Sold @ 254.1 SL 255.7 TP 250.6
Natural Gas CFD forum
NG1! Short-Covering Rally, contract renewal | Aug 27, 2025Odds:
40% to $2.40-$2.53 (Cuban lower $2.53; 45% if $2.67 breaks, 1-3 days)
60% to $3.00-$3.11 (57 EMA $2.81, 1-4 days)
Signal: NG1! at $2.852, above 57 EMA (Big Beluga $2.65). EIA +13 Bcf, short-covering, and green volume (1000-Tick) eye $3.00-$3.11 by Sep 1, but red volume (12H+) and storage push $2.53 if $2.67 breaks.
Trade:
Long Hold long ($2.80-$2.844), add 20% at $2.86-$2.89 (target $3.00-$3.05, 1-4 days). Stop at $2.65.
Hedge (20%): Short if $2.67 breaks (target $2.53, 1-3 days). Stop at $2.80.
Watch price momentum.
Good hunting! #NaturalGas #NG1
NG1! so far pivot held. Lets see if can get a follow on the gap up
NG1! Rebound Rally | Aug 26, 2025Odds:
43% to $2.40-$2.50 (Cuban lower $2.53; 48% if $2.67 breaks, 1-3 days)
57% to $3.00-$3.16 (57 EMA $2.82, 1-4 days)
Signal: NG1! at $2.73, at 1D DP (Big Beluga $2.65). EIA +13 Bcf, green volume (5min/15min/1H/3H/1000-Tick), and seasonal strength eye $3.00-$3.16 by Sep 1, but red volume (5H+) and storage push $2.50 if $2.67 breaks.
Trade:
Long: Hold long ($2.80-$2.844), add 20% at $2.67-$2.70 (target $3.00-$3.05, 1-4 days). Stop at $2.65.
Hedge (20%): Short if $2.67 breaks (target $2.50, 1-3 days). Stop at $2.76.
Watch volume, price momentum.
Good hunting! #NaturalGas #NG1
NG1! Mixed Signals, choppy action, gap and crack & fill the gap, | Aug 25, 2025Odds:
46% to $2.40-$2.55 (Cuban lower $2.55; 51% if $2.67 breaks, 1-3 days)
54% to $3.00-$3.16 (57 EMA $2.84, 1-4 days)
Signal: NG1! at $2.67, at pivot (Big Beluga $2.65). EIA +13 Bcf, green volume (1H/15min), and seasonal strength eye $3.00-$3.16 by Sep 1, but red volume (3H+) and storage push $2.50 if $2.67 fails.
Trade:
Long Hold long add 20% at $2.67-$2.70 (target $3.00-$3.05, 1-4 days). Stop at $2.65.
Hedge (20%): Short if $2.67 breaks (target $2.50, 1-3 days). Stop at $2.76.
Watch volume, price momentum, and heating season shift.
Good hunting! #NaturalGas #NG1
NG1! This post is about the risk of 2std movements in the next 30 days. NOT a directional forecast.TL;DR
Don’t see a lot of potential for large price movements in the next 30 days. EU storage is on the edge of concerningly low - which could mean upside if it gets worse.
Otherwise, US storage seems just above normal, although build-up is slower than expected. US gas is extremely cheap relative to EU, but this has not historically sparked large moves.
Not sure why price has been going down. Weather is a gap in my knowledge, but I looked at CDD and HDD, and couldn’t find a correlation to large movements in the last 15 years. Frankly I have no clue on geopolitics, but a peace deal in Russia would definitely drop prices.
Indicators I pay attention to:
1. Weekly US natural gas storage residual: +200 bcf. Nothing extreme, but ample storage limits upside moves.
2. Weekly US natural gas consumption residual: -38 bcf. Slightly slower build up, but not concerning.
3. EU natural has storage residual: -134 TWh. Edge of concerningly low. Could be catalyst for upside if it continues dropping.
4. US natural gas vs EU natural gas prices: Very cheap. Generally not a catalyst for large moves unless it’s very expensive.
5. US Natural Gas Volatility Index: normal levels.
NG1! Last week managed money increased long positions
When sentiment is very negative the price may increase
NG1! seems it want that $2.30 gapBought @ 245.3
NATURALGAS1! short position CMP 248.40sl 249 ( 2 hours candle frame)
Target1 - 234.80
Target2 - 225.60