NAS100 Gaps Up on Trump Trade Deal – Bullish Continuation The market opened with a bullish gap after Trump announced new trade deals, sparking investor optimism. Price cleanly broke above the 23,266.5 🔼 resistance level, confirming it as a fresh support zone.
Buyers are now in full control, and price is forming a strong bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows.
Support at: 23,266.5 🔽, 23,200 🔽, 23,025 🔽
Bias:
🔼 Bullish: As long as price holds above 23,266.5, the path is clear for a move toward 23,400 and possibly 23,540+. Watch for minor pullbacks into support for continuation setups.
🔽 Bearish: A break back below 23,266.5 would be the first warning of bullish exhaustion, with downside potential toward 23,200.
📰 News Insight: The bullish gap came after Donald Trump announced new trade deals, boosting risk sentiment across U.S. indices. This has become a key short-term fundamental catalyst.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Market indices
NASDAQ| Bullish Bias - Refined OB Near MitigationPair: NASDAQ (NAS100)
Bias: Bullish
HTF Overview (4H):
Strong bullish structure has been the narrative, and last week’s upside intent confirmed the move. Current action suggests price is preparing for continuation after brief consolidation.
LTF Confirmation (30M):
Structure has been refined with a key OB in play. Price is approaching mitigation, and I’ve been tracking this level closely since last week.
Entry Zone: Waiting for clear 5M shift after OB mitigation. 5M OB already tapped — now I’m watching for confirmation to execute.
Targets: 5M highs first, 30M highs if price maintains momentum
Mindset Note: Focused and flowing. No forcing — I’ve tracked this from HTF to LTF and now I’m just waiting for price to invite me in. Clarity + patience = execution.
$BTC's run to ATH is fueled by $DXYNOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
I've yet to see this being mentioned anywhere on the internet, but TVC:DXY 's rally may just be CRYPTOCAP:BTC 's best friend.
This, despite the popular notion that when TSX:DXT goes up, CRYPTOCAP:BTC goes down, and vice-versa.
However, this novel idea puts a break to it.
TVC:DXY is hitting the bottoms of its uptrending channel, and it's likely to bounce back up towards the ceilings.
Which means a rally is likely, and this is kinda good for $BTC.
I'll remain bullish, until the numbers say otherwise.
New All-Time Highs for S&P 500 – No Resistance AheadThe S&P 500 is officially in price discovery mode, printing new all-time highs with clean higher highs and higher lows.
Each old resistance flipped into strong support—textbook bullish market structure.
As long as this trend holds, there's no ceiling in sight. Bulls are fully in control.
DXY Outlook: Can Fed Hold Spark a Move Toward 100?DXY Weekly Forecast – July Week 4
After reaching 96.50 early this month, DXY began showing bullish signs. Last week, price retested the extreme demand zone at 97.00 and closed with a bearish weekly candle that held some bullish pressure at the base.
This week, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting. If the Fed holds rates steady, the dollar could strengthen further. A weekly close above 97.90 would confirm the breakout and open the door to a run toward 100.00 — a key psychological and technical level.
Bias: Bullish (if 97.90 breaks)
Key Zones:
• Demand: 97.00
• Breakout Level: 97.90
• Target: 100.00
This could be the beginning of a fresh bullish leg — especially if macro conditions align with technical structure.
—
Weekly forecast by Sphinx Trading
Let me know your bias in the comments.
#DXY #DollarIndex #ForexForecast #SphinxWeekly #SmartMoney #FOMC #USD #InterestRates
DXY forecast From weekly view the DXY is looking bearish at least till 95.123 key level the will see if we get a bullish power as the DXY is forming a reversal pattern. But of course many factors plays part in this economy, for example, global news like Tariffs and other factors.
So when DXY is trading on the 95.123 key level additional confluence will give us the right to put on trades, as the 95.123 key level is significant for what will take place next.
Take you all.......
DXY 4Hour TF - July 27, 2025DXY 7/27/2025
DXY 4hour Bearish Idea
Monthly - Bearish
Weekly - Bearish
Dailly - Bearish
4hour - Bearish
**We analyze DXY as an indicator of USD strength on a week to week basis**
This week is looking like we can expect bearish momentum on USD but here are two scenarios breaking down the potential:
Bearish Continuation - USD pulled a strong bearish reversal all last week which pushed us below our major 98.000 support zone.
We are now testing that same 98.000 zone as resistance and are looking to see if it will hold. Ideally, we can confirm further bearish structure to gain confidence in a bearish USD for the week ahead.
Bullish Reversal- For us to consider DXY as bullish again we would need to see bullish structure above our 98.000 zone. This would include: A break back above 98.000 with an established HH and HL.
Breakout of the channelAfter the DXY broke out of the channel, it formed a range.
We can see a yellow trendline where the price is moving exactly along it.
