S&P 500 INDEX ,,, Possible pullback Uptrend
Needless to say, every rising will be risky without a correction (either price or time).
After about three months of upward moving with just a small time correction, personally I am waiting for a correction to get new buying positions. In addition, some of the companies have prices rising dramatically and this proves that having a small corrective wave is vital for the market. Around 5800 can be a good place for a correction and a pullback. totally wait for another sure trigger for entry or adding new buying positions.
Good luck.
Market indices
US30 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 42,099/43, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 41,299.50 an overlap support .
The stop loss is set at 42745.02, a swing high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 15/05/2025Gap up opening expected in nifty near 24750 level. After opening if nifty starts trading and sustain above this level then expected upside movement upto 24950 level. Below 24700 level there will be downside expected upto 24550. 24550 level will act as a strong and important support for nifty. Any major downside only expected below this support level.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(15/05/2025)Today will be slightly gap up opening expected in banknifty. After opening if banknifty starts trading and sustain above 55050 level then expected bullish movement in index. This movement can goes upto 55450 level and can extend further upto 400-500+ points in case banknifty starts trading above 55550 level. Below 54950 negative movement expected. 54550 level will act as a downside support for banknifty. Major downside movement expected in banknifty below 54450 level.
SP500: Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025
The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, and other major indices are poised to begin a significant decline, potentially as early as today, May 15, 2025, targeting a retest of the price lows from April 7, 2025, and possibly lower (S&P 500: ~4,802.20, Dow Jones: ~36,611.78, Nikkei: ~30,340.50).
This movement is driven by renewed trade tensions, disappointing economic data, and pervasive bearish market sentiment.
1. Fundamental Factors Driving Potential Decline
1.1. Renewed Uncertainty in Trade Policy
· The rally in indices on May 12–13, 2025, was fueled by optimism surrounding a temporary U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement (a 90-day truce) announced after talks in Switzerland on May 11, 2025. However, as of May 15, 2025, investor confidence may be waning due to a lack of tangible progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations.
Trigger for May 15: Recent reports highlight conflicting statements from the Trump administration, with earlier promises of new trade deals (e.g., a U.K. deal on May 8) followed by uncertainty. A Reuters report from May 14, 2025, notes that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are meeting with Chinese officials, but no new agreements have been confirmed. If today’s talks yield no positive outcomes or if President Trump escalates rhetoric (e.g., reinstating higher tariffs), markets could plummet, as seen in early April when tariffs triggered a 15% drop in the S&P 500.
· Trade war fears disproportionately impact export-heavy indices like the Nikkei, which is sensitive to yen appreciation and U.S.-China tensions, and the Dow Jones, with its significant exposure to multinational corporations. A breakdown in negotiations could drive indices toward the April 7 lows as investors price in higher costs and slower global growth.
1.2. Disappointments in Economic Data
· CPI Reaction: The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on May 14, 2025, reported inflation at 2.3% annually, below the expected 2.4%. While initially viewed as positive, markets may have anticipated an even lower figure to justify Federal Reserve rate cuts. The modest S&P 500 gain (+0.7%) and Dow’s decline (-0.6%) on May 14 suggest investor skepticism about further inflation cooling.
· Producer Price Index (PPI) Release on May 15: The PPI for April 2025, scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET (2:30 PM CEST) on May 15, 2025, is a pivotal event. If the PPI indicates persistent wholesale inflation—potentially driven by tariff-related cost pressures—it could signal rising consumer prices ahead, diminishing hopes for Fed policy easing and triggering a sell-off. A higher-than-expected PPI could echo the market’s reaction to mixed economic data in early April, when GDP contraction fears pushed indices lower.
· Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2025, released on May 14, 2025, likely showed continued weakness (April’s reading was 52.2, a multi-year low). If the May figure, reported yesterday, declined further, it could amplify concerns about reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting corporate earnings and pushing indices downward.
1.3. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Policy
· On May 7, 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted heightened economic risks, citing “elevated uncertainty” due to trade policies. Markets are pricing in 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2025, with the first cut expected in July.
· Trigger for May 15: If today’s PPI data or other economic indicators (e.g., Initial Jobless Claims, also due at 8:30 AM ET) point to persistent inflation or economic weakness, expectations for rate cuts could fade, increasing borrowing costs for companies and pressuring equity valuations. This scenario would mirror April 7, when recession fears and tariff impacts drove the S&P 500 below 5,000.
2. Technical Analysis
· The initial impulse move saw a decline of approximately -21.87%, with a second impulse of similar magnitude (marked on the chart). Currently, markets are aligned for a simultaneous decline across asset classes: oil, cryptocurrencies, and major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei, and others.
