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Will AUD/JPY Break 97.5? Bullish Thief Plan & Fundamental Edge🔑 AUD/JPY “Aussie vs Yen” | Thief Market Plan 🎭 (Swing/Day Trade) 📌 Plan Overview Bias: Bullish (Pending Order Plan) Entry Idea: Breakout above 97.500 ⚡ Moving Average Dynamic Line Thief Layer Strategy: Multiple Buy Limit Orders → 96.500 | 97.000 | 97.500 | 97.700 You can increase layer entries based on your own plan. ✅ Always confirm with breakout before entry. 🔔 Set an alert in TradingView to catch breakout moves easily. Stop Loss (SL): Thief SL suggested near 96.300 (after breakout level). Note: This is not a fixed rule—adjust SL according to your own risk management. Take Profit (TP): Resistance barricade at 99.000 (overbought + liquidity trap zone). Note: Escape with profits before the police barricade! 🎯 🧭 Why This Plan? (Thief OG Strategy + Market Analysis) 📊 AUD/JPY Key Data (08 Sept 2025) Prev. Close: 97.35 Day’s Range: 96.82 – 97.35 Change: -0.44 (-0.45%) 😰 Fear & Greed Sentiment CNN Fear & Greed Index → 51.5 (Neutral) Market momentum balanced, mild caution amid geopolitical risk. 🏛 Retail vs Institutional Sentiment 🧑‍💼 Retail Traders → Bullish 60% | Bearish 40% Retail leaning bullish thanks to AUD resilience. 🏦 Institutional Outlook → Bullish bias (AUD strength vs BOJ dovishness) Concerns: Japanese political uncertainty (PM resignation). Macro Score: 7/10 in favor of AUD. 🌍 Fundamental & Macro Drivers ✅ AUD Strengths 🔥 Inflation hot (July CPI +2.8% y/y) 🏠 Household spending growth (+5.1% y/y) 🏦 RBA keeping policy steady (hawkish tilt) ❌ JPY Weaknesses 🕊️ BOJ dovish stance continues 🏛️ Political instability (PM resignation) 🚗 US auto tariff cuts pressuring JPY 🐂🐻 Market Outlook Bullish (Long) Score: 70% Bearish (Short) Score: 30% Summary: AUD/JPY shows bullish structure above 97.00, but caution on overbought signals after 10-day rally. ⚠️ Risks to Watch US NFP (Sept 12) → May drive USD/JPY flows. Overbought daily RSI signals. Geopolitical volatility (China & Ukraine). 🎯 Bottom Line AUD/JPY maintains a bullish bias 🟢 with fundamentals, sentiment, and Thief layering strategy supporting higher targets. 📌 Monitor 97.45–97.50 breakout zone → potential continuation toward 99.000. 🔗 Related Pairs to Watch FX:USDJPY | OANDA:AUDUSD | OANDA:EURJPY | OANDA:GBPJPY ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #audjpy #forex #swingtrade #daytrade #fundamentalanalysis #sentiment #thieftrader #forexanalysis #macromarket #currencytrading
Long
by The-Thief
AUDJPY | BullishHTF: Major highs have been broken, showing strong bullish momentum and confirming overall continuation intent. MTF: Price continues within bullish flow. After taking sell-side liquidity and mitigating an order block, I’m now watching for MTF CHoCH alignment. Once internal draw-on-liquidity (IDM) is cleared and a deeper reaction forms, I’ll shift focus to LTF for precision confirmation. LTF: When price taps the OB and drops toward lower intervals, I’ll look for a lower-high break and pullback to identify buy points within the bullish leg. Until then, we stay patient and follow smart money. 🧭
Long
by Juicemannn
AUDJPY — Buy the Retest?AUDJPY remains overall bullish inside a rising channel. Price is hovering above a 96.0–96.5 support zone, which previously acted as resistance and now aligns with the channel’s lower boundary, a solid confluence area. 🔑 Key levels Support: 96.0–96.5 (zone to watch for bullish rejection) Resistance: 98.5 then 100.0 (round number / channel upper band) 📊 Scenarios Bullish 📈 If price retests 96.0–96.5 and prints confirmation (higher low / bullish candle), I’ll look for longs toward 98.5 → 100.0. Bearish 📉 A daily close below 96.0 would invalidate the setup and open room toward the next liquidity pocket near the channel low. What’s your plan here => wait for the retest into 96s, or trade the continuation if momentum kicks in first? 🤔 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
