USO trade ideas
Red alert: Idiots are selling! [Entertainment & lesson]We have a code red. I repeat, we have a code red.
I can barely breathe! 🤣
I'm crying
After USO had their reverse split, the price gapped up.
You can check it on robintrack, first there was a strong decline which might be all the people so wiped out they could only afford <8 shares (LOL), but then even after this it keeps going down!
robintrack.net
It only went up before you can check for yourself. Since february they have only kept buying, the number of holders line never went down even for a day no matter what.
And now even after the initial drop that might be explained for other reasons number of holders went down by ~7%
There is only 1 explanation: These masterminds thought the price really went up, and they outsmarted institutions, and have locked up profit 😆
Now I don't know if Robinhood had an erronous display, or if they only show the gains since the split maybe (so investors saw green and thought they got their money back), perhaps some are doing "automated trading"?
All I know is the price rallied up because of a reverse split and a group of people known to be stupid and have been strictly buying for 2 months without even 1 day of pause, have started selling.
These can't be humans... They must be... something else...
Hey so if a really solid company made a 1 > 10 split all the animals would be aggressively buying thinking the price dropped 90%?
Making money in markets isn't that hard if you take it seriously, just look what kind of absolute imbeciles we are playing against!
Surely USO can't go to $0... RIGHT???The title was at least my reasoning on the trade...
On April 20th, as the big news was that Oil was quickly becoming "free" I wanted to participate in this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. My preferred instrument to trade oil has always been USO as it is an equity, optionable, and highly liquid. At the time USO was trading at 3.8. I decided to sell the 2.5 June Put Options as my trade. I reasoned that such a big fund as USO "could not go to $0" and I was OK with owning it at 2.5. I might have to wait but people are eventually going to burn off all this oil and need more in the future.
On April 21st, a day after my trade, a headline read "OIL, One Of The Largest Oil ETNs, Will Be Shut Down And Liquidated". Wow, so oil ETNs *CAN* stop trading and go to $0.
The next day April 22nd, USO announced that it would be doing a reverse 1-to-8 split. This would severely complicate my trade were I to receive fractional options and/or shares. Annoying.
Overall I am not all that worried about the prospects of this trade. I was actually given a bit of a lucky reprieve in that when I took the trade my initial order only got a partial fill. As my remaining order sat there outstanding I decided to just close the rest of it. This momentary decision of general risk aversion fortuitously kept me small; small enough to be able to sit back as an intrigued participant rather than a nervous stake holder.
As Carl Icahn said last week as he became the counterparty to the negative oil futures delivery this is a "once in-a-lifetime bargain". I think despite the FUD he is right. Despite the unique pressures of current events our modern civilization's thirst for energy has not fundamentally changed for the long term.
Good news everyone!Robinhood investors are back! More than 200,000 holders now ^^
More souls to harvest.
This reminds me of videos on youtube "Bronze 5 fails" where they make fun of the bottom 10-20% of players (game is league of legends), and they get millions of views. Players are absolutely awful and it is hilarous to watch.
200k holders... 10 million robinhood users... Bottom 2%?
I don't know if those awful investors are the bottom 20% or 80%, sometimes seems like the later but I think alot of people just stay away from stocks anyway.
"Young investors rush into struggling oil ETF that isn’t even tracking the price of oil anymore"
www.cnbc.com
"“A low price handle is always a retail trap,” Davi told CNBC in a phone interview." Haha you don't say.
Those wise cheap buy investors don't even know what they are buying.
CL1! is at $10 now, a worry might be that as USO rolls to the next month it turns negative.
They used to sell half 2 weeks before the last trading day and the other half at the end I think.
If Oil turns negative we cannot short it anymore, and good buy contango profit.
I don't know how big their impact on negative prices was, probably big looking at how big of a hit they took.
CME itself ordered them to limit their size, they're now 20% in June 40% in July 20% August 20% September, which I guess is something closer to what dumb money wants. So they win in a way. In another way they don't win because they'll lose everything.
www.chicagobusiness.com
If CME made them reduce their size... They must have had a part to play in -40... And the CME even saw it coming and warned of negative prices.
Professionals have made $300 millions betting against retail... And all I made was a few hundreds...
www.cnbc.com
Owners of the fund are making a 1-8 reverse split to stay attractive to ignorant retail investors.
www.prnewswire.com
The tragedy of a fund dropped hard even when Oil bounced way up...
And guess what the 29 their price will gap way up and go to $17 wait they were aiming for Oil price? XDDD Already down to 10 bucks but I guess next months are up above 17.
Yum yum, I hope they grow. If they can keep selling the front month to buy the continuous next and hold 20% of open interest that would be great. Push 1! down, push 2! up. Come on bullbros we need strong support we can't let the bears win so keep buying at these cheap prices.
Only 2 years ago they were ridiculous opportunities when mainstreet got into altcoins, and already we have this, the difference is this scam looks like it will last a while.
Expecting more money to be poured into experienced traders pockets from retail in the future.
Not very skilled and even average investors are at high risk in those uncertain highly volatile times, sad, there is some really nearly free money to be made.
So as I was saying, bottom 20% players... Say we eliminate the bottom 5% that are disabled, this gives the bottom 25% - 5% ==> 75 to 90 IQ (with average 100) and 5% are below 75 which is disability. 20% of the pop is in the 75-90 range damn. 1/5 of voters. 10% 75-85 10% 85-90.
Not sure they should be allowed to invest. And maybe they're not the ones at all...? Kinda seems weird to imagine rocket scientists buying garbage like this.
I really don't feel sorry for them. They'll get their money back via government help that takes from the smart, and they behave like animals and are disrepectful and everything and commit so many crimes and they laugh at smart people like being smart is weird and risible.
Really interesting story. And I'm very positive about volatility, strong moves in 1 direction, contangos.
Also I wonder what happens when this ETF has to liquidate... Just go short !2? XD
On April 23, CME ordered the funds not to exceed 15,000 long futures contracts for June. For July 2020, the limit is 78,000 long futures contracts while for August it’s 50,000 and for September 35,000.
They say they have a total of 150k, if the limit in June is 15k that's 10% not 20... w/e.
Can't trust journies.
Not a huge contango here, well it's huge but I mean compared to 1! and 2!
I wonder when they are going to sell July. Should I call and pretend to be an investor 😁?
Oh I know how to convince them "I looked at the RSI and MACD and I noticed they were very oversold I also noted the price recovered congratulations"
May Robinhood holders go to 1 million! May Trump print billions to bailout US Oil producers!
🐂🐄🐮 => ⚙️grinder⚙️ => 🥩🥩🥩
Yummy!
Run as far as you can from this fundOil likely to go negative again. I saw a ton of young investors piling into uso and I don’t they understand how the fund works. I had a friend ask me he should but this and I told him no. First of all you can see over the long run the primary trend is down and I put a chart of crude oil on as well so you can see that it not only goes down faster than crude but has less upside. This fund buys oil futures contracts and never receives delivery on the oil so they consistently have to lose money to renew the contract for the next month, it’s not like slv or gld where they actually buy and hold physical silver and gold, this fund will consistently lose money. It is down over 90% so I don’t want anyone try to play oil with this fund. I don’t recommend anyone play oil now unless you really understand what you’re doing. The oil futures are likely to go negative again so it’s gonna be a race to get your money out without having to take delivery which won’t be profitable for most. If you play it right you maybe able to make money on the short side of oil futures. Long term oil is going way up with inflation but we’re gonna need to see the economy reopened and some other thing.
USO Consolidation Buying - MAY Break-out After shorting USO, I have now turned my sentiment around and am LONG on this ETF. Let me explain as I'm sure many people here would question my position.
1) The bottom I believe has been reached as we are seeing strong support in the $2.40-$2.50s range. On Friday 24th, I saw extremely large blocks of USO being acquired - these were Hedge Funds buying.
2) The CME forced USO to change its Futures structure to go out several more months, stating they could not hold the majority of Futures for the 2 primary months out. Now why would they do that exactly? Because they know the market is going to turn around very soon in Oil Futures, and because someone was buying in, hmmm.
