trapped in fast swings—refer to the chart for visual cues.
🕯 5 Min Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
🔄 Trend & Zone Update
📈 Resistance Zone Shifted To: 25,110 ~ 25,090
📉 Support Zone Shifted To: 24,520 ~ 24,480
🕯 Daily Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 24,609.65
High: 24,847.15
Low: 24,598.60
Close: 24,821.10
Change: +140.20 (+0.57%)
🕯Candle Structure Breakdown:
Real Body: Green candle (Close > Open):
24,821.10 − 24,609.65 = 211.45 pts (large bullish body)
Upper Wick: 26.05 pts (small)
Lower Wick: 11.05 pts (very small)
🕯Interpretation:
Market opened lower but found strong buying support, rallying to nearly 24,850.
Closed near the day’s high—bulls dominated.
Tiny lower wick shows hardly any selling pressure after the open.
🕯Candle Type:
Bullish Marubozu-type — strong signal of reversal or continuation, indicating control by buyers.
🕯Key Insight:
Strong bounce from sub-24,600 back above 24,800 has improved short-term sentiment.
If 24,830–24,850 breaks in the next session, potential upside till 24,920–24,995.
Support now shifts to 24,700–24,720.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 202.98
IB Range: 128.5 → Medium
Market Structure: Balanced
Trades Triggered:
🕒 11:10 AM – Long Entry → Target Hit 🎯 (1:3 Risk:Reward)
🧱 Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance Zones:
24,815 ~ 24,830
24,850
24,920
24,995
Support Zones:
24,725
24,693
24,660 ~ 24,650
🧠 Final Thoughts
“Volatility shakes the weak hands; structure empowers the patient.”
Today’s session was a textbook example of how the market tests conviction. After trapping early traders with sharp intraday swings, Nifty rewarded those who respected structure and waited for confirmation. The reclaim of the trendline, VWAP, and CPR zone reinforced the strength of bullish intent. If the momentum continues above 24,850, we may be entering a fresh leg of the uptrend—stay nimble, but don't lose sight of the bigger picture.
✏️ Disclaimer
This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
I told you so....VIX is the golden goose! All this fake pump in the market was just not sustainable. It is very clear that there are holes and the money printing can't last forever. The S&P fake pumps, and artificial tariffs (which Americans pay 90%) are created out of thin air. The reality is that defaults are very high across the board for most debt classes, VIX is at a YEAR LOW (doesn't happen to often, signaling massive complacency), and now the song will end and all the retailers will be holding the bag! Learn how to trade the VIX! DM me for details.
Always do your own due diligence, but historically this is a good time to get out :) You need to see and take action when you see red flags....
KSE100 Technical Analysis 29-07-2025KSE100 Technical Analysis (1H Time Frame) 29-07-2025
The index displayed heavy selling pressure in the last two hours, with big bearish candles. However, it touched a bullish measuring gap at 137600 and showed a small sign of upward reversal.
Key Observations
- Expected reversal from the current level of 137600 or further down to the secondary support at 137100 (50% Fibonacci retracement level).
- Potential upward reversal may face resistance at 138630 (bottom of the bearish IFDZ).
- Possible pullback to 138150 before resuming the upward journey.
Outlook
We remain bullish on the index, considering today's downward movement as a potential spring for renewed upward momentum. The revised immediate target price is 140590.
Tuesday 29 July: Forex Market thoughts The EUR has begun the week under pressure following the US / EUR trade deal.
EUR weakness could be out down to what they call 'sell the fact', meaning buy last week's deal rumours / sell (take profit) on the announcement. Or, more likely, it could be because it appears the US has the better side of the deal. Either way, all of lat week's EUR positivity has dissipated.
I didn't get involved in a EUR short trade yesterday, but there is a case to say it was viable.
The USD and JPY begin the week on the front foot. Possibly benefitting from 'EUR liquidity', or possibly due to 'positioning' ahead of this week's FOMC and BOJ meetings.
As things stand, with the VIX below 15 and the S&P still riding high, I maintain my view that according to market fundamentals, 'risk on' trades 'should' be viable. Which means staying patient and waiting for a turnaround, particularly on the JPY charts.
If that turnaround doesn't come, I could be forced to change my view.