3
AJ Bulls Raise A Flag As They Gap Up To Start The Week!Price on OANDA:AUDJPY has been consolidating down a Descending Channel for the past 3 weeks and after making a 38.2% Retracement of the 98.425 High, to open this week, Bulls created a huge gap up, breaking out of the Descending Channel! This Breakout confirms the Continuation Pattern, the Bull Flag! If Bulls are able to secure a close higher than 98.425 during this Breakout and are successful in a Retest in the 98 - 97.8 range, this could deliver potential Long opportunities as a Bull Flag Breakout and Retest Set-Up! Once we have a Valid Breakout and Successful Retest, the Price Target for the move will be into the Weekly Resistance that can be found in the 102 range from November Highs of 2024!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
AUD/JPYAUD/JPY Technical Analysis The price has been forming lower lows, but the RSI showed a bullish divergence, indicating that bearish momentum is weakening. At the same time, an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern has also developed, which is a strong bullish reversal signal. Entry Plan: The trade setup will be confirmed once the price breaks above the neckline of the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern. A potential long entry can be taken on the breakout, with Stop Loss placed below the right shoulder. Profit targets can be measured based on the neckline breakout projection.
Long
by Mr3Percent
Forex Weekly Review. And thoughts on the upcoming week.Despite a US government shutdown, the S&P hit fresh all time highs during the week starting Monday 29 September. It wasn't quite so straightforward for the currencies, which did appear to be functioning according to 'interest rate speculation', particularly the JPY, which was strong for most of the week, due to growing speculation the BOJ wil hike rates in October. Although, governor UEDA dented those thoughts with 'dovish comments' on Friday. Which could very well set up a resumption of JPY short trades this coming week. Particularly as I keep reading that new LDP leader TAKACHI will be seen as 'dovish' for the JPY. One final JPY thought is to note the (inverse) correlation between the NIKKEI and JPY, is noticeably prevelent at the moment. The USD spent most of the week on the back foot, likely not helped by the government shutdown. But also as the market swings back towards October and December rate cuts. From the limited US data we did get, Friday's below expectations ISM data adds credence to a dovish FED. And I begin the new week with with a tentative USD short bias. The CAD also continues to be a contender for the 'currency to short', thanks to the ongoing dovish BOC, combined with the falling price of oil as OPEC continues to signal more oil production. The AUD had a merry go round of a week, also linked to interest rate speculation. Beginning the week on the front foot thanks to the ongoing hawkishness of the RBA. But hawkish sentiment was put to the test by soft data. It was also noticeable the AUD dropped alongside the falling price of iron ore. On a personal note, it was a week of two trades. On Tuesday a EUR USD long when the USD was weak and post German inflation data. Thursday's AUD NZD long wasn't my finest hour, I thought I knew best but should have waited for more 'price confirmation'. Indecently, I do still think the trajectory of AUD NZD is up, but I need to see 'nice 4hr support'. Also , the RBNZ could play a big role this coming week. I begin the new week wondering if we'll get any US data of note. But all in all, I have a tentatively bullish bias for the 'risk environment' (particularly if middle east peace talks go as Mr Trump suggests). And I also have a bullish bias for 'hawkish central banks'.