If this trendline breaks to the downside, we can take a short position targeting the bottom of the channel.
Otherwise, it would mean the trend reversal in DXY is confirmed.
DXY weekly outlookDXY Weekly Outlook
This week, I’m watching to see if the dollar continues its bearish trend or breaks above the current supply zone. We've already seen a strong reaction from the 8hr supply, but price could still tap into the 1hr supply before making its next move.
If price drops from here, I’ll be looking at the 2hr demand zone below for a possible bullish reaction. If DXY pushes up from that zone, pairs like EU and GU could drop — which lines up with my overall short bias on those.
Gold may not always move in sync with the dollar, but DXY still gives a good idea of market sentiment.
Let’s see how it plays out and stay reactive.
GER40 | Consolidation Range 24,600 – 24,000 With Breakout TargetGER40 is consolidating within a clear range between 24,600 resistance and 24,000 support. The lower boundary (24,000) aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the 23,050 → 24,600 impulse leg. A confirmed breakout above the range projects a measured move target of 25,197.2, which is derived from the 600-point height of the range between 24,000 and 24,600.
Support at: 24,000.00 / 23,678.5 / 23,050.00 🔽
Resistance at: 24,600.00 🔼
Range Target: 25,197.2 🎯
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Clean break and hold above 24,600 confirms range breakout with target at 25,197.2.
🔽 Bearish: Break below 24,000 brings 23,678.5 and 23,050 into view.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
GER40 | Cools Below ResistanceThe DAX rallied aggressively into 24,618.3, but price action has since turned sideways. The index is now ranging just below resistance, as bulls and bears battle for direction in this consolidation phase.
Support at: 24,000.00 / 23,687.21 / 23,500.00 / 23,047.01 🔽
Resistance at: 24,618.30 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Clean break and close above 24,618.30 targets fresh highs.
🔽 Bearish: Break below 24,000 may confirm short-term distribution toward 23,687 and 23,500.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
History does not repeat itself, however it tends to rhymeIt’s widely accepted that Mark Twain once said (or wrote) that “history does not repeat itself, however it tends to rhyme”.
Historical Parallels to a Super Cycle Wave (I) Top in U.S. Equities
The road to a major market top is often paved with echoing patterns from the past, and today's landscape bears an uncanny resemblance to pivotal historical events that preceded economic upheaval.
The 1918 Spanish Flu—though less economically damaging in the U.S. than elsewhere, still triggered a 1.5% drop in GDP and a 2.1% decline in consumer spending. The resulting economic weakness, paired with rising inflation, eroded real returns on equities and short-term government bonds for years.
Then came the 1929 stock market crash, the spark that ignited the Great Depression. Driven by a perfect storm of extreme speculation, sky-high valuations, and a regulatory vacuum, the collapse revealed the systemic fragility beneath the euphoria.
Adding fuel to the fire, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 slammed the brakes on global trade. By sharply raising tariffs on imports, it invited swift retaliatory measures from abroad. The result: a devastating plunge in both U.S. exports and imports, deepening the economic crisis and worsening unemployment. Smoot-Hawley has since become a textbook example of how protectionist policy can magnify economic damage.
Modern Echoes: A Cycle Repeating?
Fast forward to the present and we see unsettling similarities.
The Covid-19 pandemic serves as a modern analog to the 1918 flu, disrupting global supply chains and triggering a steep drop in GDP and consumer spending. Unlike the post-WWI period, however, inflation didn’t precede the crisis, it exploded afterward, fueled by pent-up demand and fiscal stimulus, giving rise to persistent “sticky” inflation....and NOT TRANSITORY.
In a similar inversion of sequence, the Trump-era tariffs—modern-day echoes of Smoot-Hawley, were enacted before any major equity downturn, not after. Still, their long-term impact on global trade and supply chain reliability remains a pressure point for the economy.
Most critically, speculation and valuation excess are again center stage. Just as the roaring ’20s were characterized by euphoric risk-taking, today’s U.S. equity market is trading at record-high P/E ratios, despite rising macroeconomic uncertainty and deteriorating breadth.
These historical and contemporary markers suggest we may be approaching the apex of a Super Cycle Wave (III), a turning point that, like its predecessors, may only be fully recognized in hindsight.
It is my contention, that history is currently rhyming.
Best to all,
Chris
SPX500USD is on a riseHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD started the next impulse wave 5 (grey) as I've said in my outlook.
Next week we could see more upside for this pair.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
NOTE: the next three weeks I'm on holiday so I will not post any outlook publicly.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
US30 H4 IdeaThe Federal Reserve meets next week and is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%. Still, market participants will watch for commentary on inflation and rate-cut prospects, especially after recent criticism of Fed Chair Powell by President Trump.
What Should Traders Watch?
With the major indexes on track for weekly gains, next week’s developments could test the market’s resilience.