AUD:SGD Inverse Head & shoulders, Macro long, +47% TargetMacro change in AUD vs SGD, golden pocket reacted nicely for a higher low & beginning of up move for the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulder. There are 3 decent trades here: Inverse H&S, Algo and pitchfork reversion. looking for a pullback for an easy entry with tight stop but could also enter here for a decent R:R
Key points:
Reversion to the mean @ +22% - 7.3R with 80% probability as long as the pivot holds. target increases the longer it takes to hit.
Algo target @ +22% - 7.3R
Trade to the neckline @ +10% - 3.3R
Inverse head and shoulders target @ +47% 15.3R
Waiting for a retrace and local 0.618 enables tighter stops and a much better R:R
The trade:
Entry 1: here - 0.91949
Entry 2: after a local retrace, enter @ 0.168fib
Entry 3 once inverse H&S has confirmed enter on the re-test of neckline
Target 1: neckline ~ $1.02
Target 2: Algo $1.12621
Target 3: Inverse H&S $1.35258
Stop 1: 0.89144 - below local 0.65fib, move up until local high is established
Stop 2: after breakout, monthly close below neckline - may give a better exit on a retest fro below neckline
Risk management: position should risk no more than 2% of account balance for a drawdown.
If given the opportunity with additional .618 retracements add to position & move stop to new .707. Take profit at targets and re enter on pullbacks.
D.Y.O.R. DO NOT BLINDLY TAKE THESE TRADES.
Never Trust. Verify. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS.
This is not financial advice. These are just my observations.
Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds.
Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key. Capital preservation above all else.
