My Target for MATSA is 10x within 2 yearsHi, thanks for viewing. I just added another 12% to my MATSA position today. I'm not ruling out adding more at this stage, but for now I'm quite happy.
My valuation of Matsa is simply very different to the market presently, maybe I can get some comments and discussion going.
A few months they released a forecast for free cashflow from their Devon open-pit mining operations that is using a third-party mining Company and toll milling. This was in their RIU presentation in May 2025. They are expecting 50,000 ounces of gold at 4.6g/t over 18 months. At AUD5000/oz they project free cashflow at AUD95.5 million. Gold today sits at AUD5165/oz / USD3365 and appears to have strong underlying support. Goldman Sachs is projecting USD4000/oz by mid-year 2026, so in this environment of tail-winds for gold it is difficult to see the Devon open-pit returning less than AUD100mil, in all likelihood it will be substantially more.
At 95m over 18 months is AUD5,277,777 per month or AUD63.33mil in 12 months. If the Company was valued at 7.5 times *free cashflow* (a relatively normal valuation in mining - low-side I use a multiple of 5 and high side I use 10) this would potentially put the Market Cap of Matsa at $475mil. Roughly, 475m/ current market cap of 56.2m = 8.45 times upside.
This is before considering the sale of the vast majority of their Lake Carey project to Anglo Gold. That deal has had Anglo pay 5m in deposits, has already gone unconditional. There are two more deposit payments of 1.5m coming, but the final decision has not been made on the deal i.e. the exercise price hasn't been 'locked in.' At (1.875 times the gold price) x 936,000 ounces = an additional payment of AUD90,645,750 using todays gold price (plus an additional 'up to' AUD20mil for additional ounces discovered on the tenement (no time limit).
Potentially, another 93m will come in from the Anglo deal. How do I adjust my valuation to account for this influx in free cash? Serious question. Absolute worst case scenario is that zero multiple applies (as it isn't actually earnings from operations), so my projected market cap of $475m would just add an additional 93m = 568m / 56.2m = 10.1 upside for Matsa over the next 18 to 24 months.
I feel that Anglo is more likely than not to finalise the sale, and do so well within the 18 month window (better to exercise at USD3300 gold than at USD4000 gold - better for Anglo).
The only thing that concerns me is that doesn't leave Matsa with much in the pipeline after Devon is depleted. Fortitude North (retained by Matsa) is yet to be defined as an underground resource - despite some rather interesting intercepts. There do appear to be a number of high-grade intercepts adjacent to the Devon pit, with dirt up to 60g/ton just to the north-west and 5g/ton dirt north-east and east of the pit shell. Definite potential for Devon to be expanded. Will it be expanded and by how much is unknown at this stage. However, they appear to be a small resourceful Company that is very good at identifying and developing drilling targets. They will be able to do a lot more when cashed up vs now. So, I am investing for the near-term, with potential for it to become a long-term hold.
Thanks for taking the time to read all that. Maybe you get a sense of my disbelief of how cheap Matsa is. Everyone is apparently waiting until the last minute to buy when the big announcement is released. I'm just buying while it is crazy cheap. Best of luck everyone.
