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AUDJPY trade ideas

AUD/JPY – Double Top Signals Potential Bearish MoveAUD/JPY (4H) is showing a strong double top pattern at the resistance zone (96.9 – 97.1), followed by a break of structure (BOS) and rejection from the supply area. Price has also filled the fair value gap and is showing signs of weakness with a potential downside target near 94.80. If the bearish momentum continues, we could see further decline toward support at 94.00 – 94.20. Key confluences: Double top formation BOS confirmation Supply zone rejection MACD bearish momentum 📌 Trade Idea: Watch for a pullback to the 96.4 – 96.6 zone for possible short entries. Targets: 94.80, then 94.00. 💡 Always manage risk properly and follow your trading plan.
Short
by ProfitMagnet-Pro
17
AUD/JPY at Decision Point – Bulls or Bears to Take Control?1. COT Analysis JPY: Net shorts among Non-Commercials increased (+5.3K shorts, -1.8K longs), indicating growing bearish pressure on the yen. Commercials, however, heavily accumulated longs (+13.5K), suggesting that large players may be hedging or positioning for a potential yen rebound. AUD: Still heavily net short, with Non-Commercials reducing longs (-2.5K) and slightly increasing shorts (+2.9K). This reflects a continued speculative bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar. → COT Implication: The divergence between a heavily shorted JPY and an AUD already under bearish pressure can lead to increased volatility. Without supportive macro drivers for the AUD, the pair may struggle to sustain upward moves. 2. Seasonality JPY: Historically weak in August (20-year average: -0.61%), with sharper declines in the last 5 and 2 years. This tends to favor AUD/JPY upside in the first part of the month. AUD: Slightly positive in the past 2 years (+0.01%), but negative over longer periods. → Short-term seasonality is moderately supportive of upside, but historical patterns don’t back a strong directional trend. 3. Sentiment Retail positioning: 63% short vs 37% long. Historically, retail traders often find themselves on the wrong side of major moves, making this setup moderately bullish for AUD/JPY in the short term. 4. Technical Analysis Weekly Supply Zone: 96.88–98.77. Price is currently below this area after a strong rejection in recent weeks. Weekly Demand Zone: 94.90–95.00, previously tested with a bullish reaction. RSI: Neutral zone, no overbought/oversold signals, but slightly tilted downward on the weekly timeframe. Price Action: Current candle shows a recovery attempt after a bearish rejection, but unless the weekly closes above 96.92, the risk of another drop toward 95 remains high. 5. Trading Bias Bullish Scenario: Weekly break & close above 96.92 with volume → Target 97.80 / 98.50. Bearish Scenario: Weekly rejection below 96.90 and daily break of 95.80 → Target 95.00 / 94.50. Macro Context: In risk-on environments, AUD tends to outperform JPY; in risk-off, the yen rebounds quickly. 📌 Summary: Short-term neutral-to-bullish bias driven by contrarian retail sentiment and moderately bullish seasonality, but 96.92 remains a critical resistance that must be broken to unlock more upside. Failure here could send the pair back to 95.00, with risk of breakdown if macro sentiment worsens.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
AUDJPY - One More Bearish Impulse Soon!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈AUDJPY has been overall bearish trading within the falling broadening wedge pattern marked in red and it is currently retesting the upper bound of the channel acting as a non-horizontal resistance. Moreover, the green zone is a strong supply. 📚 As per my trading style: As #AUDJPY retests the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TheSignalyst
5
AUDJPY-Bullish🔗 Macro Confluence (as of Aug 18, 2025): AUD Fundamentals: Aussie supported by risk-on tone and commodity stability (iron ore prices firm) RBA likely to hold or slow hikes – neutral to mild bullish JPY Fundamentals: BoJ remains dovish with intervention fears fading Japanese economy showing soft inflation and stagnant wage growth Seasonals & COT: AUD positioning rising gradually Yen remains short-heavy → bullish cross-pair bias After creating a double bottom, price broke the minor structure high (HL) near 95.80 Price now pulling back for a possible retest of previous structure + fib zone Entry at 0.618 aligns with: Fib support Former resistance turned support Bullish momentum on RSI
Long
by Shluterpluter
AUD/JPY Rebounds Ahead of Monthly LowAUD/JPY rebounds ahead of the monthly low (94.91) to snap the series of lower highs and lows from last week. In turn, AUD/JPY may attempt to test the monthly high (97.07), with a breach of the July high (97.43) opening up bringing the 97.90 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) to 98.30 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) zone on the radar. Next area of interest comes around the January high (99.17), but failure to hold above the 95.10 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 95.20 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region may push AUD/JPY toward the July low (93.97). --- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
AUDJPY – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W33 | D15 | Y25📊 AUDJPY – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W33 | D15 | Y25 Daily Forecast 🔍📅 Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈 Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭. It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias. This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us. 📈 Risk Management Protocols 🔑 Core principles: Max 1% risk per trade Only execute at pre-identified levels Use alerts, not emotion Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2 🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk. 🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight "Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants." Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work. FX:AUDJPY
Long
by JCFRGNT
AUD/JPY Approaches Monthly LowAUD/USD gives back the advance from the start of the week to approach the monthly low (94.91), and a move/close below the 95.10 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 95.20 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region may lead to a test of the July low (93.97). Next area of interest comes in around 92.80 (50% Fibonacci extension) to 93.30 (23.6% Fibonacci extension), but the decline in AUD/JPY may turn out to be temporary should it defend the rebound from the monthly low (94.91). Need a move above the monthly high (97.07) to bring the July high (97.43) on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around 97.90 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) to 98.30 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). --- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?AUD/JPY has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 96.14 1st Support: 95.04 1st Resistance: 96.67 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
AUDJPY – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | D18 | Y25📊 AUDJPY – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | D18 | Y25 Daily Forecast 🔍📅 Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈 Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭. It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias. This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us. 📈 Risk Management Protocols 🔑 Core principles: Max 1% risk per trade Only execute at pre-identified levels Use alerts, not emotion Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2 🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk. 🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight "Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants." Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work. FX:AUDJPY
Long
by JCFRGNT
AUDJPY – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | D19 | Y25📊 AUDJPY – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | D19 | Y25 Daily Forecast 🔍📅 Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈 Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭. It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias. This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us. 📈 Risk Management Protocols 🔑 Core principles: Max 1% risk per trade Only execute at pre-identified levels Use alerts, not emotion Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2 🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk. 🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight "Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants." Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work. FX:AUDJPY
Long
by JCFRGNT
AUDJPY – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W33 | D14 | Y25📊 AUDJPY – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W33 | D14 | Y25 Daily Forecast 🔍📅 Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈 Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭. It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias. This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us. 📈 Risk Management Protocols 🔑 Core principles: Max 1% risk per trade Only execute at pre-identified levels Use alerts, not emotion Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2 🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk. 🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight "Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants." Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work. FX:AUDJPY
Long
by JCFRGNT
Bearish reversal off swing high resistance?AUD/JPY is rising towards the pivot, which acts as a swing high resistance and could potentially drop to the 50% Fibonacci support. Pivot: 96.93 1st Support: 95.80 1st Resistance: 97.42 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Bullish bounce off pullback support?AUD/JPY has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 96.14 Why we like it: There is a pullback support. Stop loss: 95.04 Why we like it: There is a swing low support. Take profit: 97.22 Why we like it: There is a multi swing high resistance. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets