KSE-100 INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | 28 JULY 2025KSE-100 INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | 28 JULY 2025
The KSE-100 index has completed its pullback by trading above the bearish pullback channel (marked light below). It is now taking support from the trend line (dotted blue color line) and facing resistance from the inclined resistance line (dotted red color line). The market opened with a gap up, filled the gap, and took support from the trend line. We expect the index to continue its upward journey, breaking out of the triangle formation formed by the support and resistance lines. We maintain our stance that the index is powerfully bullish and will continue to achieve previously mentioned targets.
Market indices
Technical Analysis WeeklyGermany 40 remains in a bullish trend and is currently in a pullback phase. It trades at 24,308, almost identical to its VWAP of 24,307.5. The RSI at 54 suggests a pause in momentum. Support is found at 23,786 and resistance at 24,650.
UK 100 is in an impulsive bullish phase, breaking above previous highs with price at 9,145 well above the VWAP at 8,970. The RSI is at 73, indicating strong buying pressure. Support is at 8,748 and resistance is at 9,101.
Wall Street continues its bullish trend, pausing near recent highs. The price is at 44,880, above its VWAP of 44,445. RSI at 63 confirms steady bullish momentum. Support sits at 43,921 and resistance at 44,880.
Brent Crude remains in a broad neutral trend with short-term range-bound action. Price is at 6,768, just under VWAP of 6,866. RSI at 45 reflects a lack of directional conviction. Support is at 6,717 and resistance at 7,015.
Gold continues to trade sideways within a broad range. It trades at 3,337, nearly equal to its VWAP. The RSI at 47 suggests balance. Support is found at 3,290 and resistance at 3,407.
EUR/USD holds a bullish trend while undergoing a correction. It trades at 1.1740, close to its VWAP at 1.1699. The RSI at 59 shows mild positive momentum. Support is at 1.1585 and resistance at 1.1814.
GBP/USD is in a bullish trend but under corrective pressure and seemingly turning rangebound. The price is 1.3433, slightly below the VWAP of 1.3511. RSI is at 42, hinting at waning momentum. Support is 1.3336, resistance at 1.3687.
USD/JPY continues in a neutral trend but could be about to break higher, currently ranging around 147.66 and VWAP at 147.00. RSI at 57 shows a modest bullish bias after having pulled back from overbought territory. Support is at 144.54 and resistance at 149.46.
Crypto30 Ascension and purgatory, Tops and bottom.The idea is that crypto has been trading in one great rectangle pattern—
it’s all a giant range.
When the top is in, many tokens or vaporware retrace to zero, while others retain some value.
There’s the possibility of a cyclical quadruple top in the near term.
Once the top is confirmed, it’s back to purgatory, where scams, vaporware, and low-adoption projects get discarded before the next ascension.
This is what I’m looking at to gauge when to take profits
DXY Approaching Key Resistance — Trend Reversal Ahead?The DXY is forming a strong base at the bottom, showing clear signs of accumulation after a long downtrend.
Price has started pushing upward and is now approaching the secondary resistance line. A breakout here could open the path toward the primary resistance zone, which has capped rallies in the past.
The RSI is also trending higher, supporting this potential move.
If bulls clear the red resistance line, momentum could accelerate quickly.
DYOR, NFA
US30 Weekly Forecast – Bullish Bounce or Breakdown?Hope everyone had a great weekend!
This chart outlines a critical US30 intraday structure with price currently pulling back into a key confluence zone composed of:
A rising trendline from July 23rd
Two stacked demand zones, the upper around 44,850 and lower near 44,700
Bullish Scenario (Preferred Bias):
If price respects the trendline and upper key zone, we may see a bullish continuation targeting the 45,150–45,250 range.
The clean bounce zone, marked by the green arrow, suggests smart money might defend this level.
Watch for bullish engulfing or low-volume traps near 44,850–44,880 to confirm entry.
Bearish Scenario (Alternate Play):
If price fails to hold the trendline, and breaks below the 44,850 key zone with momentum, expect a drop into the lower zone (44,650–44,700).
A breakdown below this lower demand could shift the bias entirely, opening the door for a deeper correction back into the mid-44,000s.
Weekly Playbook:
Early week: Monitor the reaction at the upper key zone for sniper long opportunities with tight stops.
Mid to late week: If structure fails, flip bias and look for supply rejections on retests for shorts.
Risk: Account for FOMC/major U.S. news events that may introduce volatility traps around these zones.
Verdict: Stay patient. Let price dictate bias at the trendline. If it holds, this could be a textbook bounce continuation setup.