Long
by johnelfedforexblog
AUDJPY.....IS GOING FOR A RIDE? I THINK SOHey Amazing People! My T.A. of AJ is pretty simplistic, we have seen a rejection to the downside and what seems to be a double bottom in the making on the 1H time frame! Showing me that we could see a heavy push to the upside, also taking out a key R-Zone! Meaning that there is a TON of avaiable room to run up and orders that need to be eaten up! So I believe if we have a break of the current high we can see a rally to Price points such as 97.580 or even 97.660-97.728! I am worried about AUS news reaction on tuesday but we can only wait and see but either way the currency strength are rather equal so it sould just continue with trend. This is just my thoughts and logging but tell me what you think? I trade with binary options so I let price tell me which way to go so if it follows this im going to sell high and buy low! If price gives me a push to the downside well dang haha looks like we looking for sell ops!! ;P but let me know your thoughts or if you feel like this could be correct as well!
Long
by TaYbTrading
AUDJPYTHE CURRENT TRADING INFORMATION SURROUNDING AUDJPY AND THE CARRY TRADE ADVANTAGE. The current Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is Michele Bullock, who began her tenure on September 18, 2023. She is the first female governor in the RBA's history and has a strong background in economics and central banking. As of early October 2025, the Australia 10-year government bond yield (AU10Y) is approximately 4.34%. The yield recently showed a slight increase to this level amid mixed economic data and continued uncertainty about future monetary policy moves by the RBA. The current cash rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as of October 2025 is 3.60%. The RBA has maintained this rate following a series of rate cuts earlier in the year, aiming to manage inflation and support economic growth. SUMMERY AU10Y=4.34-4.389% CLOSE OF FRIDAY RBA RATE =3.60% BOJ( BANK OF JAPAN) Current Governor: Kazuo Ueda (since April 2023) Governor Ueda has emphasized a cautious approach, keeping options open for further interest rate hikes as inflation targets are on track but global uncertainties remain. Current Policy Interest Rate: The BOJ's short-term policy interest rate is currently maintained at 0.5%. There is market speculation about a possible gradual increase to around 0.75% by late October 2025, depending on economic data and inflation outlook. Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield (JP10Y): As of early October 2025, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond is approximately 1.67%, near its highest level since 2008, reflecting expectations of tighter monetary policy and improved economic conditions. SUMMERY JP10Y=1.659% BOJ RATE =0.5% AUDJPY INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIAL The interest rate differential between AUD and JPY is a key factor influencing the AUD/JPY currency pair. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds a cash rate around 3.60% following recent rate cuts and monetary policy easing. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains a very low policy rate near 0.50%, with cautious moves towards potential increases but remaining significantly lower than Australia’s rate. Impact of Interest Rate Differential: With the RBA rate substantially higher than the BOJ rate, the interest rate differential favors the Australian dollar, encouraging carry trades where investors borrow in low-yielding JPY to invest in higher-yielding AUD assets. However, recent market volatility, BOJ’s cautious stance, and risk sentiment cause fluctuations in this rate-driven advantage. AUD/JPY Market Snapshot: DEMAND FLOOR FOR BUY WILL BE 96.453-96.719 TARGET 1 =100.373 TARGET2= 105.273 Summary: Factor Value/Status Australia Cash Rate (RBA) ~3.60% Japan Policy Rate (BOJ) ~0.50% AUD/JPY Exchange Rate ~97.3 - 97.8 Interest Rate Differential AUD favored by ~3.1% The sizable rate differential supports the Australian dollar over the yen, but market dynamics can influence short-term price action. WATCH BOJ POLICY SHIFT,BECAUSE ANY RATE HIKE FLIPS THE SCRIPT.CARRY TRADERS DONT TAKE LOSSES . #AUJPY #YEN #BOJ #RBA
Long
by Shavyfxhub
AUDJPY 4H – Supply to Demand PlayPrice recently broke structure (BOS) to the downside, showing weakness after rejecting higher levels. We now have a clear supply zone at 97.80 – 98.00, where price is likely to react if it retraces. An imbalance (IMB) has also formed, aligning with supply, making this zone a high-probability area for shorts. My expectation is for price to tap into supply, reject, and continue lower into the 96.40 – 96.60 demand zone. Key Levels: Supply: 97.80 – 98.00 Demand: 96.40 – 96.60 Bias: Bearish until demand is tested I’ll be watching how price reacts at supply for confirmation before executing a short.