3) I saw an article on Friday evening stating that the TRUMP Admin will start buying Oil Futures and Securities in May to boost the price of Oil, also they are considering tariffs on Imported Oil coming, if production was not eased globally. This would be huge for the O&G industry, and I can tell you, that the FED is not going to let Saudi & Russia put 10's of millions of O&G jobs out.
4) Saudi and Russia already started lowering production in Oil, a full week before May, like they said they would. Also, another indication of what's coming.
5) New Shares restricted, and Reverse split. I actually, see these 2 things as positive for USO. For obvious reasons, they will be taking shares out of the market, and as Crude starts to climb its way back to the 30's, the Bulls will be buying in.
So, to conclude. I believe getting in before May 1 would be a great entry point, and riding it up until OIL gets back into the 30's would be the strategy. At that point, I will take another glance at everything and see where we're at, at that point. GL everyone.
JP - OUT
Potential long term view of some key marketsUSO: Line of support under $0.00 (if that's possible). This line could be forming basis for up sloping PF and the lower parallel
CL1!: Biggest question is if median line holds this drop or if a decade of sub $0.00 prices is setting up. If next several months hold above the red median line then price could move off it. If April and ensuing months close below the median line the a test of last weeks low could be possible.
SPX: If current levels holds then another try at 3340 early in coming year.
XAUUSD: It looks like Gold is bullish well through 2020 and into 2021 maybe target in $2060 area
Is Crude Oil ETF USO Forming a Bottom?After a prolonged slide, crude oil ETF USO seems to be forming a bottom at $2.50 based on RSI pattern on 4 hr chart. However, there may be more room to go down before the bottom is complete. If a break to the upside in the oil prices to occur, it will be driven by positive news of OPEC + production cuts, as well as reopening of the economy. Investors may need to see actual inventories to go down before putting their money into Oil.
Is This Oil Fund is Drilling for Double Dip or what?I changed my position on USO. I think it's going below last low and headed for a double-dip.
Big institutional players always want to take price to the next best liquidity and to me, the purple area I highlighted is the target.
There's going to be panic down there so the selling will be massive which of course best time to buy long
What do you think?
$USO $3.5c 4/24 Short-Term SwingUSO continues to follow the purple downtrend I drew last week. The short term bull trend couldn't hold and today opened below the support levels (shown as 1st the horizonal purple line). I was able to get cheap $3.5 calls at market open, and could've taken a 75% profit but decided to chase more gains (bad move) and the market closed with my options up about 30% instead.
I'll be watching market open tomorrow to see if it'll be possible to squeeze some more profits out before selling. If not, I'll be selling before I get into the red.
USO Long, option trade with big stop bufferImportant Note: USO long term target is "0". It is only good for short term trading. If it sounds strange, please google the reason.
Existing Condition:
1. Double bottom pattern
2. Breakaway Gap(G1), trend line break.
Stock Entry between: open and under 2.80
Stop: 2.2 (down to new low)
Target1: 4.2; risk/reward=1:2
Target2: 5; risk/reward=1:3
Prediction: Next Breakaway Gap(G2), next trend line break.
In option trade, I bought 2021 Jan Call Butterfly C3/6/9 (Delta 0.26), limit 0.47;
Sell P2 (Delta -0.21) Limit 0.46;
Total simulate long 47 shares stock for free.
Stop below 2.
According to Today's oil futures price: (Following futures could be found in Tradingview Futures list. In other platform, the symbol might be different.)
Jun (CLM2020) from $13 to $18;
Jul (CLN2020) from $18 to $23;
DEC (CLZ2020) from $28 to $30;
I estimate Oil price will go up from the bottom in June .
This is a trading school homework. I need 6 months to practice trading plan.
If you like it, thank you for your support. Please use SIM/Demo account to try it, until my trading plans get high winning rate.
USO - Long Hold. Amazing what is happening with OIL. especially USO. I know there is a lot of fear in the market...but imagine you were sitting on some cash (cause you listened to Matt about financial markets being overbought and you protected yourself).
Imagine you bought USO at this level...imagine in 10-15-20 years what that position could look like?
Sure we could all go electric, not happening anytime soon. Plus everything is made of plastics (reality).