US 500 – Potentially A Pivotal Week Ahead The US 500 index registered a new record closing high on Friday at 6396 continuing a bullish trend that has yet to show many signs of faltering. The Monday open has seen this move extend as traders digest the positive news flow from the weekend that a US/EU trade deal has been agreed after President Trump and EU Commission head Ursula Von der Leyen, met in Scotland on Sunday. This has seen the US 500 index rally another 0.4% to a new high of 6429 (0730 BST).
However, the week ahead could be a pivotal one for the direction of US stock indices over the remainder of the summer, and in this regard, it is perhaps surprising that market volatility measures, such as the VIX (fear Index), are back to their lowest levels since late March, indicating limited trader concern for what lies ahead. Although, things can change very quickly.
In many ways the week ahead is one that has it all, including a new round of US/China trade talks which start today, a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision, key tech earnings, tier 1 US data releases and on-going trade/tariff discussions. More than enough to ensure there is the potential for US 500 price action to become increasingly volatile as the week progresses.
Looking forward, Wednesday could be a very busy day, with the Fed Interest Rate Decision released at 1900 BST and quickly followed at 1930 BST by the press conference led by Chairman Powell, who has been under intense political pressure in the last 10 days. While the Fed are expected to keep rates unchanged, traders may be interested to see which policymakers were keen to vote for a cut, as well as whether Chairman Powell’s comments indicate a September rate reduction may be more likely than currently anticipated.
Then, later Wednesday evening Microsoft, Qualcomm and Meta release their earnings updates after the close, with Amazon and Apple’s results due after the market close on Thursday. These releases could be crucial for sentiment towards the US 500, with particular focus being paid to what these companies say about future revenue and tariff issues, as well as the specific performance of AI and cloud services.
This only takes us to the middle of the week, which is where the tier 1 US economic data releases take over, with the PCE Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, due on Thursday at 1330 BST, and then the all-important Non-farm Payrolls update on the current health of the US labour market released on Friday at 1330 BST. US 500 index traders may well be sensitive to the outcome of both of these prints.
That’s still not all. Friday’s US employment update coincides with President Trump’s tariff deadline which could add to US 500 volatility into the weekend.
Wow, I did say it’s a week that has it all!
Technical Update: New All-Time Highs Posted Again
It looks as if the latest US 500 index activity is maintaining the current positive trending themes after another all-time high was posted this morning at 6429. This could skew risks towards the further development of the pattern of higher price highs and higher price lows that has materialised since the April 7th downside extreme at 4799 was seen.
However, it must be remembered, these moves do not guarantee this price activity will continue, so traders may find it useful to assess the possible support and resistance levels that could influence price activity moving forward across what is set to be a very busy week of events.
Possible Support Levels:
If any US 500 price weakness does materialise across the week ahead with the potential to develop into a more extended phase of declines, a support level that traders may consider worth monitoring could be 6289.
6289 is equal to the current level of the rising Bollinger mid-average. Closing breaks below 6289 might suggest a more extended phase of weakness is possible, opening the potential for moves back to 6234, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, possibly further if this level in turn gives way.
Possible Resistance Levels:
Having been capped by the 6429 all-time high this morning, sellers may continue to be found at this level, so this might prove to be the first potential resistance if fresh attempts at price strength develop over the coming week.
It may be helpful for traders to watch how this 6429 level is defended on a closing basis, as successful closing breaks might suggest a further extension of the uptrend pattern currently evident in price activity.
Such closing breaks higher may well suggest price strength towards 6671, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level of the February 19th to April 7th sell-off.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Analysis on the DXY – EURUSD RelationshipHello traders,
Here’s an analysis that can be useful for both short-term and swing trades on EURUSD and DXY. Our trading team’s calculations are as follows:
Analysis on the DXY – EURUSD Relationship
Currently, DXY is at 98.200. Historical statistical data indicate that if DXY declines toward 96.300, there is approximately a **1.55% probability of an upward move** in EURUSD.
Based on this scenario:
Current EURUSD level: 1.16500
Projected target level:1.1830
While the correlation data show a strong inverse relationship, it’s important to note that periodic deviations can occur in the market. Therefore, this analysis should be considered a statistical projection only, not a guaranteed outcome.
We Got The Deal - Time To Sell The NewsOkay, so we have the long-awaited deal between the US and the EU. After a large up-gap was announced last night, it now seems as if a “sell the facts” scenario is unfolding.
Such a wave of selling would also fit in well with the typical seasonal weakness that we often see in the markets from August onwards.
Bollinger band indicates that we might see a recovery soon. Bollinger band in a beautiful tool of Technical analysis. There are three lines in it. The upper bandwidth line, the middle line and the lower band width line.
As you can see in the chart. Whenever the stock or an index price touches or crosses the upper line the indication it gives is that the market is overbought and there is an imminent selling pressure.
Middle line indicates either resistance or support depending on the position of the candle within the band. It further indicates that Middle line will be support when the price is above it. It also indicates that middle Bollinger band will be a resistnace when the candles are below it.
Lower bandwidth line indicates a support zone. When the candles touch or cross it the indication it gives is that the market is oversold and there can be an imminent up move once this phenomenon happens.
Bollinger band in like a channel or a parallel chanel but a more accurate one and a more asymmetric one.
Currently you can see in the chart that Bollinger band has not only touched but also crossed the bottom bandwidth. This is an indication of an over sold market. Thus the indications we get from this tool are that there are very high chances for a short covering recovery or relief rally.
The indication is in sync with Tariff deadline which is tomorrow. Thus any positive announcement on that front can also initiate a strong or mild recovery rally. Thus we might see a bottom formation and recovery rather sooner than later.
Current Nifty closing is at:24680.
Upper band width is at: 25683 (This zone will work as strong resistance zone).
Mid Bandwidth is at: 25217 (This zone will be a Strong resistance).
Mother Line: 24942 (Strong Resistance).
Lower band width is at: 24750 (Weak Resistance).
Nearby support: 24501 (Support).
Father Line: 24157 (Strong Support).
It is a good time to reshuffle your Portfolios and initiate fresh buying in the blue-chip stocks which might be available at a good valuation.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Another Gap For Today?I anticipate another gap up opening on the 📉US100 Index, which I believe will be filled today.
The formation of an intraday bearish change of character(CHOCH) on the hourly chart
This indicates a strong likelihood of continued bearish movement, with a target of 23319.
US30 Market Breakdown – 07/28/2025📍 US30 Market Breakdown – 07/28/2025
US30 just broke above the prior key zone at 44,950–45,000 and tapped 45,160+ before showing some rejection and pulling back to 45,000.
The move confirms bullish continuation—but the pullback is critical. If bulls defend 44,950–44,900, this could be a textbook higher low and launchpad for more upside.
📊 Current Structure:
✅ Higher highs & higher lows
📈 Clean break and retest of the 45K zone
⏳ Pullback in progress—watching demand areas
🧱 Resistance Zones:
45,160 → Recent local high
45,250 → Psychological resistance
45,400 → Next extension zone
📉 Support Zones:
44,950 → Breakout level (must hold)
44,800 → EMA confluence
44,600–44,500 → Demand base
📉 If price fails to hold 44,950, we could see a fade back to 44,800 or even 44,600.
📈 If 45,160 breaks, expect momentum to accelerate into the 45,300–45,400 range.
🧠 Bias:
🟢 Bullish
Structure favors continuation unless 44,800 breaks
Buy dips into demand zones
Wait for NY open confirmation for intraday momentum
Key Events That Could Shape the Dollar This Week🇺🇸 Key Events That Could Shape the Dollar This Week
Three major catalysts are on the radar for USD traders:
📊 ADP Employment Report
💰 Advance GDP (Q2)
🧠 Fed Chair Powell’s Speech
Additionally, ongoing trade developments with the EU may add to volatility.
📊 1. ADP Employment Report
The July ADP report is forecast to show 82K job additions. While this may seem consistent with recent NFP strength, several red flags suggest growing labor market weakness:
Decline in labor force participation
Slowing wage growth
Emerging contraction signals in the services sector
Even if ADP meets expectations, it may not reflect broad-based labor market health. Historically, ADP and NFP have often diverged—so the market reaction may be muted unless the data surprises meaningfully.
💰 2. Advance GDP (Q2)
Q2 GDP is expected to show modest growth, possibly supported by:
Higher tariff revenues boosting government income
A weaker dollar improving export competitiveness
Reduced imports due to elevated import costs
However, much of this growth is likely nominal rather than real. With inflation remaining sticky, headline GDP may be inflated by price effects rather than true economic expansion. Real GDP could remain flat or weak.
🧠 3. Fed Chair Powell’s Speech
This is arguably the most market-sensitive event of the week.
Goldman Sachs and other major banks believe the recent resilience in U.S. data lowers the chances of a rate cut at this meeting. However, political dynamics could add nuance:
With Donald Trump actively campaigning—and reportedly pressuring the Fed to ease rates to boost exports and growth—Powell may face a fine balancing act in his tone.
