Daily Analysis: Tech weak today, as capital rotates defensively.We discuss all the major indices and markets.
SPY
QQQ
DXY
Yields
Gold
Bitcoin
Inflation
Economy
When to Buy Real Estate Investing in 2023This video is my strategic analysis for when I will be looking to buy my next real estate investment property. I use the Cash-Shiller Index, CPI, and charting techniques of mean reversion to create indicators I will follow in the years ahead as real estate trends downward following the rise in mortgage rates and fall in home prices.
A SP500 low has NEVER happened before a recession. Since 1969, these events have happened in this order 100% of the time.
1) Unemployment bottoms and begins to rise
2) Recession
3) #SP500 makes a new low
Watch this video for a better explanation.
USINTR - still in a upside trend ( wth 30yr backtesting)
*High winning rate with backtesting by my strategy
Right now ECONOMICS:USINTR is still in the upside trend.
This means that it has been consistently performing poorly and may not be a good investment opportunity in the short term.
🔔 Be prepared for reversals.
It's advisable to be patient and wait for the downward trend to occur before the risk market confirms a bullish market again.
Good luck!
Where there is smoke there is 🔥 UK 🏠 prices continue to fallEveryone hates paying higher prices for the things they need, so Nationwide reporting that houses continue to get cheaper is welcome news.
Listen if you got shilled into overpaying for your 🏠 have a chat to your agent but it’s okay if you can afford it… However most can’t. The Bank of England's ZIRP and QE debt-fueled housing bubble Ponzi scheme of the last 13 years is over, and it isn't coming back.
Market bottom September 2024Putting on the same chart the S&P and fed rate the last three market bottoms happened a year and a half after the fed funds rate peaks. (589 days avg.) That would put the next one in September 2024
The correlation between US Interest Rates and The US Dollar (DXYInterest rates and USD strength are positively correlated.
An increase in US interest rates will typically result in a strengthening of the USD.
The reason is...
Foreign investors tend to flock to US assets, such as bonds and fixed bank rates for higher returns.
Higher demand for US assets drives up their price, and as a result, the USD strengthens.
As for the relationship between USD strength and US stock market prices, it is more complex and can have both positive and negative effects.
On one hand, a strong USD can make US exports less competitive, reducing demand and potentially leading to a decrease in corporate profits.
This can weigh on stock prices. On the other hand, a strong USD can attract foreign investment into US stocks, driving up demand and prices.
There are other reasons for the correlation such as:
Interest rate differentials
When interest rates in one country are higher than in another, capital tends to flow to the country with the higher interest rates.
This results in an increase in demand for the currency of the country with higher interest rates, strengthening its currency i.e US Dollar.
Inflation expectations
Interest rates are also closely linked to inflation expectations.
When interest rates rise, it is generally expected that inflation will rise too, which makes the currency more attractive to investors.
Trade flows
The USD is the currency used in most international trade transactions, and as a result, changes in trade flows can have a significant impact on the value of the USD.
Bottom has never occurred before a recession. 1) Recessions (Grey/Green rectangles) have always occurred after the unemployment rate reached a low and began to curve back up (Blue line).
2) The bottom has never been in before a recession (orange circle).
#SPX #NASDAQ #Crypto #Bitcoin #Recession #SPY
SPX Monthly Log Chart since 1967US initial jobless claims HISTORICALLY low.
Tops in US equities are forged at those levels.
FED will only "try" to save the day AFTER initial jobless claims breakout.
That is the "last nail in the coffin" for growth stocks.
#fintwit #spx #fed #fomc $arkk #meta
US inflation - US treasury Rate compared with the seventiesHi All
This fraction of seventies is already for 1 year identical.
US inflation rate minus US treasury rate
On the down-low Money Supply factsThe chart shows two recent and unprecedented occurrences that may lead to an outcome of equally unprecedented proportions. In the past year the money supply
peaked and is still negative over a year since
reached peak liquidity
Causes include the effects of the pandemic, asset conversions spurred by tax reforms and corporate buybacks, rising unemployment and housing prices amid interest hikes , and government security buybacks initiated due to bond market stress.
This general and massive sell-off at peak valuation with no likely intent or ability to spend in the near term at a time of impending stagnation forebodes a bearish outlook for markets worldwide.
I Think I Might See What Mr. Burry Was Talking About...I think this is a pretty clear pattern in housing prices. Past performance may not indicate future results, but I'm confident that a pattern with this many cycles and signs of instability at the right time will hold.
