WEAT...BUY...BUY...BUYThis one looks like a perfect buy to me! PB should be over and next explosive wave up should be starting...DXY appears to be topping...all perfect timing imo.
WEAT trade ideas
Weat etf vs SPY etfAccording to the ratio chart we should be close to a reversal here. If we do start rallying again it will take more spy to equal a share of the weat etf. After a long term base like this, the breakout rarely fails although a retest of the breakout is common.
As I said before, I think the inflation trade on AG commodities is about to start up again - regardless of what CPI says on Wednesday.
WEAT - Massive double top short opportunity using wheat etfDouble top
Volume profile showing a lot of supply
Seasonal data favors downside until mid September
Plan your trades before executing the trade. How much are you willing to bet? Where will you get out? How will you lock in profits?
Risk: 60 bps
Profit Protection: 3-Day Trailing Stop Rule (Peter Brandt)
You don't need to know what's going to happen next to make money ~Mark Douglas
Anything can happen ~Mark Douglas
WEAT Continues to Grind LowerWEAT continues to trend lower, alongside corn and soybean prices. Many of these charts have turned bearish as funds look to trim back some of their historically long positions. Weather will continue to be a key factor going forward, as of now, it looks favorable which may be adding to the pressure. July options expiration is tomorrow, a lot of open interest at 750 for corn and 16.00 for july beans.
WEAT UpdateSlowly crushing all levels put out previously
There is absolutely nothing going against this trade:
1. Inflation is positive for the price
2. Logistics and all of the shipping BS is positive
3. Winter is coming...can harvest more supply until next year
4. What am I missing?
5. You know what happens after you put a claw like looking rounding bottom like this?
It is just getting started. Plenty of notice given.
WEAT Breaking Below SupportWEAT is breaking down as grain futures get hit hard following a long holiday weekend. July Chicago wheat is currently down 35 cents. July KC Wheat is down 49 cents. We write daily grain commentary and have noted many times over the last few months that a lot of the Bullish news is already known and baked into the cake. No new news to feed the Bulls could trigger additional long liquidation.
$WEAT demonstrating strength with a DTL break and higher low $WEAT is looking really good here, showing classic VCP characteristics with volume dry up prior to a move up. Whilst not a true high tight flag (77% increase in 20d rather than 100%) the correction from the high point of the flag pole (25%) does fit this particular trade set up. Price and volume have been tightening nicely in the flag, with increased volume and price drift since mid-May. In spite of an extremely red day for the wider market, $WEAT managed to make a higher low, resulting in a downward trendline break
The wider macroeconomic environment could help this trade immensely; the main wheat producers globally are China, Russia, the Ukraine, the US and the EU and each is likely to produce and/or export less for various reasons:
Russia/Ukraine: Account for 30% of global wheat production, the current war is likely to dampen production and exports
The EU is experiencing poor growing conditions with droughts and higher than average temperatures
There's also the issue of fertilisers, which require natural gas to produce (Russia is also the world's largest producer of fertiliser) and harvesting the crop, which requires oil - both are at all time high prices with no signs of coming down soon
WEAT ETV To Play The Future Price of WheatWEAT's price, an ETV which trades wheat futures, is positioned to keep increasing as the horrible war in Ukraine rages on.
I accumulated this back at the $6.5 - $7 price level as a response to the decrease in fertilizer (thank you China for hoarding and mismanaging) and increases in crop disruption due to climate change related disasters. As you can see, it was chugging along nicely within the channel I drew back in Sept. I was expecting the continuation of nice returns as I've been playing the top and bottom of the channel. I had no idea that the #1 and #5 producers of wheat would go to war before spring planting and now we can expect the price of wheat and wheat futures to sky rocket. There is supply side destruction for at least one year that is being priced in right now but the decrease in fertilizer and climate disruption effecting the rest of the producers has not. Where the market hasn't yet priced something in, there is profit to be made.
Wheat and thus WEAT's price has open skies once it breaks through the $12.65 level and the broader cup, of the cup and handle formation it has been forming for years, will be put in at $24.65, then down to put in the handle, reset and then put in a big impulsive wave up.
WEAT FailureThe WEAT ETF has taken a sharp turn lower over the last two days as wheat futures continue to sell off of on long liquidation. It's important to note that the WEAT ETF is comprised of different wheat futures contracts, which may not be a 1:1 correlation with the front month contract. This was especially noticeable on the initial rally in February, where front month futures continued to trade limit up, while deferred contracts were trading lower, acting as a drag on the WEAT etf.
WEAT , LONG, RE-ENTRYRe- entered WEAT on todays soft close above my ema's
Concerns here would be some gap risk but we do see some nice range contraction on chart and I think that the tape is probably on our side here , saw some pretty massive level 2 time and sales actions before the fed announced today on my related holds (UGA and DBC) that I found very interesting too .
*There was an order for 67 K that stood out on DBC time and sales that stood out pre announcement from fed and a similar one within minutes of that on UGA that was also abnormally large.
Stop :10.49
PT :11.21
going to sell half there at 2R and de risk it if possible .
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WEAT , LONG Looks like WEAT might need to build a base here but I dont really know at this point we see a climax of sorts but the trend is still intact , no significant change of structure for me yet, so took this entry . If it doesn't work I am willing to re attempt as long as trend theme is intact . Time will tell .
Another aftermarket buy ...
In at 10.37
Stop - 10.97
De risk - 11.05
Legend -
IBO - initial BO
BO- Breakout
E - Entry I like ..
WEAT BO of triangle; gapped up to VWAP middle of conso boxAs I posted a day or two ago, I have an upside bias with only a small retracement. Although a BO/ gap up from the descending triangle is a positive sign, WEAT has just returned to the mean finishing the day with an indecision candle right in the middle of a DARVAS BOX. It may still go either way.
Wait for reaction tomorrow at the anchored VWAP from the Jan low. However a better entry would be the BO of this BOX making a higher high or a retracement to the lower box.
Not trading advice.
WEAT retraced 50%; watch for BO of triangleI made this on the request of someone who shorted WEAT.
WEAT, like other commodities oil & gold, is still trying to BO of a triangle. Watch carefully which direction is breaks.
Although I think the Ukraine crisis is far from over, WEAT may still have some room to retrace specially when inflation takes a breather before continuing upwards. WEAT so far retraced FIB 50%, the next 2 supports are the 61.8% & 78.6%( less likely).
Zooming out to see the big picture, WEAT has yet to reach a higher 68.8% FIBO from top to bottom.
Just maybe in the long term, WEAT is going up to complete the neck of a CUP formation. With rising inflation coupled with supply crisis, I think there is still more upside.
Not trading advice