Markets will dissect every word for clues on future policy.
🌐 U.S.-EU Trade Developments
The U.S. recently announced a new trade agreement with the EU, including a 15% tariff on selected European imports.
In the short term, this could be dollar-supportive, as it:
Favors domestic producers
Reduces reliance on imports
Potentially improves the trade balance
Yet over the longer term, such tariffs can be inflationary and disrupt global supply chains—possibly complicating the Fed’s decision-making.
⚠️ Final Thought
In times of policy uncertainty, markets lose their predictability.
Tariffs, in particular, often have a stronger and more immediate impact than calendar-based economic data.
As a result, traders must monitor trade-related news and tariff decisions just as closely—if not more—than traditional economic releases in order to stay ahead of market direction and central bank decisions.
Markets on Fire: Stock Indexes Pop, but Will Big Tech Deliver?S&P 500 and Nasdaq set records. Now it's up to big tech to justify that.
Talk about forward-looking valuation. Tech companies’ valuations are largely based on future potential rather than current performance. And that’s what we’re seeing right now getting priced in across the big indexes.
You’d think we’d be bored of record highs by now. But no — Wall Street keeps hitting refresh on its all-time-high counter. 🎵 Over and over again. 🎵
On Friday, the S&P 500 SP:SPX notched its 14th record close this year, ending at 6,388.64. The Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC followed with its 15th at 21,108.32. Even the Dow TVC:DJI — the older sibling who prefers yield over hype — climbed nearly 0.5% to 44,901.92, within a latte’s foam of its December record .
And while indexes are breaking personal bests, investors are buying ahead of some big data deliveries. Why? Because the week ahead is the Super Bowl of Earnings, and the bigger chunk of the Magnificent Seven is up next.
😎 What in the Magnificent Seven?
A highly exclusive club with just seven members, the Mag 7 has entered the earnings spotlight — and the audience isn’t going mild. Traders are pricing perfection, and the script better deliver.
Meta NASDAQ:META kicks things off Wednesday after the close with expected revenue of $44.8 billion and EPS of $5.87. Can Zuckerberg’s AI narrative get investors to forget about the metaverse?
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT shows up at the same time, hoping to dazzle with $73.8 billion in revenue and $3.38 EPS. Copilot AI better be doing overtime.
Then on Thursday, again after lights out, Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN joins the chat with its AWS and ecommerce empire expected to pick up $162.1 billion in revenue. Right behind is Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , fighting to stop its slide into meh-land with projected revenue of $89.2 billion and $1.43 EPS. (Fast fact: AAPL is down 12% year to date — among the worst performers in the crew.)
So far, Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL already crushed its quarter , posting $96.4 billion in revenue and $2.31 EPS, plus a spicy raise in capex to $85 billion.
Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA ? Not so great. The EV maker reported a 12% revenue drop and a 16% net income decline, spooking investors with a warning of “rough quarters ahead.” The stock is lower by 17% year to date.
Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , the AI trailblazer, reports in late August. Until then, it’s chilling on a $4 trillion throne, as per our Top companies rankings, watching its friends sweat it out.
💸 Can the Mag 7 Keep Carrying?
Here’s a harsh dose of reality: the entire S&P 500 is riding on the backs of these seven stocks. Analysts expect them to post 14% earnings growth, while the other 493 companies limp along at 3.4%. Talk about top-heavy things.
So what happens if even one tech titan misses the mark big time and spooks with scary guidance? A market correction? A buy-the-dip opportunity?
And let’s not forget: valuations are stretched. The S&P 500 is now trading at nearly 23x forward earnings (that’s projected profits per share). And the Nasdaq? Don’t even ask. (We’ll tell you anyway — it’s close to 30x). In all that, now’s a great time to keep a close eye on the Earnings Calendar .
📊 Not All Is Big Tech: Fed and Jobs Loom
As if this week wasn’t already packed enough, macro is back on the menu. The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and Chair Jay Powell is expected to hold rates steady at 4.5%.
But don’t rule out drama. A single hawkish word and this party could quickly get some rain on. Powell, the man who moves trillions with a simple “Good afternoon,” has a track record of putting markets in their place when they get too euphoric.
And then there’s Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Consensus calls for just 108,000 jobs added in July — soft, but not disastrous, and fewer than June’s 147,000 . Blame summer hiring slumps, tariff uncertainty, or the market finally digesting its own hype.
Off to you : Can the Magnificent Seven keep this market magnificent? Or are we about to learn what happens when you ride too close to the sun on AI-generated wings?