SPX: S&P 500 Rallies 1.5% as Traders Load Up in Hopes of Rate Cut. Bad News Is Good News?

Friday’s market-shattering jobs report was likely the reason for Monday’s pop — slowing job growth could prompt the Fed to lower rates next month.

📈 Stocks Bounce Back — And Then Some

• The S&P 500 (SPX) surged 1.5% Monday as traders and investors got their mojo back after a stock-sinking NFP report, betting weak job growth means rate cuts are back on the table.
• The Dow Jones jumped 585 points, or 1.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite outpaced everyone with a 2% gain, shaking off Friday’s shock early in pre-market Monday deals with futures high up in the green.
• Small-caps joined the rally for once, leading gains across sectors in a rare show of strength — a good sign market breadth may be back.

🏷️ Market Repricing After NFP Shock

• After Friday’s big miss — just 73,000 new jobs and major downward revisions to May and June — traders now see a 92.1% chance of a September cut, up from 38% pre-NFP.
• The data painted a much cooler labor market than the Fed’s own narrative suggested last week. Maybe because Powell was still working off job numbers that never actually existed (like, a whole 258,000 of them).
• That disconnect could mean the Fed's next move could be a pivot, not just a pause. And markets are clearly onboard with the idea.

🤧 Allergy Season but for Stocks?

• Despite Monday’s bounce, investors are entering a tricky stretch. Historically, August is the worst month for the Dow since 1988 — and a problem for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
• Still, the momentum shift post-NFP is hard to ignore. With the “bad news is good news” trade back in style, bulls may be willing to risk a choppy August.
• Bottom line? The Fed may finally give markets what they want. But with Trump tossing out BLS heads like it’s reality TV, don’t bet the farm on data stability just yet.