· Previous analysis concluded that this is a correction preceding a broader decline in indices, driven by trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, and U.S. economic indicators. I believe a recession is already underway.
Price Targets for S&P 500 Decline:
➖ Retest of the April 7, 2025, low: $4,803.00
➖ Secondary target: $4,716.00
3. Market Sentiment and Behavioral Factors
3.1. Fragile Optimism Post-Rally
· The S&P 500’s 22% rally from April lows and the Dow’s 15% recovery were driven by trade truce optimism and strength in technology stocks (e.g., Nvidia, Palantir). However, Bloomberg reported on May 14, 2025, that Wall Street’s rebound is “showing signs of exhaustion” due to trade war risks and fears of an economic slowdown. This fragility could lead to profit-taking today if negative news emerges.
· The Dow’s weakness on May 14 (down 0.6% compared to the S&P 500’s 0.7% gain) highlights vulnerabilities in specific sectors (e.g., healthcare following UnitedHealth’s 18% drop), which could spread to broader markets.
3.2. Global Market Correlation
· Asian markets, including the Nikkei, exhibited mixed performance on May 14, with China’s CSI 300 up slightly (+0.15%) and India’s Nifty 50 down 1.27%. If Asian markets open lower on May 15 due to overnight U.S. declines or trade-related news, it could create a feedback loop, intensifying global selling pressure.
4. Mini Evidence-Based Framework for the Forecast
4.1. Catalysts for Today’s Decline (May 15, 2025)
PPI Data (8:30 AM ET): A higher-than-expected PPI could signal persistent inflation, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts and triggering a sell-off. Consensus anticipates a 0.2% monthly increase; a reading above 0.3% could be bearish.
Trade Talk Updates: Negative commentary from U.S. or Chinese officials (e.g., no deal reached in Geneva) could reignite trade war fears, mirroring the April 7 sell-off.
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): An unexpected rise in claims (e.g., above 220,000 compared to the prior fmadd211,000) could signal labor market weakness, amplifying recession fears.
4.2. Global Scenario for S&P 500
· I anticipate a wave-like decline with intermittent corrections. I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 falls below 4,700, potentially reaching 4,200. Extreme caution is warranted this year.
· There’s even a theory that, starting in 2025, the U.S. dollar could lose 50% of its purchasing power.
Idea:
4.3. Oil and Geopolitical Outlook
I expect oil (Brent) to decline to the $50+/- range, from which an upward trend may begin, potentially tied to future military conflicts:
· Europe vs. Russia
· India vs. Pakistan
· Iran vs. Israel
Weekly SPX Has A Bottom W Pattern Prompting More Upside!Hey Traders and Followers! SPX is going up!
Sounds crazy despite the tariff news floating around but charts never lie.
Here's what we got on the weekly SPX/USD; We have a bottoming W pattern. What's that mean? We going higher people.
5690.7 is the beakline area, price above invites bulls to a party.
Target for this long is at 6198.9 area. Support sits at 5579.4 for this one.
I'm letting you know about this party so up to you if you want to have a good time. See you all there with bells on and cash for all $ for those who show up.
Best of luck in all your trades $
Cheers!
USD Holds Key Res at 102 but Bulls Show Up at Higher-LowUSD came into the week with a full head of steam as price broke out to the 102.00 level on Monday. This was pushed by a strong move in USD/JPY testing 148 and EUR/USD testing 1.1100 - but then the Tuesday CPI report came out soft and that gave bulls reason to take profits on the USD.
That pullback ran vividly into early-Wednesday trade but at that point, support appeared at an important spot of prior resistance of 100.28, which was the neckline for the inverse head and shoulders pattern that led into last week's FOMC-fueled breakout.
That support has so far held and that keeps bulls in control of the trend on daily and four-hour charts. The key test now is a big batch of drivers for tomorrow morning with retail sales, PPI and a speech from FOMC Chair Jerome Powell.
At this point, EUR/USD retains bearish potential and USD/JPY bullish potential, which I'll touch on in a following post, and the door is open for Dollar bulls to make a move into the end of the week. On the other side of DXY, USD/CAD remains of interest as the pair has re-tested the psychological level of 1.4000. - js
S&P500: VIX confirmed new Bull Cycle, eyes 9,800.S&P500 is on excellent bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 66.480, MACD = 76.110, ADX = 38.627) and has technically fulfilled all conditions to extend this recovery and transition into a new Bull Cycle. VIX shows with its massive spike and then aggressive retreat that the correction's bottom is in and is in fact similar to March 2020 (COVID) and March 2009 (subprime crisis). The Bull Cycles after those were similar, the smallest was +105.62%. In accordance to that, we have a long term TP = 9,800.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
US30 Recently will breakoutUS3O A new forecast a new downtrend zone
Forecast from Mr Martin11 Date 14 May 2025
US30 Bearish Pattern Analysis Currently showing a bearish structure The price appears to be nearing a breakout to the downside.