Sure we could run out of oil...wouldn't that drive prices up?
Sure we could go lower, more upside than downside from my analysis.
I see this as an amazing place to buy this equity, I will ride whatever drawdown comes and be holding for 10+ years.
Good luck out there...these are crazy times. but acutely crazy and we shall all be on our feet again soon(ish) I hope!
-Matthew Armstrong - CFTe
Retail idiots paying rounds of drinks, but expect regulations...There are ways to make a lot of money with controlled risk with wti futures (very limited if done right but don't try if you aren't very knowledgeable in this area), but who is paying for all of this free money?
Altruistic retail investors of course!
A few weeks ago there was a massive influx of retail money into Oil long ETFs.
USO holds I heard about 1 third (!) of open interest for the front month (all long).
I think they were part of the reason why May went to minus 40 (they had to rollover).
There is still a huge contango between June & July, and as every one knows retail NEVER sells.
Their warcry is "You don't loose if you don't sell", therefore this situation can last a while until the ETF collapses completely, or the SEC/CFTC/FINRA shuts it down.
There are opportunities to make money, for example with the big contango, as well as potentially when this mega whale rollsover their contract, or when they * joy cry * have to liquidate all assets (imagine the shock to Oil futures!).
I heard people say that many of their friends are calling them all excited to speak about buying Oil, and they bought this garbage ETF.
The thing is these reptilian brains for some reason think they are buying spot Oil, or maybe even physical, they have NO CLUE what they are buying.
They're buying contracts for a specific month. And creating a big problem. And are going to get decimated.
I don't know if they are buying because of some random indicator or because they think Oil is cheap or because they are simply programmed to go against trends the more strong they are the more they go against...
The ETF is losing more than Oil.
LOOK AT THIS:
The ETF since its creation goes down more than Oil and goes up less. These cretins are bleeding money constantly and happily buying more and more.
Why do they have to be so enthusiastic about negative sum games? Bitcoin that produces nothing and burns money via exchange & miner fees, this....
Stupid things can last a long time, but I have a hunch this won't last much longer, we are in the capitulation period, huge exponential influx of dumb money, on Robinhood alone 165,000 holders. As traders pile on the opportunity the huge gap will lessen and it won't be as easy to profit from.
It's only interesting because the gap is so enormous.
From the FT:
And the gap right now is 33% for only a 1 month difference (was 43% hours earlier maybe it's over very soon).
If the difference in price becomes too small there probably will be the chance to go short around the expiration date for june, and short when the ETF has to liquidate, and there probably will be more other scams like this. Millions of hurray shouting retail investors are doing all sorts of dumb stuff and ignoring advice and all this money they will lose, billions and billions, has to go somewhere, might as well end in our pockets.
We also have russia & the saudis on our side, they're so going to run us companies out of business.
When they realise they got fleeced, they'll cry, and it will be a sensitive subject, and the useless regulators might strike again.
If it's just a few hundred thousand buffons getting scammed it might not be big enough for regulators to make big changes, hopefully.
But with the internet, the much lower costs, the way investing all your money in anything got made so easy, more and more of this will happen, and at some point some big rules will be put in place, and not just warnings (like those help, they keep repeating so often it's irritating "wow watch out this is very risky make sure you understand bla bla bla"), perhaps even a complete interdiction to participate in markets for retail... It would be a shame for the next generations, I don't worry for myself by then I certainly will be able to just take the professional status, but what about new people with potential?
Perhaps markets are better off without all those casino regulars.
Will keep an eye open and extract as much as I can from their pockets. WTI is going to be insane I think until they get completely wiped out.
How do you can having negative remorse? The opposite? Because that's what I have for taking advantage of the situation.
Talk about a wealth transfer...
CNBC has an article on this, lmao they are calling those investors "retail tourists" I'm dying xd
If those people have so much money to lose and don't care what they buy, can I have some of it? Just send it directly to me...
www.cnbc.com
(They got a crude awakening hohoho)
Go figure...
Hey I just created a family business tracker, tracks the price of my poops and farts.
Poop price is dirt cheap, down 99%! And farts price went up.
Quick warn the retail investors! They don't want to miss this opportunity.