How a Housing Market Crash Equals New Stock Market HighsTraders,
I believe this chart is so important it warrants revisiting the data. Indeed, the fed has to be cognizant of this same data and is most certainly is watching it closely. Therefore, we must do the same. In this video, I am going to explain why the housing market data, even though it's week, supports my thesis of a blow-off top in the stock markets this summer.
Stew
⛓️ 🔗 Useful Links 🔗 ⛓️
My Housing Market Chart:
www.tradingview.com
Housing prices yet to adjust to reality of high interest ratesHousing prices yet to adjust to reality of high interest rates
Housing prices can be sticky and take multi-years to adjust
If the interest rates persist for few years, we can see the downward pressure for next few year
Just to be clear this is a multi year cycle.
USINTR: Interest Rates are toppingUSINTR has hit the golden pocket ratio from 3.75%-5.37%. Monthly RSI in overbought territory. Expecting a series of smaller .25% interest rate hikes with USINTR finally topping out at 5-5.5%.
An outlook of what to expect the next few months.For reference only, expecting Fed to raise rate to 5.25 in the next 3 meetings, and then pivot.
Inflation is expected to peak.
FORECAST for 2023 is finally set PROJECTION 2023 low june 18 2022 forecast called for drop see dec 2021 projection a Panic low due oct 4th to the 20th focus on the 10th target was 3510/3490 . I also gave you the aug turn see august 2022 forecast peak and panic .We have now ended the last bull phase within the fractals and in spiral in time as well . We should see a break down and it should be rather sharp by APRIL 2/9 we should be near the oct low with a nice but muted rally into may 10th and then the last LEG down into june 18th targets are from 3170 to 2987 . then a year end rally into sept 2 . 2023 after this date we will decline back into mid oct to form a long term base best of trades WAVETIMER
US Inflation YoYI've been looking at this chart for a few minutes, really charts don't lie. What's the probable big move of Powell???
Bitcoin & Consumer Confidence Index by University of Michigan⚫️Update:
US Consumer Confidence Index by University of Michigan⚫️
Index with a bear channel breakout on the way up - needs to be confirmed above 65.2 dear Bitcoin and Crypto Nation 🚨🚨🚨
Exciting to see if a BTC🟠 #bullish run begins afterwards
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗
Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
Eggs may be making a high. This is just for the purposes of testing a strategy theory. I have no bets directly linked to this analysis.
The theory is, when something makes a false sell-off and goes into a parabolic spike; it will tend to make a high around 161 or 220. Breaking over this zone typically indicates a breakout which way imply far higher prices.
Topping pattern here would typically give us a drop of at least 50%.
How to Reduce Inflation in South Africa in 2023! - 5 WAYS!How to Reduce Inflation in South Africa in 2023! - 5 WAYS!
I got this excellent question today from someone Which I thought was an important question to answer considering the state of the Country of South Africa.
Hi everyone. In SA I always wonder how an ordinary person "employed or not" can contribute to bring positive change to our inflation?
A. Here is my answer...
As an economist, I can say in theory it is possible to bring positive change to the inflation rates but in reality – with corruption – I’m not sure it’s that easy.
Also, it’s the butterfly effect where we need to come together as a community (country) to work towards lowering inflation.
So on the one hand, there needs to be less spending unfortunately. Here are a few measures I can think of…
#1. Lower non-essential spending.
People need to stop spending unnecessarily on products and services and instead start saving more for their future. This will hamper and reduce the impact of inflation.
#2: Support your local places!
This world is becoming highly globalised not only where the rich get richer but the TOP stores and shops get richer too.
As a community, we need to start supporting the local businesses that have great quality products and services to.
We need to be more friendly to each other and help spread awareness to the small but great man.
This will help stimulate the local economy and bring on more job creation and economic growth.
#3: More investments in education
Education is key to help bring personal development and skills training. We need to educate our fellow people on business skills, high income skills, programming, AI, machine learning, savings, risk averse investments and encourage more businesses to help grow.
#4: Save more to invest more
When inflation is high it means people were spending uncontrollably which pushed up demand and lowered supply. Instead, we should encourage more savings in stocks, property, trading, funds, and personal finances to reduce the effects of inflation.
Instead of drinking sorrows away, spending on games to bide time – focus on less spending and more saving for the future – reducing the debt levels.
#5: Invest in renewable energy
Load Shedding is here to stay. And so we need to try to support more renewable energy initiatives that come about. Solar, wind and gas. This will definitely help reduce the cost of energy and curb inflation.
As I said, we can only do our part and hope for the best. We are a nation with hope, optimism and trust. But instead of just trusting the government we should also learn to support and trust our local businesses and methods to living a better life.
Hope that helps.