Targets to watch
1st Target 40,500
2nd Target: 39,500
if the bearish breakout confirms (possibly with strong volume and a close below recent support), the price may push toward these lower support levels. If you'd like, I can help you with a chart annotation or deeper technical analysis (e.g., support/resistance levels, RSI, MACD, Fibonacci retracement).
you may find more details in the Chart Thanks Good Luck Traders.
Clean Energy: The Power That Will Shape Our FutureEnergy is the lifeblood of civilization—it fuels innovation, sustains economies, and powers every aspect of modern life. As demand skyrockets, we face a crucial decision: continue relying on fossil fuels that damage our planet or embrace clean energy solutions that pave the way for a sustainable future.
Despite geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and shifting policies around ESG and the Paris Climate Agreement, the clean energy sector remains unstoppable. While industries like digital finance, artificial intelligence, robotics, space exploration, quantum computing, and cloud infrastructure are experiencing unprecedented growth, they all hinge on one fundamental resource: energy. Without it, progress would stall.
Yet, as we race toward technological advancement, one truth remains: our planet’s well-being is inextricably linked to our energy choices. Sustainability is not just an option—it is a necessity.
The Four Elements of Clean Energy
Nature has already gifted us four forces of life—the sun, wind, water, and earth—each holding the potential to drive a clean energy revolution.
Solar Energy ☀️: Every hour, the sun showers Earth with more energy than humanity consumes in a year. Advances in photovoltaic technology are making solar power more efficient and affordable than ever. Countries leading the solar revolution—like China, Germany, and the U.S.—are setting a precedent for global energy transformation.
Wind Energy 🌬️: Harnessing the wind is one of the most effective ways to generate clean electricity. Offshore wind farms are growing at an exponential rate, proving that sustainable energy is not limited to land. The beauty of wind energy? It is limitless.
Hydropower 🌊: Water is power. Hydroelectric dams, tidal energy, and wave power offer continuous energy supply, proving to be one of the most reliable renewable sources available.
Geothermal Energy 🌍: Deep within the earth, heat energy is waiting to be tapped. Countries like Iceland have perfected the art of using geothermal power for electricity and heating, demonstrating that sustainable energy is not just a dream—it’s already reality.
Overcoming Challenges: The Resilience of Clean Energy
Yes, clean energy faces obstacles—tariff disputes, political instability, and corporate resistance. But progress is relentless. Costs of renewables are dropping, supply chains are adapting, and governments know that fossil fuels will not sustain global economies forever.
The Paris Climate Agreement keeps nations accountable, pushing for policies that support decarbonization and incentivize clean energy innovation. Meanwhile, ESG-driven investors are demanding sustainable business practices, forcing corporations to rethink their energy strategies.
Even legacy industries like oil and gas are shifting toward renewables, investing billions in solar, wind, and hydrogen technology. This is not just a trend—it is the future.
A Future Powered by Clean Energy
Imagine cities illuminated by solar grids, transportation fueled by hydrogen, and industries driven by wind power. Clean energy is not just about reducing emissions—it is about progress, prosperity, and survival.
The global energy demand is rising, but so is innovation. If space exploration, AI, robotics, and quantum computing are to thrive, clean energy must be at the core. And it will be—because the world is waking up to its necessity.
A cleaner, brighter future is not wishful thinking—it is already unfolding. The only question is: will we accelerate the transition, or hesitate in the face of change?
The time to act is now.
NASDAQ:CLNE NASDAQ:CETY NASDAQ:ICLN NASDAQ:CELS NASDAQ:GWE AMEX:PBD TVC:DXY
US30: Bullish Breakout on the Horizon – Next Target 44,000? US30: Bullish Breakout on the Horizon – Next Target 44,000?
Since our last analysis, US30 has climbed +2.7%, rising from 39,300 to 40,400.
The price is nearing a breakout from a large bullish triangle, which could trigger an even bigger upward move.
After hitting a low of 36,500 on April 7, US30 has been steadily rising, forming a strong triangle pattern. A breakout could start a powerful wave toward 44,000.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Previous analysis:
US30 Breakout from Symmetrical Triangle – Bullish Targets EyedUS30 (Dow Jones) has successfully broken out of a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, signaling a shift toward bullish momentum. The breakout is occurring after a strong recovery from April lows, with higher lows supporting upward price pressure.
🔹 Chart Structure:
Symmetrical triangle with a clean breakout above descending resistance.
Series of higher lows indicating accumulation.
Bullish breakout confirmed with price pushing above the 40,580 zone.