Short
by Jabu_Souls07
Friday 1 October: Post NFP thoughts...oh hang on! All in all, it's been a bit of a strange week, the US government shutdown hasn't helped. Although I do get a sense the currencies are behaving according to interest rate speculation. Exhibited by the JPY, which spent most of the week on the front foot (October hike expected), until governor UEDA sent a dovish message (Loose monetary policy helps businessess = October hike uncertainty). And it's pleasing to see the JPY and USD end the week softly, which hopefully bodes well for next week. The CAD is also under pressure (dovish BOC and falling oil price due to production hikes). The AUD has had a mixed week, starting with a hawkish RBA but soft data (and falling iron ore price) put the breaks on AUD positivity. I do think yesterday's trade was a case of myself being welded to an idea (AUD NZD long) and thinking I knew best, I disregarded the negativity surrounding the AUD at the time. I should have waited for signs of a more prominent reversal before placing the trade. All in all, it's a week I'm glad to see the back of, hopefully the government shutdown will be resolved soon. Weekly Review to follow, plus now the currencies are starting to behave a little more according to fundamentals, rather than just the 'risk environment', I will very soon get round to a 'currency overview'. But hopefully you have your own 'currency overview' in mind. (Feel free to let me know your thoughts). Wishing you a lovely weekend, I'm currently watching the trees dance with 60mph winds, expecting I'll be collecting my recycling up from the neighbours lawn in the morning.
Long
by johnelfedforexblog
AUDJPY Daily Forecast -Q4 | W40 | D3 | Y25|📅 Q4 | W40 | D3 | Y25| 📊 AUDJPY Daily Forecast 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀 FX:AUDJPY
Short
by JCFRGNT
AUD/JPY - Bearish Rejection from Key Zone📉 AUD/JPY Analysis 📉 Price is currently testing a key structure level after rejecting the upper zone. If bearish pressure continues, we could see a potential drop toward the highlighted Key Zones below. 🚨 🔑 Key Levels: Resistance Zone: 96.10 – 96.30 Support Zones: 97.40 / 97.25 ⚠️ Watch how price reacts around the resistance zone. A strong rejection could confirm the move toward the downside targets. 💬 Share your thoughts below – Do you expect AUD/JPY to continue bearish momentum or bounce back up? #AUDJPY #ForexTrading #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #FX #TradingView #ForexCommunity #ChartAnalysis #BearishSetup ✅ If you found this useful, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, COMMENT 💬, and FOLLOW 🔔 for more analysis! 📌 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Please do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Short
by AM_AlphaTrading
12
Bearish drop off?AUD/JPY has rejected off the resistance level, which is an overlap resistance and could potentially drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 97.26 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Stop loss: 98.26 Why we like it: There is a swing high resistance level. Take profit: 96.13 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by Vantage
AUDJPY sideways consolidation support at 96.80The AUDJPY currency pair continues to exhibit a bullish price action bias, supported by a sustained rising trend. Recent intraday movement reflects a sideways consolidation, suggesting potential continuation of the broader uptrend. Key Technical Level: 96.80 This level marks the prior consolidation range and now acts as pivotal support. A corrective pullback toward 96.80 followed by a bullish rejection would reinforce the bullish trend, targeting the next resistance levels at: 97.80 – Near-term resistance 98.00 – Minor swing high 98.30 – Longer-term bullish objective On the other hand, a decisive daily close below 96.80 would invalidate the bullish setup, shifting the outlook to bearish in the short term. This could trigger a deeper retracement toward: 96.60 – Initial support 96.40 – Key downside target Conclusion: As long as 96.80 holds as support, the technical outlook remains bullish, favouring long positions on dips. A confirmed break below this level would signal a shift in sentiment and open the door to a corrective pullback phase. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
2
Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistanceAUD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support ,which is an overlap support. Pivot: 97.67 1st Support: 96.68 1st Resistance: 98.30 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by IC Markets
1