🔑 Key Levels:
Current Price: 40,586
Breakout Confirmation Level: 40,580
Immediate Resistance/TP1: 42,762
Major Resistance/TP2: 43,924
Support Zone: 38,950
Invalidation/Stop Level: Below 38,950
✅ Bullish Confluence Factors:
Breakout of symmetrical triangle pattern
Higher lows indicate bullish strength and accumulation
Momentum shift visible on lower timeframes
Positive correlation with improving US equity market sentiment
Anticipation of dovish Fed tone could boost equities
🧠 Fundamental Context:
Market is cautiously optimistic ahead of FOMC this week; dovish stance expected due to recent soft economic indicators.
Earnings season tailwinds and lower bond yields support index gains.
Ongoing political and tariff-related headlines may cause volatility, but technical breakout remains in focus.
💡 Trade Idea:
Bias: Bullish
Entry: On successful retest of 40,580 or continuation above 40,600
TP1: 42,762
TP2: 43,924
Stop Loss: Below 38,950
📌 Note: Watch for pullbacks to triangle resistance-turned-support. FOMC and US macro data releases midweek can impact momentum.
Nifty Analysis EOD - May 14, 2025 - Wednesday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD - May 14, 2025 - Wednesday 🔴
Day Ends with Directional Uncertainty from Nifty
🔍 Nifty Summary
Nifty opened with a 35-point gap-up, displaying early strength by slowly climbing toward 24,747, which aligned with the critical resistance zone of 24,768–24,800 and the CPR top. But that’s where the rally halted.
From the day’s high, it reversed lower, testing both the Previous Day Low (PDL) and Previous Week High (PWH). Interestingly, the index took support there and managed to close right at the CPR, underlining indecision.
The day was marked by broad consolidation within a 232-point range, with no strong directional follow-through. Price stayed majorly around the CPR zone, signaling a range-bound session with underlying uncertainty.
🕵️ Intraday Walk
☀️ Opened with 35-point gap-up; gradually climbed to 24,747.
🚫 Hit resistance at 24,768–24,800 and reversed.
🔽 Fell to test PDL and PWH zone (24535 area).
🛑 Found support and bounced back to close at CPR.
🔄 A day filled with range-bound movement and no clear trend.
📏 Inside Bar Pattern Watch (Daily Chart)
A 3-day Inside Bar Structure is forming:
📅 May 12: Mother Candle
📅 May 13: Baby candle (ignore 29-point upper wick)
📅 May 14 (Today): Another baby candle within May 13 (ignore 12-point lower wick)
This nested inside bar scenario could trigger a directional breakout soon.
🔼 Upside Levels:
If today’s high (24,767) breaks:Target Zones: 24,800 → 24,882 → 24,940
🔽 Downside Levels:
If today’s low (24,535) breaks:Target Zones: 24,480 → 24,400 → 24,365 → 24,330
🔎 Key Fib Observations
📏 Today’s high (24,747) = ~50% retracement of May 13’s candle → signals rise-on-sell tone
📉 Today’s close (24,640) = ~50% retracement of today’s candle → neutral-to-positive bias
These confluences reflect a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, waiting for a breakout.
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Candle Type: Small-bodied candle inside previous day’s range
Today’s OHLC:▫️ Open: 24,613.80▫️ High: 24,767.55▫️ Low: 24,535.55▫️ Close: 24,666.90 (▲+88.55 / +0.36%)
🔍 Key Observations:
⚠️ No directional expansion, despite higher high & low
✅ Inside bar formation continues
✅ Close at candle midpoint → Neutral, with slight positive bias
📊 Sign of energy build-up for a potential breakout
🛡 Gladiator Strategy Update
Strategy Parameters
ATR: 349.73
IB Range: 169.70 → 📏 Medium IB
Market Structure: ⚖️ Balanced
Trade Highlights
⚠️ No trade triggered
💼 Total Trades: 0
🔢 Support & Resistance Levels
🟩 Resistance Zones:
24,730
24,768 ~ 24,800
24,882
24,980 ~ 25,000
25,100 ~ 25,128
25,180 ~ 25,212
🟥 Support Zones:
24,882
24,800 ~ 24,768
24,730
24,660
24,590
24,530 ~ 24,480
24,461
24,420 ~ 24,400
24,365 ~ 24,330
24,245 ~ 24,240
🔮 What’s Next?
A 3-day Inside Bar Formation generally signals a volatility contraction phase. The tighter the coil, the stronger the potential breakout.
If 24,767 breaks, bulls might regain momentum.If 24,535 fails, we may retest deeper supports from 24,480 downward.
📌 Patience over prediction — let the range resolve.
💬 Final Thoughts
“Inside bars are calm before the storm. Stay alert — breakout decides the next play.”
✏️ DisclaimerThis is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.